{"id":7985,"date":"2023-07-14T10:10:22","date_gmt":"2023-07-14T08:10:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-07-14\/"},"modified":"2023-07-14T10:10:22","modified_gmt":"2023-07-14T08:10:22","slug":"2023-07-14","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-07-14\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-07-14"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Enligt tidigare s\u00e5 b\u00f6rjar det s\u00e5 sm\u00e5tt byggas upp mot ett genombrott.<\/p>\n

Vid Bakhmut \u00e4r RU f\u00f6rband luggslitna och h\u00e4nger med huvudena och det \u00e4r VDV.<\/p>\n

UA strider fortfarande med sina assault brigades och n\u00e5gra mekbrigader som dom b\u00f6rjade med f\u00f6r tv\u00e5 m\u00e5nader sedan eller n\u00e4r det nu drog ig\u00e5ng d\u00e4r mer exakt.<\/p>\n

Vill dom kan dom rotera antalet brigader i aktiv Bakhmutfront 2ggr till och f\u00f6rst d\u00e5 har dom g\u00e5tt igenom reserven.<\/p>\n

P\u00e5 den ryska sidan har man slut p\u00e5 f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar och VDV strider nu i skyttev\u00e4rnen eller inne i Bakhmut.<\/p>\n

Det logiska f\u00f6r RU vore att dra tillbaka utmattade f\u00f6rband till Svitlodarsk \u2013 Popasnalinjen som f\u00f6r \u00f6vrigt verkar g\u00e5 \u00e4nda upp till Lysychansk, lite otippat, trodde det var Hirske och sen Toshkivka men jag har v\u00e4l inte kollat h\u00f6jdkartorna tillr\u00e4ckligt bra i vanlig ordning.<\/p>\n

Vid denna linje har man t\u00e4nkt sig sitt f\u00f6rsvar men om dom inte \u00e4r f\u00f6rsiktiga s\u00e5 kommer stridsv\u00e4rdet p\u00e5 brigaderna som bemannar den linjen vara f\u00f6rsvinnande l\u00e5gt.<\/p>\n

Hela Bakhmut-utbuktningen \u00e4r under stor press och pl\u00f6tsligt s\u00e5 kommer RU k\u00f6ra sin version av organiserad retr\u00e4tt och \u00e4r det n\u00e5got dom varit bra p\u00e5 i hela kriget s\u00e5 \u00e4r det att slinka ur inringningar men det vinner man inga krig p\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Det finns ocks\u00e5 en chans att Horlivka inte \u00e4r v\u00e4lf\u00f6rsvarat \u2013 vi f\u00e5r se. Uppgiften verkar falla p\u00e5 LPR f\u00f6rband.<\/p>\n

Ryssarnas problem just nu \u00e4r att f\u00e4rre och f\u00e4rre f\u00f6rband \u00e4r stridsdugliga vid Bakhmutfronten, man har v\u00e4l roterat minst tre g\u00e5nger under tv\u00e5 m\u00e5nader samtidigt som 3rd Assaultbrigade stridit oavbrutet.<\/p>\n

Ukraina trycker p\u00e5 mot Klischiivka och Kurdiumivka, dom trycker p\u00e5 norr om Bakhmut mot Berkivka, Yahidne, Krasna Hora.<\/p>\n

Sen anfaller dom \u00d6 om Soledar i riktning Yakolivka.<\/p>\n

Mellan Soledar \u2013 Bilohorivka (just S om Siversky Donets) finns det dessutom ett antal man\u00f6verbrigader som kan g\u00e5 fram\u00e5t vid r\u00e4tt tillf\u00e4lle.<\/p>\n

S\u00e5 fort RU b\u00f6rjar falla tillbaka till Svitlodarsk \u2013 Popasnalinjen (som g\u00e5r till Lysychansk) s\u00e5 \u00e4r hela denna front i r\u00f6relse.<\/p>\n

Det blir inte en stor \u201dterr\u00e4ngvinst\u201d nu n\u00e4r vi \u00e4r lite bortsk\u00e4mda efter Kherson och Izyum men man har tr\u00f6ttat ut m\u00e5nga RU brigader inklusive VDV och man \u00f6ppnar d\u00e5 ett direkt hot mot Horlivka samt att RU m\u00e5ste bef\u00e4sta Svitlodarsk-Popasnalinjen f\u00f6r tar sig UA igenom den riktning Alchevsk s\u00e5 \u00e4r det ett projicerat hot mot staden Luhansk.<\/p>\n

Man kommer s\u00e5ledes att binda upp rysk trupp i det h\u00e4r omr\u00e5det SAMT \u00f6ppna ett hot mot staden Horlivka.<\/p>\n

D\u00e4r ans\u00e5g han som skrev den stora f\u00e4ltt\u00e5gsplanen vem det nu var att m\u00e5let med Bakhmut-offensiven var uppn\u00e5tt.<\/p>\n

Sen kanske det visar sig att dom haft slut p\u00e5 f\u00f6rband att bef\u00e4sta Svitlodarsk-Popasnalinjen med och d\u00e5 \u00e4r det v\u00e4l bara att gasa p\u00e5 men d\u00e4r \u00e4r vi inte \u00e4nnu \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

En biggie vi diskuterade f\u00f6r ett par dagar sedan var att 810 marininfanteri stred i fr\u00e4msta linjen vid s\u00f6dra fronten \u2013 dom var reserv vid Dneprfronten och d\u00e5 har man br\u00e4nt igenom mycket av reserverna redan och \u00e4ven de f\u00f6rband som borde strida i fr\u00e4msta linjen med marininfanteriet som insatsstyrka.<\/p>\n

Nu fick vi reda p\u00e5 att RU artillerield minskat rej\u00e4lt och man kan f\u00f6rst\u00e5 varf\u00f6r \u2013 utslagna dep\u00e5er och utslaget artilleri.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/itsartoir\/status\/1679568387360292867?s=46&t=4VUL9UNG-UfytUxqzeDy9A<\/a><\/p>\n

Artilleriet \u00e4r nog det sista RU har kvar, UA har f\u00f6rv\u00e4grat dom luftherrav\u00e4lde med sitt LV och dom \u00e4r snorkorta p\u00e5 h\u00e5rda fordon. Har man nu decimerat artilleriet s\u00e5 det \u00e4r en p\u00e5tagligt minskad eldgivning d\u00e5 \u00e4r ju s\u00e5 att s\u00e4ga spelplanen riggad f\u00f6r lite st\u00f6rre r\u00f6relser, f\u00f6rutsatt att man tar sig igenom minf\u00e4lten.<\/p>\n

Sen till \u00e4mnet sm\u00e5sura RU soldater vid s\u00f6dra fronten.
\n72nd Brigade (skulle inte f\u00f6rv\u00e5na mig om det \u00e4r hela \u00e5terst\u00e5ende brigaden vi ser p\u00e5 filmen \ud83e\udd23) \u00e4r inte glada alls.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1679570047209971714?s=46&t=4VUL9UNG-UfytUxqzeDy9A<\/a><\/p>\n

Och om ni s\u00e5g filmen med Popov, chefen 58CAA s\u00e5 kallade han f\u00f6rsvarsministeriet och \u00d6B f\u00f6r kriminella och inkompetenta \u2013 det var h\u00e5rda ord. Han hyllade ocks\u00e5 sina soldater som spartaner och gladiatorer vilket v\u00e4l var att ta i lite v\u00e4l mycket.<\/p>\n

Nu skriver frun att Popov f\u00f6rsvunnit efter att han rest f\u00f6r att f\u00e5 sina order men att hon inte \u00e4r orolig. Hon borde vara mycket orolig.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1679731579751485440?s=46&t=tatVTDmJmmyrLP7iyHG18A<\/a><\/p>\n

Kan Ukraina bara h\u00e5lla trycket uppe h\u00e4r s\u00e5 kommer det brista, Kadyroviterna l\u00e4gger ju benen p\u00e5 ryggen vid f\u00f6rsta skottet s\u00e5 dom \u00e4r v\u00e4rdel\u00f6sa. Wagner \u00e4r i stort sett borta fr\u00e5n aktiv strid.
\nDe sista +50 000st av (relativt) dugliga f\u00f6rband som fanns kvar i April 2023 decimeras nu dagligen.<\/p>\n

Dom har f\u00e5tt sk\u00f6ta f\u00f6rsvaret i f\u00f6rstalinjen ist\u00e4llet f\u00f6r att vara insatsstyrka och det finns bara en f\u00f6rklaring till det, arm\u00e9brigaderna och DPR\/LPR f\u00f6rbanden \u00e4r helt enkelt f\u00f6r slitna och klarar inte av sina stridsuppgifter.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r glasklart att s\u00f6dra fronten inte f\u00e5r f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar och utav de CAA som f\u00f6rsvarar s\u00f6dra fronten var v\u00e4l 5th CAA rej\u00e4lt s\u00f6nderslagen redan och nu har 58th CAA existentiella problem.<\/p>\n

Kring staden Donetsk \u00e4r det mycket DPR f\u00f6rband s\u00e5 det kan absolut ligga sanning i att man l\u00e4mnar m\u00f6rkaste Donbass till 1st och 2nd Army corps. Man g\u00f6r v\u00e4l det f\u00f6r att man v\u00e4ljer att f\u00f6rsvara Bakhmut och S\u00f6dra fronten och en quick fix \u00e4r d\u00e5 att \u00f6verl\u00e5ta ansvaret f\u00f6r m\u00f6rkaste Donbass p\u00e5 rebellerna och utg\u00e5 ifr\u00e5n att dom kommer l\u00f6sa uppgiften galant.
\nK\u00e4nns v\u00e4ldigt ryskt att t\u00e4nka s\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Faktum \u00e4r v\u00e4l att om ryska laget inte hade genomf\u00f6rt sin vinteroffensiv och att de nu inte hade varit on\u00f6digt offensiva med motanfall och avledande anfall s\u00e5 hade dom nog kunnat dra ut p\u00e5 det h\u00e4r kriget mycket l\u00e4ngre.
\nDock s\u00e5 k\u00e4nde dom i Januari att dom var hotade av UA vinteroffensiv och dom k\u00e4nner samma sak nu vilket \u00e4r str\u00e5lande. Som en r\u00e4vjakt ungef\u00e4r som bara kan sluta p\u00e5 ett s\u00e4tt.<\/p>\n

Ibland gl\u00f6mmer vi bort (hela v\u00e4sts) SOF som strider i Ukraina \u2013 \u00e4r det n\u00e5gon f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga UA st\u00e4rkt upp kontinuerligt s\u00e5 \u00e4r det SOF och sen har vi partisanr\u00f6relsen och de \u00e4nnu ljusskyggare grupperna som inte fastnar p\u00e5 bild.<\/p>\n

Eftersom ryssarna l\u00e5ter Spetznaz strida i grop i f\u00f6rsta linjen nu och deras egen SOF v\u00e4l inte \u00e4r speciellt talrik s\u00e5 kan man gissa att UA h\u00e4rjar rej\u00e4lt bakom frontlinjerna \u00f6verallt.<\/p>\n

Speciellt s\u00f6dra fronten har det funnits aktiv partisanverksamhet hela kriget och det f\u00f6rsvinner ryska soldater dagligen som ingen ser igen.<\/p>\n

Nedan text fr\u00e5n Tatarigami (ej hans v\u00e4l?) \u00e4r n\u00e4stan ett eko kring hur vi resonerar i tr\u00e5den kring vad som m\u00e5ste bli utfallet med det h\u00e4r kriget och faran med eftergifter.<\/p>\n

Vi har ju n\u00f6tt det h\u00e4r i ett \u00e5r i tr\u00e5den men har ju kommit fram till precis samma egentligen \u2013 all form av kompromiss kommer bara uppmuntra Putin till vidare er\u00f6vringar s\u00e5 det m\u00e5ste ta slut h\u00e4r och nu.<\/p>\n

(hur skriver man l\u00e5nga tweets f\u00f6rresten?)<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/tatarigami_ua\/status\/1679639665651986433?s=46&t=tatVTDmJmmyrLP7iyHG18A<\/a><\/p>\n

Det blir en l\u00e5ng sommar som sagt men det g\u00e5r stadigt fram\u00e5t f\u00f6r UA och kan v\u00e4st bara h\u00e5ll sig ifr\u00e5n att pratas omkull av Ryssland \u00e4r det h\u00e4r i m\u00e5l. Sedan tidigt Maj har UA haft hela initiativet och alla ryska f\u00f6rs\u00f6k till att st\u00f6ra ut har misslyckats.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:49 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d F\u00f6rr eller senare brister det!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:25 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

F\u00f6r eller senare brister det \u270a<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:36 \u2013 Johan No.1 Enligt tidigare s\u00e5 b\u00f6rjar det s\u00e5 sm\u00e5tt byggas upp mot ett genombrott. Vid Bakhmut \u00e4r RU […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7985","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraina","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"\n2023-07-14 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-07-14\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2023-07-14 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10:36 \u2013 Johan No.1 Enligt tidigare s\u00e5 b\u00f6rjar det s\u00e5 sm\u00e5tt byggas upp mot ett genombrott. 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