{"id":7845,"date":"2023-05-26T09:21:53","date_gmt":"2023-05-26T07:21:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-05-26\/"},"modified":"2023-05-26T09:21:53","modified_gmt":"2023-05-26T07:21:53","slug":"2023-05-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-05-26\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-05-26"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Det finns inget stort v\u00e4rde i att hota med en \u201dstoroffensiv\u201d och sedan v\u00e4nta 3-4 m\u00e5nader. Det finns d\u00e4remot ett v\u00e4rde i att hota med n\u00e5got om 3-4 m\u00e5nader och sedan anfalla tidigare. Att UA genomf\u00f6rt sin uppmarsch vet varenda ryss, det \u00e4r n\u00e4r och var som man f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker smyga med.<\/p>\n

Vi vet nu att Aidar har stridit mot VDV och vi vet att Aidar \u00e4r i Bakhmut. VDV har f\u00f6rsvarat linjerna l\u00e4ngre bak alternativt genomf\u00f6rt motanfall men dom slogs tillbaka, lite oklart f\u00f6r mig var striderna stod. VDV blev s\u00e5ledes ingen game-changer \u00f6verhuvudtaget h\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Det verkar ocks\u00e5 bekr\u00e4ftat att Wagner har b\u00f6rjat retirera fr\u00e5n Bakhmut tycker jag?<\/p>\n

Eftersom det h\u00e4r \u00e4r Ryssland s\u00e5 kan vi vara absolut s\u00e4kra p\u00e5 att det l\u00e4mnas stora h\u00e5l i det h\u00e4r tillbakadragandet.<\/p>\n

Detta kommer samtidigt som UA roterat in nya f\u00f6rband i Bakhmut, dom verkar strida i bataljonsstorlek.<\/p>\n

Detta b\u00f6rjar k\u00e4nnas som ett tillf\u00e4lle och \u00e4r det n\u00e5gra som n\u00e5tt wizardlevel i att utnyttja tillf\u00e4llen s\u00e5 \u00e4r det Ukraina, dom \u00e4r och nosar p\u00e5 legendary level.<\/p>\n

Drar wagner bort sin h\u00e5rda k\u00e4rna fr\u00e5n Bakhmut kommer ryska arm\u00e9n ha mycket sv\u00e5rt att plugga igen de h\u00e5len med n\u00e5got kompetent.<\/p>\n

L\u00f6sningen blir sannolikt retr\u00e4tt till Svitlodarsk-Popasnalinjen r\u00e4tt omg\u00e5ende och twitterrymden \u00e4r full med rykten att man nu bef\u00e4ster den linjen.<\/p>\n

Sen m\u00e5ste jag flagga f\u00f6r en m\u00f6jlig f\u00f6r\u00e4ndring men det beror lite p\u00e5 hur pass organiserade ryssarna \u00e4r h\u00e4r faktiskt, det \u00e4r den enda faktorn som r\u00e4knas.<\/p>\n

Dom har redan f\u00e5tt svart p\u00e5 vitt att den lilla landgr\u00e4ns dom har vid norra fronten \u00e4r hur enkel som helst att dundra igenom f\u00f6r inte s\u00e5 sm\u00e5 r\u00e4der in i Ryssland.<\/p>\n

Nu senast \u00e4r ju \u201dfreedom russia\u201d inne och tar fotografier i Kursk Oblast och andra v\u00e5gen r\u00e4der in i Belgorod \u00e4r v\u00e4l p\u00e5g\u00e5ende?<\/p>\n

I norra Luhansk har dom idag tv\u00e5 f\u00f6rsvarslinjer och staden Severedonetsk d\u00e4r man byggt f\u00f6rsvar under l\u00e5ng tid.
\nDenna f\u00f6rsvarslinje \u00e4r runt 40% i l\u00e4ngd eller d\u00e4rikring av den gr\u00e4ns dom skulle ha mot Ukraina om dom \u00f6vergav norra Luhansk.<\/p>\n

Det b\u00f6r s\u00e5ledes ha slagit ryska stridsledningen att dom inte kan \u00f6verge norra Luhansk f\u00f6r d\u00e5 l\u00e4mnar dom ett ENORMT h\u00e5l i sitt gr\u00e4nsf\u00f6rsvar som dom helt enkelt inte kan f\u00f6rsvara \u00f6verhuvudtaget.<\/p>\n

Det h\u00e4r h\u00e4nger dock p\u00e5 om ryssarna klarar av kritiskt t\u00e4nkande vilket dom inte excellerat i tidigare.
\nSen kan det fortfarande h\u00e4nda att dom prioriterar n\u00e5got annat h\u00f6gre \u00e4n norra Luhansk.<\/p>\n

Men\u2026 man kommer mycket komma snabbt till punkten d\u00e4r man m\u00e5ste v\u00e4lja vad man skall f\u00f6rsvara.<\/p>\n

Det kan mycket v\u00e4l finnas substans bakom ryktet att l\u00e4mna Donbass till LPR och DPR, f\u00f6r en riktigt sl\u00f6 rysk \u00f6verste eller general kan det v\u00e4l se attraktivt ut att p\u00e5 papperet f\u00e5r n\u00e5gon annan sk\u00f6ta om detta, dom har ju Nth antal brigader som mycket v\u00e4l b\u00f6r klara ett f\u00f6rsvar \u2013 underskrift, r\u00f6da stj\u00e4rnan st\u00e4mpel och s\u00e5 k\u00f6r vi?<\/p>\n

Rebellerna kommer st\u00e5 d\u00e4r mycket l\u00e5nga i ansiktet med nycklarna dinglandes i handen och undra vad fanken det var som just h\u00e4nde. Hela det h\u00e4r upproret var ju bara kul s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge man fick leka rebell bakom ryska arm\u00e9n.<\/p>\n

OM ryssarna \u00f6verl\u00e4mnar Donbass i rebellernas v\u00e5rd d\u00e5 \u00e5ker kapitulation av 1st och 2nd Army corps mycket h\u00f6gt upp p\u00e5 bubblarlistan.<\/p>\n

N\u00e5gon som tror att UA inte kommer mangla ryskt f\u00f6rsvar ger jag er KOS beskrivning av Izyum som den vandrande giganten Skator postade i g\u00e5rdagens tr\u00e5d i ett ljusbl\u00e5tt moln av gl\u00e4dje. Citatr\u00e4tten var v\u00e4l tre paragrafer?<\/p>\n

\u201cThe First Guards Tank Army at least had the excuse of being surprised and taken from the rear. Supporting the advance from Izium towards Sloviansk further south, the units were aligned in the southward direction. Attacked from behind by the UKR Fourth Tank Brigade, the most elite tank formation in the Russian Army was absolutely mauled; the Russian First Guards Tank Army lost 100 tanks in 100 hours.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cRemarkably, despite being in a reserve position, the Third Army Corps did worse.
\nAfter briefly running into the Ukrainian vanguard and losing a few armored vehicles, the Third Army Corps panicked and simply melted away by joining with the waves of retreating Russian soldiers from other units.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cGiven what this Corps was given in terms of equipment\u2014essentially the last remaining large quantities of stored T-90Ms, T-80BVMs, and BMP3s\u2014it\u2019s hard to overstate just how disappointing the Third Army Corps\u2019 performance must be to Putin and the Ministry of Defense.\u201d<\/p>\n

Quick Explainer: The Russian Third Army Corps may be the worst unit in Russian History (dailykos.com)<\/p>\n

Jag k\u00e4nde inte till hela den h\u00e4r historien och det h\u00e4r var vid en tidpunkt n\u00e4r det fanns intakta f\u00f6rband kvar.<\/p>\n

Ukraina slog allts\u00e5 3rd Army corps med b\u00e4st materiel och 1st Tank army som var en (relativ) elitenhet totalt, en halvnelson rakt ned i asfalten och avslutar med en yxan-spark som alla i skolan f\u00f6rs\u00f6kte l\u00e4ra sig p\u00e5 90-talet och antalet sprickor i h\u00e4lar skenade.<\/p>\n

Ig\u00e5r var det polsk general som diskuterade revolution i Belarus.
\nIdag har rysk fotbolls-ultras g\u00e5tt \u00f6ver till de ryska frihets-f\u00f6rsvararnas sida.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1661694147210756096?s=46&t=k6Fr9aoNHCytEqu9G3u1kw<\/a><\/p>\n

Det h\u00e4r blir mer och mer som n\u00e4r ryska flottan k\u00f6rde \u00f6ver halva jordklotet f\u00f6r att straffa de olydiga japanerna och s\u00e4nktes p\u00e5 n\u00e5gra timmar.<\/p>\n

Detta krig g\u00e5 ohyggligt d\u00e5ligt f\u00f6r Ryssland och Ukraina skyndar l\u00e5ngsamt, man har \u00f6kat intensiteten gradvis h\u00e4r sedan 4 Maj. Eller egentligen b\u00f6rjade man \u00f6ka intensiteten 10 April 2023 men det var inte tillr\u00e4ckligt h\u00f6gt tyckte jag innan 4 Maj och i ett moln av whisky slog jag i min gonggong det datumet.<\/p>\n

Kriget \u00e4r f\u00f6r l\u00e4nge sedan f\u00f6rlorat och det \u00e4r bara Putin som v\u00e4grar inse fullbordat faktum.
\nHistorien om 3rd Army corps \u00e4r hysteriskt rolig, vilket praktfiasko.<\/p>\n

Det vi ser just nu i Ukraina \u00e4r hur ryssarna helt f\u00f6rlorat sin f\u00f6rvisso r\u00e4tt usla f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga men dom har haft en f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga att \u201d\u00f6verv\u00e4ldiga\u201d med artilleri och pansar samt att deras spetznaz, spaning och VDV varit dugliga.
\nIdag \u00e4r denna f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga i stort sett utraderad, de sista 50 000st med stridserfarenhet har dom f\u00e5tt tulla av f\u00f6r att skydda Bakhmutfronten.<\/p>\n

Ukraina \u00e5 sin sida har genomf\u00f6rt en enorm styrkeuppbyggnad, redan v\u00e5ren 2022 stod det klart att dom hade den kritiska massan till sin f\u00f6rdel.<\/p>\n

Sedan sen h\u00f6st tr\u00e4nade och utrustade dom f\u00f6rband och n\u00e4r det inte blev n\u00e5gon vinteroffensiv blev det fler och fler brigader som var topptr\u00e4nade och utrustade fram tills dom har runt 20st \u201dnya\u201d brigader. Definitionen av \u201dnya\u201d \u00e4r soldater med stridserfarenhet, m\u00e5nga m\u00e5naders extra tr\u00e4ning och duglig materiel, b\u00e4ttre sovjetisk eller v\u00e4st.<\/p>\n

Dom har dessutom alla delar p\u00e5 plats \u2013 informationsinh\u00e4mtning, eldledning, dr\u00f6narvapnet, alla typer av indirekt eld, flyget och arm\u00e9flyget.<\/p>\n

P\u00e5 det har man \u00f6vat brigads strid och en UA stridsvagn \u00e4r ett existentiellt hot samtidigt som en RU dito \u00e4r ett stort m\u00e5l.<\/p>\n

Jag ser lite p\u00e5 det h\u00e4r som n\u00e4r man ryckte in och fick vagnarna i b\u00f6rjan, man k\u00e4mpade med sj\u00e4lva vagnen och var inte ett hot mot n\u00e5gon. Som vagnchef s\u00e5g man att v\u00e4gen sv\u00e4ngde till v\u00e4nster en bit l\u00e4ngre fram, tryckte in com-knappen och deklarerade \u201df\u00f6raren v\u00e4nster\u201d varvid f\u00f6raren drog spaken till full v\u00e4nstersv\u00e4ng och brakade rakt in i n\u00e5n lada eller ut i terr\u00e4ngen.<\/p>\n

Ett hot var ju inte vagnarna f\u00f6rr\u00e4n ett antal m\u00e5nader senare och l\u00e4nge stred man ju i plutons styrka.
\n\u00d6ver ett \u00e5r senare klarade vi v\u00e4l bataljonsstrid hj\u00e4lpligt.<\/p>\n

Ryssarna k\u00e4nns som att dom f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker klara av att ratta vagnarna och UA \u00e4r bortom slut\u00f6vning med en massa bekr\u00e4ftade nedk\u00e4mpat redan.<\/p>\n

Det verkar som man bombar Dnipro f\u00f6r att alla andra orter har LV skydd, kan det ligga n\u00e5got i det?
\n100% killrate \u00e4r ju inte s\u00e5 kul s\u00e5 man bombar vilket samh\u00e4lle som helst bara f\u00f6r att f\u00e5 n\u00e5gra tr\u00e4ff?
\nDet g\u00e5r bra nu \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:02 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Det man tog med sig fr\u00e5n mitt inl\u00e4gg var WWF och karate ser jag \ud83d\ude02\ud83d\ude02<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:37 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Tack! Intressanta tankar, bl.a. om \u201dh\u00e5let\u201d uppe i Luhansk. <\/p>\n

Undrar om vi f\u00e5r se mer \u201dbordercrossing\u201d i norr n\u00e4sta vecka f\u00f6r att stressa dem ytterligare.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Verkar kommuniceras i olika kanaler som att det \u00e4r dags?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1662346044544282625?s=46&t=EK8Ttk3m3fMNArG0vkUHpQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Allts\u00e5 inte nu p\u00e5 morgonen d\u00e5 men att man \u00e4r f\u00e4rdig att dra ig\u00e5ng med n\u00e5gonting st\u00f6rre.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:40 \u2013 Johan No.1 Det finns inget stort v\u00e4rde i att hota med en \u201dstoroffensiv\u201d och sedan v\u00e4nta 3-4 m\u00e5nader. 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