{"id":8073,"date":"2023-08-28T09:42:17","date_gmt":"2023-08-28T07:42:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-08-28\/"},"modified":"2023-08-28T09:42:17","modified_gmt":"2023-08-28T07:42:17","slug":"2023-08-28","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-08-28\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-08-28"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:20 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Nu n\u00e4r chefen s\u00f6dra fronten tvingats dra f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n Dneprfronten och l\u00e4ngre \u00f6sterut vid s\u00f6dra fronten f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka st\u00e4mma i b\u00e4cken kring Robotyne s\u00e5 beh\u00f6ver man inte vara sl\u00e4kt med Patton via en sekreterare f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rst\u00e5 att mycket snart kommer trycket \u00f6ka l\u00e4ngs hela s\u00f6dra fronten.<\/p>\n

Enligt denne twittergud s\u00e5 har RU redan dragit bort VDV fr\u00e5n norra Luhansk och f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkt Bakhmut och s\u00f6dra fronten med, det verkar st\u00e4mma s\u00e5 d\u00e5 \u00e4r den (relativt) dugliga offensiva reserven uppe i norra Luhansk borta.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andysch64494719\/status\/1696044759498789233?s=46&t=f5A_Y_tXFU40UrXkuq0vEg<\/a><\/p>\n

Anfallen kring Robotyne \u00e4r vid den mest v\u00e4lbef\u00e4sta str\u00e4ckan l\u00e4ngs hela s\u00f6dra fronten \u2013 sm\u00e5tt otroligt att UA kommer fram\u00e5t d\u00e4r. Jag har haft dom som en avledande anfallsvektor sedan offensiven drog ig\u00e5ng men dom \u00e4r snart igenom.<\/p>\n

Nu har tydligen 42 divisionen flaggat f\u00f6r att dom b\u00f6rjar bli utbr\u00e4nda av all \u00f6vertid, dom \u00e4r vid Robotyne.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andysch64494719\/status\/1696045039548322050?s=46&t=f5A_Y_tXFU40UrXkuq0vEg<\/a><\/p>\n

Vid Staromaiorske har de ryska eldr\u00f6ren tystnat och f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningarna lyser med sin fr\u00e5nvaro samtidigt som Ukraina har roterat in utvilade f\u00f6rband som st\u00e5r och g\u00f6r kn\u00e4b\u00f6j.<\/p>\n

Jag \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 r\u00e4tt s\u00e4ker p\u00e5 att m\u00f6rkerstrid nu rullar ut \u00f6ver s\u00f6dra fronten och att framg\u00e5ngarna till del kan f\u00f6rklaras av det. UA har flera av sina SOF-f\u00f6rband att rensa v\u00e4rn och dom om n\u00e5gra har kapacitet f\u00f6r m\u00f6rkerstrid. Ett mycket bra p\u00e5sk\u00e4gg.<\/p>\n

Ryssarna l\u00e4r ju inte ha prioriterat batterier till bildf\u00f6rst\u00e4rkare n\u00e4r dom knappt f\u00e5r fram ammunition och att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka tr\u00e4ffa n\u00e5got med lys \u00e4r inte det l\u00e4ttaste, det vet alla som gjort lumpen.<\/p>\n

Har ni noterat att i 3-4 filmer har det varit ryssar som sl\u00e4ngt vapnen och f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt fly som blivit skjutna? Jag tycker det \u00e4r signifikant \u2013 anekdotiskt signifikant.<\/p>\n

Tittar ni p\u00e5 h\u00f6jdkartorna s\u00e5 ligger f\u00e5llan Tokmak i en dal, ukrainarna kan ju i stort sett kasta sten ned p\u00e5 f\u00f6rsvaret. <\/p>\n

Dom skickar v\u00e4l tackbrev just nu f\u00f6r att ryssarna har ringat in omr\u00e5det dom skall bek\u00e4mpa och verkligen laddat upp med extra stora f\u00f6rr\u00e5d av ammunition innanf\u00f6r cirkeln \u2013 det \u00e4r inte l\u00e4tt att vara chefen Tokmak just nu.<\/p>\n

Faktum \u00e4r att de medeltida runtomkringf\u00f6rsvar dom t\u00e4nkt sig \u00e4r uruselt, finns flera s\u00e5dana orter dom t\u00e4nkt sig h\u00e5lla p\u00e5 b\u00e4sta Stalingradman\u00e9r men det \u00e4r bara stora Bullseye som v\u00e4ntar p\u00e5 att sl\u00e5s ut.<\/p>\n

Anfallsriktningen S\u00d6 mellan Verbove och Novoprokopivka tar dom rakt upp p\u00e5 dominerande terr\u00e4ng.<\/p>\n

Om ni minns den stora f\u00e4ltt\u00e5gsplanen som n\u00e5gon skrev s\u00e5 var de tre anfallsvektorer.
\nEn var V om Melitopol, en var i omr\u00e5det \u00d6 om Robotyne i den dominerande terr\u00e4ngen och en var borta vid Vuhledar, \u00d6 d\u00e4rom.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r det som spelar ut nu med viss modifikation (men Erik14 femhundring \u00e4r f\u00f6rbrukad).<\/p>\n

Om dom g\u00e5r S\u00d6 slipper dom ocks\u00e5 alla vattendragen och uppe p\u00e5 den dominerande terr\u00e4ngen kan dom inte bli \u00f6verk\u00f6rda \u2013 mycket smart krigat, legendary level.<\/p>\n

Och skulle ryssarna f\u00e5 f\u00f6r sig att dra bort f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n Tokmak l\u00e4mnar dom ju den vagnborgen \u00f6ppen ist\u00e4llet \u2013 dom \u00e4r korta p\u00e5 f\u00f6rband och m\u00e5ste v\u00e4lja.<\/p>\n

Tjusningen med s\u00f6dra fronten \u00e4r att UA beh\u00f6ver komma ned till Azov vid en (1) punkt och dom har tre aktiva anfallsvektorer \u2013 Dnepfronten, Robotyne och Staromaiorske.<\/p>\n

K\u00f6r dom fast vid Robotyne driver dom p\u00e5 med dom andra.<\/p>\n

En done-deal som dom s\u00e4ger h\u00e4rnere n\u00e4r dom lyckas f\u00e5 h\u00f6gsta domstolen med sig p\u00e5 racketeering och bedr\u00e4geri.<\/p>\n

Tror ni Wagner gillar att deras begravningsplatser sk\u00e4ndas, b\u00f6rjar bli en del hot om regimbyte fr\u00e5n Wagnerassocierade mediakanaler men Putin \u00e4r inte f\u00f6dd ig\u00e5r och dom tog nog tag i wagnerbaserna samtidigt som dom sk\u00f6t ned Prigozin. Och ja, det var Putin f\u00f6r annars hade dom inte rensat baserna samtidigt eller hur, hade det varit UA hade ryssarna st\u00e5tt d\u00e4r f\u00f6rv\u00e5nade i n\u00e5gra dagar.<\/p>\n

Historiens vingslag, vi f\u00f6ljer i realtid hur Ukraina man\u00f6vrerar ut ryska laget och snart har levererat en krigsavg\u00f6rande offensiv.<\/p>\n

Man f\u00e5r ju hoppas att FSB som l\u00e4ser bloggen har b\u00f6rjat f\u00f6rst\u00e5 vart\u00e5t det h\u00e4r \u00e4r p\u00e5 v\u00e4g s\u00e5 dom satsar p\u00e5 r\u00e4tt h\u00e4st framledes.<\/p>\n

Har Putin tur kommer han skickas till Haag annars blir det som en lyx-pinhata h\u00e4ngandes fr\u00e5n en bensinmack indr\u00e4nkt i bensin.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r med stigande f\u00f6rhoppning men l\u00e4ser PerraG55 resonemang kring hur oligarker och siloviker t\u00e4nker.
\nDen h\u00e4r f\u00e5r du nog f\u00f6rklara f\u00f6r oss vanliga i elunderklassen PerraG55
\nSt Petersburg fraktionen mot Moskov-gangsters och Prigozin var ett utfall.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/vtchakarova\/status\/1696042458562318697?s=46&t=f5A_Y_tXFU40UrXkuq0vEg<\/a><\/p>\n

Vi har ju hoppats att dom skall b\u00f6rja dra in klorna sedan f\u00f6rra v\u00e5ren men tr\u00f6gheten har verkligen varit enorm h\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Men \u00e4ven en large m\u00e4skdunkt silovik har v\u00e4l en r\u00f6d linje kan man gissa och att den imperialistiska skinande ryska arm\u00e9n jagas som villebr\u00e5d i Ukraina och flyr utan sina personliga vapen skulle ju kunna vara en s\u00e5n r\u00f6d linje?<\/p>\n

Samtidigt som kriget b\u00f6rjar \u00e4ta in i oligarkers och silovikers personliga st\u00f6ldgods enligt PerraG55, k\u00e4nns som en riktig motivationsh\u00f6jare att g\u00f6ra sig av med ett hasande och hostande kaviar\u00e4tande vrak i en bunker i Altai som tycker att alla skall g\u00e5 under med honom.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r m\u00e5nga som tvivlat p\u00e5 Ukraina, redan h\u00f6sten 2022 hade dom byggt en offensiv reserv och dom avh\u00f6ll sig fr\u00e5n att anfalla vintern 2023 \u2013 vi skrev mycket kring det i tr\u00e5den.<\/p>\n

M\u00e5ng proukrainska debatt\u00f6rer var heligt uppr\u00f6rda f\u00f6r att dom h\u00f6ll Bakhmut men precis alla kan ju se v\u00e4rdet av det idag \u2013 tur att dom inte lyckades p\u00e5verka n\u00e5n opinion trots sitt ih\u00e4rdiga klagande som dom naturligtvis helt gl\u00f6mt bort idag.<\/p>\n

Sen b\u00f6rjade stora tvek kring v\u00e5roffensiven, \u201dnumber game\u201d ville ingen lyssna p\u00e5 och nu senaste veckorna har media vr\u00e4kt ut artiklar kring att Ukraina inte kan vinna och att det m\u00e5ste bli frysta fronter.<\/p>\n

Samtidigt som Ukraina n\u00f6ter p\u00e5 och snart har levererat Azovst\u00f6ten. F\u00f6rlusterna \u00e4r naturligtvis enorma men ryska laget f\u00f6rlorar o\u00e4ndligt mycket mer.<\/p>\n

Om inte Azovst\u00f6ten r\u00e4cker f\u00f6r att Ryssland skall dra in klorna (vilket jag tror!) kommer dom forts\u00e4tta med invasionen av Belgorod, \u00e5tertagandet av norra Luhansk, invasionen av Rostov na Don, \u00e5tertagandet av m\u00f6rkaste donbass och sen \u00e4r ordningen \u00e5terst\u00e4lld.<\/p>\n

V\u00e4rldsordningen \u00e4r \u00e5terst\u00e4lld.<\/p>\n

Kina kyls ned och dom kommer att ha lite att f\u00f6rklara efter det h\u00e4r kriget, hur deras ammunition hamnade i Ukraina till exempel.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/golub\/status\/1696052277524451383?s=46&t=f5A_Y_tXFU40UrXkuq0vEg<\/a><\/p>\n

Vid Bakhmut kommer det r\u00f6ra p\u00e5 sig \u2013 r\u00e4cker med att se antalet brigader i omr\u00e5det f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rst\u00e5 att RU har fullt upp med att freda sig fr\u00e5n \u00f6verv\u00e5ld.<\/p>\n

Norra Luhansk kommer sv\u00e4nga \u2013 har RU dragit bort sina (relativt) dugliga offensiva reserver s\u00e5 kommer initiativet \u00f6ver tid \u00f6verg\u00e5 till Ukraina, dom har m\u00e5nga b\u00e4ttre f\u00f6rband d\u00e4ruppe.<\/p>\n

Om vi nu skall tro p\u00e5 alla rykten om nya CAA 25, CAA 18 och n\u00e5n arm\u00e9k\u00e5r, hade det inte varit perfekt att tr\u00e4na dom i Zapad, b\u00e5de tr\u00e4ning samt signalpolitik?<\/p>\n

Det Zapad som nu blir inst\u00e4llt \u2013 signalerar v\u00e4l att ryssarna \u00e4r slut om n\u00e5got?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/the_lookout_n\/status\/1696054034090668475?s=46&t=f5A_Y_tXFU40UrXkuq0vEg<\/a><\/p>\n

UA har n\u00e5t legendary level i v\u00e4rnrensning nu och h\u00f6gst sannolikt \u00e4r det mycket m\u00f6rkerstrid och det sammantaget \u00e4r sk\u00e4let till att man sk\u00e4r igenom f\u00f6rsvaret \u2013 man utklassar helt enkelt ryssarna just nu.<\/p>\n

Putin kan hasa runt i Altai-bunkern och lapa i sig kaviar b\u00e4st han vill \u2013 kriget \u00e4r f\u00f6rlorat och han kan inte prata sig ur det.<\/p>\n

Med tanke p\u00e5 att RU inte gjort ens en halvhj\u00e4rtad ansats att m\u00e4kla fred s\u00e5 blir det v\u00e4l s\u00e5 att landet v\u00e4nder sig in\u00e5t ist\u00e4llet, den ligger h\u00f6gst upp p\u00e5 bubblarlistan nu.<\/p>\n

Mobilisering verkar det inte bli och s\u00f6dra fronten b\u00f6rjar s\u00e5 sm\u00e5tt kollapsa under trycket h\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Positiv-Positiv s\u00e5ledes \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:51 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Tack f\u00f6r dagens positiva rapport, det g\u00e5r \u00e5t r\u00e4tt h\u00e5ll men positiva analyser beh\u00f6vs! <\/p>\n

Jag har h\u00f6rt rykten om att Putin hets\u00e4tit s\u00e5 mycket kaviar p\u00e5 sista tiden att den, precis som ryska arm\u00e9n, b\u00f6rjar ta slut.<\/p>\n

Han har beordrat genoms\u00f6kning av IKEA varuhusen och de har hittat n\u00e5gra l\u00e5dor med Kalles kaviar. Han har alltid en tub eller tv\u00e5 i fickan nu som han tr\u00f6stsuger p\u00e5 n\u00e4r han f\u00e5r d\u00e5liga nyheter.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:28 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Enormt kul \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n

Som en vuxennapp i kaviar.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:52 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Har denna fr\u00e5n Defmon varit uppe?
\n(Trea \u00e4r en win f\u00f6r mig)<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/defmon3\/status\/1696101932090220795?s=46&t=tQpxYM0I58ld6NbBQTtcmA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

16:05 tyckte jag var intressant f\u00f6r det skall ju vara tv\u00e5 stycken VDV divisioner i omr\u00e5det som \u00e4r n\u00e5n typ av offensiv reserv?<\/p>\n

Nu \u00e4r det ju ett rykte som b\u00e4st men gick UA rakt ned i Suvorikinlinjen utan att det var n\u00e5got direkt f\u00f6rsvar?
\nIs\u00e5fall \u00e4r ju Solodka Balka n\u00e4sta att falla en upprullning bort.<\/p>\n

Och vidare \u2013 har dom tagit sig in i Suvorikinlinjen mellan dessa tv\u00e5 samh\u00e4llen kan dom ju rusa p\u00e5 S\u00d6 och d\u00e4r \u00e4r det inte speciellt v\u00e4lf\u00f6rsvarat och vad h\u00e4nde med f\u00f6rbanden p\u00e5 kartorna?<\/p>\n

M\u00e5nga fr\u00e5gor\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:20 \u2013 Johan No.1 Nu n\u00e4r chefen s\u00f6dra fronten tvingats dra f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n Dneprfronten och l\u00e4ngre \u00f6sterut vid s\u00f6dra fronten […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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