{"id":8406,"date":"2023-11-21T10:12:42","date_gmt":"2023-11-21T09:12:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-11-21\/"},"modified":"2023-11-21T10:12:42","modified_gmt":"2023-11-21T09:12:42","slug":"2023-11-21","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-11-21\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-11-21"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>10:39 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>Ett twitterrykte som b\u00e4st s\u00e5 f\u00f6r tidigt att hugga p\u00e5 det men m\u00f6jligt att strategiska reserver nu \u00e4r p\u00e5 v\u00e4g till s\u00f6dra fronten eller Dneprfronten. \u00c4r dom p\u00e5 v\u00e4g till Dneprfronten b\u00f6rjar den d\u00e4r retr\u00e4tten bortom artilleriavst\u00e5nd se rimligare ut, man bef\u00e4ster med dessa nya f\u00f6rband f\u00f6rst innan man drar ur befintliga barbarer vid Dnepr.<\/p>\n<p>Storlek, skick, utrustning \u00e4r helt ok\u00e4nt s\u00e5 vi f\u00e5r avvakta men om ni minns s\u00e5 var det h\u00e4r en av dom viktigaste puckarna att h\u00e5lla \u00f6gonen p\u00e5 n\u00e4r det g\u00e4llde v\u00e5roffensiven. Den andra var om UA fick slut p\u00e5 gas. F\u00f6rlusterna \u00e4r inte slut p\u00e5 gas, dom \u00e4r bara nere p\u00e5 h\u00f6ga niv\u00e5er efter vansinniga niv\u00e5er pga. RU anfall.<br \/>\nDet som allts\u00e5 st\u00e5r ut \u00e4r ny beteckning.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpr\/status\/1726688049071796365?s=46&amp;t=Waiql5HCJJcl2XsErBsrjA\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpr\/status\/1726688049071796365?s=46&amp;t=Waiql5HCJJcl2XsErBsrjA<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Har ocks\u00e5 funderat p\u00e5 att det nu \u00e4r de UA f\u00f6rband som tr\u00e4nats och utrustats av v\u00e4st som strider \u2013 den offensiva reserven. Dom \u00e4r och var sannolikt skyh\u00f6gt motiverade.<br \/>\nDet som kommer efter b\u00f6r vara mindre motiverade och ett l\u00e5ngt krig \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 en faktor f\u00f6r Ukraina \u2013 v\u00e4st spelar alldeles f\u00f6r h\u00f6g risk med detta och b\u00f6r snarast t\u00e4nka om, speciellt nu n\u00e4r det finns kopplingar RU-H\u2026as s\u00e5 har ett par till diplomatiska och politiska l\u00e5s rimligen \u00f6ppnats?<\/p>\n<p>Vill ni f\u00e5 h\u00f6gt blodtryck titta p\u00e5 denna bild, kanske 200st Bradleys som v\u00e4ntar p\u00e5 att destrueras, USA har ett och annat att f\u00f6rklara och jag tror att den ryska p\u00e5verkansoperationen varit lyckad s\u00e5 R sl\u00e5r helt bakut f\u00f6r allt. Det \u00e4r ju billigare att skicka dessa fordon till Ukraina \u00e4n att destruera dom \ud83e\udd2c<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1726487241714004319?s=46&amp;t=Waiql5HCJJcl2XsErBsrjA\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1726487241714004319?s=46&amp;t=Waiql5HCJJcl2XsErBsrjA<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Inf\u00f6r denna offensiv hade v\u00e4st utan att s\u00e4nka sin egen f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga kunnat utrusta Ukraina med hundratals MBT och vad\u00e5, 1500st IFV \u2013 nu valde v\u00e4st att inte g\u00f6ra det och det \u00e4r ett aktivt val dom gjort. Ukraina fick inte det dom hade p\u00e5 \u00f6nskelistan och g\u00f6r s\u00e5 gott dom kan med det dom har.<\/p>\n<p>Fr\u00e5n Erik14 f\u00f6rrg\u00e5r citerandes Schneider:<br \/>\nV\u00e4nstra stranden av Dnepr. AFU forts\u00e4tter att ut\u00f6ka sina brohuvuden. Kontrollzonen \u00e4r f\u00f6r n\u00e4rvarande t\u00e4nkt att vara cirka 9 km l\u00e5ng och n\u00e4stan 4 km djup, med den gr\u00e5 zonen \u00e4nnu st\u00f6rre. Det s\u00e4gs finnas omkring 300 ukrainska soldater i Krynky med omnejd.<br \/>\nDetta l\u00e5ter rimligt tycker jag, tror att det r\u00f6rdes ihop lite i spr\u00e5khoppen och blev 3-8km djupt.<\/p>\n<p>Sen fick vi tv\u00e5 bitar information, en nyligen uppk\u00f6rd reserv 328th flydde sina positioner och hos 144th  var det en pluton som kapitulerade.<br \/>\nDe ryska f\u00f6rlusterna vid Dnepr \u00e4r enligt UA 3500st d\u00f6da och s\u00e5rade samt \u201ddussintals\u201d med utslaget pansar blandad kompott sedan denna runda offensiv drog ig\u00e5ng.<br \/>\nOm vi bet\u00e4nker att UA g\u00e5tt \u00f6ver Dnepr med mestadels l\u00e4tt skytte i f\u00f6rst plutons, sen kompanis och nu kanske bataljons storlek s\u00e5 \u00e4r de ryska f\u00f6rlusterna ganska sensationella eller hur?<br \/>\nUkraina anv\u00e4nder hela paletten med indirekta f\u00f6rm\u00e5gor samt indirekt eld fr\u00e5n stridsvagn \u00f6ver Dnepr f\u00f6r att orsaka f\u00f6r\u00f6delse bland ryssarna.<\/p>\n<p>Dom g\u00e5r \u00f6ver med mindre enheter som f\u00f6rst tar en d\u00e5lig f\u00f6rsvarad position och sen g\u00e5r i f\u00f6rsvar.<br \/>\nS\u00e5 fort RU b\u00f6rjar banda upp insatsstyrkan p\u00e5 landsv\u00e4g uts\u00e4tts den f\u00f6r f\u00f6r\u00f6delse \u00e4nda tills den upph\u00f6r att existera n\u00e5gonstans framf\u00f6r f\u00f6rsvaret, ej s\u00e4llan har dom inte ens kommit inom skotth\u00e5ll.<br \/>\nOm Ukraina hade tagit 5ggr de ryska f\u00f6rlusterna hade denna offensiv varit \u00f6ver redan s\u00e5 det har dom inte gjort. Hela Marink\u00e5ren \u00e4r 8000st stark och vore den utpl\u00e5nad hade Ukraina kastat in handduken.<br \/>\nDet \u00e4r exakt det h\u00e4r vi s\u00e5g vid Kliischivka g\u00e5ng efter g\u00e5ng hur en grupp eller pluton slog ut pluton i f\u00f6rsvar mot n\u00e5gra s\u00e5rade.<\/p>\n<p>Det \u00e4r d\u00e4rf\u00f6r RU tar 5ggr f\u00f6rlusterna hela tiden och deras enda spel \u00e4r att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka h\u00e5lla j\u00e4mna steg med reserver, att ers\u00e4tta de som d\u00f6r.<br \/>\nVid Avdiivka, Vuhledar och Bakhmut tar RU astronomiskt h\u00f6gre f\u00f6rluster \u00e4n UA, 1:9 s\u00e4ger vissa.<br \/>\nN\u00e4r myten om att \u201dhuman wave\u201d (l\u00e5ter p\u00e5 n\u00e5t s\u00e4tt b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n k\u00f6ttmur) vinner krig skall d\u00f6 \u00e4r ju sv\u00e5rt att sia om men vinner kriget g\u00f6r RU inte.<br \/>\n-dom \u00e4r helt of\u00f6rm\u00f6gna att \u00e5stadkomma n\u00e5got med offensiva operationer.<br \/>\n-dom \u00e4r of\u00f6rm\u00f6gna att h\u00e5lla Dneprfronten.<br \/>\nDen ryska p\u00e5verkansoperationen att Ukraina h\u00e5ller p\u00e5 att f\u00f6rlora kommer helt d\u00f6 ut vid den st\u00f6rre retr\u00e4tten fr\u00e5n Dnepr.<\/p>\n<p>F\u00f6r hur kan Ukraina vara p\u00e5 v\u00e4g att f\u00f6rlora n\u00e4r ryssarna retirerar.<br \/>\nDet \u00e4r v\u00e4l d\u00e4rf\u00f6r det \u00e4r b\u00e4ttre att g\u00e5 all-in \u00e4n att riskera ett genombrott med efterf\u00f6ljande vild flykt.<br \/>\nOm man f\u00e5r extrapolera lite l\u00e4ngre \u00e4n vanligt s\u00e5 skulle det ju kunna vara brytpunkten ryssarna \u00e4r livr\u00e4dda f\u00f6r \u2013 att s\u00f6dra fronten kollapsar.<br \/>\nD\u00e5 v\u00e4nder sig Ryssland in\u00e5t, vem vet\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Nu kommer v\u00e4dereffekten ocks\u00e5 med ett brak \u2013 UA har i alla fall intention att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka utrusta soldaterna s\u00e5 bra dom kan.<br \/>\nJag s\u00e4tter mina sista slantar i \u00e5r p\u00e5 att dom d\u00e4r tusentals-f\u00f6rbanden (1000th) i bataljonsstorlek inte kommer med tillr\u00e4ckligt med regnkl\u00e4der eller vinterkl\u00e4der och f\u00f6rbanden som funnits p\u00e5 plats sedan i v\u00e5ras har v\u00e4l ingenting kan man gissa?<br \/>\nDet \u00e4r RU som ligger och guppar i de vattenfyllda v\u00e4rnen och har en simbass\u00e4ng i det f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkta v\u00e4rnet.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1726719196476969050?s=46&amp;t=-4ZE-y0YUKeE35Ym4g6w6g\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1726719196476969050?s=46&amp;t=-4ZE-y0YUKeE35Ym4g6w6g<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Alla som blivit genomsura vet hur stridsv\u00e4rdet sjunker p\u00e5 n\u00e5gra timmar och det h\u00e4r kommer sl\u00e5 mot ryssarna o\u00e4ndligt mer \u00e4n mot UA. Men kul \u00e4r det inte f\u00f6r UA.<br \/>\nDneprfronten saknar ocks\u00e5 st\u00f6rre st\u00e4der s\u00e5 det kan nog vara r\u00e4tt spartanskt p\u00e5 sina h\u00e5ll.<\/p>\n<p>Aningen OT men Bahrain har g\u00e5tt ut och f\u00f6rd\u00f6mt H\u2026as h\u00e5rt.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nadav_markman\/status\/1726167783048901115?s=46&amp;t=RW0lnQApk72iPFpdwRM4kA\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nadav_markman\/status\/1726167783048901115?s=46&amp;t=RW0lnQApk72iPFpdwRM4kA<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Samtidigt som det b\u00f6rjar bli GLASKLART att H..as byggt sin milit\u00e4ra infrastruktur under civil infrastruktur som sk\u00f6tts av RK, l\u00e4kare utan gr\u00e4nser, FN och s\u00e5 vidare. Allt har varit k\u00e4nt och dessa organisationer har inte slagit larm. Som exempel visste alla v\u00e4stlig sjukv\u00e5rdspersonal att man inte fick g\u00e5 ned p\u00e5 k\u00e4llarplanet i sjukhuset f\u00f6r H\u2026as.  Jag f\u00f6rst\u00e5r att det h\u00e4r \u00e4r i sin linda fortfarande men en st\u00f6rre skandal \u00e4n s\u00e5 h\u00e4r \u00e4r n\u00e4stan sv\u00e5rt att hitta. Dessa organisationer har helt f\u00f6rr\u00e5tt de civila i G\u2026a till f\u00f6rm\u00e5n f\u00f6r en kriminell klan som snott alla bist\u00e5ndsmedlen f\u00f6r att bygga upp sin milit\u00e4ra infrastruktur. Att media skulle f\u00e4lla ut klorna och ta tag i det h\u00e4r f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar jag mig inte f\u00f6r det skulle krascha narrativet jag v\u00e4xt upp med s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge jag kan minnas.<\/p>\n<p>Bara som exempel gick ju Amnesty ut och f\u00f6rd\u00f6mde UA f\u00f6r att ha satt upp f\u00f6rl\u00e4ggningar i tomma skolor, var \u00e4r deras svavelosande kritik \u00f6ver bunkrar under \u00f6ppna sjukhus?<br \/>\nV\u00e4rlden \u00e4r inte r\u00e4ttvis men dom h\u00e4r organisationerna har kantrat totalt och dom drivs av skattemedel och donationer s\u00e5 vissa krav b\u00f6r man v\u00e4l kunna st\u00e4lla?<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hillelneuer\/status\/1726340749791232026?s=46&amp;t=6RR12xZmoHMoS3tjyVdg-g\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/hillelneuer\/status\/1726340749791232026?s=46&amp;t=6RR12xZmoHMoS3tjyVdg-g<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/drelidavid\/status\/1726626835117805689?s=46&amp;t=-4ZE-y0YUKeE35Ym4g6w6g\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/drelidavid\/status\/1726626835117805689?s=46&amp;t=-4ZE-y0YUKeE35Ym4g6w6g<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Eller den h\u00e4r, Guterrez deklarerar att G\u2026a \u00e4r den blodigaste konflikten f\u00f6r civila i modern tid \u2013 utan att p\u00e5 n\u00e5got s\u00e4tt f\u00f6rminska att det just nu d\u00f6r tusentals civila d\u00e4r s\u00e5 lyckas FN f\u00f6rminska kriget i Ukraina d\u00e4r det finns goda sk\u00e4l att misst\u00e4nka hundratusentals d\u00f6da i Mariupolomr\u00e5det och dom funderar \u00f6ver texten p\u00e5 protestnoten fortfarande.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ratlpolicy\/status\/1726709306727539053?s=46&amp;t=-4ZE-y0YUKeE35Ym4g6w6g\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/ratlpolicy\/status\/1726709306727539053?s=46&amp;t=-4ZE-y0YUKeE35Ym4g6w6g<\/a><\/p>\n<p>De kinesiska goflbilarna har n\u00e5tt fronten och det g\u00e5r s\u00e5d\u00e4r.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1726704863781007389?s=46&amp;t=-4ZE-y0YUKeE35Ym4g6w6g\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1726704863781007389?s=46&amp;t=-4ZE-y0YUKeE35Ym4g6w6g<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Man skall inte underskatta det som spelar ut nu p\u00e5 alla fronter \u2013 vi f\u00e5r snart se vilka reserver som tillf\u00f6rts s\u00f6dra fronten, om n\u00e5gra alls, och v\u00e4dret kommer g\u00e5 mycket h\u00e5rt \u00e5t RU i f\u00f6rsvar.<br \/>\nJust nu \u00e4r det bl\u00f6tt och runt nollan vilket \u00e4r v\u00e4rst s\u00e5 RU f\u00f6rbands stridsv\u00e4rde kommer st\u00f6rtdyka och sen precis som f\u00f6rra vintern skenar ej stridsrelaterade skador till 30% eller n\u00e5t ovanp\u00e5 de f\u00f6rluster vi l\u00e4ser om.<\/p>\n<p>Att eskaleringen uteblev i MENA f\u00f6r RU \u00e4r en stor missber\u00e4kning f\u00f6r RU och f\u00f6r mig ser det ut som dom spelat ett av sina b\u00e4sta kort och misslyckats.<\/p>\n<p>Man \u00e4r fortsatt helt galen p\u00e5 att v\u00e4st inte skickar mer \u2013 finns inget att skicka s\u00e4ger alltid en del men det r\u00e4cker ju att titta p\u00e5 bilden f\u00f6r USAs destrutionsprogram vid en dep\u00e5 f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rst\u00e5 att det finns hur mycket som helst att skicka \ud83e\udd2c<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>11:51 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n<p>Tack!  \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<p>Lite r\u00e4dd att v\u00e4dret kommer att st\u00e4lla till det mer f\u00f6r Ukraina \u00e4n f\u00f6r ryssarna just vid Dnepr. Det \u00e4r mer sumpmark n\u00e4rmare floden och det  riskerar att g\u00f6ra f\u00f6rh\u00e5llandena \u00e4nnu j\u00e4vligare. F\u00f6rhoppningsvis har man kommit in s\u00e5 pass l\u00e5ngt \u00e4nd\u00e5 p\u00e5 djupet.<\/p>\n<p>Tycker annars att det \u00e4r lite intressant att det r\u00f6rt p\u00e5 sig vid Horlivka. Inte mycket och kanske inte seri\u00f6st menat men blir intressant att se.<\/p>\n<p>Ja, man blir bra tr\u00f6tt p\u00e5 v\u00e4st som inte verkar ta det h\u00e4r p\u00e5 riktigt allvar.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-2\">\n<h4>13:26 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n<p>Ja herregud nu \u00e4r det problem med f\u00f6rs\u00f6rjningen \u00f6verallt det \u00e4r klart.<br \/>\nDock s\u00e5 har v\u00e4l Ukraina kortare f\u00f6rs\u00f6rjningsv\u00e4gar och det \u00e4r dom som klustrar och dr\u00f6nar bort ryssarnas bakre och inte tv\u00e4rtom?<br \/>\nMen jo, Dnepr blir nog sankt fram\u00f6ver.<\/p>\n<p>Har du sett att dom lagt tv\u00e5 pontonbroar \u00f6ver den mindre floden redan Konka redan?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-3\">\n<h5>14:20 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n<p>Ja, generellt har de absolut en stor f\u00f6rdel n\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller logistiken j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med Ryssland.<br \/>\nKanske tom. \u00e4r s\u00e5, med det h\u00e4r v\u00e4dret, att det \u00e4r b\u00e4ttre att frakta med b\u00e5t \u00f6ver floden \u00e4n via fordon \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<p>Ja, s\u00e5g att de hade ett par broar p\u00e5 plats. F\u00e5r de ligga kvar st\u00e5r det nog inte p\u00e5 innan de v\u00e5gar bygga broar eller i alla fall k\u00f6ra f\u00e4rja \u00f6ver sj\u00e4lva Dnepr.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>10:39 \u2013 Johan No.1 Ett twitterrykte som b\u00e4st s\u00e5 f\u00f6r tidigt att hugga p\u00e5 det men m\u00f6jligt att strategiska reserver [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8406","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraina","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - 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