{"id":8175,"date":"2023-09-12T10:09:54","date_gmt":"2023-09-12T08:09:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-09-12\/"},"modified":"2023-09-12T10:09:54","modified_gmt":"2023-09-12T08:09:54","slug":"2023-09-12","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-09-12\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-09-12"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Det b\u00f6rjar v\u00e4l s\u00e5 sm\u00e5tt arta sig f\u00f6r ett ok Ramsteinm\u00f6te?<\/p>\n

Man \u00e4r orolig d\u00e5 minnet av det katastrofala NATOm\u00f6tet inte bleknat \u00e4nnu, det som gjorde att Putin k\u00e4nde att han kunde starta med sj\u00f6r\u00f6veri. Men Marder, Taurus och ATACMS \u00e4r inte att g\u00e5 hem tomh\u00e4nta om nu allt levereras.
\nUkraina beh\u00f6ver verkligen f\u00e5 in ett batteri robotar som kan sl\u00e5 ut m\u00e5l p\u00e5 djupet och det fort.<\/p>\n

Opytne b\u00f6rjar segla upp som r\u00e4tt sp\u00e4nnande f\u00f6r omr\u00e5det skall vara nedlusat med rebeller och \u00e4r relativt l\u00e4ttf\u00f6rsvarat. S\u00e5 pass l\u00e4ttf\u00f6rsvarat att jag helt avf\u00e4rdade offensiv ned mot flygplatsen n\u00e4r jag f\u00f6rst tittade igenom kartorna.
\nEftersom UA sj\u00e4lva inte \u00e4r starka i omr\u00e5det b\u00f6r det betyda att rebellerna har existentiella problem rimligen?
\nDet skall allts\u00e5 finnas 7st RU f\u00f6rband i bataljon eller regemente och UA \u00e4r i numer\u00e4rt underl\u00e4ge samt har terr\u00e4ngen emot sig.<\/p>\n

Enligt massa twitterrykten var det \u201dhundratals\u201d som antingen flydde eller kapitulerade och dom hade vare sig ammunition eller mat. Vad som \u00e4r sant \u00e5terst\u00e5r att se.<\/p>\n

Det ryktades ocks\u00e5 att UA fortsatte bortom vattenhindren ned mot flygplatsen men det ser risky ut och \u00e4r som b\u00e4st ett rykte.<\/p>\n

Rebellernas v\u00e4lbefinnande har varit uppe till diskussion m\u00e5nga g\u00e5nger och Muntz \u00e4r ju av \u00e5sikten att skicket \u00e4r uruselt p\u00e5 dom.<\/p>\n

Enligt Accentmannen var det n\u00e5n till mechanized \u00e4n vad vi ser p\u00e5 f\u00f6rbandskartorna men det kanske var de motoriserade p\u00e5 andra sidan utbuktningen \u2013 man \u00e4r ju nyfiken p\u00e5 om UA tillf\u00f6rt f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga fr\u00e5n den strategiska reserven.<\/p>\n

Man \u00e4r inte inne i den gamla ATO-linjen \u00e4nnu men att det r\u00f6r p\u00e5 sig \u00f6verhuvudtaget \u00e4r sensation f\u00f6r detta \u00e4r rebellernas heart-land.<\/p>\n

Klarar Ukraina att \u00e5terta den orten finns det ju m\u00e5nga sp\u00e4nnande svaga punkter l\u00e4ngs med fronterna som pl\u00f6tsligt blir intressanta d\u00e4r det inte alls \u00e4r nedlusat med rebeller.<\/p>\n

Det g\u00e5r mycket rykten vid s\u00f6dra fronten, dels om UA f\u00f6rest\u00e5ende v\u00e5ldsamma offensiv och dels om att RU dragit f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n andra fronter dit.
\nB\u00e4gge verkar st\u00e4mma \u2013 UA har \u00f6kat intensiteten vid b\u00e5de Robotyne och Staromaiorske och framf\u00f6rallt r\u00f6r det sig mot samh\u00e4llet Novoprokopivka vilket skall vara f\u00f6rsvarat nu av VDV.
\nOm dom lyckades g\u00e5 in i Opytne som dom gjorde betyder v\u00e4l det att man f\u00f6rsvagat rebellerna ocks\u00e5 d\u00e4r rimligen \u2013 kan absolut ligga sanning i det ryktet.<\/p>\n

Vid Bakhmut r\u00f6r det ocks\u00e5 p\u00e5 sig och vid norra Luhansk har ryssarna helt kommit av sig i sin avledande offensiv.
\nDet \u00e4r l\u00e4tt att hitta 4-5 platser till d\u00e4r RU \u00e4r svaga och har dom b\u00f6rjat t\u00f6mma mitt framf\u00f6r Donetsk har dom v\u00e4l b\u00f6rjat t\u00f6mma d\u00e4r ocks\u00e5 rimligen och UA har en offensiv reserv kvar som kan n\u00e5 varsomhelst inom n\u00e5n vecka \u2013 lite Kharkiv vibbar av det hela just nu. UA har varit bra p\u00e5 att \u00f6verraska hela kriget.<\/p>\n

Tar man ett steg tillbaka har UA initiativet p\u00e5 alla fronter idag, det lever n\u00e5t rykte att dom \u00e4r svaga i norra Luhansk men det \u00e4r dom inte och absolut inte i j\u00e4mf\u00f6relse nu n\u00e4r RU dragit bort VDV och ett par brigader till.<\/p>\n

Sen har vi den hotande stor-mobiliseringen och jag vill g\u00f6ra en po\u00e4ng av att vi \u00e4r i mitten av September och vi h\u00f6r ingenting. Sist det begav sig blev vi \u00f6versk\u00f6ljda av filmer.<\/p>\n

Jag tillh\u00f6r dom som tror att RU inte kan mobilisera f\u00f6r en halvmiljon ryssar i vapen \u00e4r ett st\u00f6rre hot mot eliten \u00e4n vad ukrainakriget \u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Hur kan rekryterarna veta att det inte \u00e4r alla som vill g\u00f6ra revolution som anm\u00e4ler sig frivilligt f\u00f6r att bev\u00e4pnas?
\nStrategiska reserver har ryssarna inte heller \u2013 dom hade 20 000st Wagner som hade kunnat g\u00f6ra skillnad men dom har man avskedat f\u00f6r man inte litar p\u00e5 dom.<\/p>\n

25CAA \u00e4r d\u00e5ligt tr\u00e4nad och ej fullt bemannad och det tydligaste tecknet p\u00e5 det \u00e4r att dom bara kunde skicka 2st regementen fr\u00e5n norra Luhansk.<\/p>\n

\u00d6vriga strategiska reserver finns inte idag men kommer pratas upp kraftigt under h\u00f6sten som ett stort m\u00f6rkt livsfarligt hot.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r tydligt p\u00e5 f\u00f6rbandskartorna att VDV tillsammans med spaning och marininfanteriet \u00e4r i sin sista strid \u2013 alla \u00e4r vid aktiva fronter i grop eller som ofta \u00f6veranv\u00e4nd insatsstyrka. Vid v\u00e5roffensivens start var den kvarvarande offensiva reserven runt 50 000st, lite mer kanske, enligt min bed\u00f6mning och idag \u00e4r dom kraftigt decimerade.<\/p>\n

De enda som \u00e4r offensiv reserv och kan vilas \u00e4r tre speztnazbrigader uppe vid norra Luhansk.<\/p>\n

Opsec-t\u00e4cket och inga stora kartvinster lurar media och v\u00e4st men Ukraina n\u00f6ter p\u00e5 ob\u00f6nh\u00f6rligt.<\/p>\n

RU f\u00f6rsvaret vid Staromaiorske, Bakhmut och Robotyne har tagit absolut enorma f\u00f6rluster.
\nTex. 83rd GAAB som ligger vid Klischiivka och f\u00f6r 1.5 m\u00e5nader sedan gick ut och meddelade att dom var mycket h\u00e5rt decimerade.
\nEller 72nd brigade i Bakhmut som ocks\u00e5 tog existentiellt med stryk b\u00e5de i Vuhledar och sen i Bakhmut.
\nMan ser brigader p\u00e5 kartorna men f\u00f6rband kan ha 60%-80% f\u00f6rluster och det f\u00e5r ju hitlers kartkrigande i bunkern att framst\u00e5 som kompetent.<\/p>\n

Ett tydligt tecken p\u00e5 att det g\u00e5r utf\u00f6r \u00e4r alla nyuppsatta f\u00f6rband med 1000-tal beteckning som \u00e4r en bas av \u00f6verf\u00f6rda fr\u00e5n utslagna enheter och sen toppar man upp med nymobiliserade och i alla fall i ett fall T54-55. Bataljonsstyrka p\u00e5 dom.<\/p>\n

Snittet p\u00e5 f\u00f6rluster i v\u00e5roffensiven sedan Maj \u00e4r v\u00e4l runt 17 500st och 2:1 ration st\u00e5r jag fast vid.
\nDet \u00e4r spetsen som f\u00f6rlorar proportionellt mer och det \u00e4r efter deras vinteroffensiv d\u00e4r dom i Februari n\u00e4rmade sig 25 000st d\u00f6da s\u00e5 UA \u00f6vertog initiativet i en rysk l\u00e5gpunkt.<\/p>\n

RU f\u00f6rsvarsstrid var nog dels f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka prata omkull v\u00e4st vilket verkar ha misslyckats trots v\u00e5r egen medias ih\u00e4rdiga f\u00f6rs\u00f6k att bist\u00e5 dom.<\/p>\n

Ett andra m\u00e5l \u00e4r v\u00e4l att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka h\u00e5lla ut tills de strategiska reserverna \u00e4r f\u00e4rdigtr\u00e4nade och kan bemanna groparna men mobiliserar RU ingenting s\u00e5 kan dom inte resurss\u00e4tta de strategiska reserverna.<\/p>\n

Och dom \u00e4r inte f\u00e4rdigtr\u00e4nade f\u00f6rr\u00e4ns till Januari \u00e4nd\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Ser m\u00f6rkt ut f\u00f6r chefen s\u00f6dra fronten s\u00e5ledes och han har v\u00e4l b\u00f6rjat se sig om efter asyl s\u00e5 sm\u00e5tt f\u00e5r man hoppas.<\/p>\n

Veckans roligaste var v\u00e4l \u00e4nd\u00e5 att Putin m\u00f6ter sin nya b\u00e4sta polare Kim i Vladivostok. Enligt ryktet fl\u00f6g han dit s\u00e5 mod saknar han inte tydligen. Jag f\u00f6rst\u00e5r ju ocks\u00e5 att det bara \u00e4r en maskerad f\u00f6r att Kina skall kunna \u00f6ka leveranserna men det \u00e4r \u00e4nd\u00e5 kul att se hur tragiskt ensam Putin \u00e4r, det ligger och skaver hela tiden \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Putin f\u00e5r ju hitler att framst\u00e5 som sansad.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1701512281194971563?s=46&t=RGmpcMmaZDSYInwOYtFSOA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:35 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Sommaren \u00e4r \u00f6ver n\u00e4r det sista l\u00f6vet fallit fr\u00e5n tr\u00e4den l\u00e4ngst i s\u00f6der \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Precis \u2013 f\u00f6rra h\u00f6sten var RU tross i absolut kaos och det blir samma i \u00e5r. Vemsomhelst kan ju se att man upprepar undret vid Kherson med hela s\u00f6dra fronten just nu och att det fungerar.<\/p>\n

Sen att RU soldater vid Opytne inte hade ammunition \u2013 ett rykte s\u00e5klart men ett intressant s\u00e5dant f\u00f6r d\u00e4r borde underh\u00e5llet fungera som det ska s\u00e5 d\u00e5 kanske dom helt enkelt \u00e4r l\u00e5ga p\u00e5 ammunition?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:47 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Gossips say that the eastern flank on the outskirts of the occupied settlement of Novoprokopivka has been breached and that the tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are entering the operational space in that area.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1701515955589832716?s=46&t=RGmpcMmaZDSYInwOYtFSOA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:50 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Bra uppdatering av Andy.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/andysch64494719\/status\/1701495973648695465?s=46&t=RGmpcMmaZDSYInwOYtFSOA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:01 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:02 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:09 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

V\u00e4ntat \u2013 girkin i buren tills 18 december \ud83d\ude02\ud83d\ude02<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1701583641279631694?s=46&t=3VDZTTs5HXKVmQMgxwJg5w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Uppdatering fr\u00e5n Andy, UA fram\u00e5t i kreminaskogarna<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/andysch64494719\/status\/1701826247230140630?s=46&t=rWuFH2Ig33IO9kOpdMd1gA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:56 \u2013 Johan No.1 Det b\u00f6rjar v\u00e4l s\u00e5 sm\u00e5tt arta sig f\u00f6r ett ok Ramsteinm\u00f6te? Man \u00e4r orolig d\u00e5 minnet […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8175","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraina","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"\n2023-09-12 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-09-12\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2023-09-12 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10:56 \u2013 Johan No.1 Det b\u00f6rjar v\u00e4l s\u00e5 sm\u00e5tt arta sig f\u00f6r ett ok Ramsteinm\u00f6te? 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