{"id":8056,"date":"2023-08-12T09:58:51","date_gmt":"2023-08-12T07:58:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-08-12\/"},"modified":"2023-08-12T09:58:51","modified_gmt":"2023-08-12T07:58:51","slug":"2023-08-12","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-08-12\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-08-12"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Vi har ju skrivit en del att Ukraina \u00e4r ostoppbara och allt det men sen sprider sig oron f\u00f6r att dom inte tar mil per dag.
\nUkraina har f\u00e5tt v\u00e4ldigt lite NATOmateriel j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med totalen s\u00e5 dom strider till stor del med gammalt \u00f6stpansar och \u201ddum\u201d artilleriammunition.<\/p>\n

Dom har sj\u00e4lva utvecklat ett fattigmans dr\u00f6narvapen som \u00e4r ohyggligt effektivt och som egentligen ersatt flygets roll tillsammans med m\u00e5lstyrd ammunition \u2013 man spanar med dr\u00f6nare och sen f\u00e5r man tr\u00e4ffen i m\u00e5let p\u00e5 djupet med n\u00e5got av de l\u00e5ngdistansvapen man har inklusive dr\u00f6nare.<\/p>\n

Man har f\u00f6rv\u00e4grat ryssarna luftherrav\u00e4lde genom LV.<\/p>\n

Efter den f\u00f6rsta testen d\u00e4r dom k\u00f6rde rakt in i minf\u00e4lten och blev utslagna med m\u00e5lstyrd ammunition och sj\u00e4lvmordsdr\u00f6nare var det uppanbart att RU dels hade f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga kvar vid s\u00f6dra fronten vilket dom inte hade uppvisat vid Bakhmut samt att deras minf\u00e4lt var svindlande t\u00e4ta och djupa.<\/p>\n

Finns ingen arm\u00e9 i v\u00e4rlden som hade kunnat bryta igenom den med ett genombrott enligt NATOdoktrin och det f\u00f6rst\u00e5r de flesta seri\u00f6sa bed\u00f6mare.<\/p>\n

Det g\u00e5r ett rykte som s\u00e4ger att v\u00e4st kr\u00e4vde att Ukraina skulle strida enligt NATOdoktrin vilket dom d\u00e5 f\u00f6rs\u00f6kte och sen gav dom upp det \u2013 st\u00e4mmer det s\u00e5 kr\u00e4ver det sin man att g\u00e5 emot NATO och tro p\u00e5 sig sj\u00e4lv. Det \u00e4r m\u00e5nga som hade fortsatt och sen sagt \u201dnu har vi gjort vad vi kunnat\u201d.<\/p>\n

R\u00e4tt omg\u00e5ende b\u00f6rjade dom v\u00e4l strida som i Normandie k\u00e4nns det som?<\/p>\n

Om vi g\u00f6r ett nedslag i Staromaiorske och hur dom strider d\u00e4r \u2013<\/p>\n

Hela kriget har egentligen handlat om att ta och h\u00e5lla dominerande terr\u00e4ng eller f\u00e5 en spr\u00e5ngbr\u00e4da fram\u00e5t fr\u00e5n dominerande terr\u00e4ng.<\/p>\n

N\u00e4r Ukraina breddar och sl\u00e5r ut fickor s\u00e5 t\u00e4nker man alltid att varf\u00f6r forts\u00e4tter dom inte p\u00e5 djupet men dom skapar en domino-effekt av att ge dom tillg\u00e5ng till ett skogsb\u00e4lte, kulle eller dalg\u00e5ng s\u00e5 dom kan komma in i flanken p\u00e5 n\u00e4sta samh\u00e4lle och s\u00e5 jobbar dom sig fram\u00e5t.<\/p>\n

Det ryska f\u00f6rsvaret \u00e4r som isolerade \u00f6ar som inte l\u00e4r sig mycket.
\nIg\u00e5r fick vi l\u00e4ra oss att ett f\u00f6rband hade varit vid fronten i 10 m\u00e5nader men inte f\u00e5tt n\u00e5got tr\u00e4ning ut\u00f6ver en m\u00e5nad i b\u00f6rjan.<\/p>\n

Ukraina anv\u00e4nder dr\u00f6narvapnet extensivt nu, dom rekar st\u00e4llningar och dom genomf\u00f6r spaningsstrider f\u00f6r att dra ut f\u00f6rsvaret. \u00d6ver tid ser man v\u00e4l vilka som g\u00e5r till och fr\u00e5n.<\/p>\n

Ryssarna har fortfarande sina f\u00f6rl\u00e4ggningar och f\u00f6rr\u00e5d i de hus som finns i ett samh\u00e4lle.<\/p>\n

Ukraina sl\u00e5r sen ut f\u00f6rl\u00e4ggningar och f\u00f6rr\u00e5d.<\/p>\n

Dom klustrar v\u00e4rnssystemen.<\/p>\n

Och sen in med skytte i grupp eller pluton som l\u00e4mnas av h\u00e5rda fordon som sen ger underst\u00f6d eller retirerar.<\/p>\n

Dom b\u00f6rjar bli mycket duktiga p\u00e5 det h\u00e4r. F\u00e4ltm\u00e4ssigheten j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med b\u00f6rjan av kriget \u00e4r eoner b\u00e4ttre.
\nDe h\u00e5rda fordonen r\u00f6r sig b\u00e4ttre och elden i m\u00e5let \u00e4r effektiv.
\nAllt styrs med dr\u00f6nare i realtid.<\/p>\n

Ett samh\u00e4lle eller v\u00e4rnsystem \u00e4r en isolerad \u00f6 hos ryssarna verkar det som. Dom har inte lyckats skapa effektiva \u00f6verlappande skottf\u00e4lt med n\u00e4rPV eller IFV, MBT utan plutonen sitter d\u00e4r helt ensamma.<\/p>\n

Ukrainas f\u00f6rluster i h\u00e5rda fordon \u00e4r till stor det n\u00e4r dom fastnar i minf\u00e4lt och ryssarna i lugn och ro kan leda in indirekt eld.<\/p>\n

Sen f\u00e5r v\u00e4l f\u00f6rsvaret i undantagsfall iv\u00e4g ett RPG skott som tr\u00e4ffar olyckligt som med den d\u00e4r CV90.<\/p>\n

Vad jag minns fr\u00e5n tidigare krig s\u00e5 tog alltid f\u00f6rsvaret proprtionellt st\u00f6rre f\u00f6rluster i den h\u00e4r typen av utklassnings-krigf\u00f6ring och det \u00e4r det Ukraina kommunicerar ut\u00e5t, 1:5 i f\u00f6rluster f\u00f6rdel dom.<\/p>\n

Dom f\u00f6rlorar ingenting p\u00e5 att reka och sen sl\u00e5 ut statiskt f\u00f6rsvar och det h\u00e4r diskuterade vi ing\u00e5ende under 2022 \u2013 lite raljerande att ett batteri 777 sl\u00e5r ut en BTG i f\u00f6rsvar p\u00e5 en f\u00f6rmiddag om dom hoppar \u00f6ver kaffepausen.<\/p>\n

Vid sj\u00e4lva anfallet mot v\u00e4rnsystemen \u00e4r f\u00f6rsvaret redan decimerat och stridsledningen vet i stort sett precis hur f\u00f6rsvaret ser ut och leder in anfallande styrka.<\/p>\n

P\u00e5 de filmer vi sett f\u00e5r anfallande pluton n\u00e5n eller n\u00e5gra s\u00e5rade och dussintals ryssar \u00e4r d\u00f6da, s\u00e5rade eller tillf\u00e5ngatagna.<\/p>\n

Dagligen adderas det h\u00e4r upp till de f\u00f6rlustsiffror oraklet MXT postar och f\u00f6rlusterna \u00e4r mycket k\u00e4nnbara.<\/p>\n

M\u00e5nga g\u00f6r felet att tro att ryssarna kan ers\u00e4tta det dom f\u00f6rlorar i all o\u00e4ndlighet och f\u00f6rbiser alla tecken p\u00e5 att dom \u00e4r korta p\u00e5 reserver. F\u00f6r 1.5 \u2013 2 m\u00e5nader sedan k\u00f6rde dom den offensiva reserven fr\u00e5n Dniprofronten till s\u00f6dra fronten och det hade dom inte gjort om dom inte hade resursbrist.<\/p>\n

Ukrainas dr\u00f6nar-grupper spanar hela tiden framf\u00f6r sina linjer och varje natt \u00e4r det dr\u00f6nardroppad vinggranat p\u00e5 det dom hittar.<\/p>\n

Vi ser att dom sl\u00e5r ut enskild soldat varje dag s\u00e5 dom har helt klart resurser.<\/p>\n

Mer h\u00f6gv\u00e4rdiga m\u00e5l f\u00e5r indirekt eld ta hand om.<\/p>\n

Dom jobbar sig fram\u00e5t genom att ta dominerande terr\u00e4ng som ger dom tillg\u00e5ng till n\u00e4sta bit dominerande terr\u00e4ng.<\/p>\n

Det finns ingen omv\u00e4g kring att dom m\u00e5ste storma v\u00e4rnsystem men dom b\u00f6rjar bli legendarylevel p\u00e5 det nu g\u00e5r n\u00e4stan p\u00e5 rutin. <\/p>\n

Tittar man p\u00e5 kartan och f\u00f6ljer skogspartier eller dalar s\u00e5 ser man att Staromlynivka ligger l\u00f6st till och att Staromaiorske var den sv\u00e5ra orten att inta. Ryssarna hade v\u00e4l minerat det omr\u00e5det mest och sen f\u00f6rsvarade dom h\u00f6jderna som UA beh\u00f6vde ta sig upp p\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Nu h\u00f6r vi om JDAM och vi vet vilka indirekta f\u00f6rm\u00e5gor UA har tillg\u00e5ng till och huvudlinjen som dom snart \u00e4r framme och nosar p\u00e5 \u00e4r mer av samma.<\/p>\n

Har dom byggt bunkrar s\u00e5 har Ukraina JDAM och snart Taurus.<\/p>\n

Om nu Ukraina fick klusterammunition s\u00e5 finns det mer i USA som \u00e4r en flygning bort om det beh\u00f6vs.
\nSl\u00e4pp l\u00f6s Tora-Bora arsenalen \u00f6ver Suvorikin-linjen.<\/p>\n

Ett statiskt f\u00f6rsvar \u00e4r en svaghet d\u00e5 allt kan loggas och sl\u00e5s ut.<\/p>\n

Man m\u00e5ste f\u00f6ra en dynamisk f\u00f6rsvarsstrid och RU har f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt det s\u00e5 gott dom kan men det r\u00e4cker inte till. Dom f\u00e5r inte stopp p\u00e5 Ukraina n\u00e5gonstans. <\/p>\n

Nu kan man kanske resonera som s\u00e5 att f\u00f6rsvarsstrid \u00e4r just att \u00f6verge positioner mot UA f\u00f6rluster och antingen bromsa energin i anfallet tills det tar stopp eller k\u00f6pa sig tid tills man f\u00e5tt fram reserver eller lyckas tvinga fram en fred.<\/p>\n

S\u00e5 har ju Ukraina stridit hela kriget \u2013 decimerat RU och k\u00f6pt tid.<\/p>\n

Problemet f\u00f6r RU \u00e4r att i denna f\u00f6rsvarsstrid tar dom 5ggr st\u00f6rre f\u00f6rluster \u00e4n anfallande part och dom har inte 5ggr h\u00f6gre numer\u00e4r s\u00e5 UA kommer inte f\u00e5 slut p\u00e5 gas.<\/p>\n

Strider dom f\u00f6r tid \u00e4r det ocks\u00e5 meningsl\u00f6st f\u00f6r dom har inte mer materiel och kommer inte heller mobilisera.<\/p>\n

Att prata omkull v\u00e4st var deras sista kort att spela ut men det har, min \u00e5sikt, misslyckats nu.<\/p>\n

Vi har nu kommit till punkten d\u00e4r det m\u00e5ste vara glasklart f\u00f6r den politiska ledningen i Ryssland, stridsledningen kriget och alla med lite inflytande i Ryssland att kriget \u00e4r o\u00e5terkalleligen f\u00f6rlorat.<\/p>\n

Det f\u00f6rhindrar inte att dom g\u00f6r som dom alltid gjort och k\u00f6r rakt in i kaklet men det \u00e4r allm\u00e4nt k\u00e4nt nu \u00e4r min gissning och d\u00e5 kan precis vadsomhelst h\u00e4nda n\u00e4rsomhelst.<\/p>\n

Perpetua g\u00f6r ett allvarligt f\u00f6rs\u00f6k att summera det han hittar i f\u00f6rluster per dag, alltid minst dubbla f\u00f6r RU.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andrewperpetua\/status\/1690217976748761088?s=46&t=_rlQrblsdLY8qPppLktimg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:13 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Tack f\u00f6r en fin l\u00e4gesrapport!\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:08 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Tack sj\u00e4lv \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13:23 \u2013 Johan No.1 Vi har ju skrivit en del att Ukraina \u00e4r ostoppbara och allt det men sen sprider 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