{"id":8165,"date":"2023-09-02T11:03:42","date_gmt":"2023-09-02T09:03:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-09-02\/"},"modified":"2023-09-02T11:03:42","modified_gmt":"2023-09-02T09:03:42","slug":"2023-09-02","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-09-02\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-09-02"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Nu \u00e4r v\u00e4l f\u00f6rbandskartorna inte att f\u00f6rlita sig p\u00e5 men jag tycker man kan se att fr\u00e4mstalinjen mellan Vasylivka \u2013 Robotyne \u00e4r glest f\u00f6rsvarad.<\/p>\n

Mellan Robotyne \u2013 Vuhledar \u00e4r det ocks\u00e5 en tunn picket line.<\/p>\n

Ukraina har varit och nosat lite i de omr\u00e5dena men man b\u00f6r v\u00e4l ha klart f\u00f6r sig att det \u00e4r minf\u00e4lten \u00e5terigen\u2026
\nDet finns tillr\u00e4ckligt med UA brigader som inte \u00e4r i aktiv front f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka sig p\u00e5 ett genombrott vid n\u00e5gon s\u00e5dan plats \u2013 chefen s\u00f6dra fronten spelar ett mycket h\u00f6gt spel just nu.<\/p>\n

Vid Staromlynivka \u00e4r RU f\u00f6rsvaret samma brigader som g\u00e5ng efter annan tagit stora f\u00f6rluster och nu \u00e4r alla UA marines-brigader i omr\u00e5det utom en. Dom \u00e4r ju precis som air-mobile elitf\u00f6rband och har underst\u00f6d av en Tank brigade och flera mekbrigader. Skicket p\u00e5 st\u00f6rre delen av det ryska f\u00f6rsvaret d\u00e4r har ansetts vara mycket d\u00e5ligt, 4-5st brigader skall ju tagit enorma f\u00f6rluster.<\/p>\n

S\u00f6dra fronten ser fortsatt livsfarlig ut f\u00f6r ryssarna och risken (chansen) f\u00f6r omfattning och vidare genombrott \u00e4r mycket h\u00f6g.<\/p>\n

I Verbove v\u00e4ljer man att f\u00f6rsvara med det b\u00e4sta man har, Spetznaz och spaning. Visst \u00e4r det RU mest skyddsv\u00e4rda resurser, de sista, som nu g\u00e5r och d\u00f6r men med 76GAAD har man f\u00e5tt ned ett par regementen till i omr\u00e5det. Det positiva \u00e4r att man kommer \u00e5t dom med eldr\u00f6rsartilleri och dr\u00f6nare nu, dom ligger inte och g\u00f6mmer sig bakom en sk\u00e4rm av LPR och DPR f\u00f6rband som tar hela sm\u00e4llen som uppe i Kherson.<\/p>\n

I stort sett alla f\u00f6rband \u00e4r i aktiv front runt Robotyne \u2013 dom drog bort garnisionen fr\u00e5n Ocheretuvate f\u00f6r n\u00e5gra veckor sedan till exempel, ett VDV regemente.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r inte heller rimligt att sju (7) stycken fulltaliga regementen ligger och trycker i Novoprokopivka s\u00e5 dom b\u00f6r vara l\u00e5g numer\u00e4r \u2013 just dom \u00e4r markerade som regementen.<\/p>\n

BARS och de d\u00e4r f\u00f6rbanden med 1000-tal beteckning skall vara bataljonsstyrka f\u00f6r \u00f6vrigt \u2013 det \u00e4r sju av f\u00f6rbanden runt Robotyne som \u00e4r i bataljonsstorlek.<\/p>\n

Har Ukraina bara tillr\u00e4ckligt med indirekta f\u00f6rm\u00e5gor att regna \u00f6ver dessa blir det ett genombrott s\u00e5 vi f\u00e5r hoppas att v\u00e4st h\u00e5ller leveranserna uppe \u2013 vi f\u00e5r verkligen hoppas att dom gjort det.<\/p>\n

UA har 17st elitf\u00f6rband i omr\u00e5det runt Robotyne varav 2-3st \u00e4r bataljonsstyrka.<\/p>\n

Tyv\u00e4rr s\u00e5 har vi nu f\u00e5tt en f\u00f6rsta indikation p\u00e5 strategiska reserver men det \u00e4r inte s\u00e5 illa som det l\u00e5ter. RU k\u00f6r ned 25CAA till norra Luhansk alldeles f\u00f6r tidigt \u2013 ej fullt bemannad och ej tillr\u00e4ckligt tr\u00e4nad.<\/p>\n

Detta s\u00e5 dom skall kunna k\u00f6ra 41CAA till s\u00f6dra fronten \u2013 en f\u00f6rsta varningsflagg.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1697854429276340441?s=46&t=sMS0wiMBRvKoTHqDyV2WjQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Den best\u00e5r av tre motoriserade brigader s\u00e5 kommer inte att g\u00f6ra n\u00e5gon st\u00f6rre skillnad om detta \u00e4r allt dom skickar.
\nAtt dom k\u00f6r in 25CAA till norra Luhansk alldeles f\u00f6r tidigt signalerar ocks\u00e5 att dom inte har n\u00e5gon redundans i omr\u00e5det eller hur?<\/p>\n

Lite oklart hur mycket 41CAA stridit, dess regementen verkar tidigare ha tagit existentiella f\u00f6rluster men dom har nyuppsatts och tr\u00e4nats och \u00e4r nu i omr\u00e5det norr om Kreminnaskogarna.<\/p>\n

Inte bra f\u00f6r blodtrycket att gr\u00e4va ned sig i detta men 25CAA har ju tr\u00e4nats i baser som l\u00e4tt kunnat n\u00e5s med v\u00e4st-robotarna som dels inte levererats i tillr\u00e4cklig m\u00e4ngd och sen kommer med massa f\u00f6rh\u00e5llningsregler. Tatarigami hittade 12st baser som l\u00e5g r\u00e4tt n\u00e4ra gr\u00e4nsen till UA d\u00e4r dom i lugn och ro kunde tr\u00e4na n\u00e4sta runda reserver eftersom v\u00e4st har beslutat att Ukraina inte f\u00e5r anv\u00e4nda deras vapen p\u00e5 ryskt territorium.<\/p>\n

N\u00e5t hundratal h\u00e5rda fordon som stod i en prydlig fyrkant och alla hade kunnat sl\u00e5s ut med en koordinerad robotattack.
\nNu n\u00e4r dom skall f\u00f6rflytta 41CAA till s\u00f6dra fronten s\u00e5 kommer den beh\u00f6va samlas p\u00e5 olika platser \u00e4ven i Ukraina och vi f\u00e5r v\u00e4l be till gudarna att Ukraina nu f\u00e5tt en ny laddning storm shadow och taurus s\u00e5 dom kan sl\u00e5 stenh\u00e5rt mot alla nyckelpunkter under uppmarschen och sen har tillr\u00e4ckligt med HIMARS ammunition s\u00e5 dom kommer \u00e5t CAA n\u00e4r dom skall banda upp mot sin utg\u00e5ngsgruppering.<\/p>\n

Att 25CAA f\u00f6rflyttats in i UA \u00e4r d\u00e5ligt men det skulle bli betydligt mindre d\u00e5ligt om Ukraina fick n\u00e5gra tusen robotar att jaga dom med.<\/p>\n

Har v\u00e4st INTE skickat dessa robotar trots under\u00e4ttelsel\u00e4get \u00e4r det tj\u00e4nstefel.<\/p>\n

Ni har ju precis som jag noterat att det inte varit h\u00f6gsta intensitet p\u00e5 explosionerna p\u00e5 djupet p\u00e5 ganska l\u00e4nge och att 76GAAD kunde f\u00f6rflyttas till s\u00f6dra fronten utan att jagas i ett tungstensregn.<\/p>\n

V\u00e4st spelar ett mycket farligt spel h\u00e4r \u2013 om dom inte skjuter till tillr\u00e4ckligt med f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga till Ukraina kan \u00e4ven den h\u00e4r l\u00e5gpunkten g\u00e5r UA ur h\u00e4nderna. Att Ryssland f\u00e5r tr\u00e4na just p\u00e5 sin sida gr\u00e4nsen, att Belgorod inte f\u00e5r anfallas och att man skickar exakt s\u00e5 UA h\u00e5ller n\u00e4san \u00f6ver vattenytan hela tiden \u00e4r \u2013 jag har fan inte ens ord f\u00f6r att beskriva det \ud83e\udd2c\ud83e\udd2c<\/p>\n

Nu beh\u00f6ver Ukraina all klusterammunition och termobariska vapen som finns i v\u00e4sts lador n\u00e4r dom skall sl\u00e5 sig igenom Suvorikinlinjen.<\/p>\n

Vid Bakhmut har det f\u00f6rsvunnit n\u00e5gra RU regementen och ett antal av dom som \u00e4r kvar har tidigare under v\u00e5roffensiven ansetts vara i stort sett utslagna.<\/p>\n

Det b\u00f6r vara enorm opsec d\u00e4r just nu f\u00f6r vi h\u00f6r ingenting annat \u00e4n att f\u00f6rbanden i Bakhmut nu \u00e4r inringade och att dom g\u00e5r fram\u00e5t S om bebyggelsen i Bakhmut.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6r inte ha varit n\u00e5gra st\u00f6rre terr\u00e4ngvinster f\u00f6r d\u00e5 hade Rybar skrikgr\u00e5tit.<\/p>\n

UA har fortsatt m\u00e5nga brigader med mycket bett i det omr\u00e5det varav en hel del inte satts in i strid \u00e4nnu.<\/p>\n

Uppe i norra Luhansk kan man v\u00e4l n\u00e4stan sl\u00e5 fast att RU intresse f\u00f6r offensiv svalnat avsev\u00e4rt, man drar bort sin sista offensiva reserv och sen bort med 41CAA och byter ut mot nymobiliserade.<\/p>\n

Jag har f\u00e5tt f\u00f6r mig att initiativet \u00f6verg\u00e5tt till UA d\u00e4ruppe s\u00e5 sm\u00e5tt, vi f\u00e5r se.<\/p>\n

Vid vissa punkter d\u00e4ruppe \u00e4r det r\u00e4tt uppenbart att om artilleri och dr\u00f6nare tillf\u00f6rs kommer UA kunna g\u00e5 p\u00e5 v\u00e5ldsam offensiv.<\/p>\n

Bakhmutfronten och norra Luhansk \u00e4r inte Suvorikin-minerade.<\/p>\n

H\u00e4r har ni en bild bakom lottoradens supply trucks, en hel rad tankbilar som slagits ut av HIMARS
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1697854456543486281?s=46&t=sMS0wiMBRvKoTHqDyV2WjQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Australien skickar 160st anti-uav n\u00e5gonting, akan?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1697843205528518673?s=46&t=sMS0wiMBRvKoTHqDyV2WjQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Sen f\u00f6rst\u00e5r v\u00e4l alla att \u201dSatan 2 f\u00f6rbandssatt\u201d \u00e4r ett l\u00e5gt rop p\u00e5 hj\u00e4lp fr\u00e5n en sk\u00e4ndad Putin?
\nV\u00e4stmedia skall fan inte l\u00e5ta Ryssland skramla med k\u00e4rnvapenhotet i en enda artikel \ud83e\udd2c<\/p>\n

Just nu g\u00f6r Ukraina en \u00f6verm\u00e4nsklig insats vid alla fronter, f\u00f6rlusterna kan vi gr\u00e5ta \u00f6ver efter kriget \u2013 dom \u00e4r h\u00f6gre \u00e4n vad vi tror och dom st\u00e5r absolut p\u00e5 gr\u00e4nsen till ett genombrott vid s\u00f6dra fronten.<\/p>\n

Varningstecknen \u00e4r dels att antalet robotattacker helt dog ut och l\u00e5ngr\u00e4ckviddig HIMARS likas\u00e5 \u2013 att v\u00e4st till\u00e5ter att det blir en dipp i den bek\u00e4mpningen n\u00e4r allt ligger och samlar damm p\u00e5 hyllorna \u00e4r helt obegripligt. Men sen ocks\u00e5 att man k\u00f6r ned 25CAA till Ukraina. Vi vet att 25CAA inte \u00e4r fulltalig och f\u00e4rdigmobiliserad vilket \u00e4r bra men d\u00e5ligt att dom har n\u00e5got att flytta.<\/p>\n

Enligt UA officiell kommunikation har UA framg\u00e5ngar mot Novoprokopivka \u2013 med tanke p\u00e5 att det ligger i h\u00f6gl\u00e4nt terr\u00e4ng och skall f\u00f6rsvaras av 7st regementen \u00e4r det en stark signal att det ryska f\u00f6rsvaret b\u00f6rjar f\u00e5 problem p\u00e5 riktigt.
\nVid Staromlynivka f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar sig twittergudarna RU motanfall i n\u00e4rtid och att UA g\u00e5tt i f\u00f6rsvar tempor\u00e4rt \u2013 blir intressant att se vilka f\u00f6rband som deltar i det RU f\u00f6rs\u00f6ket.<\/p>\n

Att man k\u00f6r ned 41CAA \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 ett tecken p\u00e5 att man b\u00f6rjar f\u00e5 problem vid s\u00f6dra fronten \u2013 trist att Gerasimov slutade sparka alla som klagade och faktiskt gjorde n\u00e5got.<\/p>\n

Slutsats \u00e4r att det st\u00e5r och v\u00e4ger vid s\u00f6dra fronten just nu och kan man h\u00e5lla trycket uppe bryter UA igenom. F\u00f6r det beh\u00f6ver man klustra och duscha ryssarna i tungsten dygnet runt s\u00e5 dom tappar sugen och dagens b\u00f6n g\u00e5r v\u00e4l till att v\u00e4sts politiker f\u00f6r ovanlighetens skull inte sn\u00e5lat med ammunitionstransporterna till de kritiska f\u00f6rm\u00e5gorna.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:19 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Tack f\u00f6r l\u00e4gesrapporten!
\nN\u00e5gra orosmoln p\u00e5 himlen d\u00e4r ev. sviktande leveranser \u00e4r det m\u00f6rkaste. <\/p>\n

Nu kan inte v\u00e4st vara s\u00e5 korkade att man slutar skicka mer, d\u00e5 hade man lika g\u00e4rna kunnat l\u00e4gga ner redan f\u00f6r ett \u00e5r sedan. Tror det ordnar sig.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

A video specially for those who wonder why the counter-offensive isn\u2019t going \u2019fast enough\u2019 and talk about it like it is a videogame. <\/p>\n

This is how densely mined the area\u2019s in the Zaporizhzia region are.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1698051786936893894?s=46&t=GU_QPziX2oQxK0NEN-jmtQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Tv\u00e5a efter bloggaren, sk\u00f6nt att allt \u00e4r som vanligt \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:48 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Trist att vara Wagner<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/chriso_wiki\/status\/1698060278145945947?s=46&t=GU_QPziX2oQxK0NEN-jmtQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:30 \u2013 Johan No.1 Nu \u00e4r v\u00e4l f\u00f6rbandskartorna inte att f\u00f6rlita sig p\u00e5 men jag tycker man kan se att 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