{"id":8401,"date":"2023-11-18T09:58:52","date_gmt":"2023-11-18T08:58:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-11-18\/"},"modified":"2023-11-18T09:58:52","modified_gmt":"2023-11-18T08:58:52","slug":"2023-11-18","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-11-18\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-11-18"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:39 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Stor r\u00f6d buss m\u00f6ter litet mjukt pinhataliknande bylte som gnyr.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1725430685769367613?s=46&t=GpTNMQEXifhXqrs1ZOUC4Q<\/a><\/p>\n

Och om inte det tas f\u00f6r absolut sanning s\u00e5 verkar Kina i alla fall deeskalera.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1724890496097521885?s=46&t=gFHbqmNr7aEeJNRNjrJNVA<\/a>
\nKina och Iran f\u00f6rst\u00e5r kanske vart\u00e5t det h\u00e4r \u00e4r p\u00e5 v\u00e4g, kanske dom l\u00e4ser tr\u00e5den vem vet, och det \u00e4r d\u00e4rf\u00f6r b\u00e4gge s\u00e5 sm\u00e5tt b\u00f6rjat deeskalera.<\/p>\n

I min nisch finns det v\u00e4ldigt mycket jobb, det byggs hamnar \u00f6verallt och jag har tolkat det som en backlogg efter COVID men funderar ocks\u00e5 p\u00e5 om v\u00e4rlden kanske kan komma ur den h\u00e4r m\u00f6jliga recessionen genom att Ryssland f\u00e5r ta hela sm\u00e4llen, slut mitt g\u00e4stspel i ekonomiska fr\u00e5gor \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Hur g\u00e5r det vid s\u00f6dra fronten \u2013 enligt Accentmannen drog RU bort reserverna fr\u00e5n s\u00f6dra fronten f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rst\u00e4rka upp i Avdiivka \u2013 s\u00e5 g\u00e5r det!
\nDetta \u00e4r allts\u00e5 inte fulltaliga brigader utan dom har roterats in och ut ur strid vid s\u00f6dra fronten ett par g\u00e5nger men det betyder att RU har \u00e4nnu s\u00e4mre densitet p\u00e5 f\u00f6rbanden d\u00e4r \u00e4n vad vi gissat.
\nhttps:\/\/youtu.be\/-v0v1H-qJx8?si=Q4In1G1a3XfkLTV2<\/a><\/p>\n

Vi har v\u00e4l gissat att vid Dnipro har RU en bit \u00f6ver 20 000st men absolut mindre \u00e4n 30 000st. Till dags dato har dom f\u00f6rlorat 3500st och \u201ddussintals\u201d med h\u00e5rdvara \u2013 k\u00e4nnbart minst sagt n\u00e4r det fortfarande bara \u00e4r etablering av brohuvud \u00f6ver Dnepr med kompanistorlek p\u00e5 ett par platser.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/kyivindependent\/status\/1725518402574332027?s=46&t=GpTNMQEXifhXqrs1ZOUC4Q<\/a><\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r fortfarande den stora diskussionen kring att Ryssland helt enkelt inte kan f\u00f6rlora f\u00f6r att dom kastar in s\u00e5 m\u00e5nga soldater i Ukraina s\u00e5 att landet drunknar och k\u00f6rs \u00f6ver, av ryska soldater.
\nF\u00f6r det f\u00f6rsta har ju Ukraina fler soldater i arm\u00e9n i Ukraina \u00e4n vad ryssarna har i Ukraina \u2013 g\u00e5r det d\u00e5 ens att argumentera f\u00f6r att Ryssland skall vinna med numer\u00e4r om dom har en l\u00e4gre numer\u00e4r?<\/p>\n

F\u00f6r att detta skall kunna ske m\u00e5ste Ryssland dels decimera Ukrainas halvmiljon i arm\u00e9n till mot noll v\u00e4l och vi vet enligt utsago fr\u00e5n UA att f\u00f6rlustration \u00e4r 1:5 s\u00e5 RU kommer is\u00e5fall f\u00f6rlora 2.5mnr soldater i den processen.
\nKlarar dom det \u2013 jag tror inte det.<\/p>\n

Ryssland har redan f\u00f6rlorat det h\u00e4r kriget men eftersom det forts\u00e4tter tills dom kastat in handduken eller den sista ryssen \u00e4r d\u00f6d i sin grop s\u00e5 kommer det g\u00e5 p\u00e5 efterbr\u00e4nnkammaren ett tag till men det skall inte f\u00f6rv\u00e4xlas med att Ryssland vinner.<\/p>\n

Visst, Ryssland situationsanpassar men vad kallar vi is\u00e5fall\u2013 ATACMS, klustrad ryss, Storm Shadow, CV90, Archer, b\u00e5lgetingsv\u00e4rmen SOF, dr\u00f6narvapnet, rensning av v\u00e4rnsystem, strv som prickskyttar, att ha en flotta utan att ha en flotta, befrielsed\u00e5d i Ryssland, SOF p\u00e5 djupet, EV vapen och vad mer\u2026<\/p>\n

Ukraina befriade 50% av er\u00f6vrat territorium UTAN att ha allt detta och nu har dom fler och b\u00e4ttre stridsvagnar \u00e4n vid krigets start, fler och b\u00e4ttre IFV \u00e4n vid krigets start och s\u00e5 vidare om inte i all o\u00e4ndlighet s\u00e5 i alla fall r\u00e4tt l\u00e4nge.<\/p>\n

Omr\u00e5det bakom s\u00f6dra fronten \u00e4r i olika stadier av f\u00f6rfall och SOF och partisaner g\u00f6r livet sten-surt f\u00f6r bel\u00e4grarna.
\nJo, det \u00e4r sv\u00e5rt att avf\u00e4rda strategiska reserver tills n\u00e5gon front faller f\u00f6r dom kan ju fortfarande komma \u00e4ven fast ingen sett dom.<\/p>\n

Putins b\u00e4sta utfall idag \u00e4r att lyckas h\u00e5lla er\u00f6vrade omr\u00e5den till kanske 2500st d\u00f6da och s\u00e5rade per dag och n\u00e5t femtiotal utslagna h\u00e5rda fordon (kanske lite h\u00f6g siffra men f\u00f6r effekt\u2026).
\nD\u00e5 kommer sanktionerna \u00f6ka bit f\u00f6r bit och dom sitter i frysen.
\nSkall detta fortg\u00e5 f\u00f6r evigt, i hundratals \u00e5r?
\nUkraina kommer inte ge upp och v\u00e4sts st\u00f6d kommer inte minska, det spelar ingen roll hur mycket vissa hoppas p\u00e5 det \u2013 kommer inte h\u00e4nda.<\/p>\n

Kriget g\u00e5r p\u00e5 efterbr\u00e4nnkammaren f\u00f6r Putin och dom har redan haft ett kuppf\u00f6rs\u00f6k samt r\u00e4tt stora problem med ordningen i arm\u00e9n \u2013 varf\u00f6r hade man annars beh\u00f6vt inf\u00f6ra sp\u00e4rrf\u00f6rbanden?<\/p>\n

Vi \u00e4r p\u00e5 det sluttande planet f\u00f6r Putin och Ryssland.<\/p>\n

Ungef\u00e4r 5000st UA krigsf\u00e5ngar i Ryssland, och UA s\u00e4ger konstant att dom har mindre RU f\u00e5ngar \u00e4n vad som sitter i f\u00e5ngenskap i RU \u2013 sant eller inte men det \u00e4r det b\u00e4sta estimat vi har p\u00e5 RU f\u00e5ngar i Ukraina, under 5000st.
\nJag har f\u00e5tt f\u00f6r mig att det \u00e4r betydligt mer s\u00e5 Ukraina kanske som omv\u00e4xling inte h\u00e5ller sig till saningen, vem vet.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r helt v\u00e4rdel\u00f6st att UA f\u00e5r mindre ammunition, dom beh\u00f6ver resurss\u00e4tta n\u00e4sta offensiv och man chansar inte med s\u00e5nt h\u00e4r \u2013 v\u00e4st sk\u00e4rpning \ud83e\udd2c
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/kyivindependent\/status\/1725453990911975649?s=46&t=GpTNMQEXifhXqrs1ZOUC4Q<\/a><\/p>\n

Dom h\u00e4r baserna borde man skjuta bort \u2013 v\u00e4st sk\u00e4rpning \ud83e\udd2c
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/tatarigami_ua\/status\/1725628555285893436?s=46&t=GpTNMQEXifhXqrs1ZOUC4Q<\/a><\/p>\n

V\u00e4ldigt mycket l\u00f6gner fr\u00e5n ryskt h\u00e5ll, s\u00e5 pass mycket att vissa ryska milbloggare protesterar. Ingen nyhet f\u00f6r oss i tr\u00e5den men vissa tror ju fortfarande att sanningen ligger n\u00e5nstans mitt emellan men det g\u00f6r den allts\u00e5 inte \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/TheStudyofWar\/status\/1725361431736958982?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Perpatuas sm\u00e5tt enorma d\u00f6dsruna, anekdotisk men intressant.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andrewperpetua\/status\/1725730842297708733?s=46&t=GpTNMQEXifhXqrs1ZOUC4Q<\/a><\/p>\n

N\u00e5n legend i tr\u00e5den utan begynnande h\u00e5ravfall postade denna om BTR40, dom har allts\u00e5 fotats uppradade och iordninggjorda vid n\u00e5gon dep\u00e5 \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andreibtvt\/status\/1725110397018022118?s=46&t=h6xqfCsM34WI2GUUrIUJHA<\/a><\/p>\n

Universiteten \u00e4r en klassisk rysk arean f\u00f6r p\u00e5verkan och det vi ser just nu s\u00e4tter jag n\u00e5gra sedlar i lokal valuta d\u00e4r jag \u00e4r p\u00e5 att det eldas p\u00e5 av ryssarna.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1725643474626621771?s=46&t=GpTNMQEXifhXqrs1ZOUC4Q<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/radiogenoa\/status\/1725533182001295501?s=46&t=GpTNMQEXifhXqrs1ZOUC4Q<\/a><\/p>\n

Det skall bli intressant att se om \u201dAzovst\u00f6ten\u201d r\u00e4cker f\u00f6r att p\u00e5b\u00f6rja processen med att Ryssland v\u00e4nder sig in\u00e5t. Min gissning \u00e4r att det r\u00e4cker men dom rackarna har visat sig ovanligt strykt\u00e5liga s\u00e5 h\u00e4r l\u00e5ngt s\u00e5 allt kan v\u00e4l h\u00e4nda.<\/p>\n

Teplinsky p\u00e5 sjukhus, h\u00f6ga f\u00f6rluster vid Dnepr, man drog bort f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n s\u00f6dra fronten och UA har \u00e5terigen initiativet. Fr\u00e5gan som st\u00e5r obesvarad \u00e4r v\u00e4l vem som leder f\u00f6rsvaret av Dneprfronten just nu?<\/p>\n

Blev sent och lite kort men ute och ser sand v\u00e4xa idag igen, r\u00e4tt livligt p\u00e5 jobbet.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:53 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:39 \u2013 Johan No.1 Stor r\u00f6d buss m\u00f6ter litet mjukt pinhataliknande bylte som gnyr. https:\/\/twitter.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1725430685769367613?s=46&t=GpTNMQEXifhXqrs1ZOUC4Q Och om inte det tas 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