{"id":8069,"date":"2023-08-24T08:04:28","date_gmt":"2023-08-24T06:04:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-08-24\/"},"modified":"2023-08-24T08:04:28","modified_gmt":"2023-08-24T06:04:28","slug":"2023-08-24","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-08-24\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-08-24"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:05 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

N\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller stora tvek p\u00e5 Ukrainas v\u00e5roffensiv, hand upp den som inte tror att USA och andra l\u00e4nders skarpaste hj\u00e4rnor coachar Ukraina?<\/p>\n

Ukraina har begr\u00e4nsningar och man kan v\u00e4l gissa att n\u00e5gra v\u00e4stbef\u00e4l blev utel\u00e5sta efter att dom tvingade UA att strida enligt NATO doktrinen (rykte) och UA har faktiska begr\u00e4nsningar i materiel att f\u00f6rh\u00e5lla sig till men \u00f6verlag f\u00e5r dom nog mycket goda r\u00e5d att beakta eller f\u00f6rkasta.<\/p>\n

Trots det proryska narrativet att v\u00e4stliga frivilliga \u00f6vergett Ukraina s\u00e5 finns det o\u00e4ndligt m\u00e5nga kvar i alla m\u00f6jliga olika f\u00f6rband och dom f\u00f6rmedlar sin kunskap till f\u00f6rbandet varje dag \u2013 den inl\u00e4rningen skall man inte heller gl\u00f6mma bort.
\nS\u00e5 som 3rd Assault brigade stred n\u00e4r dom rensade v\u00e4rnsystem borta i Bakhmut har jag sv\u00e5rt att se att man kunde g\u00f6ra b\u00e4ttre.<\/p>\n

Det var ju snudd p\u00e5 som n\u00e4r USA jagade talibaner detta, villebr\u00e5d som g\u00f6mmer sig i gropar, blir identifierade av dr\u00f6nare och sen v\u00e4ljer man vilken knapp med d\u00f6d man trycker p\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Vid Robotyne har det nu dykt upp flera f\u00f6rband med 1000-tal beteckning \u2013 vi vet vad det \u00e4r, sammansatta f\u00f6rband av \u00f6verlevare fr\u00e5n utpl\u00e5nade enheter. Stridsv\u00e4rde sannolikt mycket l\u00e5gt.<\/p>\n

Vid Dneprfronten \u00e4r det fler s\u00e5dana trauma-f\u00f6rband \u00e4n det \u00e4r (vanliga) regementen och brigader.<\/p>\n

Vid Staromlynivka \u00e4r det inga s\u00e5dana enheter \u00e4nnu utan k\u00e4nda brigader men m\u00e5nga av dom har f\u00e5tt riktigt ordentligt med stryk tidigare.<\/p>\n

Dessa 1000-tal f\u00f6rband verkar ofta vara i bataljonsstorlek och skytte med f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningsvapen.<\/p>\n

Vid Robotyne har dom UA elitf\u00f6rband emot sig som har kortnummer till alla indirekta f\u00f6rm\u00e5gor och tillg\u00e5ng till direkt underst\u00f6d och god tillg\u00e5ng till dr\u00f6narvapnet.<\/p>\n

Prigozin \u2013 var inte han en mycket popul\u00e4r ledare hos Wagner och arm\u00e9n?
\nEfter kuppen d\u00f6k han upp i Belarus, vi vet att han fl\u00f6g upprepade g\u00e5nger till St Petersburg och sen d\u00f6k han upp under den afrikanska sumit i St Petersburgh och skakade hand med v\u00e4rldens diktatorer.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6r n\u00e5gra dagar sedan var han i Afrika enligt bild.<\/p>\n

Ett tidigare rykte som vi diskuterade var att ryska staten f\u00f6rs\u00f6kte ta \u00f6ver Wagner.
\nEtt nytt rykte var att Prigozin flydde Afrika f\u00f6r att ryska staten motarbetade honom d\u00e4rnere, dom t\u00e4nkte v\u00e4l anv\u00e4nda n\u00e5t land f\u00f6r att f\u00e4ngsla honom kanske?<\/p>\n

Att planet blev nedskjutet och att Prigozin dog \u00e4r v\u00e4l odiskutabelt, tycker det \u00e4r ett klassiskt ryskt avslut?<\/p>\n

Ig\u00e5r gick ocks\u00e5 ryktet att det var telest\u00f6rning runt wagners baser och vid platsen f\u00f6r kraschen och nu l\u00e4ser man att wagner i Belarus flugits till Ryssland \u2013 koordinerat.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/officejjsmart\/status\/1694432005453218246?s=46&t=3S1xKrZR9ZJPcRqLOPg_OQ<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/azovsouth\/status\/1694435225122537506?s=46&t=SzsCt0FHBoKycQS7asHTow<\/a><\/p>\n

Det h\u00e4r k\u00e4nns spontant v\u00e4lorganiserat?
\nS\u00e5 h\u00e4r l\u00e5ngt \u00e4r v\u00e4l allting bra, en \u201dmerchant of death\u201d \u00e4r borta och Don Corleones i Ryssland g\u00f6r som dom alltid har gjort \u2013 d\u00f6dar varandra.<\/p>\n

Men nu \u00e4r situationen lite annorlunda med kriget i Ukraina och bubblarlistan kokar.
\nF\u00f6r den som tror att situationen i Ryssland \u00e4r som en vanlig skoldag har fel, landet \u00e4r under mycket stor press och tryckkokaren gick upp n\u00e5gra grader till.<\/p>\n

Ut\u00f6ver Prigozins sj\u00e4lvmord s\u00e5 har ett stort antal bef\u00e4l kring Suvorikin nyligen gripits.
\nB\u00e5de Suvorikin och Prigozin var popul\u00e4ra och i Wagner var Prigozin en gud. <\/p>\n

Allt kan s\u00e4kerligen h\u00e4nda h\u00e4r och en sak ingen stat i v\u00e4rlden kan kontrollera \u00e4r om arm\u00e9n f\u00e5r nog.
\nSkall bli intressant att se vilka platser Wagner befinner sig p\u00e5 och om MoD har en plan att antingen sl\u00e5 ut dom eller k\u00f6pa \u00f6ver dom men sv\u00e5rt att tro att dom kan f\u00e5 en b\u00e4ttre deal \u00e4n vad dom hade under Prigozins ledarskap.<\/p>\n

Det skall ocks\u00e5 bli intressant att se hur arm\u00e9n p\u00e5 marken i Ukraina reagerar p\u00e5 detta.<\/p>\n

Just nu har Putin eliminerat i stort sett all pro-krigs opposition i landet och i alla fall jag undrar om det beror p\u00e5 att han t\u00e4nkt forts\u00e4tta kriget eller inte, gissa kan man ju b\u00e4st man vill\u2026<\/p>\n

Vi ser inte en tillstymmelse till mobilisering och om det inte mobiliseras snart \u00e4r kriget o\u00e5terkalleligen f\u00f6rlorat f\u00f6r Ryssland.<\/p>\n

Sen b\u00f6r v\u00e4l rimligen Prigozin och Girkin ha haft en falang bakom sig som vi inte sett \u00e4nnu som slutat dricka te?
\nNu b\u00f6rjar milbloggarna g\u00e5 ut med krav p\u00e5 regimbyte
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/kremlintrolls\/status\/1694427332084220411?s=46&t=SzsCt0FHBoKycQS7asHTow<\/a><\/p>\n

Och resterande wagnerchefer har m\u00f6tts f\u00f6r r\u00e5dslag.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1694439523608936852?s=46&t=SzsCt0FHBoKycQS7asHTow<\/a><\/p>\n

S\u00e5nt h\u00e4r \u00e4r alltid enormt positivt f\u00f6r det snabbaste s\u00e4ttet att f\u00e5 slut p\u00e5 kriget \u00e4r om Ryssland v\u00e4nder sig in\u00e5t.<\/p>\n

Wagner hade trots allt ett rykte hos h\u00f6karna att vara spjutspetsen och tar man ett steg tillbaka h\u00e5ller Putin p\u00e5 att utpl\u00e5na hela den ryska arm\u00e9n just nu. VDV har v\u00e4l protesterat redan med tanke p\u00e5 alla h\u00f6gre bef\u00e4l hos dom som avskedats.<\/p>\n

Detta samtidigt som Ukraina \u00e4r p\u00e5 v\u00e4g att vinna kriget.
\nPutins position m\u00e5ste bara vara rej\u00e4lt i gungning just nu.
\nF\u00f6rhoppningsvis \u2013 forts\u00e4ttning f\u00f6ljer.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:43 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+100<\/p>\n

Fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r om Putin lyckas skr\u00e4mma alla som \u00e4r emot honom eller om de tv\u00e4rtom inser att han m\u00e5ste v\u00e4ck.
\nArm\u00e9n borde om inte annat b\u00f6rja tr\u00f6ttna. N\u00e4r de ser hur Wagner blir behandlade, de som \u00e4nd\u00e5 stod f\u00f6r framg\u00e5ngarna och mycket av f\u00f6rlusterna, kanske de inser att de sj\u00e4lva ocks\u00e5 bara \u00e4r f\u00f6rbrukningsvara i ett krig de inte kan vinna.<\/p>\n

Att Putin skulle ge upp kriget kan f\u00f6rst\u00e5s vara en bubblare och att det \u00e4r d\u00e4rf\u00f6r han g\u00f6r sig av med de v\u00e4rsta krigshetsarna. Det g\u00e4ller att f\u00e5 tyst p\u00e5 dem om han ska kunna komma ur det helskinnad. Nu tror jag inte att det \u00e4r s\u00e5 att han t\u00e4nker ge upp, men han kanske krattar manegen i fall det trots allt slutar med det eller f\u00f6r att han \u00e4r r\u00e4dd just f\u00f6r att de ska ers\u00e4tta honom. <\/p>\n

Nu vore det kanske faktiskt v\u00e4rre om krigshetsarna tog makten. Putin har h\u00e5llit sig fr\u00e5n att anv\u00e4nda taktiska k\u00e4rnvapen men de mest fanatiska kanske skulle g\u00f6ra en annan v\u00e4rdering. De f\u00e5r allts\u00e5 g\u00e4rna st\u00e4lla till det internt i Ryssland men inte ta makten. D\u00e5 ser jag hellre att arm\u00e9n f\u00e5r nog.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r n\u00e4stan lika intressant nu som n\u00e4r Prigozjin gick mot Moskva med skillnaden att vi inte kan f\u00f6lja det p\u00e5 samma s\u00e4tt d\u00e5 det mesta h\u00e4nder i det dolda.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:05 \u2013 Johan No.1 N\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller stora tvek p\u00e5 Ukrainas v\u00e5roffensiv, hand upp den som inte tror att USA […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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