{"id":8077,"date":"2023-08-31T10:41:02","date_gmt":"2023-08-31T08:41:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-08-31\/"},"modified":"2023-08-31T10:41:02","modified_gmt":"2023-08-31T08:41:02","slug":"2023-08-31","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-08-31\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-08-31"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:57 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Det k\u00e4nns som att den ryska stridsledningen f\u00f6r specialoperationen sitter och googlar asyl i mellan\u00f6stern snarare \u00e4n leder kriget h\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Erik14 verkar ha dygnat och har ett stort antal poster i g\u00e5rdagens tr\u00e5d som \u00e4r m\u00e5stel\u00e4sning, inte minst Murtz l\u00e5nga gn\u00e4ll, n\u00e5n som tror att skicket p\u00e5 DPR och LPR f\u00f6rbanden \u00e4r bra efter att ha l\u00e4st den?<\/p>\n

Intensiteten i v\u00e5roffensiven \u00e4r p\u00e5 fortsatt \u00f6kande och signalerar hur v\u00e4l f\u00f6rberedda UA var f\u00f6r detta.<\/p>\n

Att UA brutit igenom den f\u00f6rsta av tv\u00e5 linjer i Suvorikin-linjen vid Verbove \u00e4r absolut sensation och helt i linje med vad tr\u00e5den gissade \u2013 potemkinkuliss och att man drog ur nedmalda f\u00f6rband som fick g\u00e5 i f\u00f6rsvar i de bakre linjerna.
\nRysk doktrin fast upp och ned, eller n\u00e5t\u2026<\/p>\n

Vi har ocks\u00e5 gissat ett tag att det v\u00e4rsta ligger bakom UA och vi vet att dom \u00e4nnu inte utnyttjat alla sina offensiva reserver.<\/p>\n

\u00c4r r\u00e4tt s\u00e4ker p\u00e5 att m\u00f6rkerstrid spelar stor roll h\u00e4r, p\u00e5sk\u00e4ggens p\u00e5sk\u00e4gg. Alla h\u00e5rda fordon som levererats fr\u00e5n v\u00e4st har m\u00f6rkerstridsmedel och dom har f\u00e5tt enorma m\u00e4ngder bildf\u00f6rst\u00e4rkare.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1696950356532396330?s=46&t=_XBp4xrhQvt_AX6VrtanBw<\/a><\/p>\n

De ryska f\u00f6rbanden vid s\u00f6dra fronten b\u00f6rjar n\u00e4rma sig sm\u00e4rtgr\u00e4nsen och varf\u00f6r Gerasimov bara forts\u00e4tter sparka alla som gn\u00e4ller \u00e4r lite av ett mysterium.<\/p>\n

Eller \u00e4r det egentligen det, finns ju inget att skicka?<\/p>\n

Vid den s\u00f6dra fronten finns det inga strategiska reserver.<\/p>\n

Vid Robotyne viker RU.<\/p>\n

Vid Dnepr klarar dom inte att sl\u00e5 brohuvudet eller brohuvudena och dom v\u00e4xer.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/vorobyov\/status\/1696991499261501918?s=46&t=FL5DJmrTLPjY-wwpCj0eTw<\/a><\/p>\n

Vid Staromaiorske har UA precis gasat upp igen och g\u00f6r sig redo att kasta sig \u00f6ver Staromlynivka fr\u00e5n tre h\u00e5ll \u2013 d\u00e4refter g\u00e5r dom ned l\u00e4ngs samh\u00e4llena och bryter huvudlinjen. Jag f\u00e5r intrycket av att RU har prioriterat f\u00f6rsvar i det omr\u00e5det, en k\u00e4nsla. Vi skrev v\u00e4l f\u00f6r n\u00e5gra dagar sen att rotationen var klar.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thestudyofwar\/status\/1697053138627227881?s=46&t=FL5DJmrTLPjY-wwpCj0eTw<\/a><\/p>\n

Och UA \u00e4r och n\u00f6ter p\u00e5 andra samh\u00e4llen l\u00e4ngs med fronten.<\/p>\n

Om inte chefen s\u00f6dra fronten ger upp hela fr\u00e4mstalinjen eller Dneprfronten mycket snart blir det ett genombrott. Han har f\u00f6rmodligen order om att h\u00e5lla varje meter och ser till jobbs\u00e4kerheten f\u00f6rst.<\/p>\n

Ger dom upp fr\u00e4mstalinjen och Dneprfronten k\u00f6per dom \u00e4nd\u00e5 bara (lite) tid och det finns stor risk (chans) att det blir oorganiserad retr\u00e4tt som UA lyckas utnyttja och kan h\u00e4nga p\u00e5 s\u00e5 dom hoppar ned i de bakre skyttegravarna samtidigt som vilt flyende ryss dyker ned d\u00e4r med huvudet f\u00f6rst och utan personligt vapen.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar h\u00f6r vi ingenting om, beh\u00f6vs arm\u00e9k\u00e5rer f\u00f6r att g\u00f6ra skillnad och dom finns inte.
\nMobilisering h\u00f6r vi ingenting om heller, f\u00f6r Putin kan inte mobilisera.<\/p>\n

\u00c4r v\u00e4l ingen som tror att RU kan h\u00e5lla emot vid s\u00f6dra fronten l\u00e4ngre?
\nSommaren \u00e4r l\u00e5ng, tills de sista l\u00f6ven har fallit \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Ovanp\u00e5 alla glada nyheter fr\u00e5n s\u00f6dra fronten s\u00e5 har Ukraina nu tagit initiativet uppe i norra Luhansk, exakt n\u00e4r det v\u00e4nde missade jag. Det var ju naturligtvis f\u00f6r att dom drog bort ett antal brigader d\u00e4rifr\u00e5n f\u00f6r att skicka ned till s\u00f6dra fronten och bakhmut gissningsvis. 10st brigader totalt gissade jag skulle kunna vara redundansen men d\u00e5 var dom nere p\u00e5 minimum och UA \u00e4r absolut inte svaga i det omr\u00e5det som en hel hjord journalister f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker g\u00f6ra g\u00e4llande.<\/p>\n

Sen forts\u00e4tter UA med offensiva operationer vid Bakhmut \u2013 jag anser att den krigslisten redan har spelat ut men det finns alla sk\u00e4l i v\u00e4rlden att forts\u00e4tta trycka p\u00e5.<\/p>\n

3rd Assault brigade har stridit oupph\u00f6rligt sedan b\u00f6rjan Maj n\u00e5gon g\u00e5ng, s\u00e4ger mycket om UA attrition rate tycker jag.
\nSen har UA b\u00f6rjat r\u00f6ra p\u00e5 sig vid Avdiivka (norr om staden Donetsk).<\/p>\n

Summerar man upp s\u00e5 har UA initiativet nu p\u00e5 alla fronter och RU genomf\u00f6r motanfall \u2013 ett tecken s\u00e5 tydligt som n\u00e5got p\u00e5 att RU \u00e4r rej\u00e4lt p\u00e5 dekis.<\/p>\n

Men \u00e4r man MoD och har st\u00e4ndiga inre konflikter d\u00e5 ser man till att inte en enda Wagnersoldat f\u00e5r strida i Ukraina \u2013 absolut f\u00f6rskola.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thestudyofwar\/status\/1697073187266125982?s=46&t=FL5DJmrTLPjY-wwpCj0eTw<\/a><\/p>\n

I vanlig ordning skenar de ryska f\u00f6rlusterna i Perpetuas anekdotiska lista.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andrewperpetua\/status\/1697050034515140626?s=46&t=FL5DJmrTLPjY-wwpCj0eTw<\/a><\/p>\n

Nu skall ju Ryssland s\u00e4tta upp nya CAA och AC och tydligen flera nya divisioner. Det som \u00e4r positivt verkar vara att dom drar ur f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n Ukraina f\u00f6r att bilda grundpl\u00e5ten till dessa.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/tatarigami_ua\/status\/1696949990348787833?s=46&t=FL5DJmrTLPjY-wwpCj0eTw<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1697061234615488740?s=46&t=FL5DJmrTLPjY-wwpCj0eTw<\/a><\/p>\n

N\u00e4r man inte trodde det kunde bli b\u00e4ttre s\u00e5 vill Girkin bli president \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1697153525019467967?s=46&t=FL5DJmrTLPjY-wwpCj0eTw<\/a><\/p>\n

Bara f\u00f6r arkivet, sista filmen med Prigozin mitten Augusti d\u00e4r han pratar om alla rykten och att han m\u00e5r bra. Sen m\u00f6rdade Putin sin gamla polare som den b\u00e4sta av Don Corleones.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/militarylabb\/status\/1697034699024007319?s=46&t=FL5DJmrTLPjY-wwpCj0eTw<\/a><\/p>\n

en karta med UA dr\u00f6narattacker sedan Januari 2023 om n\u00e5gon nu trodde att dom inte var s\u00e5 m\u00e5nga.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1697100375164141744?s=46&t=FL5DJmrTLPjY-wwpCj0eTw<\/a><\/p>\n

Kramatorsk j\u00e4rnv\u00e4gsstation \u00e4r en knutpunkt f\u00e5r f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar och permittenter \u2013 lite bilder.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpress\/status\/1697089828909920644?s=46&t=FL5DJmrTLPjY-wwpCj0eTw<\/a><\/p>\n

Ett genombrott vid s\u00f6dra fronten \u00e4r n\u00e4ra f\u00f6rest\u00e5ende f\u00f6rutsatt att det inte rullar reserver genom Mariupol men dom hade redan beh\u00f6vts och dom finns rimligen inte.<\/p>\n

Alla nyuppsatta arm\u00e9er och divisioner finns bara p\u00e5 papperet \u00e4n s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge och kan inte s\u00e4ttas in i kriget.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6r den uppm\u00e4rksamme s\u00e5 vet vi ocks\u00e5 att Ukraina fortsatt s\u00e4tta upp n\u00e5t tiotal nya brigader som tr\u00e4nas s\u00e5 ut\u00f6ver de som \u00e4r kvar av den offensiva reserven och n\u00e5t tiotal i olika stadier av \u00e5terh\u00e4mtning finns det ett tiotal till som i detta nu l\u00e4r sig hur man b\u00e4st d\u00f6dar ryss p\u00e5 tr\u00e4ningsf\u00e4lten.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r lite som i slutet p\u00e5 MMA fighten d\u00e4r Putin ligger p\u00e5 rygg och f\u00e4ktar med armarna fr\u00e4sande och illr\u00f6d i ansiktet samtidigt som Zelensky landar hammarslag efter hammarslag \u00f6ver honom som g\u00f6r avtryck i golvet.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r s\u00f6tt och surt p\u00e5 samma g\u00e5ng, f\u00f6rlusterna \u00e4r skyh\u00f6ga \u00e4ven f\u00f6r Ukraina men dom \u00e4r p\u00e5 god v\u00e4g att vinna det h\u00e4r kriget.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r dags att bli positiv-positiv.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:36 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Tack f\u00f6r dagens vitamininjektion! <\/p>\n

Snart dags f\u00f6r \u201dfont is collapsing\u201d (som en uppr\u00f6rd pro-ryss uttryckte det en g\u00e5ng och som sen blev meme).<\/p>\n

Girkin verkar ha d\u00f6dsl\u00e4ngtan..<\/p>\n

Positiv2
\nSlava Ukraini!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

japp han \u00e4r ju dessutom i f\u00e4ngelse s\u00e5 Putin har v\u00e4l skickat in sju livstidare att dela cell med honom nu.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
13:13 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

\ud83e\udd23 Synd Prigozjin togs av daga, hade annars varit roligt om de f\u00e5tt dela cell..<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:13 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Intressant post, vi t\u00e4nkte n\u00e4r v\u00e5roffensiven b\u00f6rjade och vi s\u00e5g att \u201dnumber game\u201d var det som g\u00e4llde att fortifikationerna var f\u00f6r omfattande f\u00f6r Ukraina att kunna sl\u00e5 sig igenom s\u00e5 om Ukraina ist\u00e4llet decimerar f\u00f6rsvaret s\u00e5 dom inte kan bef\u00e4sta v\u00e4rnsystemen hade man eliminerat dom. En grop utan ryss i \u00e4r bara en grop \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Potemkinkuliss i bem\u00e4rkelsen att linjen inte \u00e4r bef\u00e4st OCH inte lika kraftigt minerad som fr\u00e4msta linjen.<\/p>\n

D\u00e4remot \u00e4r dom mer v\u00e4lbyggda ju l\u00e4ngre bak UA kommer det har vi nog haft klart f\u00f6r oss.<\/p>\n

Detta verkar ju ha h\u00e4nt n\u00e4r dom kunde g\u00e5 rakt ned i en f\u00f6rberedd f\u00f6rsvarslinje utan motst\u00e5nd \u2013 smart krigat.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:57 \u2013 Johan No.1 Det k\u00e4nns som att den ryska stridsledningen f\u00f6r specialoperationen sitter och googlar asyl i mellan\u00f6stern snarare […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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