{"id":8387,"date":"2023-11-04T08:52:13","date_gmt":"2023-11-04T07:52:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-11-04\/"},"modified":"2023-11-04T08:52:13","modified_gmt":"2023-11-04T07:52:13","slug":"2023-11-04","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-11-04\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-11-04"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:00 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Erik14 satte ord p\u00e5 hur det k\u00e4nns v\u00e4ldigt bra ig\u00e5r \u2013 \u201djag \u00e4r inte orolig f\u00f6r kriget i Ukraina men \u00e4r f\u00f6rbannad f\u00f6r att v\u00e4st segar\u201d.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r precis s\u00e5 det \u00e4r men alltf\u00f6r m\u00e5nga vill nu f\u00e5 det till att om man \u00e4r oroad \u00f6ver v\u00e4sts seghet och den globala eskaleringen d\u00e5 m\u00e5ste det ocks\u00e5 vara skarpt l\u00e4ge i ukrainakriget.<\/p>\n

Men s\u00e5 \u00e4r det inte.<\/p>\n

Nu till goda nyheter i den globala eskaleringen, H\u2026ah blinkade just \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Detta \u00e4r det f\u00f6rsta goda nyheten p\u00e5 \u00f6ver en m\u00e5nad och man k\u00e4nner sig redan spralligare f\u00f6r just nu br\u00f6ts eskaleringsstegen man oroat sig f\u00f6r. En m\u00e5nad in i konflikten \u00e4r r\u00e4tt l\u00e4nge och tillr\u00e4ckligt f\u00f6r att n\u00e4sta kliv upp skulle spela ut. Ni minns kanske att b\u00e5de Iran och H\u2026ah hade som r\u00f6d linje att I..el skulle g\u00e5 in i G\u2026a. Lite som Putins r\u00f6da linjer med andra ord \u2013 man kan st\u00e5 och hoppa p\u00e5 dom helt utan konsekvenser.<\/p>\n

Nu \u00e5terst\u00e5r att se vad Kina visar f\u00f6r kort fram\u00f6ver, tar dom en kylig h\u00e5llning till alltihopa d\u00e5 bl\u00e5ser iallafall jag av global eskalering men vi har inte sett deras pokerhand \u00e4nnu. <\/p>\n

Sen n\u00e4r man inte trodde det kunde bli b\u00e4ttre toppar den levande legenden p\u00e5 tv\u00e5 ben Gandalf att Ukraina har tr\u00e4ffat ett m\u00e5l 700km bort med en egenutvecklad missil (robot gissar jag att Gandalf menade).<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r inget mindre \u00e4n Grom 2 som skjutits och ni minns kanske den gamla slagd\u00e4ngan \u201den Grom 2 i Kreml\u201d som med j\u00e4mna mellanrum brukar d\u00e5na ut \u00f6ver tr\u00e5den av en tr\u00e5dmedlem utan s\u00e5ngr\u00f6st.
\nDet kommer det kommer \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Sen l\u00e4t ju bloggaren oss tr\u00e5dspanare veta att Archer nu \u00e4r f\u00f6rbandssatt \u2013 kul att man f\u00e5r n\u00e5got f\u00f6r alla skattepengarna och minns att Archer har ypperlig tr\u00e4ffbild med \u201ddum\u201d 155mm ammunition samt att dom tillsammans med Arthur \u00e4r kungen av counter batter fire. 12st fick dom v\u00e4l och det b\u00f6r sprida d\u00f6d p\u00e5 flera fronter.<\/p>\n

V\u00e5rs h\u00f6ghet Erik14 postade ig\u00e5r ett twitterrykte s\u00e5 det g\u00e5r inte att hugga p\u00e5 \u00e4nnu att Ukraina dels vidgat brohuvudet vid Dnepr, dels b\u00f6rjat f\u00f6ra \u00f6ver tung materiel och ocks\u00e5 drivit in spaning p\u00e5 djupet.<\/p>\n

Vi \u00e4r ju n\u00e5gra stycken som slagit i gongongen f\u00f6r ett bra tag sedan kring Dnepr men man f\u00e5r inte gl\u00f6mma att n\u00e4r alla st\u00e5r och gapar \u00f6ver ryssarnas enorma styrka (viss ironi) vid Avdiivka s\u00e5 har Ukraina lyckats etablera ett brett brohuvud borta vid Dnepr som dom inte lyckas sl\u00e5 tillbaka.<\/p>\n

Det s\u00e4ger i alla fall mig att dom inte har obegr\u00e4nsat med reserver eller hur?<\/p>\n

Tank brigades har ocks\u00e5 till stor del h\u00e5llits tillbaka och mekf\u00f6rbandens h\u00e5rda fordon s\u00e5 vi har absolut en stor offensiv UA reserv kvar som st\u00e5r och varvar motorerna och \u00e4r tr\u00f6tta p\u00e5 varmkorv med br\u00f6d.<\/p>\n

Borta vid Dnepr st\u00e5r 5th Tank och bidar sin tid och tillsammans med hela marink\u00e5ren och en inte oansenlig numer\u00e4r SOF \u00e4r det en rej\u00e4l sm\u00e4ll d\u00e4r borta.<\/p>\n

Ryktet att dom n\u00e5tt Brylivka med spaning \u00e4r inte s\u00e5 vansinnigt som det l\u00e5ter f\u00f6r RU har inga f\u00f6rband i Oleshky sands s\u00e5 Ukraina kan n\u00e5 ganska l\u00e5ngt bara genom att r\u00f6ra sig i det omr\u00e5det.<\/p>\n

Det skulle ocks\u00e5 kunna f\u00f6rklara varf\u00f6r dom slog ut teplinskys h\u00f6gkvarter, dom hade spaning p\u00e5 plats?
\nVad ska ryssarna g\u00f6ra nu?<\/p>\n

Speciellt eftersom dom br\u00e4nt 20st (underbemmanade) brigader uppe i norra Luhansk och Avdiivka sedan i somras.
\nDeras offensiva reserv \u00e4r slut \u2013 VDV, spaning, spetznaz och marininfanteriet.<\/p>\n

Den \u201dregulj\u00e4ra\u201d offensiva reserv dom hade kvar har dom v\u00e4l br\u00e4nt i Avdiivka och uppe i norra Luhansk. Det \u00e4r allts\u00e5 vanliga MRR och TR som legat i bakre och varit i n\u00e5gorlunda skick.<\/p>\n

Drar dom bort f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n annan front kommer Ukraina klippa till d\u00e4r ist\u00e4llet.<\/p>\n

Tjusningen med korsningen av Dnepr \u00e4r f\u00f6ljande f\u00f6r dom som missade Davyidiv Brid \u2013
\nUkraina g\u00e5r \u00f6ver p\u00e5 l\u00e4mplig plats och g\u00e5r i f\u00f6rsvar under eget artparaply och med en skog av dr\u00f6nare.
\nF\u00f6r att ryska laget skall kunna komma \u00e5t dom m\u00e5ste dom banda upp sin offensiva reserv, eller andra f\u00f6rband som f\u00e5tt bli offensiva, p\u00e5 landsv\u00e4g f\u00f6r att komma upp till UFA, d\u00e4refter skall dom organisera sig och sedan skall dom hoppa p\u00e5 det ukrainska f\u00f6rsvaret.<\/p>\n

Eftersom allt detta sker under UA artilleri, CAS, ahkp och dr\u00f6nare tar dom astronomiska f\u00f6rluster redan innan dom kommit fram till f\u00f6rsvarna.<\/p>\n

Rinse and reperat, vilket ryssarna nu gjort \u00e4nda sedan UA uppr\u00e4ttade brohuvudet borta vid Antonovskybron.
\nS\u00e5nt h\u00e4r svider ordentligt f\u00f6r ryssarna och kommer inte med i de dagliga f\u00f6rlusterna eftersom det \u00e4r indirekta vapen och all kanske inte \u00e4r filmat gissar jag?<\/p>\n

V\u00e5r gissning har varit att dom kommer sl\u00e4ppa s\u00f6dra fronten n\u00e4r dom tvingas att v\u00e4lja och det ser onekligen ut s\u00e5 just nu.<\/p>\n

RU har f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkt upp alla andra fronter men l\u00e5tit s\u00f6dra fronten strida med det dom har efter den stora massakern p\u00e5 VDV.<\/p>\n

Vi kommer f\u00e5 se om det \u00e4r som vi tror \u2013 att RU har tagit proportionellt h\u00f6gre f\u00f6rluster och UA har lyckats bevara offensiv kapacitet f\u00f6r r\u00e4tt tillf\u00e4lle.<\/p>\n

Vi har ju UA egna uppgifter att g\u00e5 p\u00e5 som \u00e4r 1:5 som normall\u00e4ge under v\u00e5roffensiven och sedan har det naturligtvis dragit iv\u00e4g rej\u00e4lt med Avdiivka, norra Luhansk och Vuhledar.<\/p>\n

Personligen tycker jag att tr\u00e5dens sorgeperiod nu kan ta slut, sj\u00e4lv sveptes jag inte med i den men d\u00e5 har jag haft en s\u00e5n d\u00e4r incident p\u00e5 jobbet igen. Det \u00e4r en talang hos best\u00e4llaren som med j\u00e4mna mellanrum brukar anklaga oss f\u00f6r att g\u00e5 ihop med entrepren\u00f6ren och lura av best\u00e4llaren pengar i uppbl\u00e5sta fakturor. Den h\u00e4r g\u00e5ngen var det sv\u00e5rf\u00f6rsvarat s\u00e5 vi fick anstr\u00e4nga oss lite extra. Hade man tagit pengar hade man ju i alla fall haft dom men nu \u00e4r vi helt oskyldiga \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

Positiv \u2013 Positiv s\u00e5ledes, \u00e4ven n\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller den globala eskaleringen d\u00e4r jag var negativ \u2013 positiv s\u00e5 det sammantaget blev neutral \u2013 positiv men nu \u00e4r allts\u00e5 gl\u00e4djem\u00e4taren i taket igen \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:44 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Noel \u00e4r v\u00e4l p\u00e5litlig men inga v\u00e4xlar p\u00e5 denna \u201dskuldbel\u00e4gg offret\u201d\u2026<\/p>\n

Ge dom det dom vill ha ist\u00e4llet \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1720756839866908764?s=46&t=fV5mEfftFKnYx745Ibomaw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Zelensky f\u00f6rnekar s\u00e5 f\u00f6rmodligen rysk psyops<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/gerashchenko_en\/status\/1720817357889659230?s=46&t=fV5mEfftFKnYx745Ibomaw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:42 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

Det f\u00e5r verkligen hoppas!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:20 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Vet att jag inte \u00e4r f\u00f6rst men svartbygget svajar bet\u00e4nkligt.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/girkingirkin\/status\/1720827385589669951?s=46&t=fV5mEfftFKnYx745Ibomaw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:28 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1 Tack och fint att se att du \u00e4r positivt \u00f6ver hela linjen!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:00 \u2013 Johan No.1 Erik14 satte ord p\u00e5 hur det k\u00e4nns v\u00e4ldigt bra ig\u00e5r \u2013 \u201djag \u00e4r inte orolig f\u00f6r 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