{"id":7991,"date":"2023-07-19T09:58:51","date_gmt":"2023-07-19T07:58:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-07-19-2\/"},"modified":"2023-07-19T09:58:51","modified_gmt":"2023-07-19T07:58:51","slug":"2023-07-19-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-07-19-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-07-19"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:44 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Jo jag k\u00e4nner ocks\u00e5 att man vill se mer h\u00e4nda vid fronterna men s\u00e5 h\u00e4r kommer kriget se ut tills rysk organiserad retr\u00e4tt (l\u00e4mna allt utom lastbil och fly). Precis s\u00e5 h\u00e4r satt vi med Kherson i m\u00e5nader och sen kollapsade hela fronten \u00f6ver natt i operation badanka som man som tur var dokumenterade n\u00e4r historierevisionisten Dengamle f\u00f6rs\u00f6kte h\u00e4vda att det aldrig h\u00e4nde.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r om\u00f6jligt att sia om tiden vid s\u00f6dra fronten men n\u00e4r UA brutit igenom och n\u00e5r Azov (direkt eld mot V-\u00d6 v\u00e4g med stridsvagn alternativt ypperlig indirekt eld och spaning) d\u00e5 \u00e4r det game-over f\u00f6r alla f\u00f6rband V om genombrottspunkten.<\/p>\n

\u00d6ver tid kommer dom retirera ned till Krim \u2013 det \u00e4r enda \u00e5terst\u00e5ende retr\u00e4ttv\u00e4gen dom har.<\/p>\n

Eftersom UA d\u00e5 brutit igenom alla f\u00f6rsvarslinjer kan dom b\u00f6rja trycka p\u00e5 mot v\u00e4st \u201dbakom\u201d hela s\u00f6dra fronten och g\u00f6r dom en rusning mot landbryggan ned till Krim t\u00f6ms nog s\u00f6dra fronten r\u00e4tt kvickt.<\/p>\n

Enligt han som skrev den stora f\u00e4ltt\u00e5gsplanen blir ju d\u00e5 f\u00f6rbanden inst\u00e4ngda p\u00e5 Krim alternativt retirerar \u00f6ver bron \u2013 han kan \u00e4n idag inte best\u00e4mma sig f\u00f6r vad som \u00e4r smartast, velig individ det d\u00e4r\u2026<\/p>\n

UA pluggar landbryggan ned till Krim med tv\u00e5 brigader och sen k\u00f6r dom \u00f6vriga +20st \u00e5t N\u00d6 till omr\u00e5det \u00f6ster om staden Donetsk l\u00e4ngs med UA landgr\u00e4ns som dom \u00e5terigen bef\u00e4ster.<\/p>\n

Vad skall RU g\u00f6ra d\u00e5?<\/p>\n

Dom har alla f\u00f6rband i aktiva fronter och helt pl\u00f6tsligt har det rivits upp ett enormt h\u00e5l i flanken som dom inte kan g\u00f6ra speciellt mycket \u00e5t.<\/p>\n

Det f\u00f6rsta dom m\u00e5ste g\u00f6ra \u00e4r att s\u00e4kra staden Rostov na Don s\u00e5 tillg\u00e4ngliga reserver g\u00e5r \u00e5t till det rimligen. Eftersom staden idag \u00e4r helt of\u00f6rsvarad kommer dom beh\u00f6va trycka in ett ansenligt antal brigader d\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Taskigt l\u00e4ge helt enkelt och det kommer g\u00e5 mycket snabbt n\u00e4r det h\u00e4nder.<\/p>\n

Bakhmut f\u00f6rst\u00e5r v\u00e4l alla binder ryska f\u00f6rband och \u00e4r en prestigesak snarare \u00e4n smart krigf\u00f6ring. Dom hade kunnat falla tillbaka till Severedonetsk \u2013 Popasnalinjen redan.<\/p>\n

Jag b\u00f6rjar f\u00e5 den distinkta k\u00e4nslan av att Ryssland har gett upp h\u00e4r. Ig\u00e5r postade MRF hur vi skrivit i tr\u00e5den 18 Juli 2022 och det fick mig att t\u00e4nka p\u00e5 vilken h\u00f6g ambitionsniv\u00e5 dom hade under h\u00f6sten f\u00f6r att stabilisera l\u00e4get i l\u00e5gpunkten i September. <\/p>\n

Man gav upp terr\u00e4ng, man bef\u00e4ste, man mobiliserade och man drog i alla politiska tr\u00e5dar som gick. Iran och andra levererade ammunition och man hade en genial plan f\u00f6r en v\u00e5ldsam vinteroffensiv som skulle \u00e4ndra hur v\u00e4rlden s\u00e5g p\u00e5 Ryssland.<\/p>\n

Man genomf\u00f6rde robotanfall med 100st varannan vecka och Ukraina fick jobba h\u00e5rt.<\/p>\n

Nu h\u00e4nger dom bara med huvudet och g\u00f6r ingenting n\u00e4r situationen \u00e4r v\u00e4rre \u00e4n f\u00f6r ett \u00e5r sedan.<\/p>\n

Diplomatin \u00e4r i trasor, Girkin pratar om revolution, Wagner gjorde halv-revolution, Ukraina invaderade Belgorod och Wagner drog sig ur. <\/p>\n

Man \u00e4r p\u00e5 god v\u00e4g att f\u00f6rlora Bakhmut, h\u00e4lften av bef\u00e4len vid s\u00f6dra fronten f\u00e5r sparken, VDV postar hotfulla videos till Shoigu och man har ammunitions-ransonering och krigar med T54-55\u2026<\/p>\n

N\u00e4r man vill straffa de upproriska ukrainarna med robotar f\u00e5r dom iv\u00e4g 16st\u2026
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1681544229489717249?s=46&t=KReYlIm8AYmeSRMNn-XuWw<\/a><\/p>\n

Det som har fungerat otrevligt bra \u00e4r alla mineringar men man vinner inga krig med minor.<\/p>\n

Det finns en sak Ryssland skulle kunna g\u00f6ra f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rl\u00e4nga det h\u00e4r kriget \u2013 f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar till s\u00f6dra fronten i stor m\u00e4ngd men det h\u00e4nder inte f\u00f6r det finns inga f\u00f6r man har inte mobiliserat.<\/p>\n

Ukraina har en s\u00e5n d\u00e4r gr\u00f6n v\u00e5g med trafiklysen just nu tycker jag, goda nyheter p\u00e5 goda nyheter.
\nVid Bakhmut \u00e4r ju Klischiivka i stort sett avklarat och bebyggelsen i Bakhmut \u00e4r bara en fr\u00e5ga om tid.
\nDeras offensiv vid Bakhmutfronten \u00e4r p\u00e5 \u00f6kande snarande \u00e4n fallande och d\u00e5 har dom h\u00e5llit p\u00e5 i 1.5 m\u00e5nad.<\/p>\n

Sen p\u00e5g\u00e5r purgen i ryssland efter prigozins f\u00f6rs\u00f6k till palatskupp och inte ens GRU klarar sig.c
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/glasnostgone\/status\/1681620278600687617?s=46&t=KReYlIm8AYmeSRMNn-XuWw<\/a><\/p>\n

Det har h\u00e4nt v\u00e4ldigt mycket sedan f\u00f6nstret f\u00f6r offensiv drog ig\u00e5ng 4 Maj 2023 och vi har lika l\u00e5ng tid kvar till markens b\u00e4righet m\u00f6jligen f\u00f6rs\u00e4mrats och d\u00e5 \u00e4r grovjobbet redan gjort.<\/p>\n

Positiv-Positiv s\u00e5ledes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:30 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Tack! <\/p>\n

\u00c4ven om man \u00e4r helt inst\u00e4lld p\u00e5 att det kommer att ta tid \u00e4r det l\u00e4tt att det t\u00e4r lite p\u00e5 hum\u00f6ret, n\u00e4r framg\u00e5ngarna visserligen kommer, men i sm\u00e5 sm\u00e5 steg. <\/p>\n

Man b\u00f6rjar fundera p\u00e5 hur m\u00e5nga m\u00e5nader det kommer att ta med den h\u00e4r takten.<\/p>\n

D\u00e5 \u00e4r det fint att du bjuder p\u00e5 ett Johan-piller och p\u00e5minner om att det kommer att brista till slut och d\u00e5 kommer det att g\u00e5 undan!<\/p>\n

Sj\u00e4lv gissade jag att det kommer att ske under f\u00f6rsta halvan av augusti. <\/p>\n

Har det inte h\u00e4nt n\u00e5got mer avg\u00f6rande n\u00e4r vi g\u00e5r in september finns viss risk att jag b\u00f6rjar tvivla..<\/p>\n

Men sommaren \u00e4r l\u00e5ng!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:32 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Tack!<\/p>\n

\u00c4ven om man \u00e4r helt inst\u00e4lld p\u00e5 att det kommer att ta tid \u00e4r det l\u00e4tt att det t\u00e4r lite p\u00e5 hum\u00f6ret, n\u00e4r framg\u00e5ngarna visserligen kommer, men i sm\u00e5 sm\u00e5 steg.<\/p>\n

Man b\u00f6rjar fundera p\u00e5 hur m\u00e5nga m\u00e5nader det kommer att ta med den h\u00e4r takten.<\/p>\n

D\u00e5 \u00e4r det fint att du bjussar p\u00e5 ett Johan-piller och p\u00e5minner om att det kommer att brista till slut och d\u00e5 kommer det att g\u00e5 undan!<\/p>\n

Sj\u00e4lv gissade jag att det kommer att ske under f\u00f6rsta halvan av augusti.<\/p>\n

Har det inte h\u00e4nt n\u00e5got mer avg\u00f6rande n\u00e4r vi g\u00e5r in september finns en liten risk att jag b\u00f6rjar tvivla..<\/p>\n

Men sommaren \u00e4r l\u00e5ng!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13:44 \u2013 Johan No.1 Jo jag k\u00e4nner ocks\u00e5 att man vill se mer h\u00e4nda vid fronterna men s\u00e5 h\u00e4r kommer 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