{"id":8062,"date":"2023-08-17T09:53:54","date_gmt":"2023-08-17T07:53:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-08-17\/"},"modified":"2023-08-17T09:53:54","modified_gmt":"2023-08-17T07:53:54","slug":"2023-08-17","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-08-17\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-08-17"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:54 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Ig\u00e5r kom 82nd brigade med sina Challenger till s\u00f6dra fronten om nu n\u00e5gon tror att Ukraina inte g\u00e5r all in h\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Vi har diskuterat r\u00e4tt mycket att ist\u00e4llet f\u00f6r 1-2 genombrottsf\u00f6rs\u00f6k s\u00e5 satsar Ukraina p\u00e5 fler vid s\u00f6dra fronten f\u00f6r att tvinga RU att sprida ut sig.<\/p>\n

Dom har ju inte bara gjort det, vilket vi diskuterat f\u00f6rut ocks\u00e5, f\u00f6r dom har tvingat RU att f\u00f6rst\u00e4rka Bakhmutfronten n\u00e5got enormt genom sin offensiv och sen h\u00e5ller dom trycket uppe mellan N Vuhledar \u2013 Horkivka f\u00f6r att binda RU f\u00f6rband.<\/p>\n

Jag tror inte heller RU kan dra bort mycket fr\u00e5n norra Luhansk egentligen \u00e4ven om dom g\u00e5r i f\u00f6rsvar.<\/p>\n

Den ryska arm\u00e9n i Ukraina \u00e4r nu uppl\u00e5st vid sina respektive frontavsnitt och UA har en offensiv reserv kvar som dom kan v\u00e4lja att s\u00e4tta in p\u00e5 passande plats \u2013 popul\u00e4rt kallat p\u00e5sk\u00e4gg.<\/p>\n

Att Ukraina g\u00e5r all-in h\u00e4r r\u00e5der det inget som helst tvivel om och i f\u00f6rl\u00e4ngningen kommer dom naturligtvis inte pausa halvv\u00e4gs f\u00f6r lite saftpaus \u2013 dom f\u00f6rst\u00e5r precis som alla andra att har man lyckats n\u00f6ta ned ryssarna s\u00e5 h\u00e4r pass mycket g\u00e4ller det att h\u00e5lla trycket uppe tills det brister.<\/p>\n

Nu g\u00e5r ett s\u00e5 pass obekr\u00e4ftat rykte att det knappt g\u00e5r att kalla rykte att RU skulle \u00f6verge den fr\u00e4msta linjen f\u00f6r huvudlinjen.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/malcontentmentt\/status\/1692080746243174723?s=46&t=y4A3mY4pMDV2WLWEF52XrQ<\/a><\/p>\n

De tv\u00e5 saker som b\u00f6r h\u00e4nda \u00e4r att man \u00f6verger Dneprfronten och sen fr\u00e4mstalinjen vid s\u00f6dra fronten f\u00f6r att l\u00f6sg\u00f6ra f\u00f6rband att bemanna andralinjen och huvudlinjen (eller hur man nu skall beskriva alla linjerna\u2026).<\/p>\n

Till slut s\u00e5 \u00e4r det tv\u00e5 arm\u00e9er som st\u00e5r emot varandra som f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker n\u00f6ta ned och \u00f6verlista motparten.<\/p>\n

Man situationsanpassar, man tillf\u00f6r nya f\u00f6rm\u00e5gor och man f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker komma innanf\u00f6r motst\u00e5ndarens beslutscirkel.<\/p>\n

Det f\u00f6rv\u00e5nade mig lite att RU hade s\u00e5 pass mycket of\u00f6rst\u00f6rd indirekt kapacitet vid den s\u00f6dra fronten men UA har nu under flera m\u00e5nader malt ned dels vapenplattformarna men sen ocks\u00e5 trossen och underh\u00e5llet.<\/p>\n

Vid Bakhmut hade man vid UA offensivstart redan d\u00e5ligt med RU artilleri och i norra Luhansk verkar dom ha sparat p\u00e5 f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga.<\/p>\n

Po\u00e4ngen \u00e4r att redan i v\u00e5ras har RU inte artilleri\u00f6vertag vid alla fronter och nu \u00e4r det UA som har \u00f6vertag f\u00f6rutom uppe i norra Luhansk.<\/p>\n

RU alligator-ahkp blir nedskjutna s\u00e5 fort dom visar sig och nu \u00e4r RU desperata nog att skicka fram dom igen.
\nRU flyg h\u00e5ller sig undan f\u00f6rutom uppe i norra Luhansk verkar det som?<\/p>\n

Att Ukraina b\u00f6rjar f\u00e5 ett strategiskt \u00f6vertag tycker jag \u00e4r odiskutabelt, att s\u00f6dra fronten och Dneprfronten buktar in\u00e5t farligt mycket \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 tydligt.<\/p>\n

Det enda dom kan dra ur hatten \u00e4r tomma hot eller en allm\u00e4n mobilisering.<\/p>\n

De tomma hoten lyssnar ingen p\u00e5 l\u00e4ngre och mobilisera massorna v\u00e5gar dom inte f\u00f6r d\u00e5 blir det revolution. Wagner har ju redan t\u00e5gat mot Moskva och i Belarus tippade det n\u00e4stan \u00f6ver.<\/p>\n

Och i Ukraina har en folkets revolution redan lyckats.<\/p>\n

Det kan s\u00e5ledes bara g\u00e5 \u00e5t ett h\u00e5ll h\u00e4r eftersom ryska laget n\u00e5r utmattning och d\u00e5ligt stridsv\u00e4rde innan Ukraina g\u00f6r det, lite som tv\u00e5 boxare d\u00e4r den ena b\u00f6rjar bli tr\u00f6tt och h\u00e5ller handskarna i axelh\u00f6jd.<\/p>\n

Sammantaget \u00e4r det ypperligt krigat av Ukraina, man h\u00e5ller trycket uppe \u00f6verallt s\u00e5 man l\u00e5ser ryska reserver och sen har man i \u00f6ver ett \u00e5r samtidigt som man f\u00f6rsvarat byggt upp en stor offensiv reserv och klipper till i RU l\u00e5gpunkt.<\/p>\n

Ryssarna och apologeterna kan dr\u00f6mma om en utdragen konflikt som Putin kan hantera hur mycket som helst men det kommer dom inte f\u00e5. Med det h\u00e4r trycket som nu appliceras p\u00e5 alla fronter kommer det brista f\u00f6r det har det gjort historiskt ett antal g\u00e5nger i det h\u00e4r kriget.<\/p>\n

N\u00e4r det h\u00e4r kriget \u00e4r \u00f6ver kommer f\u00f6rlusterna \u00f6verraska alla, dels ukrainska civila f\u00f6rluster, sen deras milit\u00e4ra och inte minst ryssarnas. Jag tror inte David D var s\u00e5 l\u00e5ngt ifr\u00e5n n\u00e4r han summerade upp totalen alla vapenslag, 300 000 \u2013 400 000st f\u00f6r h\u00f6gt kanske?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:47 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Ang\u00e5ende 10:19 och m\u00f6rkerstridsf\u00f6rm\u00e5ga var det n\u00e5got som ofta diskuterades under 2022 men betydligt mindre detta \u00e5r.
\nVi s\u00e5g ju leveranser att 20 000st bildf\u00f6rst\u00e4rkare och att allt \u00f6stpansar fr\u00e5n EU hade termiska sikten och s\u00e5 vidare.<\/p>\n

Vi spekulerade i att UA skulle anv\u00e4nda m\u00f6rkerstrid till stor del f\u00f6r att ta sig fram\u00e5t men att det skulle vara f\u00f6r sv\u00e5rt vid sj\u00e4lva genombrotten med alla minor.<\/p>\n

Vi har ju sett dom r\u00f6ja minorna nattetid, vi vet att SOF sover p\u00e5 dagen och stryper ut ryssar p\u00e5 n\u00e4tterna s\u00e5 varf\u00f6r skulle inte man\u00f6verbrigaderna klara av m\u00f6rkerstrid ocks\u00e5?<\/p>\n

Att ligga och f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka pricka n\u00e5gon med RPG under lys \u00e4r inte det enklaste.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:52 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Fint, allt g\u00e5r enligt plan! \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:54 \u2013 Johan No.1 Ig\u00e5r kom 82nd brigade med sina Challenger till s\u00f6dra fronten om nu n\u00e5gon tror att Ukraina 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