{"id":8394,"date":"2023-11-11T09:09:28","date_gmt":"2023-11-11T08:09:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-11-11\/"},"modified":"2023-11-11T09:09:28","modified_gmt":"2023-11-11T08:09:28","slug":"2023-11-11","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-11-11\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-11-11"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Enligt rykten har RU f\u00f6rberett en sm\u00e4ll p\u00e5 40 000st vid Avdiivka. Det \u00e4r oklart om det \u00e4r nu eller sammantaget s\u00e5 dom is\u00e5fall \u00e4r 15 000st f\u00e4rre idag.<\/p>\n

Om ni bet\u00e4nker att st\u00f6rre delen av den offensiva reserven b\u00f6r ha kommit fr\u00e5n norra Luhansk och sen tillf\u00f6rdes de 12 000st fr\u00e5n 25th CAA s\u00e5 \u00e4r norra Luhansk sannolikt snorkorta p\u00e5 f\u00f6rband nu.<\/p>\n

Dom har ju haft sitt eget Avdiivka d\u00e4ruppe med 10st brigader nollade i stort sett.
\n30 000st till \u00e4r vad\u00e5 (40 000st \u2013 25CAA) \u2013 8st brigader till?<\/p>\n

Och man drog bort hela VDV fr\u00e5n det omr\u00e5det samt en spetznazbrigad vilket var den offensiva reserven.<\/p>\n

-Norra Luhansk \u00e4r idag underbemannat ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6r f\u00f6rsvar om UA g\u00e5r p\u00e5 offensiv i det omr\u00e5det med tillr\u00e4cklig numer\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Sen \u00e4r det fortfarande tomt uppe vid norra fronten, Putin r\u00e4knar kallt med att v\u00e4st forts\u00e4tter g\u00e5 hans \u00e4renden \ud83e\udd2c
\n-En st\u00f6rre operation vid norra fronten skulle f\u00e5 stor framg\u00e5ng, minst Belgorod.<\/p>\n

Jag gissar att RU f\u00f6rsvar vid Dnepr \u00e4r runt +20 000st i f\u00f6rband och att det \u00e4r mycket tredjesorteringen och skytte utan fordon. Absolut mindre \u00e4n 30 000st.
\nDet finns ett trettiotal f\u00f6rband d\u00e4r, 5-6 \u00e4r i mycket d\u00e5ligt skick och 15st \u00e4r bataljonsgrupper gissar jag.<\/p>\n

-S\u00e5 tror jag det ser ut kring Dnepr och marink\u00e5ren kan sk\u00e4ra igenom det f\u00f6rsvaret nu n\u00e4r dom etablerat sina brohuvuden. Det finns hundratals h\u00e5rda fordon, elitf\u00f6rband, stor m\u00e4ngd SOF, stor m\u00e4ngd dr\u00f6narvapen, artilleri, ahkp och spetsflyg som sakta utvidgar brohuvudena. D\u00e4r kommer det inte d\u00f6 ut.<\/p>\n

Ig\u00e5r fick vi se en film i bloggen d\u00e4r en kolonn lastbilar slogs ut p\u00e5 djupet bakom Dnepr-fronten.
\nEftersom vi redan har facit p\u00e5 Kherson s\u00e5 f\u00f6rst\u00e5r vi ju nu att Ukraina sl\u00e5r ut allt p\u00e5 motorv\u00e4g p\u00e5 djupet s\u00e5 Dneprfronten blir lika isolerad som Kherson \u2013 sv\u00e5rt att f\u00e5 fram underh\u00e5ll och reserver n\u00e4r dom d\u00f6r p\u00e5 landsv\u00e4g.<\/p>\n

Den h\u00e4r \u00e4r lite sp\u00e4nnande, UA slog ig\u00e5r natt ut tv\u00e5 m\u00e5l djupt inne p\u00e5 ryskt territorium i Kolomna och Kotovsk \u2013 h\u00f6gv\u00e4rdiga m\u00e5l.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1723102440138899651?s=46&t=i7Hn_qJF_2TNnLQyUxYFGg<\/a><\/p>\n

Samtidigt som dom g\u00e5r ut och meddelar att om RU sl\u00e5r mot UA elinfrastruktur denna vinter s\u00e5 kommer UA sl\u00e5 mot RU oljeindustri \u2013 raffinaderier, pipelines och oljef\u00e4lten rimligen?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/kyivindependent\/status\/1723140383285146026?s=46&t=i7Hn_qJF_2TNnLQyUxYFGg<\/a><\/p>\n

Detta \u00e4r makal\u00f6st snyggt, det fungerade ju med ryska flottan s\u00e5 varf\u00f6r inte med terrorbombningarna?
\nVi i tr\u00e5den har ju gissat p\u00e5 det h\u00e4r ett tag nu n\u00e4r UA sa n\u00e5got om \u201d\u00f6ga f\u00f6r \u00f6ga\u201d eller vad det nu var kring den f\u00f6rmodade terrorbombningen nu i vinter.
\nMin gissning \u00e4r att om det ens blir en start s\u00e5 kommer den stanna av r\u00e4tt fort n\u00e4r oljef\u00e4lten b\u00f6rjar brinna kuwait-style. Ukraina vet precis hur RU kommer reagera.<\/p>\n

Tr\u00e5den har ju slagit i gongongen f\u00f6r ett bra tag sedan kring \u00f6verg\u00e5ngen \u00f6ver Dnepr, n\u00e4r vi fick reda p\u00e5 att marink\u00e5ren flyttats tillbaka till Kherson ins\u00e5g vi v\u00e4l vart\u00e5t det barkade s\u00e5 nedan \u00e4r ingen nyhet. David D \u00e4r intressant f\u00f6r han har tagit en liknande positiv position som tr\u00e5den och backar upp det med fakta men helt utanf\u00f6r vad som \u00e4r den g\u00e4ngse uppfattningen. Hittills tycker jag att han ofta f\u00e5r r\u00e4tt \u2013 till exempel med motanfallen vid Avdiivka.
\nNedan \u00f6vning f\u00e5r v\u00e4l kanske ses som det som b\u00e4st men han f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker sig p\u00e5 att v\u00e4rdes\u00e4tta styrkef\u00f6rh\u00e5llandena hos UA och RU vid Dnepr.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1723188953270915189?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

H\u00e4r har ni Tjeckiens bidrag till UA som nu avhemligats, det \u00e4r v\u00e4ldigt mycket mer \u00e4n vad vi k\u00e4nde till. Det \u00e4r allts\u00e5 bara landet Tjeckien.
\nPolen \u00e4r ju en stor givare, Bulgarien, sen minns ni de d\u00e4r tolv l\u00e4nderna som bidrog med \u00f6stmateriel som ville vara hemliga, hundratals Leo1 och s\u00e5 vidare \u2013 Ukraina har f\u00e5tt enorma m\u00e4ngder materiel.
\nJag \u00e4r av \u00e5sikten att Ukraina har paritet i stridsvagnar och framf\u00f6rallt b\u00e4ttre vagnar med dugliga riktmedel samtidigt som RU f\u00e5r fler T62 och T54-55.
\nVid Novoprokopivka sk\u00f6t Leo2 prick p\u00e5 ett regementes T62 som inte hade r\u00e4ckvidden och slog ut enorma m\u00e4ngder.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1723062717752254786?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Oryx har 84st utslagna T62 f\u00f6r ryssarna och de f\u00f6rsta T54-55. Detta betyder att RU anv\u00e4nder T62 i stor m\u00e4ngd. Eftersom Oryx underrapporterar och allt inte \u00e4r utslaget har v\u00e4l RU 600st T62 vid fronterna eller d\u00e4rikring kanske?
\nDom r\u00e4knas till den ryska totalen.<\/p>\n

Perpetuas anekdotiska f\u00f6rluster men dom visar p\u00e5 en st\u00e4ndig \u00f6vervikt f\u00f6r RU.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andrewperpetua\/status\/1723187259887730827?s=46&t=i7Hn_qJF_2TNnLQyUxYFGg<\/a><\/p>\n

Vi har ocks\u00e5 ett ursp\u00e5rat t\u00e5g i Ryazan efter en explosion \u2013 frihetsd\u00e5den \u00f6kar exponentiellt just nu.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1723243941955277083?s=46&t=i7Hn_qJF_2TNnLQyUxYFGg<\/a><\/p>\n

P\u00e5 twitter har algoritmerna b\u00f6rjat driva nazi..tretorik i fl\u00f6dena fr\u00e5n uppenbart proryska konton. Det \u00e4r mot I..el naturligtvis men det \u00e4r referenser till gas, l\u00e4ger och att mannen med mustachen hade r\u00e4tt. Utan att extrapolera l\u00e4ngre \u00e4n s\u00e5, det \u00e4r m\u00e4rkliga tider vi lever i.<\/p>\n

Avslutar med en feelgood film, samtidigt som ryska soldater sk\u00e4ndar, torterar och m\u00f6rdar dessa barn \u00e4r de ukrainska soldaterna precis som oss vilket vi i tr\u00e5den visste men historierna om m\u00f6rdande naz\u2026er v\u00e4grar d\u00f6 ut, snygg rysk p\u00e5verkansoperation.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/slavauk30722777\/status\/1723197958852931882?s=46&t=i7Hn_qJF_2TNnLQyUxYFGg<\/a><\/p>\n

Jag b\u00f6rjar bli van med att g\u00e5 emot str\u00f6mmen och kan ju alltid g\u00e5 och g\u00f6mma mig i ekonomitr\u00e5darna n\u00e4r det blir f\u00f6r v\u00e5ldsamt men jag ser fortfarande inte sk\u00e4len till tr\u00e5dens depp som v\u00e4l s\u00e5 sm\u00e5tt b\u00f6rjar sl\u00e4ppa h\u00e4r \ud83d\ude00
\n-Det \u00e4r h\u00f6g niv\u00e5 p\u00e5 befrielsed\u00e5den i Ryssland.
\n-Ryssland f\u00e5r ammunition fr\u00e5n NK och ber l\u00e4nder skickade exporterade vapen i retur \u2013 100st helikoptermotorer fr\u00e5n Egypten kan ni ju gissa hur helikopterflottan m\u00e5r eller hur?
\n-Dnepr-offensiven \u00e4r inga spanare i kajaker, det \u00e4r ett seri\u00f6st f\u00f6rs\u00f6k och det har varit uppenbart l\u00e4nge.
\n-Avdiivka och norra Luhansk g\u00e5r extremt d\u00e5ligt f\u00f6r ryssarna, dom f\u00f6rlorar enorma m\u00e4ngder materiel och soldater.
\n-Ukraina har br\u00e4nt igenom de ryska f\u00f6rr\u00e5den och Ryssland har de facto inte mobiliserat \u2013 det senaste \u00e4r obestridligt.
\n-P\u00e5 en m\u00e5nad f\u00f6rlorade Ryssland 20% av alla stridsvagnar dom har i kriget, medr\u00e4knat de minst 30% som st\u00e5r med tekniska fel.
\n-V\u00e4st st\u00f6d sviktar inte \u2013 EU har just gjort Georgien, Moldavien och Ukraina till kandidatland f\u00f6r EU.<\/p>\n

Visst b\u00f6r v\u00e4st g\u00f6ra mer, det har varit ett genomg\u00e5ende problem hela kriget men det betyder inte att Ryssland vinner, bara att Ukraina lider mer \u00e4n n\u00f6dv\u00e4ndigt.<\/p>\n

Alla som l\u00e4ser f\u00f6ljande b\u00f6r t\u00e4nka ett varv kring detta \u2013 vad tror ni det finns f\u00f6r associerad risk med att mobilisera de 1-2 miljoner ryska m\u00e4n och ge dom vapen som skulle beh\u00f6vas f\u00f6r att om inte vinna kriget s\u00e5 i alla fall f\u00e5 till ett stillest\u00e5nd?<\/p>\n

Den ryska eliten \u00e4r absolut livr\u00e4dda f\u00f6r folklig revolution och 1-2 miljoner man under vapen \u00e4r ostoppbara. Det f\u00f6rsta f\u00f6rband som fick lite frihet f\u00f6rs\u00f6kte genomf\u00f6ra palatskupp och VDV hade lovat Prigozin sitt st\u00f6d men svek honom i sista stund.<\/p>\n

Det_har_redan_h\u00e4nt.<\/p>\n

Det sista den ryska eliten vill ha \u00e4r miljoner arga bev\u00e4pnade ryssar \u2013 det blir ingen mobilisering.<\/p>\n

Att ryssarna inte lyckats knuffa tillbaka Ukraina \u00f6ver Dnepr \u00e4r ett mycket tydligt tecken vart\u00e5t detta \u00e4r p\u00e5 v\u00e4g.
\nRyska f\u00f6rlusterna sedan i somras och fram tills nu har varit all time high i det mesta och \u00e4r p\u00e5 fortsatt h\u00f6g niv\u00e5.<\/p>\n

N\u00e4r vi \u00e4r d\u00e4r f\u00e5r vi se niv\u00e5n \u00f6ver positiv-positiv men inte \u00e4nnu.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:41 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4dTack!
\nM\u00e5nga positiva delar i dagens ess\u00e4 som tillsammans, tydligt pekar i r\u00e4tt riktning.<\/p>\n

Tycker det \u00e4r lite synd att de varnade n\u00e4r de g\u00e4ller att sl\u00e5 mot Rysslands energisektor men man hoppas v\u00e4l att det kanske kan verka avskr\u00e4ckande.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:50 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

En tydlig gr\u00f6n uppil f\u00f6r Ukraina och en r\u00f6d ned\u00e5tpekande pil f\u00f6r Ryssland.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:16 \u2013 Johan No.1 Enligt rykten har RU f\u00f6rberett en sm\u00e4ll p\u00e5 40 000st vid Avdiivka. Det \u00e4r oklart om […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8394","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraina","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"\n2023-11-11 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-11-11\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2023-11-11 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10:16 \u2013 Johan No.1 Enligt rykten har RU f\u00f6rberett en sm\u00e4ll p\u00e5 40 000st vid Avdiivka. 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