{"id":9192,"date":"2024-06-12T08:55:09","date_gmt":"2024-06-12T06:55:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-06-12\/"},"modified":"2024-06-12T08:55:09","modified_gmt":"2024-06-12T06:55:09","slug":"2024-06-12","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2024-06-12\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-06-12"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

76th AAD ligger nu som insatsstyrka bakom Dnepr vilket ganska v\u00e4l talar om f\u00f6r oss vad ryssarna tror kommer h\u00e4nda f\u00f6r annars hade den varit offensiv resurs vid Avdiivka eller Bakhmut.<\/p>\n

Hotet vid norra fronten \u00e4r sv\u00e5rt att hantera f\u00f6r RU f\u00f6r det f\u00f6rl\u00e4nger aktiv front med 450km vilket \u00e4r n\u00e4stan lika l\u00e5ngt som existerande frontlinjer genom ockuperade omr\u00e5den.<\/p>\n

Dom skulle allts\u00e5 beh\u00f6va n\u00e5n halvmiljon man f\u00f6r att s\u00e4kra upp den vilket dom inte har s\u00e5 f\u00f6rmodligen lutar dom sig mot v\u00e4st att stoppa Ukraina fr\u00e5n att g\u00f6ra n\u00e5got bra. Idag 12 Juni \u00e4r en sm\u00e4ll rakt upp i de mjuka delarna absolut g\u00f6rbart och risken f\u00f6r eskalering \u00e4r n\u00e4rmast noll \u2013
\n-det har gjorts tre g\u00e5nger innan.
\n-Putins r\u00f6da linjer kan man st\u00e5 och hoppa p\u00e5.
\n-anfallande f\u00f6rband har en LV sk\u00e4rm som kan skjuta ned taktiska k\u00e4rnvapen (inte f\u00f6r att jag tror att Putin kommer exponera sig s\u00e5).<\/p>\n

Sen f\u00f6r att belysa linjen att inte eskalera, att inte skicka LV och sen sedan i v\u00e5ras inte skicka LV ammunition f\u00f6rr\u00e4n vintern 2024 n\u00e5gon g\u00e5ng \u2013 vad hade det att g\u00f6ra med att inte eskalera. Ingenting rimligen?<\/p>\n

Man sl\u00e4ngde bara ut Ukraina till vargarna, gav Putin ett halv\u00e5rs vattenpaus samt en chans f\u00f6r honom att bomba s\u00f6nder all viktig ukrainsk infrastruktur \u2013 varf\u00f6r, ammunitionen fanns ju?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1800670854495302140?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Jag tror det h\u00e4r med eskalering inte \u00e4r allt, det som ligger bakom kan ju vara att forts\u00e4tta g\u00f6ra business med Ryssland och vilja att normalisera relationen s\u00e5 snart kriget \u00e4r slut, \u00e5terst\u00e5r att se. Sen kanske USA t\u00e4nkt sig brotta Ryssland fr\u00e5n Kina, vem vet?<\/p>\n

Med tanke p\u00e5 att RU enligt uppgift uppe vid norra fronten hade 50 000st varav vilka minst 15 000st g\u00e5tt och d\u00f6tt och 20 000st kan vara allt mellan n\u00e5gra tusen till fulltaligt s\u00e5 har dom inte i n\u00e4rheten av det som beh\u00f6vs f\u00f6r att skydda gr\u00e4nsen.
\nUA har tillr\u00e4ckligt med f\u00f6rband i omr\u00e5det f\u00f6r att genomf\u00f6ra allvarliga r\u00e4der in i de norra oblasterna.<\/p>\n

Jag undrar om Putin f\u00e5r reda p\u00e5 v\u00e4sts alla r\u00f6da kort s\u00e5 han hela tiden kan prioritera?
\nKherson fick han evakuera i lugn och ro, Kharkiv k\u00f6rde UA sj\u00e4lva och \u00f6verraskade och sen spelade allt ut f\u00f6r fort men norra fronten har RU knappt brytt sig om fram tills nu v\u00e5ren 2024.<\/p>\n

Hur tror ni det sett ut idag om Kharkivoffensiven fortsatt rakt norrut redan 2022?
\nVid norra fronten vintern 2023 s\u00e5 avsl\u00f6jades ju Putin med att ha bef\u00e4st gr\u00e4nsen med n\u00e5gra dussin gr\u00e4nsvakter.<\/p>\n

Hade han varit orolig f\u00f6r ukrainska anfall hade han beh\u00f6vt en halvmiljon d\u00e4r och inget \u00f6ver till andra fronter.<\/p>\n

Det h\u00e4r \u00e4r ju det andra \u2013 f\u00e5r Putin reda p\u00e5 att Ukraina f\u00e5r tillst\u00e5nd att genomf\u00f6ra offensiva upp i de norra oblasterna kommer han tvingas ge upp ett omr\u00e5de i Ukraina f\u00f6r att kunna f\u00f6rsvara d\u00e4ruppe.
\nDet blir en s\u00e5n d\u00e4r frivillig retr\u00e4tt igen.<\/p>\n

Nu har han enligt RUMINT omf\u00f6rdelat LV som skydd n\u00e4r UA fick b\u00f6rja skjuta \u00f6ver gr\u00e4nsen.<\/p>\n

Blir det viskningar om offensiv kommer han f\u00e5 dra \u00e5tskilliga arm\u00e9k\u00e5rer fr\u00e5n fronterna i Ukraina och ist\u00e4llet f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rsvaga \u00f6verallt kanske dom ger upp ett omr\u00e5de igen?
\nNi ser ju sj\u00e4lva p\u00e5 kartan att en offensiv \u00f6ver gr\u00e4nsen vid norra fronten \u00e4r rakt in i Moskovitryssland och det gillar dom inte alls.<\/p>\n

Det skulle f\u00e5 bli prioriterat att f\u00f6rsvara och man sl\u00e4pper s\u00f6dra fronten samt Krim och ger tillbaka m\u00f6rkaste Donbass till rebellerna med en dunk i ryggen.
\nTills r\u00e4derna in i Ryssland \u00e5terstartar \u00e4r min linje att Ukraina inte f\u00e5r g\u00e5 in i Ryssland och d\u00e5 strider dom fortfarande inte p\u00e5 lika villkor \u00e4ven fast handen kanske inte \u00e4r bakbunden l\u00e4ngre.<\/p>\n

Eftersom det \u00e4r s\u00e5 har kadyroviterna betett sig i Ukraina och Wagner h\u00e5ller p\u00e5 i Afrika s\u00e5 \u00e4r det on-topic men det h\u00e4r \u00e4r nog bland det v\u00e4rsta jag l\u00e4st n\u00e5gonsin. Nu \u00e4r det i lite annan kontext men det \u00e4r informationen som \u00e4r det intressanta. S\u00e5 h\u00e4r ser det ut p\u00e5 sina h\u00e5ll och det \u00e4r vad v\u00e4st f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker f\u00f6rhindra. Ja det \u00e4r kul att hata USA och beskylla v\u00e4st f\u00f6r allt m\u00f6jligt hela tiden men d\u00e5 blir det s\u00e5 h\u00e4r ist\u00e4llet. Just nu \u00e4r Afrika p\u00e5 v\u00e4g att t\u00e4ndas upp och absolut ingen bryr.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/realmaalouf\/status\/1799889507619082549?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Det h\u00e4r var mycket rakt och tydligt fr\u00e5n v\u00e5r Statsminister \u2013 man f\u00f6rst\u00e5r precis var han st\u00e5r i fr\u00e5gan, gav honom en positiv kommentar.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/swedishpm\/status\/1800567157417181363?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Versailles brinner, v\u00e4nster-h\u00f6ger demonstrerar, Katalonierna g\u00e5r bananas, h\u00f6gern tar mark och dom \u00e5ker ut ur Afrika. Frankrike har v\u00e4ldigt mycket otur just nu.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/shadowofezra\/status\/1800551391678570642?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

T\u00e4nk om Ukraina f\u00e5tt den amerikanska versionen av TOS-1, hur tror ni d\u00e5 att Surovikinlinjen h\u00e5llit upp?
\nUSA har ocks\u00e5 n\u00e5n miljon termobariska granater som dom inte skickar f\u00f6r det \u00e4r oetiskt och eskalerande, b\u00e4ttre att l\u00e5ta ukrainska soldater br\u00e4nnas levande av TOS-1.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/thinkdefence\/status\/1800548722259963925?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Raffinaderibombningarna \u00e4r tillbaka med ett brak, nu i Belarus d\u00e4r ett av deras tv\u00e5 raffinaderier har brunnit.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kupl44vqyy2v<\/a><\/p>\n

Och RU har riktigt d\u00e5ligt med LV p\u00e5 djupet, s\u00e5 pass att dom f\u00f6rsvarar prioriterade m\u00e5l med finkalibriga vapen.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1800553940293193921?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

N\u00e5gon lyssnade p\u00e5 tr\u00e5dens f\u00f6rslag att dammsuga efter gamla Leo1 vagnar och modifiera dom till strv 122 eller den senare modifieringen som nu \u00e4r p\u00e5 g\u00e5ng.
\nVilken business vi hade haft men nu tog Norge den.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/alexluck9\/status\/1800476844107747665?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Den h\u00e4r har varit uppe men \u00d6sterrike tycker att det \u00e4r Ukraina som eskalerar\u2026
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/teoyaomiquu\/status\/1799642262403530755?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Tar man ett f\u00e5gelperspektiv p\u00e5 kriget s\u00e5 har v\u00e4st nu i stort sett enats och \u00f6ppnat ladorna och fr\u00e5n \u00f6versta hyllan som det v\u00e4l skrikits om i n\u00e5n tr\u00e5d sedan 2022. Allting fanns tillg\u00e4ngligt.
\nSen har produktionen i v\u00e4st kommit ig\u00e5ng, nu senast eldr\u00f6r.
\nDet h\u00e4r \u00e4r enormt d\u00e5ligt f\u00f6r Putin som inte har en chans att vinna det h\u00e4r kriget.
\nI all min bitterhet f\u00e5r jag tillst\u00e5 att Ukraina kommer k\u00f6ra p\u00e5 h\u00e4r trots alla chamberlain-doktriner men det har varit fel att ta den risken. Att inte skicka n\u00e5got mellan v\u00e5ren 2023 \u2013 vintern 2024 var h\u00f6grisk. <\/p>\n

Att v\u00e4st s\u00e5sar med spetsflyget ytterligare \u00e4r v\u00e4l del i den h\u00e4r deeskaleringsstrategin men det b\u00f6rjar k\u00e4nnas som det \u00e4r sekund\u00e4rt f\u00f6r kriget g\u00e5r vidare.
\nSen \u00e4r jag av \u00e5sikten att de \u201dkrigsvinnande vapenpaketen\u201d nu har levererats och att retoriken \u00e4r tillr\u00e4ckligt h\u00e5rd \u2013 2023 var verkligen en katastrof i strategisk kommunikation n\u00e4r dom efter NATO m\u00f6tet ans\u00e5g att Ukraina skulle vara tacksamma och inte kr\u00e4va s\u00e5 mycket och sen uteblev de krigsvinnande vapenpaketen.<\/p>\n

Man f\u00e5r hoppas att direktlinan till Putin \u00e4r bruten s\u00e5 han f\u00e5r sitta och gissa nu vilket han inte gillar.<\/p>\n

Sen \u00e4r det ett par som driver det h\u00e4r med frysta fronter och att det skulle gynna Putin \u2013 hur d\u00e5 om UA nu f\u00e5r skjuta in i Ryssland samt kan sl\u00e5 ut m\u00e5l 2000km in p\u00e5 ryskt territorium?
\n3000km har dom v\u00e4l lovat men vi har inte sett det \u00e4nnu.
\nUkraina kan i lugn och ro forts\u00e4tta sl\u00e5 ut h\u00f6gv\u00e4rdiga m\u00e5l tills Ryssland \u00e4r p\u00e5 kn\u00e4.<\/p>\n

Dom har fortfarande t\u00e4nkt sig att \u00e5terta sitt land vilket dom kommer g\u00f6ra, men om den kritiska linjen \u00e4r spetsflyget s\u00e5 glider den nu.<\/p>\n

Putin b\u00f6r vara inm\u00e5lad i ett h\u00f6rn \u2013 har sonderingar kring f\u00f6rhandlingar m\u00f6ts av tystnad fr\u00e5n v\u00e4st, alla hans offensiver har misslyckats kapitalt och Ukraina har nu n\u00e5tt full styrka. <\/p>\n

Jag hade ocks\u00e5 en uppenbarelse ig\u00e5r, drog p\u00e5 mig arbetsskorna, tog n\u00e5gra steg och k\u00e4nde att det kittlade lite \u2013 n\u00e4r jag f\u00e5tt av mig skon l\u00e5g det en enorm mosad kackerlacka i den, f\u00f6r vissa kommer guds v\u00e4gar vara outgrundliga var budskapet \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:48 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d Ja, det \u00e4r f\u00f6rbaskat m\u00e4rkligt att man inte skickat mer LV tidigare n\u00e4r det faktiskt finns att skicka och det inte ens \u00e4r en r\u00f6d linje ens f\u00f6r ryssarna (\u00e4ven om de var uppr\u00f6rda n\u00e4r f\u00f6rsta Patriot-systemet levererades). Finns ingen urs\u00e4kt alls f\u00f6r det! Civila har d\u00f6tt och elf\u00f6rs\u00f6rjningen har hunnit bli h\u00e5rt drabbad p\u00e5 grund av det.<\/p>\n

N\u00e4stan s\u00e5 jag misst\u00e4nker att man skickar hyggligt med LV nu bara f\u00f6r att man \u00e4r r\u00e4dd f\u00f6r att ryssarna ska lyckas sl\u00e5 ut F-16 n\u00e4r de anl\u00e4nt. Visserligen inte dumt t\u00e4nkt, men \u00e4nd\u00e5 cyniskt att det inte levererats tidigare. Hoppas det inte \u00e4r s\u00e5 att man tycker att ammunitionen till Patriot \u00e4r s\u00e5 dyr att det \u00e4r f\u00f6rst n\u00e4r de ska skydda de \u00e4nnu dyrare F-16 som man tycker att det \u00e4r v\u00e4rt att skicka fler system\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Misstankarna \u00e4r m\u00e5nga.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:51 \u2013 Johan No.1 76th AAD ligger nu som insatsstyrka bakom Dnepr vilket ganska v\u00e4l talar om f\u00f6r oss vad 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