{"id":8776,"date":"2024-02-13T09:28:18","date_gmt":"2024-02-13T08:28:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-02-13\/"},"modified":"2024-02-13T09:28:18","modified_gmt":"2024-02-13T08:28:18","slug":"2024-02-13","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2024-02-13\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-02-13"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Om vi b\u00f6rjar med lite positiva twitterrykten s\u00e5 h\u00e4r p\u00e5 morgonen, som vi inte kan hugga fullt ut p\u00e5 \u00e4nnu \u2013 vi har ju diskuterat att vi kan sl\u00e5 i gongongen f\u00f6r Avdiivka n\u00e4r motanfallen spelar ut men att det inte ser ljust ut (baserat p\u00e5 stora negativa f\u00f6r\u00e4ndringar hos Deepstate) och att enda sansade motanfallet skulle vara uppe vid Krasnohorivka med mekanfall.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6r det f\u00f6rsta var det inga f\u00f6r\u00e4ndringar i Avdiivka hos Deepstatemap under g\u00e5rdagen och det har r\u00f6rt p\u00e5 sig dagligen under en vecka \u2013 det \u00e4r positivt.<\/p>\n

Det ryktas nu att Ukraina f\u00f6rt fram offensiva reserver i norr vilket signalerar vilja att stabilisera situationen i Avdiivka. Det ryktas ocks\u00e5 att politiken har den viljan.<\/p>\n

Det ryktas ocks\u00e5 att Ukraina sl\u00e4pper p\u00e5 ammunitionen igen f\u00f6r att dom \u00e4r s\u00e4kra p\u00e5 att st\u00f6dpaketet fr\u00e5n USA kommer g\u00e5 igenom \u2013 detta betyder naturligtvis snabb d\u00f6d f\u00f6r ryss i grop i Avdiivka n\u00e4r eldr\u00f6ren gasar upp.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6r det f\u00f6rsta f\u00f6rst\u00e4rker det v\u00e4l tr\u00e5dens antagande att Ukraina har offensiva reserver kvar eller hur?<\/p>\n

Det andra \u00e4r att vi kommer r\u00e4tt snart f\u00e5 se ett av tv\u00e5 utfall \u2013 Ukraina genomf\u00f6r sin offensiv med resultat att den ryska framst\u00f6ten trycks tillbaka och d\u00e5 har RU en ny v\u00e4lutrustad CAA i omr\u00e5det tillsammans med de vanliga offerlammen och det \u00e4r Ukraina som \u00e4r reaktiva \u2013 det kommer ge oss en bra bild av hur pass \u00f6verl\u00e4gsna Ukraina \u00e4r h\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Andra utfallet \u00e4r v\u00e4l att dom inte lyckas men det \u00e4r inte kul att diskutera \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

N\u00e4stkommande vecka kring Avdiivka kommer tala om f\u00f6r oss vart det h\u00e4r kriget \u00e4r p\u00e5 v\u00e4g.<\/p>\n

Sen har vi Gazpromnefts raffinaderi i l\u00e5gor, jag \u00e5terkommer l\u00e4ngre ned varf\u00f6r det \u00e4r signifikant.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ruinwanderer\/status\/1757208561447207259?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Vi har nog en f\u00f6rklaring till varf\u00f6r det g\u00e5tt fram\u00e5t f\u00f6r ryssarna \u2013 SOF och VDV i Avdiivka. Har inte n\u00e4mnts f\u00f6rut och ser inga p\u00e5 f\u00f6rbandskartorna. Fr\u00e5gan st\u00e4lldes v\u00e4l i tr\u00e5den f\u00f6r ett tag sedan utan svar men Pravda skall v\u00e4l vara p\u00e5litliga. RU har n\u00e4mligen alltid poolat in sina b\u00e4ttre f\u00f6rm\u00e5gor till platser dom vill ha genombrott p\u00e5.
\nhttps:\/\/www.pravda.com.ua\/eng\/news\/2024\/02\/12\/7441494\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Idag \u00e4ndrades allt (igen) n\u00e4r Gazpromneft raffinaderi brann upp s\u00e5 nedan \u00e4r hur dysterkvistarna ser p\u00e5 livet i st\u00f6rsta allm\u00e4nhet nu n\u00e4r jag g\u00e4stspelat d\u00e4r i n\u00e5gra dagar \u2013 det var tyst f\u00f6r l\u00e4nge kring spektakul\u00e4ra befrielsed\u00e5d i Ryssland och i mina \u00f6gonblick av dysterkvisteri funderade jag p\u00e5 om det var d\u00e4rf\u00f6r Zelensky s\u00e5g s\u00e5 nerv\u00f6s ut n\u00e4r han gav Budanov medaljen, och att det var d\u00e4rf\u00f6r Budanov fick medalj \u2013 Zelensky hade sagt \u00e5t honom p\u00e5 uppdrag av v\u00e4st att sluta befria Ryssland. hittills var det tv\u00e5 oljeterminaler eller raffinaderier i veckan och det finns m\u00e5nga kvar. Och n\u00e4r inget h\u00e4nder p\u00e5 ett bra tag bryter det m\u00f6nstret.<\/p>\n

Sen avbokade Macron sin kievresa, varf\u00f6r d\u00e5?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1756645988985430523?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Jag hade fortfarande sv\u00e5rt att ta in \u201dactive defense\u201d och om det var drivet av manskapsbrist, ammunitionsbrist eller politiskt motiverat. Klart var att Zalizhny ville ha resurser f\u00f6r stora offensiver och att han r\u00f6k.<\/p>\n

Budanovs sabot\u00f6r-sv\u00e4rm har naturligtvis inte slut p\u00e5 dr\u00f6nare eller vinggranater s\u00e5 h\u00f6r vi inget har det skett \u00e4ndringar rimligen.<\/p>\n

Tv\u00e4rtom s\u00e5 gick v\u00e4l deras IT minister precis ut och f\u00f6rklarade att dom har tusentals l\u00e5ngr\u00e4ckviddiga dr\u00f6nare som kan n\u00e5 Moskva och St Petersburg.
\nhttps:\/\/www.pravda.com.ua\/eng\/news\/2024\/02\/12\/7441488\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Nu skrev Viktor ig\u00e5r att TASS rapporterade att Tucker diskuterat med Putin off the record och att han var redo att f\u00f6rhandla. Det h\u00e4r var allts\u00e5 syftet med intervjun och det PerraG55 resonerade kring \u2013 nu kom det.<\/p>\n

Kopplar man ihop allt som en \u00e4kta dysterkvist alltid g\u00f6r har Biden v\u00e4grat skicka s\u00e5nt som kan skickas direkt med hans underskrift (skickar massa till Marocko ist\u00e4llet), EU lovar stort men skickar inget alls, Budanovs h\u00e4rjningar d\u00f6r ut, Zalizhny ryker, Zelensky utlovar \u201daktivt f\u00f6rsvar\u201d och TASS skriver att Putin vill f\u00f6rhandla.
\nOch man kan anta att v\u00e4st anv\u00e4nt leveranserna f\u00f6r att pressa Zelensky till att dels inte anfalla Ryssland och sen tvingas till f\u00f6rhandlingar.<\/p>\n

Men idag \u00e4ndrades allt \u2013 raffinaderi utslaget s\u00e5 Budanov k\u00f6r p\u00e5 och den nya ledningen visar en vilja att sm\u00e4lla p\u00e5 ryssarna i Avdiivka \u2013 dysterkvistarnas m\u00f6rka sorgliga v\u00e4rldsbild backade tillbaka inf\u00f6r ett ljusbl\u00e5tt skimmer underst\u00f6tt av lugnande hissmusik.<\/p>\n

Det enskilt st\u00f6rsta hotet som Ukraina st\u00e5r inf\u00f6r, och ocks\u00e5 d\u00e4rf\u00f6r jag har valt motsatt position hela h\u00f6sten n\u00e4r det kommit p\u00e5 tal att Ryssland \u00e4r ett stort hot, \u00e4r att v\u00e4st k\u00e4nner att Ryssland har framg\u00e5ngar p\u00e5 slagf\u00e4ltet och b\u00f6rjar se sig om i sina egna f\u00f6rr\u00e5d och k\u00e4nner att h\u00e4r beh\u00f6ver vi fylla p\u00e5 pronto f\u00f6r annars kan vi inte f\u00f6rsvara oss.
\nDet finns m\u00e5nga avl\u00f6nade proryssar kvar i v\u00e4st som inte r\u00f6kts ut \u00e4nnu och dom kommer i politiken b\u00f6rja driva linjen stenh\u00e5rt att vi m\u00e5ste rusta upp v\u00e5ra egna f\u00f6rsvar f\u00f6r landets b\u00e4sta.<\/p>\n

\u00d6B i hela europa \u00e4r redan oroade f\u00f6r dom anser att dom har f\u00f6r lite materiel f\u00f6r nationellt invasionsf\u00f6rsvar.
\nDom t\u00e4nker naturligtvis helt fel f\u00f6r det \u00e4r skalskyddet som \u00e4r det viktiga men dom har mycket att s\u00e4ga till om som experterna inom omr\u00e5det och dom har tydliga kravst\u00e4llningar och jobbeskrivningar.<\/p>\n

Lite f\u00f6renklat s\u00e5 har inget land resurssatt ett fullt uth\u00e5lligt invasionsf\u00f6rsvar men l\u00e4nderna p\u00e5 bekv\u00e4mt avst\u00e5nd fr\u00e5n skalskyddet beh\u00f6ver inget f\u00f6rsvar alls f\u00f6r kommer vi till punkten att Belgien och Portugal m\u00e5ste f\u00f6rsvara sig mot invasion \u00e4r det k\u00f6rt \u00e4nd\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Hela kriget har vi l\u00e4st hur Tjeckien k\u00f6per hundratals CV90, hur Polen dammsuger sydkorea p\u00e5 artilleri och stridsvagnar och hur ammunition fr\u00e5n nyproduktionen inte kommer till Ukraina f\u00f6r andras kontrakt prioriteras.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r d\u00e4rf\u00f6r jag varit oroad \u00f6ver Avdiivka, norra Luhansk, Krunky och vad mer \u2013 b\u00f6rjar ryssarna f\u00e5 upp visst momentum s\u00e5 blir det direkt samma reaktion som vid v\u00e5roffensiven fast omv\u00e4nt.
\nMedia sl\u00e5r upp domedagsartiklarna igen, alla \u00d6B i europa st\u00e5r gravallvarliga framf\u00f6r riksdagarna med sina bl\u00e4dderblock med materiel som m\u00e5ste k\u00f6pas nu och k\u00f6pta politiker b\u00f6rjar driva linjen stenh\u00e5rt.
\nDet kanske till och med blir valfr\u00e5gor av det.<\/p>\n

V\u00e4nta och se n\u00e4r svenska freds och vissa debatt\u00f6rer blir o\u00e4ndligt intresserade av ett starkt svenskt f\u00f6rsvar \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Sen finns det inget att skicka till Ukraina och det spelar ingen roll hur mycket som finns p\u00e5 kontot f\u00f6r inget finns att k\u00f6pa.<\/p>\n

Vi \u00e4r redan halvv\u00e4gs inne i det h\u00e4r men v\u00e4st valde att \u00f6ppna upp lite n\u00e4r v\u00e5roffensiven dinglades framf\u00f6r dom som en m\u00f6jlig krigsvinnare.
\nNu \u00e4r v\u00e4st stukade och det finns risk att allt spelar Ryssland rakt i h\u00e4nderna.<\/p>\n

Det b\u00e4sta som kunnat h\u00e4nda hade varit att Ukraina hade ammunition s\u00e5 denna runda RU offensiver slogs s\u00f6nder redan under uppmarschen som tidigare och sedan hade dom kunnat utannonsera sin egen offensiv eller klippt till mot svag punkt. Det var inte direkt ov\u00e4ntat att ryska arm\u00e9n skulle f\u00e5 en del press p\u00e5 sig s\u00e5 h\u00e4r innan presidentvalet.<\/p>\n

Underskatta inte risken ovan \u2013 det \u00e4r ett tillr\u00e4ckligt attraktivt syfte f\u00f6r de flesta politiker att g\u00e5 bort sig i.
\nL\u00e4gg p\u00e5 \u2013 \u201dvad h\u00e4nder om Ukraina f\u00f6rlorar all materiel eller f\u00f6rlorar kriget, d\u00e5 st\u00e5r vi d\u00e4r utan n\u00e5got alls sj\u00e4lva, oansvarigt\u201d.
\nSv\u00e5rt att argumentera emot n\u00e5t s\u00e5nt i riksdagen eller hur \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

Om Ukraina nu sl\u00e4pper p\u00e5 ammunitionen igen kommer det bli enorma f\u00f6rluster f\u00f6r ryssarna fram tills valet och RU har f\u00f6rt fram sina strategiska reserver vid Bakhmut, norra Luhansk, Avdiivka och s\u00f6dra fronten s\u00e5 det finns goda sk\u00e4l att anta att de ryska strategiska reserverna till stor del \u00e4r anv\u00e4nda nu.
\nInnan denna runda var runt 50% anv\u00e4nda.<\/p>\n

Ukrainas har kvar en st\u00f6rre offensiv reserv och f\u00e5r dom bara den f\u00f6rba@\u00a3ade (\ud83e\udd2c\ud83e\udd2c\ud83e\udd2c) ammunitionen n\u00e5n g\u00e5ng kan dom resurss\u00e4tta n\u00e4sta offensiv.<\/p>\n

Dom kommer visa att dom har offensiv f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga i Avdiivka nu men det visste ju tr\u00e5den redan eftersom som vi g\u00e5tt igenom det tidigare.<\/p>\n

Jag \u00e4r mer \u00e4n lovligt nyfiken p\u00e5 om n\u00e4r kongressen godk\u00e4nner st\u00f6dpaketet s\u00e5 \u00e4r allt redan lastat p\u00e5 transportflyg eller om det kommer en l\u00e5ng ledtid.<\/p>\n

St\u00e4mmer morgonens sk\u00f6rd av twitterrykten \u00e4r vi rakt tillbaka i positivt-positivt och motoffensiven vid Avdiivka \u00e4r en biggie \u00e4ven om omr\u00e5det som s\u00e5dant inte har n\u00e5gon avg\u00f6rande betydelse f\u00f6r det signalerar hur v\u00e4l UA stridsledning fungerar och skicket p\u00e5 f\u00f6rsvaret. Ett lackmustest helt enkelt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:09 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Tack! <\/p>\n

Avdijivka f\u00f6rvandlades precis till en riktig rysare nu n\u00e4r man valde att s\u00e4tta in f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar!<\/p>\n

Fint att du hittar tillbaka till det positiva!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:57 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

H\u00f6g tilltro till att veteranenheter som \u00e4r absoluta gudar p\u00e5 att rensa v\u00e4rn och kan sin mekstrid nu kommer sm\u00e4lla in i en ny CAA av nymobiliserade och k\u00f6ra \u00f6ver dom.<\/p>\n

F\u00e5r dom bara ammunition till indirekt eld och LV skall dom vara ostoppbara.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Titta p\u00e5 den h\u00e4r vackra eldbollen som en g\u00e5ng var ett raffinaderi i Moskva \ud83d\udca5\ud83d\ude00\ud83d\ude0e<\/p>\n

https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3klc42hemtz2g<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:07 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udd25\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:53 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Putin b\u00f6rjar panik-be om fred \ud83d\ude02\ud83d\ude02<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1757473318058197031?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:06 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83e\udd23 Nu har han nog tr\u00f6stsugit i sig de sista tuberna med Kalles.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:45 \u2013 Johan No.1 Om vi b\u00f6rjar med lite positiva twitterrykten s\u00e5 h\u00e4r p\u00e5 morgonen, som vi inte kan hugga 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