{"id":7918,"date":"2023-06-04T12:49:32","date_gmt":"2023-06-04T10:49:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-06-04\/"},"modified":"2023-06-04T12:49:32","modified_gmt":"2023-06-04T10:49:32","slug":"2023-06-04","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-06-04\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-06-04"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Nu n\u00e4r man sk\u00e4mde ut sig i medaljracet hoppas jag att ett inl\u00e4gg kan accepteras som botg\u00f6relse,<\/p>\n

Ju n\u00e4rmare vi kommer offensiva operationer vid s\u00f6dra fronten desto mer d\u00e4mpad blir man, det \u00e4r ju d\u00e4r Ukraina kan f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntas ta stora f\u00f6rluster och v\u00e4ntan t\u00e4r v\u00e4l p\u00e5 familjerna just nu.<\/p>\n

Filmen p\u00e5 fadern som kom hem och d\u00f6ttrarna som b\u00f6rjade gr\u00e5ta tr\u00f6stl\u00f6st tog p\u00e5 djupet \u2013 barnen b\u00e4r p\u00e5 mycket oro och f\u00f6r\u00e4ldrar \u00e4r s\u00e5 pass stressade sj\u00e4lva att dom inte r\u00e4cker till.<\/p>\n

May all the angels in heaven protect them tycker jag passar (igen och m\u00e5nga g\u00e5nger till). <\/p>\n

Lejonen
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1665073039682174977?s=46&t=yEFHa6rQ6WOGQg018mXG0g<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1664981570501988353?s=46&t=yEFHa6rQ6WOGQg018mXG0g<\/a><\/p>\n

F\u00f6r att friska upp minnet lite s\u00e5 \u00e4r ju Azovst\u00f6ten (gl\u00f6mt bort vem som myntade uttrycket) ocks\u00e5 \u201dschackdraget\u201d. Det vill s\u00e4ga att d\u00e5 \u00e4r det bara en fr\u00e5ga om n\u00e4r det h\u00e4r tar slut, det \u00e4r o\u00e5terkallerligt.
\nVad som st\u00e5r nere p\u00e5 Krim \u00e4r inst\u00e4ngt och en fr\u00e5ga om tid innan de bek\u00e4mpats.<\/p>\n

S\u00e5 fort man utdelat schackdraget parkerar man 1-2 brigader vid landtungan ned till Krim och l\u00f6sg\u00f6r d\u00e5 20-40st brigader (lite beroende p\u00e5 vart den andra arm\u00e9k\u00e5ren dyker upp) som kan sv\u00e4nga upp i en enorm uppercut \u201dbakom\u201d (\u00f6ster om) staden Donetsk.<\/p>\n

Ryska laget \u00e4r d\u00e5 minus allt f\u00f6rsvar som lagt benen p\u00e5 ryggen ned till Krim och allt som st\u00e5r kvar brinnande bakom s\u00f6dra fronten och den anfallsvektorn g\u00e5r rakt upp i d\u00e5ligt f\u00f6rsvarade omr\u00e5den som en uppercut mot en tr\u00f6tt motst\u00e5ndare i en MMA fight (skulle det tydligen vara n\u00e4r jag f\u00f6rs\u00f6kte med boxningsmatch senast).<\/p>\n

Vill man lista ut var det kommer sm\u00e4lla \u00e4r det ju inte s\u00e5 dumt att kolla var pansarbrigaderna st\u00e5r eller hur. Inga direkta nyheter tycker jag.<\/p>\n

Samma med ett par av de \u201dnya\u201d brigaderna som vi vet har Leo2 och Bradley. Tyv\u00e4rr s\u00e5 tog jag inte anteckningar tidigare n\u00e4r brigaderna visade upp v\u00e4stpansar under tr\u00e4ning men gissningen att dom poolas mot en viss anfallsvektor \u00e4r h\u00f6gst rimligt.<\/p>\n

Det enda som f\u00f6rv\u00e5nar mig just nu \u00e4r vad ena tyngdpunkten ligger, jag trodde nog att den andra arm\u00e9k\u00e5ren skulle dyka upp n\u00e5gon annanstans men just nu verkar r\u00e4tt m\u00e5nga f\u00f6rband g\u00f6ra sig redo f\u00f6r att korsa ni vet vad.<\/p>\n

Det kan s\u00e5klart vara wizardlevel i krigslist och dom dyker upp vid annan front, vi gick v\u00e4l igenom den anfallsvektorn f\u00f6r n\u00e5n m\u00e5nad sedan och resonerade kring brohuvud.<\/p>\n

Det brohuvudet skulle tillsammans med Azovst\u00f6ten projicera ett s\u00e5 pass starkt hot att RU helt p\u00e5 egen hand t\u00f6mde omr\u00e5det bakom s\u00f6dra fronten. F\u00f6r att lyckas med det m\u00e5ste den kombinerade styrkeuppvisningen vara mycket v\u00e5ldsam och i alla fall jag f\u00e5r intrycket att det byggts upp mot det.<\/p>\n

Vi har m\u00e5nga g\u00e5nger diskuterat att det spelar ingen roll vad Ryssland st\u00e4ller upp mot den h\u00e4r offensiva resursen \u00f6verhuvudtaget \u2013 den \u00e4r ostoppbar.<\/p>\n

Skulle dom vilja poola in f\u00f6rsvar d\u00e4r den kommer d\u00e5 fintar UA med anfall vid annan front, dom \u00e4r chansl\u00f6sa.<\/p>\n

Den andra fokuspunkten f\u00f6r stridsvagn \u00e4r n\u00e5got som g\u00f6r Erik14 glad f\u00f6r d\u00e5 f\u00e5r han beh\u00e5lla en femhundring.<\/p>\n

Uppe i Belgorod \u00e4r det absolut kaos och det \u00e4r ju bland det roligaste som h\u00e4nt i hela kriget. Jag t\u00e4nker s\u00e5 h\u00e4r \u2013 varf\u00f6r skall UA sluta med n\u00e5got som g\u00e5r \u00f6ver f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntan. <\/p>\n

En stad p\u00e5 40 000st inv\u00e5nare i landet Ryssland har dom precis tappat kontrollen \u00f6ver, tydligen har medborgarna l\u00e4mnat och rebellerna \u00e4r och nosar i f\u00f6rorterna. Efter snart tv\u00e5 veckors strider har dom inte lyckats stabilisera l\u00e4get det minsta.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1665283409248153604?s=46&t=yEFHa6rQ6WOGQg018mXG0g<\/a><\/p>\n

Det h\u00e4r \u00e4r ju rimligen ett reptrick dom kommer forts\u00e4tta med tills det tar stopp.<\/p>\n

Hur Ryssland kunde vara s\u00e5 absolut riskben\u00e4gna \u00e4r f\u00f6r mig ett mysterium men det har dom varit \u2013 det \u00e4r ju som att be om att f\u00e5 stryk.<\/p>\n

Ryska gr\u00e4nsen mot Ukraina \u00e4r o\u00e4ndligt l\u00e5ng och klarar dom inte att f\u00f6rsvara 50km kan ni ju gissa hur det ser ut d\u00e4r UA \u00e4nnu inte genomf\u00f6rt n\u00e5gra r\u00e4der.<\/p>\n

Idag fick vi reda p\u00e5 att ryssarna regnar termit \u00f6ver egen stad i Belgorod \u2013 dom \u00e4r verkligen bara f\u00f6r\u00f6delse, dom en gr\u00e4shoppssv\u00e4rm.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1665222242786062336?s=46&t=yEFHa6rQ6WOGQg018mXG0g<\/a><\/p>\n

N\u00e4r f\u00f6rsta Belgorod-r\u00e4den tr\u00e4ffade twitter skrev vi v\u00e4l att man inte skulle underskatta r\u00f6ran Ukraina st\u00e4llde till med h\u00e4r, of\u00f6rsvarad gr\u00e4ns och Belgorod Peoples Republic, BPR \u2013 en sida ur Putins spelbok och allt det.<\/p>\n

Jag b\u00f6rjar k\u00e4nna att det var en underskattning \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Det verkar som ryssarna inte klarar att uppr\u00e4tth\u00e5lla kontrollen \u00f6ver stora omr\u00e5den och det kryper n\u00e4rmare staden Belgorod. Nu \u00e4r det n\u00e5gra bataljoner som roar sig med r\u00e4der lite h\u00e4r och var men vad tror ni h\u00e4nder n\u00e4r 20 000st ryska medborgare som har ett \u00e5rs stridserfarenhet i Ukraina p\u00e5 allvar trycker p\u00e5 mot Belgorod?<\/p>\n

Eller Kursk, eller Bryansk?<\/p>\n

Det dom g\u00f6r just nu \u00e4r att dom skapar kaos och sen drar in ryska motanfall innanf\u00f6r eget artparaply och sl\u00e5r ut dom.<\/p>\n

Flyget \u00e5ker ocks\u00e5 in i deras LV paraply och tar f\u00f6rluster.<\/p>\n

P\u00e5 det h\u00e4r s\u00e4ttet dr\u00e4nerar man f\u00f6rbanden d\u00e4ruppe och kan p\u00e5 sikt hitta p\u00e5 n\u00e5got \u00e4nnu jobbigare f\u00f6r Putin 50km \u00e5t \u00f6ster eller v\u00e4ster.<\/p>\n

Sen \u00e4r det som jag f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker skriva dagligen mycket l\u00e5ngt ifr\u00e5n lugnt i Bakhmut.<\/p>\n

Dom skulle ju pausa S om Bakhmut f\u00f6r att jobba med indirekt eld mot linjen Opytne \u2013 s\u00f6dra Zaitseve och ist\u00e4llet trycka p\u00e5 N om Bakhmut och nu verkar det r\u00f6ra lite p\u00e5 sig uppe vid Soledar enligt Gregg?<\/p>\n

Pl\u00f6tsligt kommer det sl\u00e4ppa kring Bakhmut n\u00e4r dom drar sig tillbaka till Svitlodarsk \u2013 Popasnalinjen.<\/p>\n

Att f\u00e5 se Scholz g\u00e5 full ape och helt ta bladet fr\u00e5n munnen var mycket befriande. Med hans bakgrund och de kretsar han kan t\u00e4nkas ha r\u00f6rt sig i var integriteten total. <\/p>\n

Rimligen har mannen Scholz best\u00e4mt sig f\u00f6r att g\u00f6ra det r\u00e4tta kosta vad det kosta vill. Hatten av. <\/p>\n

Van g\u00f6r ju sina inhopp och l\u00e4ser v\u00e5ra hyllningstexter till Tyskland och det vore kul om den andra hen som f\u00f6rs\u00f6kte f\u00f6rsvara Tyskland och Scholz i b\u00f6rjan kunde dyka in igen och l\u00e4sa det positiva. Han hade det lite k\u00e4mpigt.<\/p>\n

Videon har varit uppe m\u00e5nga g\u00e5nger, postar den igen bara f\u00f6r mitt eget arkiv.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1665032138847027201?t=zGrOeJqAOhL_ZQVwUwJ0BQ&s=19<\/a><\/p>\n

Vill man h\u00f6ra ett eko av vad vi diskuterat i bloggen kring hur det h\u00e4r kriget g\u00e5r kan man l\u00e4sa Girkins senaste.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/s1epans\/status\/1664941308635500544?s=46&t=yEFHa6rQ6WOGQg018mXG0g<\/a><\/p>\n

Tror legenden MXT var f\u00f6rst ut med att det \u00e4r r\u00f6rigt i St Petersburg, ser r\u00e4tt livligt ut faktiskt.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/golub\/status\/1665119400540643328?s=46&t=yEFHa6rQ6WOGQg018mXG0g<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/golub\/status\/1665252618967326721?s=46&t=yEFHa6rQ6WOGQg018mXG0g<\/a><\/p>\n

Men inte bara det \u2013 en rysk man kastar sten p\u00e5 pro-krigs kvinnor i Moskva och blir inte gripen.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1665281803547029506?s=46&t=yEFHa6rQ6WOGQg018mXG0g<\/a><\/p>\n

N\u00e5n anser att det \u00e4r fler filmer p\u00e5 minr\u00f6jning nu \u00e4n tidigare, en bra \u00e5tg\u00e4rd om man vill braka p\u00e5 med mekanfall.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1665261409356185601?s=46&t=yEFHa6rQ6WOGQg018mXG0g<\/a><\/p>\n

Sen vill Kina tydligen ha \u00f6kat milit\u00e4rt samarbete med Ukraina \u2013 \u00e4r det h\u00e4r att kasta under bussen fr\u00e5gar en orolig kompis i Altai.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1665099077661474819?s=46&t=yEFHa6rQ6WOGQg018mXG0g<\/a><\/p>\n

Det kommer bli en l\u00e5ng sommar men bubblarlistan kokar och Ukraina har kommit mycket v\u00e4l f\u00f6rberedda h\u00e4r. Den offensiva reserven \u00e4r helt enkelt ostoppbar.<\/p>\n

Tyv\u00e4rr s\u00e5 kom mitt tjut inte med p\u00e5 n\u00e4mndm\u00f6tet om att f\u00e5 sp\u00e5 utfall fr\u00e5n bubblarlistan men Belgorod-h\u00e4rjningarna skall inte underskattas.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:23 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Det h\u00e4r med om det \u00e4r offensiv eller inte, och jag f\u00f6rst\u00e5r precis hur tankarna g\u00e5r kring \u201dstoroffensiven\u201d men vill p\u00e5tala att f\u00f6r att kunna h\u00e4vda det missar man ju att Ryssland har tappat kontrollen \u00f6ver en stad p\u00e5 40 000st inv\u00e5nare 10km in fr\u00e5n sin landgr\u00e4ns.<\/p>\n

Nog m\u00e5ste v\u00e4l det r\u00e4knas som offensiv?
\nEller invasion till och med?<\/p>\n

Med det sagt, \u00e4r helt med p\u00e5 hur resonemanget kring storoffensiven g\u00e5r men det h\u00e4nder en hel del i dom h\u00e4r \u201dspaningsstriderna\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:26 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

F\u00f6r min del k\u00e4nns Belgorod som en strategisk trollning, som en slags f\u00f6roffensiv. \u00c4ven om den \u00e4r lyckad \u00e4r det i slut\u00e4ndan utsl\u00e4ngd ryss man vill se.. Men visst \u00e4r offensiven egentligen redan p\u00e5b\u00f6rjad!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Jo visst, invasion var fel ord.<\/p>\n

Befrielse hade passat b\u00e4ttre.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:58 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Motsatte mig inte ditt inl\u00e4gg eller din ben\u00e4mning, var v\u00e4l mer s\u00e5 att jag f\u00f6r min del fr\u00e4mst g\u00e5r och v\u00e4ntar p\u00e5 att man ska b\u00f6rja trycka ut ryssarna fr\u00e5n Ukraina.<\/p>\n

Det som h\u00e4nder i Belgorod ser jag mer som en v\u00e4g att n\u00e5 dit och inte ett m\u00e5l i sig. Fast jag \u00e4r helt f\u00f6r det! F\u00f6reslog det sj\u00e4lv tidigare under v\u00e5ren \u00e4ven om jag inte trodde de skulle v\u00e5ga g\u00f6ra det rent \u201dpolitiskt\u201d.
\nT\u00e4nkte inte d\u00e5 p\u00e5 att de kunde anv\u00e4nda sig av ryssar.. (s\u00e5 j\u00e4kla smart av dem \u00e4ven om alla begriper att Ukraina \u00e4nd\u00e5 ligger bakom).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:20 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Umdrar om det kan vara s\u00e5 att AFU bara g\u00e5r och v\u00e4ntar p\u00e5 att f\u00e5 ut maximalt fr\u00e5n situationen i Belgorod. F\u00f6rst n\u00e4r Ryssland p\u00e5 allvar flyttat dit styrkor s\u00e5 \u00f6kar man intensiteten p\u00e5 andra h\u00e5ll.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
15:39 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n

Absolut, enig \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Jag gl\u00f6mde skrattande gult ansikte.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:47 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

\u00d6ka trycket i Belgorod?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1665326034261008385?s=46&t=-hdaBB-VFMYGJD0Rrs3byQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:58 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Du har idag kaos vid norra fronten och vid Bakhmut. norra Luhansk \u00e4r nog inte f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkt f\u00f6r offensiv men om RU f\u00f6rsvagat f\u00f6r mycket g\u00e5r dom v\u00e4l fram\u00e5t?<\/p>\n

Mellan Horlivka och staden Donetsk h\u00e5ller dom trycket uppe.<\/p>\n

Vid s\u00f6dra fronten har du korsning av vi-vet-vad samt tre anfallsvektorer mot Azov \u2013 \u00e5tminstone tv\u00e5 \u00e4r det r\u00e4tt livligt kring just nu, ytterkanterna.<\/p>\n

Ovan \u00e4r v\u00e4l precis som du skriver och n\u00e4r jag r\u00e4knat p\u00e5 detta har dom j\u00e4mnt f\u00f6rdelat 20st brigader p\u00e5 dessa olika frontavsnitt, norra Luhansk lite mindre och Horlivka \u2013 donetsk tillr\u00e4ckligt f\u00f6r f\u00f6rsvar och visst tryck.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Det verkar h\u00e4nda n\u00e5got i st petersburg?<\/p>\n

Gul-bl\u00e5 ballonger i en pilisststion.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/xsovietnews\/status\/1665386109482811392?s=46&t=-hdaBB-VFMYGJD0Rrs3byQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Lite i skymundan h\u00e4r i tr\u00e5den s\u00e5 p\u00e5g\u00e5r det ju n\u00e4stan en invasion, eller befrielse, av Belgorod om man f\u00e5r tro twittergudarna.<\/p>\n

Verkar vara en 30km bred front som nu \u00e4r 1\/4 av v\u00e4gen upp till Belgorod fr\u00e5n gr\u00e4nsen.<\/p>\n

Det var uppgifter under dagen p\u00e5 att det f\u00f6rdes fram mekaniserat \u00f6ver gr\u00e4nsen och har man b\u00f6rjat etablera sig s\u00e5 pass brett som twittergudarna vill s\u00e5 \u00e4r det inte n\u00e5gra kompanier l\u00e4ngre.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:17 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Tack nattpasset.<\/p>\n

Verkar som samma h\u00e4nde som vid Bakhumt, Bilohorivka och i Belgorod \u2013 n\u00e4r UA tryckte p\u00e5 n\u00e5gra punkter vid s\u00f6dra fronten kom dom igenom n\u00e5n kilometer eller mer.<\/p>\n

Det blir en l\u00e5ng sommar men trenden h\u00e5ller i sig verkar det som, man petar p\u00e5 RU f\u00f6rsvar och dom viker fr\u00e5n den orten.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13:04 \u2013 Johan No.1 Nu n\u00e4r man sk\u00e4mde ut sig i medaljracet hoppas jag att ett inl\u00e4gg kan accepteras som 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