{"id":7840,"date":"2023-05-22T10:01:30","date_gmt":"2023-05-22T08:01:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-05-22\/"},"modified":"2023-05-22T10:01:30","modified_gmt":"2023-05-22T08:01:30","slug":"2023-05-22","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-05-22\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-05-22"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:57 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Storm is coming \u270a
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/azovsouth\/status\/1660383152769040386?s=46&t=pQb2mOiCiIrCA2-jZJSSwg<\/a>
\n(l\u00e5ter lite v\u00e5ldsammare \u00e4n \u201dspring is coming\u201d f\u00e5r jag nog s\u00e4ga).<\/p>\n

Vi diskuterade v\u00e4l f\u00f6rra veckan att UA roterade f\u00f6rband kring Bakhmut och Gregg f\u00f6reslog nu att roteringen skulle vara klar.<\/p>\n

Klischivka \u00e4r v\u00e4l \u00e5tertaget i n\u00e4rtid kan man d\u00e5 gissa.<\/p>\n

Linjen Opytne \u2013 s\u00f6dra Zaitseve blir intressant att se, lite oklart vilka f\u00f6rband som bef\u00e4ster den men \u00e4r det VDV kan den v\u00e4l h\u00e5lla lite l\u00e4ngre. Enligt Defmon har dom dock dragit bort en del av VDV till Svitlodarsk \u2013 Popasnalinjen.<\/p>\n

Hursomhelst b\u00f6r man jobba bort motivation hos grop-ryssarna med enorma m\u00e4ngder v\u00e4lriktad indirekt eld \u00f6ver denna linje.<\/p>\n

Bebyggelsen i Bakhmut \u00e4r helt irrelevant, liknelsen vid att sl\u00e5ss om det b\u00e4sta bordet p\u00e5 Titanic \u00e4r sl\u00e5ende.<\/p>\n

Gregg skriver att dom trycker p\u00e5 mot Berkhivka N om bebyggelsen i Bakhmut, det \u00e4r mer \u00e4n vad vi ser fr\u00e5n andra k\u00e4llor.<\/p>\n

Det b\u00f6r b\u00f6rja r\u00f6ra p\u00e5 sig i Bakhmut denna vecka (igen).<\/p>\n

S\u00e5 h\u00e4r l\u00e5ngt \u00e4r det en enorm framg\u00e5ng framf\u00f6rallt eftersom RU har f\u00e5tt dra f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n flera olika fronter f\u00f6r att kunna stabilisera och UA har anfallit i numer\u00e4rt underl\u00e4ge men utnyttjat sina f\u00f6rm\u00e5gor ypperligt.<\/p>\n

Man har dedikerat 4-6 bataljonsstyrkor och har s\u00e5ledes mycket stora reserver f\u00f6r att forts\u00e4tta offensiva operationer vid Bakhmutfronten, dom har runt 20st brigader vid den fronten totalt.<\/p>\n

Norra Luhansk diskuterade vi v\u00e4l f\u00f6rra veckan, och MXT var f\u00f6rst ut, att RU b\u00f6rjat r\u00f6ra p\u00e5 sig i det omr\u00e5det. Det var bl\u00e4nkare om f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar fr\u00e5n twittergeneralerna.<\/p>\n

Som avledning \u00e4r det inte s\u00e5 dumt och det \u00e4r kortaste v\u00e4gen f\u00f6r f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar fr\u00e5n Ryssland, ett kort RU b\u00f6r spela.
\nUA har spelat sina kort mycket v\u00e4l s\u00e5 h\u00e4r l\u00e5ngt \u2013 st\u00e4llt till oreda i Bakhmut och slagit h\u00e5rt mot truppf\u00f6rflyttningar.<\/p>\n

Vi f\u00f6ljer ju snudd p\u00e5 i realtid stormshadows f\u00f6r\u00f6delse och dom levererar ju en mycket st\u00f6rre sm\u00e4ll \u00e4n vad dom hade tillg\u00e5ng till tidigare \u2013 en stor sm\u00e4ll med mycket d\u00f6d.<\/p>\n

Nu ryker det brigadstabsplatser dagligen och en brigad utan att n\u00e5gon svarar i f\u00e4ltapan blir v\u00e4l enligt rysk tradition passiva och \u00f6ppnar m\u00e4skdunken?<\/p>\n

UA har allts\u00e5 resurssatt v\u00e5roffensiven och ut\u00f6ver flyget som ju beh\u00f6vs direkt s\u00e5 h\u00e5ller man nu p\u00e5 och g\u00f6r rundorna f\u00f6r att resurss\u00e4tta en h\u00f6stoffensiv (om det beh\u00f6vs\u2026). Fler l\u00e4nder levererar alltmer och UA kommer st\u00e5 \u00e4nnu starkare i h\u00f6st efter lerv\u00e4llingen om det beh\u00f6vs \u2013 allt tal om ammunitionsbrist och vapenbrist \u00e4r bakom oss \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Den h\u00e4r har varit uppe av flera tr\u00e5d-legendarer men piloter b\u00f6rjar bli bristvara nu ocks\u00e5. Underskatta inte f\u00f6rbr\u00e5ken innan de dagliga genomg\u00e5ngarna vilka som skall tvingas flyga in i UA artparaply, det svingas nog vilt.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/defmon3\/status\/1660525071713157121?s=46&t=3d_0Czy-2CdZ5O6qM5hGKg<\/a><\/p>\n

En liten kalibrering ang\u00e5ende f\u00f6rluster \u2013 <\/p>\n

Biden sa 100 000st i Bakhmut, han syftar p\u00e5 totala f\u00f6rlusterna.<\/p>\n

Reznikov sa 70 000st i Bakhmut, ocks\u00e5 totala f\u00f6rlusterna.<\/p>\n

En Wagnersoldat sa \u201dtens of thousands\u201d i f\u00f6rluster vilket \u00e4r ett kraftigt plural.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1660368812649185286?s=46&t=pQb2mOiCiIrCA2-jZJSSwg<\/a><\/p>\n

Det f\u00f6resl\u00e5r att RU tagit f\u00f6rluster i kanske Reznikovs siffra?<\/p>\n

En enda front av 5-6st, man kan ju gissa vad de totala f\u00f6rlusterna varit h\u00e4r \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Lers\u00e4songen i h\u00f6st \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 slutet p\u00e5 v\u00e5roffensiven och det ligger absolut i UA intresse att inte b\u00f6rja f\u00f6r sent h\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Fas 1 har ju startat \u2013 Bakhmutoffensiven.<\/p>\n

Fas 2 b\u00f6r inte ligga l\u00e5ngt borta d\u00e5 man v\u00e4l rimligen b\u00f6r starta upp inom ett f\u00f6nster n\u00e4r RU \u00e4r skakade. Vi vet ju alla hur den startar.<\/p>\n

Var den andra reserv-arm\u00e9k\u00e5ren dyker upp n\u00e5gonstans \u00e4r v\u00e4l det riktigt intressanta.<\/p>\n

Det p\u00e5g\u00e5r ocks\u00e5 rimligen intensiva diplomatiska f\u00f6rs\u00f6k att f\u00e5r RU att l\u00e4mna Ukraina. En tanke som slog mig men som \u00e4r lite f\u00f6r mycket \u00f6nsket\u00e4nkande vore om RU utropar seger \u00f6ver att ha tagit Bakhmut och helt l\u00e4mnar Ukraina. Den \u00e4r f\u00f6r l\u00e5ngt ned p\u00e5 bubblarlistan f\u00f6r att tas p\u00e5 allvar \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Det kommer inte bli en lugn vecka och jag tror absolut inte vi skall underskatta 9 och 10 arm\u00e9k\u00e5rerna.
\nRU har ocks\u00e5 sk\u00f6tt sitt f\u00f6rsvar uppe vid Bakhmut uruselt och har dessutom inte f\u00f6rband att t\u00e4cka upp allt f\u00f6rsvar dom byggt \u2013 svaga punkter finns det gott om.
\nUA har naturligtvis under\u00e4ttelsel\u00e4get i realtid i vanlig ordning.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:14 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Hohoho \ud83d\ude00\ud83d\udc47<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1660540206548647936?s=46&t=3d_0Czy-2CdZ5O6qM5hGKg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

F\u00f6rl\u00e5t men vad \u00e4r det h\u00e4r?<\/p>\n

Har Belgorod g\u00e5tt och frigjort sig fr\u00e5n oket?<\/p>\n

DEN s\u00e5g man inte komma.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1660560473933115394?s=46&t=3d_0Czy-2CdZ5O6qM5hGKg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:20 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Vi vet ju att Budanov har diskussioner med n\u00e4rliggande regioner men att kapa tr\u00e5den helt trodde man inte l\u00e5g p\u00e5 bordet.<\/p>\n

Oj om det st\u00e4mmer \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:28 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Nu springer jag iv\u00e4g rej\u00e4lt men vi vet fr\u00e5n Budanov-intervjun att de fyra regionerna kring UA hoppas dom kan bli UA-v\u00e4nliga eller demilitariserade. En bufferzon och s\u00e4kerligen lovar dom handel i utbyte.<\/p>\n

S\u00e5 l\u00e5ngt allt v\u00e4l, en karta och n\u00e5gra diskussioner med potentiella allierade.<\/p>\n

Nu har UA anfallit en gr\u00e4nspostering p\u00e5 ryskt territorium \u2013 ocks\u00e5 enligt planen \u2013 projicera ett hot mot Belgorod.<\/p>\n

Sen kom det video fr\u00e5n ryska soldater som strider f\u00f6r UA att Belgorod skall resa sig mot ockupanterna.<\/p>\n

Nu \u00e4r de f\u00f6rsta fr\u00e5gorna ute om Belgorod har g\u00e5tt ut med att dom frigjort sig fr\u00e5n Ryssland?<\/p>\n

Skulle s\u00e5 vara fallet och UA rullar in i Belgorod med den numer\u00e4r dom har d\u00e4r uppe f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rsvara Belgorod mot rysk aggression vore ju sm\u00e5tt svindlande.<\/p>\n

Man har is\u00e5fall gjort o\u00e4ndligt mycket mer \u00e4n att projicera ett hot och RU har nu problem p\u00e5 hemmaplan.<\/p>\n

Det finns d\u00e5 tre regioner till p\u00e5 Budanovs karta \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

St\u00e4mmer detta kommer RU inte kunna skicka mycket till UA framledes och framf\u00f6rallt f\u00e5r det sn\u00f6bollen i rullning i att Ryssland splittras.<\/p>\n

UA tog fighten till Ryssland.<\/p>\n

Breaking om det st\u00e4mmer men just nu hugger jag p\u00e5 minsta rykte \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:35 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Ryska f\u00f6rband som strider i UA.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1660568324638425088?s=46&t=3d_0Czy-2CdZ5O6qM5hGKg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:37 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Som uppmanar till resning i Belgorod.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Som avledning \u00e4r den ypperlig, nu \u00e4r ju fr\u00e5gan om det finns n\u00e5t st\u00f6rre syfte bakom.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:52 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Emergency meeting in belgorod.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1660583403752771584?s=46&t=3d_0Czy-2CdZ5O6qM5hGKg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:55 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Tror det var LABAN som f\u00f6r flera m\u00e5nader tyckte att Ukraina skulle anfalla Belarus. Jag f\u00f6reslog d\u00e5 att det vore b\u00e4ttre om det gick mot Belgorod f\u00f6r det borde skapa en enorm oreda f\u00f6r ryssen. <\/p>\n

H\u00e5ller tummarna f\u00f6r att det \u00e4r p\u00e5 allvar!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:56 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1 Oavsett om det \u00e4r p\u00e5 allvar eller inte verkar man r\u00f6rt till det f\u00f6r dem! \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:03 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Kan det vara s\u00e5 att man utrustat och samarbetet med \u201dRussian Volunteer Corps\u201d och \u201dLegion Freedom of Russia\u201d och l\u00e5ter de g\u00e5 in mot Belgorod. Vore r\u00e4tt smart f\u00f6r d\u00e5 kan Ukraina sv\u00e4ra sig fria f\u00f6r d\u00e5 \u00e4r det ryssar som sl\u00e5ss mot ryssar?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:15 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Det h\u00e4r \u00e4r en av befrielsefronterna, inte RU soldater som stridit i Ukraina.<\/p>\n

Hatten av \u2013 v\u00e4lkoordinerat \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1660589003148521475?s=46&t=3d_0Czy-2CdZ5O6qM5hGKg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Tv\u00e5a.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

S\u00e5\u2026 som minst m\u00e5ste RU rusa in flertalet brigader till Belgorod oblast som d\u00e5 inte kan k\u00f6ras ned till Ukraina.<\/p>\n

Det vi kallar det projicerade hotet mot Belgorod.<\/p>\n

Som mest blir det n\u00e5n typ av resning som sprider sig som ringar p\u00e5 vattnet och Ryssland v\u00e4nder sig in\u00e5t.<\/p>\n

Det landet \u00e4r s\u00e5 o\u00e4ndligt s\u00e5rbart, helt otroligt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:28 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Om nu AFU inte \u00e4r inblandade f\u00e5r man hoppas att \u201dFreedom of Russia Legion\u201d eller vilka de \u00e4r har tillr\u00e4ckligt med folk och utrustning f\u00f6r att verkligen f\u00e5 ryssarna att ta det p\u00e5 allvar.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:31 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:59 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Nu har dom snott en stridsvagn ocks\u00e5 i belgorod \ud83d\ude02\ud83d\ude02<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/j08727366\/status\/1660720017887862787?s=46&t=izyz02ZKRaOivkgFB-r9Kg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Darth Putin \u00e4r n\u00f6jd med rysk offensiv \ud83d\udc47<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/darthputinkgb\/status\/1660719575028371456?s=46&t=izyz02ZKRaOivkgFB-r9Kg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:02 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Dom h\u00e4r videona g\u00f6r ju rundorna i Ryssland nu \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1660719544149716995?s=46&t=izyz02ZKRaOivkgFB-r9Kg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

H\u00e4r har ni kickern \u2013 l\u00e4s och fundera p\u00e5 hur genialt detta \u00e4r med Belgorod.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/iaponomarenko\/status\/1660682640435888130?s=46&t=sFHqPk5ie7iU2tUecwis5w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Rybar tror det blir mer \u201dspaningsstrids\u201d \u2013 invasioner.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/rybar_en\/status\/1660735230368514048?s=46&t=sFHqPk5ie7iU2tUecwis5w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:05 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Bakhmut holds<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1660892208080248832?s=46&t=iG1MIagLif2Am5Hm18CB3w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Dom har allts\u00e5 v\u00e4rnsystem precis utanf\u00f6r bebyggelsen och sen l\u00e5ter det som dom h\u00e5ller n\u00e5n byggnad fortfarande, kanske den med r\u00f6tt tak?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:57 \u2013 Johan No.1 Storm is coming \u270a https:\/\/twitter.com\/azovsouth\/status\/1660383152769040386?s=46&t=pQb2mOiCiIrCA2-jZJSSwg (l\u00e5ter lite v\u00e5ldsammare \u00e4n \u201dspring is coming\u201d f\u00e5r jag nog s\u00e4ga). […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7840","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraina","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"\n2023-05-22 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-05-22\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2023-05-22 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10:57 \u2013 Johan No.1 Storm is coming \u270a https:\/\/twitter.com\/azovsouth\/status\/1660383152769040386?s=46&t=pQb2mOiCiIrCA2-jZJSSwg (l\u00e5ter lite v\u00e5ldsammare \u00e4n \u201dspring is coming\u201d f\u00e5r jag nog s\u00e4ga). 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