{"id":9381,"date":"2024-08-05T09:27:24","date_gmt":"2024-08-05T07:27:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-08-05\/"},"modified":"2024-08-05T09:27:24","modified_gmt":"2024-08-05T07:27:24","slug":"2024-08-05","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2024-08-05\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-08-05"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:35 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Tidig h\u00f6st \u00e4r det upp till bevis hur Ukrainas LV fungerar (vad som levererats) f\u00f6r Ryssland har absolut f\u00f6rberett sig f\u00f6r en rej\u00e4l sm\u00e4ll mot elf\u00f6rs\u00f6rjningen \u2013 nytillverkning, liten f\u00f6rbrukning och dom har f\u00f6rt fram TU95 till baserna dom normalt anv\u00e4nder f\u00f6r sina robot-r\u00e4der.<\/p>\n

Kan Ukraina kopiera sitt mest lyckade f\u00f6rsvar och skjuta ned +90% samtidigt som dom sj\u00e4lva genomf\u00f6r v\u00e5ldsamma vederg\u00e4llningsattacker mot RU k\u00e4nslig infrastruktur skulle det s\u00e4nda en mycket stark signal till Putin och hans opposition.<\/p>\n

Om Ukraina inte f\u00e5tt tillr\u00e4ckligt med LV s\u00e5 tr\u00e4ffarna blir m\u00e5nga och sen f\u00e5r massa p\u00e5bud fr\u00e5n USA att inte sl\u00e5 d\u00e4r det g\u00f6r ont s\u00e5 kommer det s\u00e4nda en signal till medborgarna i Ukraina och +50% kunde v\u00e4l idag t\u00e4nka sig fredssamtal.<\/p>\n

Vi vet ju vid det h\u00e4r laget hur Putin t\u00e4nker och eftersom det \u00e4r dags f\u00f6r f\u00f6rhandlingar i h\u00f6st s\u00e5 kommer han sl\u00e4pp l\u00f6s allt i robotv\u00e4g \u00f6ver Ukraina f\u00f6r att skaffa sig b\u00e4sta m\u00f6jliga utg\u00e5ngspunkt f\u00f6r vidare diskussioner.
\nSannolikt \u00e4r planen eld-upph\u00f6r och sedan diskussioner UA \u2013 RU och d\u00e4r Kina \u00e4r med ocks\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Vi vet ju redan att Ryssland brutit alla avtal dom n\u00e5gonsin haft med Ukraina d\u00e5 det postats i tr\u00e5den s\u00e5 ett nytt avtal \u00e4r s\u00e5ledes helt meningsl\u00f6st, vilket egentligen g\u00f6r f\u00f6rhandling om fred meningsl\u00f6st men det finns risk att v\u00e4st l\u00e5tit sig pratas omkull av Putin h\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

\u00c4r ett eldupph\u00f6r meningsfullt?
\nFr\u00e5gan jag sitter och funderar p\u00e5 \u00e4r vad som kommer h\u00e4nda med Kina \u2013 Ryssland relationen s\u00e5 fort det blir eldupph\u00f6r eller n\u00e5t avtal kommer till st\u00e5nd och om det d\u00e5 \u00e4r fritt fram f\u00f6r Kina att bev\u00e4pna Ryssland f\u00f6r en rond tv\u00e5?
\nDet \u00e4r r\u00e4tt tydligt att Putin vill ha l\u00e4ttade sanktioner som PerraG55 s\u00e4ger f\u00f6r p\u00e5verkansoperationen med den frisl\u00e4ppta oppositionen verka ju har som prioritet att direkt diskutera l\u00e4ttande av sanktionerna.<\/p>\n

Den ryska tillverkningsbasen f\u00f6r vapen var 2023 skrattretande liten och jag tror inte det ser mycket b\u00e4ttre ut 2024 men om landet i lugn och ro f\u00e5r b\u00f6rja producera vapensystem igen och Kina skjuter till det som saknas s\u00e5 kommer dom naturligtvis kunna resurss\u00e4tta ett nytt krig.<\/p>\n

Dom har upp till 700 000st ukrainska barn (ryssarna skryter sj\u00e4lva om den siffran) d\u00e4r de \u00e4ldre redan tr\u00e4nas s\u00e5 ja ni har gissat r\u00e4tt \u2013 Putin planerar att anfalla Ukraina igen med ukrainska (barn) soldater.<\/p>\n

Sen kommer RU f\u00f6rmodligen s\u00e4tta upp hela f\u00f6rband av kontrakterade soldater fr\u00e5n Afrika och sen forts\u00e4tta rekrytera fr\u00e5n minoritetsomr\u00e5dena i Ryssland s\u00e5 att livet blir normalt f\u00f6r moskovit-ryssarna samtidigt som Putin f\u00f6r ett krig med gamla hederliga colonial-regiments.<\/p>\n

Men vi beh\u00f6ver inte komma dit, jag \u00e4r av \u00e5sikten att det strategiska bombkriget redan \u00e4r f\u00f6rlorat f\u00f6r Ryssland och nu g\u00e5r UA efter FAB bombf\u00e4llarna bevisligen.
\nSteg tv\u00e5 vore ju att f\u00f6ra en mer dynamisk och aggressiv f\u00f6rsvarsstrid och sen f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka pricka in en rysk l\u00e5gpunkt f\u00f6r egna offensiva operationer.
\nMen allt det kr\u00e4ver att man tillf\u00f6r resurser i tillr\u00e4cklig m\u00e4ngd s\u00e5 vi f\u00e5r v\u00e4l v\u00e4nta och se om v\u00e4st gjort det.<\/p>\n

Ukrainas egen tillverkningskapacitet \u00e4r p\u00e5 kraftigt \u00f6kande och nu har dom flygburen Neptun och enligt g\u00e4llande regler \u00e4r det v\u00e4l inga begr\u00e4nsningar p\u00e5 dom. Men det hindrar ju inte nya begr\u00e4nsningar att inf\u00f6ras naturligtvis.<\/p>\n

N\u00e4r ni h\u00f6r hur det l\u00e5ter i tr\u00e5den s\u00e5 kan ni gissa hur det l\u00e5ter i Ukraina och hur det kommer l\u00e5ta om det h\u00e4r kriget tar slut p\u00e5 ett of\u00f6rdelaktigt s\u00e4tt f\u00f6r Ukraina. V\u00e4st spelar som sagt ett mycket h\u00f6gt spel h\u00e4r men nu b\u00f6rjar \u00e4ven Kier Starmer f\u00e5 fullt upp efter att han f\u00f6rtydligade att Storm Shadow f\u00e5r anv\u00e4ndas mot m\u00e5l i Ryssland.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6rst ut var ju Frankrike efter att Macron hade fr\u00e4ckheten att g\u00e5 emot Ryssland tidigt 2024.<\/p>\n

I flera l\u00e4nder i Europa har det nu skett spektakul\u00e4ra v\u00e5ldsd\u00e5d och sen \u00e4r h\u00f6gern direkt ute och demonstrerar. Spanien hade tv\u00e5 halshuggningar p\u00e5 en dag, i UK knivm\u00f6rdades tre sm\u00e5 barn. I Sverige annonserar man att h\u00f6gern skall ut och demonstrera slutet Augusti mot Islam. Efter medias krigsrubriker kommer direkt j\u00e4mf\u00f6relserna hur media rapporterade kring demonstrationerna efter George Floyd och allt \u00e4r ig\u00e5ng. Jag ser en ned\u00e5tg\u00e5ende spiral i detta, lite som en perfekt storm.<\/p>\n

Och jag ser att de l\u00e4nder som tar t\u00e4ten mot Putin f\u00e5r en massa demonstrationer p\u00e5 halsen efter ett tag. Kier Starmer tog direkt emot Zelensky, han hade m\u00f6te med alla ledare i EU och gjorde h\u00e5rda uttalanden mot Putin och nu \u00e4r islamister\/v\u00e4nster \u2013 h\u00f6ger i fullt krig mot varandra och kabinettet i krism\u00f6te.
\nPrecis det som h\u00e4nde med Macron n\u00e4r han gjorde samma.
\nSen g\u00e5r ju rysk psyops p\u00e5 h\u00f6gvarv med Macron och Kier Starmer f\u00f6r att forma folklig opinion mot dom.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6r \u00f6vrigt \u00e4r det demonstrationer i Tyskland nu f\u00f6r fred i Ukraina \u2013 allts\u00e5 f\u00f6rhandlingar, tyskarna b\u00f6rjar helt pl\u00f6tsligt engagera sig i Ukrainakriget.<\/p>\n

Det h\u00e4r \u00e4r inte enkelt att navigera f\u00f6r fredsskadade politiker i EU men har Ukraina klarat 2.5 \u00e5r i ett existentiellt krig utan att svikta s\u00e5 \u00e4r v\u00e4l det minsta man kan beg\u00e4ra fr\u00e5n v\u00e4st att dom inte l\u00e5ter sig pratas omkull av Putin eller hur?<\/p>\n

F\u00f6rklaringsmodellerna kommer is\u00e5fall vara o\u00e4ndligt m\u00e5nga om s\u00e5 sker till varf\u00f6r detta var oundvikligt men det vet ju vi att s\u00e5 \u00e4r inte fallet, det \u00e4r aktiva beslut att bromsa Ukraina som lett oss hit \u2013 vi har nu idag 2024 i stort sett allt klart f\u00f6r oss d\u00e5 Ukraina valt att g\u00e5 ut med mycket av det som sagts.<\/p>\n

NATO har en chans att eliminera hotet Ryssland utan att offra en enda soldat, allt dom beh\u00f6vde var att skicka materiel.
\nNu kan det ist\u00e4llet bli kapprustning, kallt krig och framtida krig av detta \u2013 om n\u00e5gon f\u00f6resl\u00e5r att det h\u00e4r \u00e4r en bra l\u00f6sning har dom fel om dom inte gillar Putin f\u00f6rst\u00e5s.<\/p>\n

Nu har jag v\u00e4l tjatat i n\u00e5gra veckor om recession\/b\u00f6rskrasch\/l\u00e5gkonjunktur och kopplingen \u00e4r den att jag tror att v\u00e4st kommer var mindre ben\u00e4gna att st\u00f6dja Ukraina om det \u00e4r finansiell oro. L\u00e4ste n\u00e5gonstans att en modest japansk r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jning utl\u00f6ste en rej\u00e4l s\u00e4ljpanik och d\u00e5 har det v\u00e4l n\u00e5tt niv\u00e5n att minsta utl\u00f6sande faktor r\u00e4cker kanske?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:59 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Tack f\u00f6r dagens gula v\u00e4gg!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Tack sj\u00e4lv \ud83d\ude00\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:35 \u2013 Johan No.1 Tidig h\u00f6st \u00e4r det upp till bevis hur Ukrainas LV fungerar (vad som levererats) f\u00f6r Ryssland 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