{"id":8039,"date":"2023-07-27T10:06:08","date_gmt":"2023-07-27T08:06:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-07-27\/"},"modified":"2023-07-27T10:06:08","modified_gmt":"2023-07-27T08:06:08","slug":"2023-07-27","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-07-27\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-07-27"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Idag \u00e4r det liten b\u00e5t f\u00f6r batymetri igen men det \u00e4r molnigt och svalt som omv\u00e4xling \u2013 ingen grillad hummer-k\u00e4nsla.<\/p>\n

Det f\u00f6rsta man g\u00f6r \u00e4r ju att scrolla igenom och se vad PerraG55 har skrivit som man missat \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Fick k\u00e4nslan ig\u00e5r att UA har l\u00e5tit de olika fronterna komma ikapp eller h\u00e4mta upp och att man nu f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker genomf\u00f6ra en koordinerad offensiv vid alla fronter inom ett relativt sn\u00e4vt tidsf\u00f6nster samtidigt som RU startade sin offensiv uppe i norra Luhansk.<\/p>\n

Vi har de tv\u00e5 anfallsvektorerna vid s\u00f6dra fronten som lyste upp dagar efter att UA fick ett st\u00f6rre genombrott vid Bakhmutfronten, och genombrottet kom dagar efter att RU startade sin offensiv vid norra fronten.<\/p>\n

V\u00e5ldsamt vid Bakhmut.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1684223230528069632?s=46&t=FLAUD1vxW7KGlnTV3gCZ4g<\/a><\/p>\n

Staromaiorske intaget (enligt ryssarna).
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1684470355497189377?s=46&t=zl2FxR98jlDXPy4_Xh9l4A<\/a><\/p>\n

Ovanp\u00e5 det \u00e4r proryska sidor oroade \u00f6ver \u00f6kad intensitet vid Dneprfronten.<\/p>\n

Det enda som saknas \u00e4r den tredje invasionen av Ryssland.<\/p>\n

Bra taktik k\u00e4nns det som \u2013 man \u00f6verbelastar v\u00e4l den ryska stridsledningen och hoppas att det brister n\u00e5gonstans.<\/p>\n

N\u00e4r v\u00e5roffensiven drog ig\u00e5ng 4 Maj med sitt f\u00f6nster f\u00f6r offensiva operationer s\u00e5 lyste de olika fronterna upp med veckors mellanrum och vid s\u00f6dra fronten var det ocks\u00e5 olika startdatum vid olika frontavsnitt. Jag t\u00e4nkte att arm\u00e9k\u00e5rer och brigader hade ganska stor frihet och hade ett f\u00f6nster att f\u00f6rh\u00e5lla sig till f\u00f6r att komma i ordning, det skall ju uppmarschas, f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpas, spanas f\u00f6r att till sist p\u00e5b\u00f6rja offensiva operationer.<\/p>\n

Nu fick vi ett par tre veckor av minr\u00f6jning, positionering och rotation och sen en koordinerad v\u00e5ldsam offensiv vid Bakhmut som f\u00f6ljs upp av mekanfall vid b\u00e5da anfallsvektorerna Melitopol och Mariupol och det \u00e4r sannolikt att intensiteten \u00f6kar vid Dneprfronten. Allt inom ett par dagar.<\/p>\n

Legendary level som sagt att kunna koordinera n\u00e5got s\u00e5dant mitt under brinnande krig.<\/p>\n

Ryssarna \u00e4r idag helt of\u00f6rm\u00f6gna till att ens koordinera anfall ordentligt vid en front, typ norra Luhansk.<\/p>\n

Motanfallen \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 helt hoppl\u00f6sa, n\u00e5t kompani f\u00e5r order att ta tillbaka en ort och k\u00f6r rakt in i ukrainskt f\u00f6rsvar och d\u00f6r den ryska hj\u00e4lted\u00f6den som \u00e4r direkt pinsam f\u00f6r alla andra utom de ryska historieskrivarna.<\/p>\n

Tydligen stod artilleriet f\u00f6r 70% av UA f\u00f6rluster under kriget s\u00e5 man f\u00f6rst\u00e5r att det var ett priorietrat m\u00e5l.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/shashj\/status\/1684203209269583874?s=46&t=FLAUD1vxW7KGlnTV3gCZ4g<\/a><\/p>\n

Om man skall g\u00e5 bort sig i konspirationer s\u00e5 b\u00f6rjade Putin gripa massa oponionsbildare precis innan intensiteten \u00f6kade hos UA men det g\u00f6r vi inte.<\/p>\n

On topic \u2013 jag tror att ryssarna \u00e4r ordentligt skakade, m\u00e4ngden h\u00f6gre bef\u00e4l som f\u00e5r sparken tyder p\u00e5 att bef\u00e4len fr\u00e5ng\u00e5tt \u00f6verlevnadsinstinkten (f\u00f6r att dom m\u00e5ste) och redogjort f\u00f6r situationen inom sitt omr\u00e5de f\u00f6r sina chefer.<\/p>\n

Nu senat r\u00f6k ju chefen Bakhmutfronten.<\/p>\n

Gerasimov m\u00f6ter exakt alla bef\u00e4ls b\u00f6ner om f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar med att ge dom sparken \u2013 b\u00e5de chef och ledare russian style.<\/p>\n

Finns en annan vinkel p\u00e5 det, hade han haft reserver hade han ju bara skickat dom ist\u00e4llet eller hur?<\/p>\n

Prigozin som \u00e4r street-smart fick sin out innan det h\u00e4r b\u00f6rjade och han har meddelat oss m\u00e5nga g\u00e5nger vad som skulle h\u00e4nda. <\/p>\n

Enligt han som skrev den stora f\u00e4ltt\u00e5gsplanen beh\u00f6vs Azovst\u00f6ten f\u00f6r att skaka om RU tillr\u00e4ckligt f\u00f6r att det med lite tur skall kunna blir en bubblare, arm\u00e9n v\u00e4ljer liv eller palatskupp ligger h\u00f6gt upp.<\/p>\n

\u00c4r dom s\u00e5 pass tr\u00f6ga som dom varit hittills s\u00e5 det inte blir en bubblare, d\u00e5 har UA befriat hela s\u00f6dra fronten v\u00e4ster om kilen ned till Azov, Krim \u00e4r f\u00f6rlorat (eller isolerat snarare), man g\u00e5r upp mot m\u00f6rkaste Donbass och norra Luhansk tuffar p\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Mina pengar \u00e4r p\u00e5 att det r\u00e4cker med Azovst\u00f6ten men skulle det visa sig att det inte g\u00f6r det \u00e4r det bara en fr\u00e5ga om tid f\u00f6r kriget \u00e4r ohj\u00e4lpligt f\u00f6rlorat f\u00f6r RU efter Azovst\u00f6ten (anser han som skrev den stora f\u00e4ltt\u00e5gsplanen).<\/p>\n

Skall bli MYCKET sp\u00e4nnande att se hur RU mobiliseringen g\u00e5r, frivilligmobiliseringen gick som v\u00e4ntat mot noll.
\nDet betyder att dom m\u00e5ste g\u00e5 h\u00e5rdh\u00e4nt fram den h\u00e4r g\u00e5ngen \u2013 v\u00e4ggarna i tryckkokaren buktar ut\u00e5t.<\/p>\n

Om mobiliseringen b\u00f6rjar tidig h\u00f6st \u00e4r det tv\u00e5 m\u00e5nader tills f\u00f6rband befinner sig i grop rimligen eftersom man redan avverkat alla som inte beh\u00f6vde tr\u00e4ning och kunde skickas direkt?<\/p>\n

Som sagts m\u00e5nga g\u00e5nger \u2013 Ukraina drar sitt str\u00e5 till stacken p\u00e5 legendary level. V\u00e4st m\u00e5ste in med fler brottsm\u00e5l i Haag, ut\u00f6ka sanktionerna mot individer och utlova mer vapen s\u00e5 tar det h\u00e4r kriget slut r\u00e4tt fort.<\/p>\n

\u00c4ven en rysk large size m\u00e4skdunk oligark har en gr\u00e4ns, \u00f6ka trycket tills han brakar \u00f6ver den och jagar efter Putin svingandes sin samovar.<\/p>\n

\u00c4mnet ur\u00e5ldrig materiel s\u00e5 k\u00f6r ryssarna in s\u00e5nt som skulle st\u00e5 p\u00e5 museum nu.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1684436880232706049?s=46&t=zl2FxR98jlDXPy4_Xh9l4A<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00c4ven vid s\u00f6dra fronten har dom materielbrist f\u00f6r dom har gamla PV kanoner i f\u00f6rsvar d\u00e4r (rapira?), bra att veta.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1684471776061816833?s=46&t=zl2FxR98jlDXPy4_Xh9l4A<\/a><\/p>\n

En indikation p\u00e5 att man avser \u00f6ka intensiteten \u00e4r att Zelensky tr\u00e4ffat alla bef\u00e4lhavare och f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt motivera med f\u00f6delsedagspresent och annat \u2013 chef och ledare p\u00e5 riktigt.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/christopherjm\/status\/1684475108331589633?s=46&t=zl2FxR98jlDXPy4_Xh9l4A<\/a><\/p>\n

Intressant artikel i FT som ju varit uppe men tv\u00e5a \u00e4r mitt liv.<\/p>\n

Jag tog med mig att ryktet om att man anv\u00e4nder SOF som skytte verkar st\u00e4mma och det signalerar f\u00f6r mig att UA g\u00e5r all in h\u00e4r i denna offensiv.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 en intressant filosofi \u2013 inga \u00e4r b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n andra och n\u00e4r de kr\u00e4vs delar vi grop.<\/p>\n

Ryssarna har ju en hel stege priviliegierade niv\u00e5er som skulle f\u00e5 indierna att sk\u00e4mmas \u00f6ver sitt kastsystem.<\/p>\n

Det signalerar ocks\u00e5 att man t\u00e4nkt sig vinna kriget.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/glasnostgone\/status\/1684463813855178752?s=46&t=zl2FxR98jlDXPy4_Xh9l4A<\/a><\/p>\n

Euforin n\u00e4r man sitter i en liten b\u00e5t och guppar runt \u00e4r sv\u00e5r att h\u00e5lla liv i men vid Bakhmut verkar man bara ha b\u00f6rjat och k\u00f6r nu fram mekaniserade f\u00f6rband. Mina sista pengar som elunderklass \u00e4r p\u00e5 att vi ocks\u00e5 bara sett f\u00f6rsta stegen vid s\u00f6dra fronten nu n\u00e4r intensiteten \u00f6kar.<\/p>\n

Enligt den stora f\u00e4ltt\u00e5gsplanen s\u00e5 var det tre anfallsvektorer vid den s\u00f6dra fronten. En var ned V om NS flod mot Melitopol.<\/p>\n

Den andra var i h\u00f6gl\u00e4nt terr\u00e4ng \u00d6 om Melitopol och den tredje S\u00d6 om Vuhledar.<\/p>\n

Nu har dom inte anfallit S\u00d6 om Vuhledar utan en bit v\u00e4ster om staden ist\u00e4llet. Han som skrev den stora f\u00e4ltt\u00e5gsplanen \u00e4r lite sur p\u00e5 det.<\/p>\n

D\u00e5 dom tagit Staromaiorske tyder det p\u00e5 h\u00f6g ambitionsniv\u00e5 och d\u00e4r \u00e4r det en bit \u00f6ver 10km till f\u00f6rstalinjen och sen \u00e4r dom igenom.<\/p>\n

N\u00e5gra reserver verkar det inte finnas d\u00e5 VDV, Marininfanteriet, Spetznaz och Spaning redan ligger i groparna och oroat sneglar bort mot skogen allt motorljud kommer ifr\u00e5n.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:04 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d Trycket \u00f6kar och vi ser att det brister s\u00e5 sm\u00e5tt, fr\u00e4mst vid Bakhmut.<\/p>\n

Skulle vara fint med Belgorod. Sen undrar jag om Ukraina kanske har n\u00e5got annat p\u00e5 g\u00e5ng som kan \u00f6verraska alla.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:11 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

En CV90 verkar bekr\u00e4ftat utslagen p\u00e5 filmen.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/oplatsen\/status\/1684503598258847745?s=46&t=zl2FxR98jlDXPy4_Xh9l4A<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:13 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

\u00d6kad intensitet om inte annat?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:15 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Trist!<\/p>\n

Inden h\u00e4r tr\u00e5den l\u00e4ngre ner finns en karta som visar var det h\u00e4nde. <\/p>\n

\u201dStrf-90 In action.
\nEnds up getting hit by ATGM before the video is cut.\u201d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/DefMon3\/status\/1684500321031053312?t=pnj5y_dQYN3mw9fYqTlOSg&s=19<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

V\u00e4rdel\u00f6st att v\u00e4st inget gett spetsflyg \u00e4nnu<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpress\/status\/1684504148623101953?s=46&t=zl2FxR98jlDXPy4_Xh9l4A<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Var den h\u00e4r uppe att RU anv\u00e4nder ammunition fr\u00e5n Myanmar?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1684268416255811584?s=46&t=FLAUD1vxW7KGlnTV3gCZ4g<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:32 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Nej, du \u00e4r f\u00f6rst!<\/p>\n

Trist att se att de kan f\u00e5 tag p\u00e5 ammunition lite varstans, samtidigt ett tecken p\u00e5 att de b\u00f6rjar f\u00e5 slut p\u00e5 de egna lagren.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:33 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Inst\u00e4mmer!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:37 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

\ud83d\ude2e tv\u00e5 g\u00e5nger p\u00e5 en dag, ikv\u00e4ll blir det fest.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Fr\u00e5gar igen \u2013 de vanliga suspects p\u00e5 twitter har nu en ny f\u00f6rbandskarta som \u00e4r i det d\u00e4r googleformatet som kartan med fortifikationerna var. Dom klipper in den till sina poster.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r ju alltid printscreens s\u00e5 undrar om n\u00e5gon har l\u00e4nken?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Jag k\u00e4nner att alla kompisar visste om partyt och att jag inte \u00e4r bjuden.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
13:39 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

\ud83c\udf7a<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Om man anser muslimer vara en folkgrupp kommer folkgrupperna; hinduer, norrm\u00e4n, kristna, danskar, \u00f6stersj\u00f6fiskare, cypritoter och n\u00e5gra hundra till kr\u00e4va att f\u00e5 vara inkluderade som folkgrupp- under lagen och h\u00e4nvisa till prejudikatet att man ansett muslimer vara en folkgrupp.<\/p>\n

Det blir snabbt olagligt att inte gilla fisk, vi m\u00e5ste sluta \u00e4ta kor, alla m\u00e5ste hylla att semestra i danmark p\u00e5 vintern och vid n\u00e5gon mygg-pl\u00e5gad sj\u00f6 i finland p\u00e5 sommaren f\u00f6r annars man sig skyldig till hets mot folkgrupp.<\/p>\n

Kan bli r\u00f6rigt det d\u00e4r \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Wagner p\u00e5 v\u00e4g tilbaka till afrika<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/kromark\/status\/1684591240061284357?s=46&t=4gYWwKqVN3qwlcTcRol7RA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Om n\u00e5gon tvivlade p\u00e5 att Seymor Hersh var en hatisk proryss.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpr\/status\/1684590149869645824?s=46&t=4gYWwKqVN3qwlcTcRol7RA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Imgen \u00e4r orolig f\u00f6r counter battery fire<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1684633126109151232?s=46&t=FYgOkuDk6YUtFSnAjbeS8A<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:38 \u2013 Johan No.1 Idag \u00e4r det liten b\u00e5t f\u00f6r batymetri igen men det \u00e4r molnigt och svalt som omv\u00e4xling 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