{"id":7849,"date":"2023-05-30T09:19:47","date_gmt":"2023-05-30T07:19:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-05-30\/"},"modified":"2023-05-30T09:19:47","modified_gmt":"2023-05-30T07:19:47","slug":"2023-05-30","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-05-30\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-05-30"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:44 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Den var ju uppe ig\u00e5r redan av n\u00e5t skinande geni i tr\u00e5den utan begynnande h\u00e5ravfall men Zelensky gick nu ut med att datum \u00e4r spikat f\u00f6r offensiven.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1663263126521888769?s=46&t=Bkw6fWp5Q-O7jcGTf8FuHA<\/a><\/p>\n

Gregg nu p\u00e5 morgonen har g\u00e5tt ut med att milit\u00e4rledningen \u00f6nskar att man inte diskuterar offensiven \u201di ett par dagar\u201d.<\/p>\n

Som n\u00e5gon skrev ig\u00e5r och som vi diskuterat f\u00f6rut \u00e4r det hundratusentals soldater utg\u00e5ngsgrupperade med familjer som skall f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka leva ett liv samtidigt som oron \u00e4ter upp dom inifr\u00e5n.<\/p>\n

Soldaterna har v\u00e4l telefonf\u00f6rbud nu och haft sina sista samtal med familjen.
\nL\u00e4ste n\u00e5got nyligen som passar \u2013 \u201dMay all the Angels in Heaven protect them\u201d. <\/p>\n

Vi vet var en av arm\u00e9k\u00e5rerna \u00e4r och vi vet att brigader i den har Leo2 \u2013 inget nytt d\u00e4r och f\u00f6ljer den stora f\u00e4ltt\u00e5gsplanen.<\/p>\n

Vart den andra skickas \u00e4r det intressanta f\u00f6r det \u00e4r en till j\u00e4ttesm\u00e4ll p\u00e5 10st \u201dnya\u201d brigader som tillf\u00f6rs n\u00e5gon front.<\/p>\n

Om n\u00e5gon trodde att det inte \u00e4r p\u00e5g\u00e5ende offensiv redan s\u00e5 \u00e4r det st\u00e4ndiga r\u00e4der och explosioner i Belgorod Oblast.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1663268651305238528?s=46&t=Bkw6fWp5Q-O7jcGTf8FuHA<\/a><\/p>\n

Om man f\u00e5r gissa \u00e4r detta en kombination av infiltrerande SOF, r\u00e4der av \u201dFreedom Russia\u201d och rebeller i Ryssland.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 dagliga sabotage mot h\u00f6gv\u00e4rdiga m\u00e5l inne i Ryssland, dr\u00f6nare eller regelr\u00e4tta sabotage.<\/p>\n

Vi har ocks\u00e5 diskuterat det f\u00f6rut att Ryssland \u00e4r om\u00f6jligt att skydda men jag tror inte n\u00e5gon av oss r\u00e4knade med att ryska gr\u00e4nsen mot Ukraina skulle vara helt of\u00f6rsvarad \u2013 dom \u00f6verraskade oss igen.<\/p>\n

Sen har det r\u00f6rt p\u00e5 sig konstant i Bakhmut sedan 3rd Assault brigade tryckte p\u00e5 start och det verkar bekr\u00e4ftat att Wagner drar sig ur nu. Det \u00e4r mycket bra och UA har roterat in nya bataljoner under veckan som gick.<\/p>\n

Jag tror jag f\u00f6rst\u00e5r Klischivka, en skog och en h\u00f6jd som \u00e4r v\u00e4lbef\u00e4st. UA verkar f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka r\u00f6ra sig i skyl och skog f\u00f6r att projicera en omfattning och Accentmannen var det tydligen har gissat att man kan f\u00e5r ryssarna att \u00f6verge Klischivka utan att storma det.<\/p>\n

UA droppar flygblad i detta nu.<\/p>\n

Nu n\u00e4r alla hoppas p\u00e5 Saving private ryan offensiv s\u00e5 \u00e4r det ju p\u00e5 sin plats att p\u00e5minna att RU f\u00e5tt k\u00f6ra in m\u00e5nga brigader som f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar till Bakhmut och det g\u00f6r man inte om det \u00e4r \u201dplutons spaningsstrider\u201d \u2013 det \u00e4r och har varit offensiva operationer kring Bakhmut sedan 3rd assault brigade drog ig\u00e5ng. <\/p>\n

Gregg bekr\u00e4ftade ocks\u00e5 (om man v\u00e4ljer att tro p\u00e5 Gregg) att det \u00e4r som vi tror att dom har n\u00e5t tjugotal brigader i Bakhmutomr\u00e5det s\u00e5 det finns mycket mer offensiv f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga vid den fronten som inte beh\u00f6ver flyttas till andra fronter.<\/p>\n

Vi har gissat att n\u00e4r historien skall skrivas kommer sanningen vara 10ggr v\u00e4rre \u00e4n det vi k\u00e4nner till idag, vi har ju t\u00e4nkt att vintern i Mariupol inte varit \u00f6verlevnadsbar och vi har siffror p\u00e5 d\u00f6da som \u00e4r hisnande.<\/p>\n

Jag tror \u00e4ven att historien kommer visa att ryska anfallet varit o\u00e4ndligt mycket mer inkompetent \u00e4n vad vi tror. Vi har n\u00e4mligen en tendens att avf\u00e4rda historierna om fylla, kaos, utslagna dep\u00e5er, ingen mat och inget vatten som anekdoter och inte normall\u00e4get.<\/p>\n

Fick till sist tid att se youtubefilmen om Hostomel och det gick ju \u00e5t helskotta direkt, tre brigader som k\u00f6rde \u00f6ver VDV p\u00e5 flygplatsen och inte innan pansaret n\u00e5dde fram drog sig UA tillbaka.<\/p>\n

Det h\u00e4r var \u00f6ppningsdraget som slutade med den stora retr\u00e4tten fr\u00e5n Kiev.<\/p>\n

Charkiv gick ju precis lika d\u00e5ligt vet vi v\u00e4l nu och det ryktas att Spetznaz, spaning, VDV och marininfanteriet \u00e4r i stort sett utpl\u00e5nade \u2013 men vi vill inte riktigt tro p\u00e5 det heller f\u00f6r det \u00e4r f\u00f6r sensationellt.<\/p>\n

Rebellerna har ju knappt kommit ur startgroparna l\u00e4ngs med Horlivka och ned till norr om Vuhledar p\u00e5 l\u00e5ngt \u00f6ver ett \u00e5r.<\/p>\n

Putin \u00e4r absolut desperat \u00f6ver att v\u00e4st skall sluta st\u00f6dja Ukraina och helst att v\u00e4st gl\u00f6mmer bort kriget. Ett l\u00e5gintensivt krig som Ryssland kunde klara av under m\u00e5nga \u00e5r.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/kremlintrolls\/status\/1663161861611700226?s=46&t=svrO2JeX-_q_uFhddvPeIw<\/a><\/p>\n

Han f\u00e5r inte det men det \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 d\u00e4rf\u00f6r alla m\u00e5ste forts\u00e4tta diskutera kriget s\u00e5 det inte faller i gl\u00f6mska.<\/p>\n

Nu har vi uppror i oblasterna n\u00e4rmast Ukraina, en v\u00e5g av sabotage mot infrastruktur i Ryssland, en rej\u00e4l wedgie i och med att gr\u00e4nsen var of\u00f6rsvarad, lyckad UA offensiv vid Bakhmut och s\u00e5 vidare.<\/p>\n

Ovanp\u00e5 allt det \u00e4r ryska ekonomin miserabel f\u00f6rutom berget med rupier och v\u00e4st har nu skickat robotar och snart jaktflyg \u2013 allt som \u00e5terstod p\u00e5 \u00f6nskelistan.<\/p>\n

Kriget \u00e4r verkligen \u00f6ver men en man v\u00e4grar inse det, han h\u00e5ller ist\u00e4llet p\u00e5 med formalia kring er\u00f6vrade provinser som om att dom redan vunnit, det hisnar.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/kyivindependent\/status\/1663166082440470529?s=46&t=svrO2JeX-_q_uFhddvPeIw<\/a><\/p>\n

Den h\u00e4r f\u00f6rklarar de stulna barnen, de som kunde visa upp ett UA barn fick pengar och l\u00e4genhet som tack tydligen, enligt nedan.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/glasnostgone\/status\/1663172048825229313?s=46&t=svrO2JeX-_q_uFhddvPeIw<\/a><\/p>\n

Att gr\u00e4nsskyddet skulle forts\u00e4tta vara s\u00e5 d\u00e5ligt \u00e4r mycket m\u00e4rkligt, dom har v\u00e4l haft \u00f6ver en vecka p\u00e5 sig nu?<\/p>\n

Enligt nedan link f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker dom hyra gamla Wagner f\u00f6r att fylla upp luckorna.<\/p>\n

Argus har ju upplyst om att FSB borde ha 100 000st och det finns v\u00e4l ocks\u00e5 enligt min utr\u00e4kning 360 000st till som skall vara till f\u00f6r just detta men dom \u00e4r ju inte i Belgorod Oblast i alla fall.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/chriso_wiki\/status\/1663134103170850816?s=46&t=quTdinkQfmUnnYGEBn3jWQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Vi har diskuterat detta f\u00f6rut och om det kan vara s\u00e5 att dessa olika grupperingar \u00e4r till f\u00f6r maktkampen i Ryssland och inte kan offras i Ukraina \u2013 n\u00e5got skall dom ju ha att d\u00f6da varandra med n\u00e4r landet v\u00e4nder sig in\u00e5t snart?<\/p>\n

Hade det h\u00e4r varit ett normall\u00e4ge s\u00e5 borde Belgorod Oblast vara \u00f6versv\u00e4mmat med Omon, Rosgvardia, FSB, arm\u00e9brigader och vad mer men det \u00e4r det inte.<\/p>\n

Det signalerar f\u00f6r mig att rysk f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga tagit mycket stryk i det h\u00e4r kriget.<\/p>\n

Samtidigt som Ukraina har en offensiv reserv p\u00e5 20st tunga elefanter som st\u00e5r och justerar startblocken.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:06 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Tack f\u00f6r v\u00e4rdefulla observationer Dengamle, n\u00e4sta niv\u00e5 \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Jo, det var en d\u00e5lig liknelse, hade v\u00e4l t\u00e4nkt mig att j\u00e4mf\u00f6relsen var med D-dagen kanske men 8-9 soldater \u00e4r ju inte vare sig v\u00e5ldsamt eller snabbt s\u00e5 en god po\u00e4ng.<\/p>\n

Punkt tv\u00e5 ovan tydligg\u00f6r du det hela p\u00e5 ett mycket snyggt s\u00e4tt, det har ju faktiskt varit of\u00f6rm\u00e5ga sedan Hostomel och den odugliga of\u00f6rm\u00e5gan att f\u00f6ra krig har blivit \u00e4nnu s\u00e4mre \u00e4n den var d\u00e5. Vi har ju snart kommit till en punkt d\u00e4r vi faktiskt m\u00e5ste b\u00f6rjar kalla det en specialoperation f\u00f6r det \u00e4r helt enkelt f\u00f6r inkomptent att kunna kallas krig l\u00e4ngre. Eller vi kanske borde b\u00f6rja prata i termer om det ryska bonde-upproret i Ukraina?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:10 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Allt kommer alltid ta l\u00e4ngre \u00e4n man t\u00e4nkt sig, s\u00e5 \u00e4ven f\u00f6rberedelserna som ju gjorts mitt under brinnande krig.
\nUSA hade ju f\u00f6rm\u00e5nen att kunna f\u00f6rbereda sig hur l\u00e4nge som helst mot ett fast datum, Ryssland likas\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Ukraina m\u00e5ste ju f\u00f6rsvara sig samtidigt som dom f\u00f6rbereder sig, wizardlevel.<\/p>\n

Jag \u00e4r av \u00e5sikten att f\u00f6nstret inte f\u00e5r bli f\u00f6r utdraget f\u00f6r d\u00e5 hinner ryssarna f\u00f6rbereda sig mer, det tog dom lite \u00f6ver en vecka att f\u00e5 fram f\u00f6rband till Svitlodarsk-Popasnalinjen och det tog dom ett par dagar att f\u00e5 fram f\u00f6rband till norra fronten.<\/p>\n

Sen har vi j\u00e4tte-jokern, har dom n\u00e5gra reserver alls?<\/p>\n

Att det inte f\u00f6rdes fram 150 000st till norra fronten \u00e4r lite avsl\u00f6jande.<\/p>\n

Is\u00e5fall spelar det ju ingen roll n\u00e4r Ukraina b\u00f6rjar f\u00f6r dom kan inte f\u00f6rst\u00e4rka mer.<\/p>\n

Allt gissningar.<\/p>\n

Men jo, tid \u00e4r pengar heter det v\u00e4l.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Det var en sak jag trodde vi skulle f\u00e5tt se redan och det var att Ryssland erbjuder fred f\u00f6r att r\u00e4dda barnen.
\nD\u00e5 naturligtvis eldupph\u00f6r men frusna fronter, v\u00e4ldigt ryskt att g\u00f6ra s\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Sen skulle oponionsbildare i v\u00e4st g\u00e5 ut med fasansfulla beskrivningar om hur Ukraina forts\u00e4tter kriga och d\u00f6dar barnen n\u00e4r Ryssland vill ha fred.<\/p>\n

Jo, ryssarna \u00e4r mycket stressade nu, Belgorod och Bakhmut (som ju \u00e4r introt typ, avledningen och dra f\u00f6rband till ett sekund\u00e4rm\u00e5l) har dom knappt klarat av att hantera hittills.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:45 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1 Tack, bra skrivet som alltid!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:06 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Putins tal, en absolut s\u00f6rja.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/rybar_en\/status\/1663544685032529924?s=46&t=tx6b3mBWVkJV1M0GDIYqIA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:19 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

S\u00f6rja och en riktig sm\u00f6rja.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:22 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Den andra arm\u00e9k\u00e5ren av nya brigader \u00e4r markerad f\u00f6r att korsa en viss flod. Jag tror det mer har att g\u00f6ra med att kart\u00e4garen inte riktigt vet var dom \u00e4r \u00e4n att dom st\u00e5r d\u00e4r och bl\u00f6ter t\u00e5rna.<\/p>\n

Det enda scenario vi egentligen inte lyft \u00e4r att UA satsar allt p\u00e5 ett v\u00e5ldsamt genombrott som tar dom till Kertj \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Idag \u00e4r ju f\u00f6rsvaret nere p\u00e5 Krim r\u00e4tt luggslitet och allt som \u00e4r vid s\u00f6dra fronten kommer retirera i panik bak\u00e5t.<\/p>\n

Vid alla fronter kan ju UA f\u00f6rsvara med ena handen bakom ryggen och det finns en offensiv p\u00e5 20st brigader samt 10st brigader vid Dnepr och 10st till vid s\u00f6dra fronten.<\/p>\n

Den d\u00e4r \u00e5ngv\u00e4lten skulle dom inte f\u00e5 stopp p\u00e5 innan Kertj om ens det.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Det h\u00e4r var en tanke som fl\u00f6g f\u00f6rbi, kanske skulle varit tydligare \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:44 \u2013 Johan No.1 Den var ju uppe ig\u00e5r redan av n\u00e5t skinande geni i tr\u00e5den utan begynnande h\u00e5ravfall men 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