{"id":882,"date":"2025-05-05T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-05T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/?p=882"},"modified":"2025-05-25T14:21:15","modified_gmt":"2025-05-25T12:21:15","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-5th-may-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/ukraine-daily-update-5th-may-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update 5th May 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

What happened over the last couple of days was for all to see, but the build-up to it is a bit of a mystery –<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump has previously bragged that it will be a peace deal in place \u201cbefore easter\u201d and it has been rumoured that Russia would declare the war won during this parade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The little Putin has built himself a replica of the German \u201cReichstag\u201d this year and intended to reenact the epic win of the second world war in front of his buddie-dictators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

He has built himself a strategic reserve so ample of troops to draw from along north Korean and Chinese units who would sing and march.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have seen the latest equipment in (large) numbers such as Armata and BT-90 along with some new drone platforms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

World leaders were invited and Xi Jinping had accepted for the first time since 2015.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin himself seemed to have played and lost with the overall truce by asking for too much \u2013 it looked like that I thought?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin then tried to get Zelensky to agree to a short truce 8-10 May (to protect his precious parade), and then also China has formally asked Zelensky to not drone the parade as they wanted to celebrate the genocide in Ukraine in peace and not risk anything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then all changed \u2013 Ukraine signed a mineral-deal with Trump that in the end was nothing and then USA disagreed to the shorter cease fire, and so did Zelensky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And Trump left the negotiations – not interested anymore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Crimea was absolutely covered in drones and the kicker \u2013 the Kerch bridge was targeted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It is rumoured that Putin has brought in an eye watering 260 No. of air defense systems to protect the parade so perhaps Crimea has been stripped of some \ud83d\ude36<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kerch bridge has been a rock solid no-no from the west, and USA in particular \u2013 Ukraine is not allowed to target that structure in any way after their successful strike sending a package on a Russian DHL truck over the bridge almost taking it out. It has been confirmed by Ukraine and it has also emerged through \u201canonymous sources\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then Budanov recommended all to bring ear plugs to the 9th<\/sup> May parade followed by his trademark grin, and Zelensky also confirmed that Ukraine could not guarantee the safety of anyone attending the parade – \u201cattend at your own risk\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And then it the embarrassment started for Putin – Slovakia and Serbia leaders called themselves in sick, Modi got busy with other stuff and will send his deputy foreign minister and Lukashenko of Belarus warned he might come a bit late as it will be a busy day for him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Icing on the cake \u2013 Putin confirmed that he would now join through zoom meeting instead of in person \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

All eyes on Xi Jinping that is the big price here and yes he did not disappoint \u2013 he will also attend remotely due to whatever reason he now had.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Putin had a solid lineup for the parade and we all remember last years parade where he had run out of material to parade so this year strength should be projected \u2013 loads of new equipment of the latest make.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It has also been rumoured that Putin intended to declare victory in the Ukraine war or similar so it is clear to me that Putin has considered Trump a most loyal partner in crime here \u2013 he bought it in full.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This complete pivot has caught Putin off guard and it is grossly humiliating to him this \u2013 it is like calling off your wedding the week before as your partner caught you cheating and sent the video to the guestlist, would have been better not to do it in the first place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Putin did and now he looks weak, exactly what GUR, Ukraine and Zelensky would have wanted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GUR have also increased their judge-executioner activities of Russian war criminals (generals and oligarks inside Russia) which has been the cause of some concern for the elite in the country now that they are not the only one party playing this game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yermak posted this picture \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So what made Trump do a full 360?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My best guess is that China has openly demonstrated how close they are to Russia and that Russia has shown how close they are to China. The US strategy of \u201cyour enemys enemy is my friend\u201d that they have played with Russia the entire war was not working. Then why rub russian backs maybe?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second is Trump \u2013 Zelensky meeting in the Vatican where Trump requested a one-on-one with Zelensky without the French windmill arms. Something was spoken in that meeting most likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the third that Trumps \u201ctariff-war\u201d that would topple China backfired spectacularly when Japan (or US investors) started selling some treasuries and the US bond market almost collapsed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USA have re-started weapons deliveries to Ukraine and allowed them to buy on contract which US have never allowed before during the entire war. The previous administration blocked this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zelensky would like to buy US made weapons for 50 billion usd for information.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We all witnessed Trumps trade war with horror, and I interpreted this as he had turned against Europe and allied with Russia. I also delivered my final analysis regarding Trumps Ukraine policy which was \u2013 close ally to Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now US is considering tough sanctions on Russia all of a sudden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Five Eyes have shared their space intel with the other partners, which they have also not done before, ever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU decided to be the adult in the room after Trumps complete tariff-fiasco and offered to increase purchases for 50 billion usd to erase the trade deficit \u2013 Trump can also call that a win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exactly how the discussions have gone behind closed doors in the US we do not know \u2013 perhaps US realized they need Europe against China?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps US realized Ukraine is a strategic ally?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps US realized China and Russia are too close?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regardless of what or what combinations \u2013 it is evident that the US has completely pivoted and it is likely that Ukraine have done the impossible here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whether or not Ukraine covers the parade in clouds of drones is almost secondary here \u2013 the damage is already done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course I hope they do cover the parade in hundreds of drones and Putin tries to crawl for cover under a crying and convulsing Xi \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What would be of more interest is that the chaos in Russia after a burning parade could be exploited by Ukraine to go on their offensive long awaited offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The country has a formidable strategic reserve, armoured vehicles in the thousands, amphibic warfare and air assault capacities and an absolute advantage in the drone weapon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They have also eliminated much of the Russian artillery and can neutralize the dreaded FAB bombs with electronic weapons systems \u2013 Russia need 6 of them for one target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Electronic wardare they also use to neutralize the Russian drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now 2025 Ukraine has the advantage it needs and if US and Europe allows them to fight as they see fit they will win this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump has been absolutely horrendous up until now so the pivot was most welcome and may now lead to a humiliating defeat of Russia if this plays out favorably.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Ukrainian people need hope \u2013 Kerch bridge cheered them up and a droned parade would certainly help.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recently the remains of a jailed Ukrainian journalist was returned home – the body had been severely tortured and the eyes and brain removed \u2013 Ukraine would drone Kreml if they were allowed too as Russia has absolutely raped that country (as they always do when they go to war).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The country has been crossed and they are prepared to go all the way \u2013 the only thing holding them back and their arms tied behind their back has been us in the west in our infinite wisdom and greatness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The tables have turned Mr Putin – game on senhor\ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And Zelensky – oh my god, this is just world class \u270a\u270a\u270a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

You have a chance to become a paid subscriber on Substack still, or otherwise follow on Bluesky or check out the homepage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What happened over the last couple of days was for all to see, but the build-up to it is a 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