{"id":8777,"date":"2024-02-14T08:59:45","date_gmt":"2024-02-14T07:59:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-02-14\/"},"modified":"2024-02-14T08:59:45","modified_gmt":"2024-02-14T07:59:45","slug":"2024-02-14","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2024-02-14\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-02-14"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Jag blev lite duperad ig\u00e5r av att Deepstate inte gjorde n\u00e5gra kart\u00e4ndringar utan det blev en j\u00e4tte\u00e4ndring ig\u00e5r kv\u00e4ll ist\u00e4llet \u2013 nu \u00e4r fabriksomr\u00e5det och bebyggelsen i Avdiivka separata omr\u00e5den som ej har kontakt med varandra.<\/p>\n

Fabriksomr\u00e5dets f\u00f6rsvar skall nog inte underskattas men bebyggelsen i Avdiivka \u00e4r mycket n\u00e4ra att omfattas \u2013 ett st\u00f6rre f\u00f6retag mot Siverne av RU \u00e4r allt som beh\u00f6vs och det kommer i n\u00e4rtid.<\/p>\n

D\u00e5 \u00e5terst\u00e5r att se om det ligger n\u00e5got bakom twitterryktena att Ukraina drar ihop offensiva reserver i norr f\u00f6r ett motanfall. N\u00e4rmaste veckan blir mycket intressant.<\/p>\n

Vi diskuterade v\u00e4l ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6r n\u00e5gra dagar sedan att dom kanske h\u00e5ller fabriksomr\u00e5det men l\u00e4mnar bebyggelsen och faller tillbaka till f\u00f6rberett f\u00f6rsvar i p\u00e4rlbandet av orter V om Avdiivka \u2013 fungerar det ocks\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Dock s\u00e5 vill man v\u00e4l helst ha en f\u00f6rdr\u00f6jningsstrid genom bebyggelsen och inte tvingas sl\u00e4ppa den direkt med risk f\u00f6r omfattning. 3rd Azov \u00e4r synnerligen l\u00e4mpade f\u00f6r denna f\u00f6rdr\u00f6jningsstrid och UA gjorde samma i Severedonetsk \u2013 drog ut regulj\u00e4ra f\u00f6rband och skickade in de som klarar strid i ort.<\/p>\n

Ang\u00e5ende UA f\u00f6rluster som var uppe ig\u00e5r s\u00e5 kom d\u00e5 siffra 1:7. Tidigare har vi diskuterat \u2013
\n-60 000st \u2013 70 000st stupade UA soldater
\n\u2013 en RU f\u00f6rlustsiffra p\u00e5 400 000st.
\n-vi har h\u00f6rt m\u00e5nga g\u00e5nger ratio p\u00e5 1:5 i officiell kommunikation.
\n-UA hade med undantag f\u00f6r Lysychansk n\u00e4r det gick upp till 500st per dag 100st-150st per dag i f\u00f6rluster kommunicerat av Zelensky n\u00e4r det \u00e4r intensivt.<\/p>\n

L\u00e4gger man ihop allt \u00e4r det f\u00f6r mig vedertaget att RU f\u00f6rluster \u00e4r stupade \u2013 allts\u00e5 stend\u00f6da.<\/p>\n

Vi kan anta att UA har 1:3 i s\u00e5rade och den siffran har v\u00e4l snurrat runt f\u00f6rut i antal s\u00e5rade men det kanske var baserat p\u00e5 just 1:3 och ett antagande av experterna, vet inte.<\/p>\n

Vi har sk\u00e4l att anta att RU ratio \u00e4r mindre \u00e4n eller lika med 1:2, men att vintertid f\u00e5r man l\u00e4gga p\u00e5 30% i ej krigsrelaterade skador. Wagner hade 1:2 eller \u00f6ver i s\u00e5rade och dom backade v\u00e4l inte f\u00f6r en fight?<\/p>\n

Sen har jag vid flera tillf\u00e4llen f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt summera ihop den ryska totalen inklusive allt som vi k\u00e4nner till och 400 000st + 1:2 (en bit under\u2026) ger en siffra som passar med de 450 000st \u2013 500 000st som UA uppger finns i Ukraina + antalet mobiliserade \u2013 stupade och s\u00e5rade.<\/p>\n

Det finns s\u00e5ledes f\u00f6r mig inga direkta sk\u00e4l l\u00e4ngre att antaga att 400 000st skulle inkludera s\u00e5rade och sen finns det goda sk\u00e4l f\u00f6r mig att antaga att den siffran \u00e4r korrekt eller i underkant. Jag vet att jag har minst Erik14 med mig i detta antagande. Sen kommer ju alltid n\u00e5gra tillbaka att det ocks\u00e5 inkluderar s\u00e5rade men nu tycker jag det \u00e4r tillr\u00e4ckligt lett i bevis \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Sen st\u00e5r det utom tvivel att n\u00e4r historien skrivs s\u00e5 kommer de civila f\u00f6rlusterna vara absolut astronomiska. T\u00e4nk bara denna vinter i Mariupol, ingen elektricitet, ingen mat, sjukdomar och ryssar som f\u00f6rmodligen tar din mat och v\u00e4rme om du r\u00e5kar ha n\u00e5gon. Det \u00e4r andra krigsvintern de civila i Mariupol skall f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka \u00f6verleva dom som finns kvar. <\/p>\n

Jag p\u00e5st\u00e5r att Ryssland nu f\u00f6rlorat \u00f6ver 50% av sin raffinaderi och exportf\u00f6rm\u00e5ga. Raffinaderiet i Moskva var stort och stod f\u00f6r 40%-50% av br\u00e4nslet i Moskva.<\/p>\n

Enligt tidigare s\u00e5 har Ukraina koordinaterna till alla br\u00e4nsledep\u00e5er frontn\u00e4ra eller moderdep\u00e5er som ger m\u00e5nkratrar n\u00e4r dom f\u00e5r sina tekniska fel.<\/p>\n

Det tog 1.5 m\u00e5nad att sl\u00e5 ut h\u00e4lften av raffinaderikapaciteten och ser inga sk\u00e4l till att det skall g\u00e5 l\u00e5ngsammare fram\u00f6ver s\u00e5 i slutet Mars n\u00e5r man 100%.<\/p>\n

70% av RU energif\u00f6rs\u00f6rjning \u00e4r generatorer och specialoperationen slukar astronomiska m\u00e4ngder drivmedel s\u00e5 att sl\u00e5 ut raffinaderif\u00f6rm\u00e5gan \u00e4r ett skadande hugg.<\/p>\n

Vi fick veta av Tucker att Putin var intresserad av fredlig l\u00f6sning och nu l\u00e4ser vi, \u00e4ven om det var i Augusti 2023, att Putin str\u00e4ckt fram en olivkvist och vill r\u00e4dda barnen.
\nK\u00e4nns det h\u00e4r som att ryssarna vill kriga i fem \u00e5r till?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1757473318058197031?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

H\u00e4r ser ni f\u00f6rbandssatta T62 i motoriserad brigad men vad ser ni mer \u2013 det \u00e4r en ej modifierad vagn s\u00e5 den har rimligen f\u00e4rdigst\u00e4llts direkt fr\u00e5n dep\u00e5. En bradley eller CV90 utklassar denna vagn varje g\u00e5ng och snuddar en dr\u00f6nare s\u00e5 flyger den i luften.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/naalsio26\/status\/1757200677195878716?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

en Mig fabrik (flyg) verkar ha haft tekniskt fel, ser inte helt urbl\u00e5st ut men n\u00e5got brinner \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1757361649650991387?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraina forts\u00e4tter g\u00e5 efter de duktigaste dr\u00f6naroperat\u00f6rerna.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1757524812723818720?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Kan Ukraina nu bara visa t\u00e4nderna i Avdiivka ordentligt s\u00e5 kanske f\u00f6rlamningen i v\u00e4st till sist sl\u00e4pper.
\nAllt Ukraina beh\u00f6ver f\u00e5 \u00e4r ammunition till alla olika vapensystem, den offensiva reserven har dom redan och s\u00e5 kan kriget avg\u00f6ras 2024 men ammunition och vapenplattformar M\u00c5STE levereras det finns ingen genv\u00e4g till braksegern.<\/p>\n

Jag \u00e4r av \u00e5sikten att Tucker fick till uppgift att l\u00e4cka att Putin \u00e4r beredd att f\u00f6rhandla \u2013 det var del i hans uppgift. Svaghetstecken \u2013 absolut.<\/p>\n

Dock s\u00e5 har ingen lyckats provocera honom att g\u00e5 i f\u00f6rsvar \u00e4nnu.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/rpsagainsttrump\/status\/1757108409864745146?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

V\u00e5r gode v\u00e4n Elon tycker just nu att det viktigaste av allt \u00e4r att kongressen inte godk\u00e4nner st\u00f6d till Ukraina \u2013 explicit s\u00e5. Finns det n\u00e5gon som anser att han som teknik-under och en hyvens kille skulle ha det som prioriterad fr\u00e5ga?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/joshrogin\/status\/1757198677209199015?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Borde inte det varit Tesla, Twitter eller m\u00e5nlandningar?
\nSaker och ting \u00e4r ofta vad dom ser ut att vara och i fallet Elon \u00e4r det noll tvivel. Vore l\u00e4mpligt att titta p\u00e5 hur han finansierade k\u00f6pet av twitter, r\u00e4tt s\u00e4ker p\u00e5 att det \u00e4r ryska pengar bakom.<\/p>\n

Trodde ni att ni jobbade i en d\u00e5lig organisation \u2013 projektchefen, ni vet han som g\u00f6r alla misstag, skyller p\u00e5 alla andra och n\u00e4stan fick oss lynchade kom till projektet i Augusti 2023. Projektet hade redan en lokal talang som gjorde allt jobbet och fram till 23:00 och projektchefen punktmarkerade honom direkt. Han tog arbetsuppgift efter arbetsuppgift fr\u00e5n honom och anklagade honom f\u00f6r allt, st\u00f6ld, f\u00f6rskingring, allt.
\nHuvudkontoret gick p\u00e5 hans linje \u2013 allvarlig varning utf\u00e4rdad och chefen \u00f6ver honom i nederl\u00e4nderna har \u00f6ver tid g\u00e5tt mot att acceptera allt projektchefen s\u00e4ger och g\u00f6r som en sanning.
\nDen lokala f\u00f6rm\u00e5gan har nu sagt upp sig och tagit jobb hos best\u00e4llaren (kunden, employer, client) och dom gr\u00e4t n\u00e4stan p\u00e5 riktigt \u00f6ver turen att f\u00e5 \u00f6ver honom i sin organisation, dom trodde inte det var sant.
\nGissa om projektchefen har en fiende som kommer g\u00f6ra allt f\u00f6r att g\u00f6ra livet surt f\u00f6r honom och gissa om mitt f\u00f6retag kommer fasas ut fr\u00e5n det h\u00e4r projektet \u00f6ver tid och skulle inte f\u00f6rv\u00e5na mig om dom f\u00e5r f\u00e4rre projekt i landet\ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Vi f\u00e5r se hur Avdiivka spelar ut h\u00e4r, jag anser fortfarande baserat p\u00e5 Deepstate att det \u00e4r synnerligen skarpt l\u00e4ge och att det enda som egentligen kan l\u00f6sa situationen \u00e4r ett offensivt f\u00f6rs\u00f6k uppe vid Krasnohorivka. Kommer inte det \u00e4r det urn\u00e4stling som g\u00e4ller ur bebyggelsen och man kanske h\u00e5ller fabriksomr\u00e5det.<\/p>\n

Avdiivka \u00e4r precis som Bakhmut en enorm flugf\u00e4lla och ration \u00e4r 1:7 har jag f\u00f6r mig. Sen \u00e4r det en sanning att strider man inte i Avdiivka m\u00e5ste man strida n\u00e5gon annanstans eller hur \u2013 det blir inte lugn om man \u00f6verger Avdiivka.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Ropuchan var rimligen fullastad med ammunition?<\/p>\n

Dom anv\u00e4nds v\u00e4l alla f\u00f6r att f\u00e5 in ammunition till hamn n\u00e4rmast frontlinjerna nu n\u00e4r t\u00e5gn\u00e4tet \u00e4r utsatt och v\u00e4garna urusla.<\/p>\n

Ukraina har vekrligen punktmarkerat denna fartygstyp.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:49 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:51 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

S\u00e5g du JUSTITIA 10:23? Det var helt enkelt r\u00e4tt skepp att s\u00e4nka just i dag! \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:40 \u2013 Johan No.1 Jag blev lite duperad ig\u00e5r av att Deepstate inte gjorde n\u00e5gra kart\u00e4ndringar utan det blev en 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