{"id":8695,"date":"2024-01-24T09:37:53","date_gmt":"2024-01-24T08:37:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-01-24\/"},"modified":"2024-01-24T09:37:53","modified_gmt":"2024-01-24T08:37:53","slug":"2024-01-24","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2024-01-24\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-01-24"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:17 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The price of freedom.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/mykhailorohoza\/status\/1749254921373835266?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00c5ter till manglad ryss, avstickare som ig\u00e5r \u00e4r lite knepiga eftersom det f\u00f6r mig \u00e4r sj\u00e4lvklart som bott s\u00e5 m\u00e5nga \u00e5r p\u00e5 plats och sett det med egna \u00f6gon d\u00e5 vi jobbat ganska h\u00f6gt upp i samh\u00e4llet men d\u00e4r Sverige inte riktigt har kommit i kapp \u00e4nnu och det kanske l\u00e5ter kontroversiellt men jag v\u00e5gar mig tillbaka i dag igen.<\/p>\n

Jag sitter och funderar p\u00e5 vad Ryssland kommer g\u00f6ra globalt med eller utan proxys nu n\u00e4r robotregnet skjuts ned och ukrainas bombmattor i Ryssland inte skjuts ned.
\nTyv\u00e4rr \u00e4r v\u00e4l Enerhodar en alldeles f\u00f6r bra kandidat att f\u00e5 ett sv\u00e5rare tekniskt fel \ud83d\ude10
\nMENA terrorister som genomf\u00f6r spektakul\u00e4ra attentat i EU likas\u00e5, dom finns det gott om efter USAs h\u00e4rjningar i omr\u00e5det \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

Demonstrationerna har jag helt sl\u00e4ppt nu f\u00f6r v\u00e4sts politiker verkar kunna v\u00e4rja sig mot dom men dom fortg\u00e5r i of\u00f6rminskad styrka.
\nR\u00e4tt kul med alla filmer p\u00e5 pro-I\u2026el demonstranter som f\u00e5r fr\u00e5gan \u2013 \u201dwhat river and what sea\u201d och n\u00e4stan undantagsl\u00f6st har dom inte den blekaste. Nu v\u00e4ljer v\u00e4l personen med kameran ut de som ser ut att inte ha koll men \u00e4nd\u00e5 p\u00e5tagligt hur d\u00e5ligt p\u00e5l\u00e4sta dom \u00e4r trots att dom st\u00e5r och demonstrerar.<\/p>\n

Vi i tr\u00e5den kan ju vid det h\u00e4r laget varenda ort i Ukraina med mer \u00e4n tusen inv\u00e5nare och om den ligger p\u00e5 dominerande h\u00f6jd eller inte s\u00e5 viss arrogans att brinna f\u00f6r n\u00e5got utan att ha l\u00e4rt sig det mest fundamentala som var landet ligger.<\/p>\n

Nu kommer f\u00f6r \u00f6vrigt ammunitionen till 155mm, v\u00e4sts smedjor har s\u00e5 sakteliga b\u00f6rjat gl\u00f6dgas och enligt tidigare skall man inte titta p\u00e5 f\u00f6rra \u00e5rets tillverkningssiffror, dom skalar upp betydligt snabbare \u00e4n s\u00e5.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kjneeen2lq2d<\/a><\/p>\n

S\u00e5 h\u00e4r g\u00e5r det \u2013 v\u00e4st kan m\u00f6ta \u201daxis of evil\u201d som skalat upp till krigsekonomi med sin fredsproduktion fortfarande i varje global konflikt sedan l\u00e5ng tid tillbaka men det ser lite skakigt ut.
\nSen tar det alldeles f\u00f6r l\u00e4nge f\u00f6r demokratierna att acceptera att t\u00e4rningen \u00e4r kastad \u2013 varje krig \u00e4r det s\u00e5 och skurkstaten som f\u00e5tt feeling ligger l\u00e5ngt f\u00f6re i planeringen.<\/p>\n

En krigsekonomi har alltid ett slutdatum och en fredsekonomi \u00e4r o\u00e4ndlig eller hur.
\n\u00d6ver en tid skalar s\u00e5 v\u00e4st upp sin vapenproduktion s\u00e5 att det blir en win och skurkstaterna f\u00f6rlorar spektakul\u00e4rt.
\nSen kommer massa nya f\u00f6rslag till evig fred och demokratierna forts\u00e4tter rusta i 30-40 \u00e5r till eller s\u00e5 innan dom s\u00e5 sakteliga b\u00f6rjar k\u00e4nna att v\u00e4rlden \u00e4r en fridfull plats.
\nRinse and repeat.<\/p>\n

NATO har inte varit s\u00e5 dumt dock och EU b\u00f6rjar v\u00e4l s\u00e5 sm\u00e5tt forma sig till n\u00e5got man inte hoppar p\u00e5 helt utan konsekvenser s\u00e5 det g\u00e5r fram\u00e5t.
\nDemokratierna har f\u00f6r l\u00e4nge sedan l\u00e4rt sig att krig inte \u00e4r bra f\u00f6r business men n\u00e4r det kr\u00e4vs l\u00f6ser dom uppgiften \u2013 s\u00e5 ocks\u00e5 i denna g\u00e5ng men senf\u00e4rdigheten betalar Ukraina f\u00f6r med valutan m\u00e4nniskoliv.<\/p>\n

Det finns fortfarande en rimlig chans att Ryssland f\u00e5r stryk och v\u00e5r tids stora globala konflikt slutade med Ukrainakriget + lite sm\u00e5krafs.
\nDock skall man ha klart f\u00f6r sig att lyckas Ryssland forts\u00e4tta s\u00e5 finns det en ambiti\u00f6s plan som inkluderar Kina men dom avvaktar tills vidare ser det ut som.<\/p>\n

V\u00e4sts vapenst\u00f6d st\u00e5r emellan de b\u00e5da alternativen.<\/p>\n

Nu vet vi att GUR saboterat 3st TU22M bombare f\u00f6r dom har ber\u00e4ttat det f\u00f6r oss sj\u00e4lva. Dom har absolut g\u00e5tt efter det strategiska bombflyget, r\u00e4tt s\u00e4ker p\u00e5 att n\u00e5gra TU95 utsatts ocks\u00e5.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kjpf5gaqfl2b<\/a><\/p>\n

Det var en stor r\u00e4dsla som spred sig nyligen n\u00e4r Ukraina gick ned fr\u00e5n att avfyra 7000st artillerigranater till 2000st per dag och ryssarna gick fr\u00e5n 6000st till 10 000st per dag.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6r en kortare period sk\u00f6t Ukraina mer artillerigranater per dag och vi gladdes \u00e5t att v\u00e4st \u00e4ntligen tagit sig samman men det var kortvarigt f\u00f6r den o\u00f6nskade sonen upph\u00f6r- tydligen aldrig att g\u00f6ra oss besvikna.<\/p>\n

Dom d\u00e4r 3 miljonerna klustergranater som skall skrotas i USA kommer ju aldrig i stor m\u00e4ngd och ATACMS, dom d\u00e4r riktigt roliga, blev det bara 20st av men herregud vilken utdelning det blev.<\/p>\n

S\u00e5g fr\u00e5n Grankovich nu p\u00e5 morgonen att Ryssland i b\u00f6rjan sk\u00f6t 63 000st granater per dag mot Ukraina.
\nUA har allts\u00e5 reducerat ryskt artilleri med \u00f6ver 80% mot toppen.<\/p>\n

Vi fick veta f\u00f6rut att det reducerats med 70% men nu har vi v\u00e4l siffrorna att j\u00e4mf\u00f6ra med \u2013 har skrivits i tr\u00e5den tidigare.<\/p>\n

Eftersom Ukraina tog 70% av sina f\u00f6rluster fr\u00e5n artilleriet b\u00f6r deras f\u00f6rluster ha g\u00e5tt ned rej\u00e4lt rimligen t\u00e4nker jag.<\/p>\n

Inget pris f\u00f6r att gissa att kampanjen att sl\u00e5 ut ammunitionsf\u00f6rr\u00e5d och eldr\u00f6r har haft avsedd effekt.
\nDet h\u00e4r \u00e4r h\u00e5rda siffror och med ryska artillerif\u00f6rluster p\u00e5 senare tid tror jag inte dom kommer komma speciellt l\u00e5ngt \u00f6ver 10 000st granater per dag igen \u2013 om inte det \u00e4r en bedrift av Ukraina vet jag inte vad som \u00e4r det.<\/p>\n

N\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller T72 f\u00f6rluster s\u00e5 har mod 2022 \u00f6kat kraftigt p\u00e5 senare tid \u2013 i den st\u00e4ndiga diskussionen om att dom offrar \u00e4ldre vagnar vilket dom inte g\u00f6r\ud83d\ude00
\nT90 och T80 har v\u00e4l dessutom g\u00e5tt upp och T62 ned.
\nSen var ju i det stora robotregnet en del robotar med komponenter tillverkade September 2023.
\nRyssland f\u00e4rdigst\u00e4ller allt dom kan och skickar till Ukraina \u00e4r min \u00e5sikt.<\/p>\n

H\u00e4r \u00e4r Armenska frivilligbataljonen. \u00c4ven om international legion g\u00e5tt ned rej\u00e4lt s\u00e5 har etniska f\u00f6rband av ryssar eller gamla sovjetrepubliker g\u00e5tt upp mycket mer. Enligt uppgift var det ju tiotusentals rysssar p\u00e5 k\u00f6 f\u00f6r att g\u00e5 med i f\u00f6rbanden men dom m\u00e5ste f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka r\u00f6ka ut FSB agenterna f\u00f6rst \ud83d\ude00
\n\u00c4ven \u201dsibirierna\u201d har nu en frivillig bataljon.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/gloooud\/status\/1737543874438926842?s=46&t=VD6dofXUF4336vctuixuoQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Det har flugit runt en siffra att RU har 74 000st i Kherson, jag \u00e4r r\u00e4tt \u00f6vertygad om att det \u00e4r antalet brigader X fulltaliga vilket l\u00e4get p\u00e5 marken absolut inte \u00e4r men sen inkluderar det ocks\u00e5 tross, dep\u00e5arbetare, artilleri och bakre funktioner.
\nSpetsen \u00e4r nog r\u00e4tt utarmad vid Kherson och redo f\u00f6r att k\u00f6ras \u00f6ver.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/PStyle0ne1\/status\/1738828399781543937?t=2qwov4WToe_pETQ_S6JAHA&s=19<\/a><\/p>\n

VI f\u00e5r forts\u00e4tta att gl\u00e4djas \u00e5t misslyckade ryska offensiver \u2013 vid Avdiivka kommer det rimligen bli ett liknande blodbad som i Bakhmut och i norra Luhansk \u00e4r hela v\u00e4sts SOF en kraftigt d\u00e4mpande effekt nu ocks\u00e5 med ATESH och andra partisaner.<\/p>\n

Vi gl\u00e4ds ocks\u00e5 \u00e5t operation sl\u00e4cka lyset samt att Ukraina blivit milj\u00f6v\u00e4nliga och tar itu med oljeberoendet.
\nV\u00e4ntans tider p\u00e5 offensiva operationer fr\u00e5n UA.<\/p>\n

Vi skulle h\u00e5lla \u00f6gonen p\u00e5 tv\u00e5 saker \u2013 rysk mobilisering och att UA f\u00e5r slut p\u00e5 gas och b\u00f6rjar backa. Jag tycker inte vi ser n\u00e5got av dessa tv\u00e5 s\u00e5 positiv-positiv kvarst\u00e5r.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:35 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Tack! \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:17 \u2013 Johan No.1 The price of freedom. https:\/\/x.com\/mykhailorohoza\/status\/1749254921373835266?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w \u00c5ter till manglad ryss, avstickare som ig\u00e5r \u00e4r lite knepiga eftersom 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