{"id":8061,"date":"2023-08-16T10:03:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-16T08:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-08-16\/"},"modified":"2023-08-16T10:03:00","modified_gmt":"2023-08-16T08:03:00","slug":"2023-08-16","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-08-16\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-08-16"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:50 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Nu tycker jag alla seri\u00f6sa bed\u00f6mare v\u00e4rda sitt namn b\u00f6rjar vikta \u00f6ver till att det \u00e4r skarpt l\u00e4ge f\u00f6r ryska f\u00f6rsvaret vid Zaporiziafronten och Dneprfronten.<\/p>\n

Vid Bakhmut f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker RU genomf\u00f6ra motanfall mot \u00e5tertagna mycket formidabla fortifikationer i dominerande terr\u00e4ng och det g\u00e5r mycket d\u00e5ligt.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r s\u00e5ledes vid Bakhmutfronten f\u00f6r tidigt att tala om skarpt l\u00e4ge d\u00e5 RU f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker genomf\u00f6ra motanfall fortfarande men Klischiivka kommer aldrig att \u00e5tertas.<\/p>\n

M\u00e4ngden offensiva UA brigader i omr\u00e5det \u00e4r mycket stor men jag tror alla har f\u00f6rst\u00e5tt syftet med Bakhmut nu och att alla kan vara r\u00e4tt n\u00f6jda.<\/p>\n

Om man inte helt missf\u00f6rst\u00e5tt detta s\u00e5 \u00e4r V flanken vid Staromaiorske n\u00e4sta att uts\u00e4ttas, Pryitne kommer v\u00e4l falla som en mogen frukt och sen Novodonetske p\u00e5 den \u00d6 sidan samtidigt som man trycker p\u00e5 S om Staromaiorske.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r en stor bredd p\u00e5 det genombrott Ukraina nu h\u00e5ller p\u00e5 att skapa sig i det omr\u00e5det och man kommer kunna h\u00e5lla flankerna samt ha artilleripositioner inom framryckningsomr\u00e5det.<\/p>\n

Jag tjatar dagligen om det h\u00e4r men om det inte kommer rapporter om l\u00e5nga RU fordonskolonner genom Mariupol mycket snart blir det genombrott.<\/p>\n

Vi vet nu enligt anekdotiska ber\u00e4ttelser fr\u00e5n h\u00e4stens mun (rysk soldat med d\u00e5lig tandv\u00e5rd) att man bef\u00e4st huvudf\u00f6rsvarslinjen med andra och tredjesorteringen.<\/p>\n

Vi vet ocks\u00e5 att Ukraina f\u00f6r fram ytterligare indirekta f\u00f6rm\u00e5gor till s\u00f6dra fronten och 24\/7 klustrar sk1ten ur det ryska h\u00e4ngiga f\u00f6rsvaret.<\/p>\n

Faktum \u00e4r v\u00e4l att ryska soldater f\u00e5r uppleva rysk artilleridoktrin med att utpl\u00e5na kilometerruta just nu och dom vantrivs n\u00e5got oerh\u00f6rt.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6rsvaret vid Staromaiorske \u00e4r det starkaste RU har l\u00e4ngs med hela s\u00f6dra fronten och det viker.<\/p>\n

Det omr\u00e5de som ryssarna nu \u00e4r p\u00e5 god v\u00e4g att f\u00f6rlora \u00e4r 35%-40% av kvarvarande ryskockuperat territorium med den tillh\u00f6rande bonusen att Krim direkt blir oh\u00e5llbart och att UA kan \u00f6ppna upp en ny anfallsvektor rakt in i Donbass mjuka delar som saknar fortifikationer och som \u00e4r uselt f\u00f6rsvarat.<\/p>\n

Inte f\u00f6r inte som det d\u00f6ptes till \u201dschackdraget\u201d av han som skrev den stora f\u00e4ltt\u00e5gsplanen.<\/p>\n

Som s\u00e5 o\u00e4ndligt m\u00e5nga g\u00e5nger har diskuterats vet ju ingen n\u00e4r Ryssland v\u00e4nder sig in\u00e5t. Min gissning har varit att Azovst\u00f6ten och den efterf\u00f6ljande retr\u00e4tten eller kapitulationen av Krim skulle r\u00e4cka.<\/p>\n

G\u00f6r det inte det \u00e5terst\u00e5r d\u00e5 m\u00f6rkaste Donbass d\u00e4r man kommer in s\u00f6derifr\u00e5n i of\u00f6rsvarad terr\u00e4ng och uppe i norra Luhansk.<\/p>\n

Har RU inte mobiliserat n\u00e5gonting i h\u00f6st v\u00e4rt namnet s\u00e5 kommer deras fortsatta f\u00f6rsvar rasa ihop r\u00e4tt fort.
\nNarrativet att det h\u00e4r skulle ta flera \u00e5r till \u00e4r osannolikt och g\u00e4ller bara om RU f\u00e5r tillst\u00e5nd en substantiell mobilisering i September som resurss\u00e4tts och g\u00e5r som en v\u00e4loljad lada.<\/p>\n

Sannolikheten f\u00f6r att det skall h\u00e4nda \u00e4r noll.<\/p>\n

Norra Luhansk brottar man till sig genom att g\u00e5 rakt in i Belgorod p\u00e5 bred front.<\/p>\n

M\u00f6rkaste Donbass brottar man till sig genom att projicera ett hot mot Rostov na Don.<\/p>\n

Den st\u00e4ndige kanarief\u00e5geln i kolgruvan Rybar tar bladet fr\u00e5n munnen och resonerar kring offensiv mot Azov i n\u00e4rtid.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/rybar_force\/status\/1691453315547312128?s=46&t=YM7Ooxy3LSo2S3fxRzJWNg<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/rybar_force\/status\/1691453317380198401?s=46&t=YM7Ooxy3LSo2S3fxRzJWNg<\/a><\/p>\n

Nu har v\u00e4l Girkin fullt upp med att \u00f6verleva i f\u00e4ngelse kan man gissa och han fick v\u00e4l ett passande slut men det l\u00e4mnade efter sig ett visst tomrum i negativa beskrivningar av hur d\u00e5ligt kriget g\u00e5r.
\nJag har fortfarande sv\u00e5rt att ta in att Prigozin lever som en v\u00e4lbetald prins och Girkin \u00e4r f\u00e4ngslad.
\nSen gick ju ryktet att n\u00e5gon annan skulle ta \u00f6ver Wagner f\u00f6r n\u00e5n vecka sedan s\u00e5 inget \u00e4r vad det ser ut att vara hos den ryska l\u00f6ken.<\/p>\n

Sen vet jag inte om det h\u00e4r diskuterats med Ukraina forts\u00e4tter s\u00e4tta upp nya f\u00f6rband, mekbrigader och airborne. Jag gissar att baserna har resurser till tr\u00e4ning och att man kan forts\u00e4tta pumpa ut nya man\u00f6verbrigader i en j\u00e4mn str\u00f6m.
\nDet signalerar att man kan resurss\u00e4tta dom med personliga vapen, uniformer, fordon och framf\u00f6rallt rekryter.
\nDet kan nog h\u00e4nda att man f\u00e5r in ans\u00f6kningar fr\u00e5n territorial och frivilligbataljonerna l\u00f6pande och sen p\u00e5g\u00e5r v\u00e4l mobilisering fortfarande.<\/p>\n

En till anledning att UA g\u00e5r f\u00f6r en win nu \u00e4r att soldaterna haft mycket lite semester p\u00e5 1.5\u00e5r och det finns risk att krigstr\u00f6tthet sprider sig.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/sashotodorov1\/status\/1691445675211243520?s=46&t=brJehpHT72zBEQQNfdMUWA<\/a><\/p>\n

Sen luftas det fr\u00e5n fler \u00e4n ett h\u00e5ll att UA skall avst\u00e5 land f\u00f6r fred s\u00e5 absolut att avg\u00f6ra nu \u00e4r av vikt.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1691515708750876672?s=46&t=YM7Ooxy3LSo2S3fxRzJWNg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:18 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Tack f\u00f6r l\u00e4gesrapporten! Den stora f\u00e4ltt\u00e5gsplanen rullar p\u00e5!<\/p>\n

Jag g\u00e5r och v\u00e4ntar p\u00e5 n\u00e5got ov\u00e4ntat, kanske Belgorod eller n\u00e5gon ny anfallsvektor. F\u00e5r en k\u00e4nsla av att man nog har n\u00e5got ess till i skjort\u00e4rmen att dra fram som vi inte sett \u00e4n.<\/p>\n

N\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller roteringen, tycker jag att man \u00e4nd\u00e5 sett m\u00e5nga filmer fr\u00e5n de som \u00e5terv\u00e4nt fr\u00e5n fronten och tr\u00e4ffat familjer mm. Jag tror att man f\u00f6rst\u00e5r vikten av att f\u00e5 n\u00e5gra veckors vila d\u00e5 och d\u00e5. Sen t\u00e4r det f\u00f6rst\u00e5s \u00e4nd\u00e5 att ligga ute i f\u00e4lt s\u00e5 pass l\u00e4nge men det \u00e4r nog betydligt v\u00e4rre f\u00f6r ryssarna.
\nDe enda man h\u00f6rt f\u00e5tt komma hem igen n\u00e4r de g\u00e4ller dem \u00e4r f\u00e5ngarna som hamnade hos Wagner. D\u00e4r tycks man ju h\u00e5llit sitt ord och sl\u00e4ppt dem efter 6 m\u00e5nader. Sen hade nog ryska befolkningen helst velat att det var tv\u00e4rtom.. Att f\u00e5ngarna f\u00e5tt stanna vid fronten och den vanliga ryska soldaten f\u00e5tt kommit hem..<\/p>\n

Men nog tror jag som du, att man b\u00f6rjar ladda upp f\u00f6r \u00f6ka tempot.
\nG\u00e5r ju inte heller att lita p\u00e5 att v\u00e4dret ska h\u00e5lla i sig (det har v\u00e4l redan regnat en del p\u00e5 sina h\u00e5ll).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Jo det finns absolut n\u00e5gra p\u00e5sk\u00e4gg kvar.<\/p>\n

Belgorod \u00e4r man snudd p\u00e5 galen \u00f6ver att dom helt sl\u00e4ppt h\u00e4r\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Tack PerraG55,<\/p>\n

Jag tar med mig \u2013 hj\u00e4rntv\u00e4tt i den h\u00f6gre skolan \u2013<\/p>\n

Vi har ju sett i Sverige p\u00e5 senare \u00e5r hur gymnasiestudenter som spelade hockey och r\u00e5kade glida in p\u00e5 ISIS sidor \u00f6ver n\u00e5t \u00e5r blev s\u00e5 radikaliserade att dom \u00e5kte ned till Syrien och blev de v\u00e4rsta av m\u00f6rdare.<\/p>\n

Sovjet och Ryssland har haft en radikalisering magnituder st\u00f6rre dels genom det du beskriver och sedan en institutionaliserad brutalisering av samh\u00e4llet och inte minst milit\u00e4ren.<\/p>\n

Och det har h\u00e5llit p\u00e5 \u00f6ver 100 \u00e5r.<\/p>\n

Man blir lite matt n\u00e4r man l\u00e4ser s\u00e5nt d\u00e4r minst sagt\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:50 \u2013 Johan No.1 Nu tycker jag alla seri\u00f6sa bed\u00f6mare v\u00e4rda sitt namn b\u00f6rjar vikta \u00f6ver till att det \u00e4r […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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