{"id":8403,"date":"2023-11-19T10:33:29","date_gmt":"2023-11-19T09:33:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-11-19\/"},"modified":"2023-11-19T10:33:29","modified_gmt":"2023-11-19T09:33:29","slug":"2023-11-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-11-19\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-11-19"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Vi fick ju veta h\u00e4romsistens att Ukraina f\u00f6rlorat 70 000st d\u00f6da var det v\u00e4l och det ger en ratio p\u00e5 1:5 mot RU f\u00f6rluster.
\nFinns det n\u00e5got som talar f\u00f6r att den ration kommer g\u00e5 ned fram\u00f6ver?
\nF\u00f6r att Ryssland skall kunna vinna det h\u00e4r kriget beh\u00f6ver dom kunna absorbera 5ggr UA f\u00f6rluster.
\nIdag har v\u00e4l ett par miljoner i mobiliserbar \u00e5lder l\u00e4mnat Ryssland, 3-3.5 miljoner talades det om men f\u00f6r mig \u00e4r det oklart.
\nF\u00f6rluster i Ukraina tvistar v\u00e4l tr\u00e5den om men f\u00f6r min del \u00e4r det 300k + 600k s\u00e5rade minst.
\nRedan idag \u00e4r poolen av m\u00f6jliga kandidater reducerad med 4.5mnr personer men nu verkar ju ryssarna mobilisera alla som kan st\u00e5 upp utan st\u00f6d s\u00e5 poolen av mobiliserbara har v\u00e4l gjorts st\u00f6rre.<\/p>\n

N\u00e4stan alla kategorier som MBT, IFV, artilleri och barbarer har haft sina h\u00f6gsta dagliga siffror under h\u00f6sten samt ocks\u00e5 haft ett h\u00f6gt medel. Det var bara f\u00f6rsta m\u00e5naden av kriget som \u00e4r i paritet med senaste m\u00e5nadernas ryska f\u00f6rluster. Det \u00e4r naturligtvis en kombo av att b\u00e5da sidor anfaller nu under h\u00f6sten.<\/p>\n

Enligt officiell UA k\u00e4lla har RU tryckts tillbaka 3km-8km fr\u00e5n Dnepr i dagsl\u00e4get. Detta reflekteras inte alls p\u00e5 kartorna s\u00e5 f\u00e5r se om det blir n\u00e5n justering fram\u00f6ver.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpress\/status\/1726145537513066865?s=46&t=kXF_fnyjjBXxXczsKQ7WyA<\/a><\/p>\n

Erik14 avh\u00f6ll sig fr\u00e5n tweeten om f\u00f6rslag p\u00e5 ny rysk f\u00f6rsvarslinje vid Dnepr och vi har som sagt inte sett n\u00e5gon retr\u00e4tt \u00e4nnu \u00e4ven om meddelandena p\u00e5 TASS och RIA som kom simultant f\u00f6resl\u00e5r att dom g\u00e5r i flyttankar.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1726002191696093231?s=46&t=kXF_fnyjjBXxXczsKQ7WyA<\/a> <\/p>\n

S\u00e5 utan att kommentera sannolikheten tittar vi p\u00e5 om det \u00e4r en sund plan eller inte.<\/p>\n

Dom har egentligen t\u00e4nkt sig (enligt ovan l\u00e4nk som \u00e4r ett twitterrykte!) att ha samma l\u00e4ngd p\u00e5 fronten och bara backa bortom artilleriavst\u00e5nd.<\/p>\n

Anledningen \u00e4r naturligtvis f\u00f6r att UA st\u00e5r p\u00e5 dominerande terr\u00e4ng p\u00e5 andra sidan och lobbar in indirekt och direkt eld p\u00e5 f\u00f6rsvaret s\u00e5 det \u00e4r helt oh\u00e5llbart \u2013 n\u00e5got m\u00e5ste g\u00f6ras och det \u00e4r framtvingat.<\/p>\n

Dom t\u00e4nker sig linjen i omr\u00e5den som idag inte \u00e4r bef\u00e4sta alls och dom skall f\u00f6rankra den i bebyggelse i N och ned till kusten i S.<\/p>\n

Till detta beh\u00f6ver dom en mycket h\u00f6g numer\u00e4r eller hur?<\/p>\n

Dom kommer inte kunna retirera med befintliga f\u00f6rband i god ordning s\u00e5 dom beh\u00f6ver tillf\u00f6ra strategiska reserver eller ta fr\u00e5n andra fronter.<\/p>\n

Direkt kommer UA att f\u00f6ra \u00f6ver alla tyngre f\u00f6rm\u00e5gor \u00f6ver Dnepr och sen n\u00e5r dom denna nya linje med allt inom veckor.<\/p>\n

Dom kommer leta svaga punkter och eftersom det h\u00e4r inte \u00e4r v\u00e4l f\u00f6rberett finns dom.<\/p>\n

Det blir ett hack i kurvan p\u00e5 v\u00e4gen att \u00f6verge Dneprfronten helt. Det enda logiska vore en NS linje genom Melitopol och att f\u00f6rsvara landbryggan ned till Krim samt en f\u00f6rdr\u00f6jningsstrid om dom nu \u00e4r kapabla till det.<\/p>\n

Ig\u00e5r fick vi reda p\u00e5 att RU drog f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n s\u00f6dra fronten till Avdiivka.
\nIdag fick vi reda p\u00e5 att UA tagit dominerande terr\u00e4ng vid Horlivka, tv\u00e5 slaggh\u00f6gar.
\nDet \u00c4R en myt att ryssarna \u00e4r starka f\u00f6r att dom anfaller vid Avdiivka och det \u00e4r precis den bilden dom vill m\u00e5la.
\nDom klarar inte att h\u00e5lla Dneprlinjen och har svaga punkter p\u00e5 andra platser f\u00f6r att kunna f\u00f6ra offensiva operationer vid Avdiivka.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/intelcrab\/status\/1725919750088204503?s=46&t=kXF_fnyjjBXxXczsKQ7WyA<\/a><\/p>\n

Man skall ha mycket klart f\u00f6r sig att Ukraina har en offensiv reserv kvar som vi inte sett \u00e4nnu. Sen rinner det in ett trettiotal stridsvagnar eller stridsfordon \u00e5t g\u00e5ngen med j\u00e4mna intervaller. Det \u00e4r inte hundratals men det toppar upp f\u00f6rlusterna.
\nRedan idag har man s\u00e5 mycket splitterskydd att hemv\u00e4rnet k\u00f6r runt i BMP-1 och ptgb till viss del.<\/p>\n

David D \u00e4r positiv-positiv har jag t\u00e4nkt l\u00e4nge och t\u00e4nker som vissa i tr\u00e5den kring olika situationer. Jag tycker ocks\u00e5 han g\u00f6r sin heml\u00e4xa varje g\u00e5ng och backar upp det med h\u00e5rda siffror.
\nSen har han en v\u00e4ggkarta d\u00e4r han flyttar brigaderna manuellt \u2013 sv\u00e5rt att inte gilla honom.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1725891906582774195?s=46&t=kXF_fnyjjBXxXczsKQ7WyA<\/a><\/p>\n

Ammunitionen fr\u00e5n NK var precis s\u00e5 d\u00e5lig som man misst\u00e4nkte.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/tendar\/status\/1725821663273472476?s=46&t=VBQr7aJs9jIUxhPUb_WwqA<\/a><\/p>\n

Ryssarna har \u00e5terigen aktiverat flyktingstr\u00f6mmar. Det \u00e4r v\u00e4l numera vedertaget att dom hade ett inte s\u00e5 litet finger med i detta sedan 2015?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1725917812697293232?s=46&t=kXF_fnyjjBXxXczsKQ7WyA<\/a><\/p>\n

Sen har dom nu aktiverat h\u00f6gergrupperna s\u00e5 livat fram\u00f6ver i v\u00e4st.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/efischberger\/status\/1725954243310280794?s=46&t=kXF_fnyjjBXxXczsKQ7WyA<\/a><\/p>\n

Det r\u00f6r p\u00e5 sig vid Dnepr och RU \u00e4r of\u00f6rm\u00f6gna att hantera detta, om dom backat 3km-8km redan s\u00e5 har UA sitt brohuvud och kan b\u00f6rja f\u00f6ra \u00f6ver tyngre vapen vilket \u00e4r mycket bra.
\nSen \u00e4r ju detta bara en del i den stora f\u00e4ltt\u00e5gsplanen skall man inte gl\u00f6mma f\u00f6r dom som minns den.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:26 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

\ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:49 \u2013 Johan No.1 Vi fick ju veta h\u00e4romsistens att Ukraina f\u00f6rlorat 70 000st d\u00f6da var det v\u00e4l och det 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