World and Ukraine daily update May 1, 2025

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Two things have been concluded regarding the power outage –

1-two major events occurred in Spain, one can speculate that the first might have triggered the second?

“The grid appears to have experienced an initial, second-long power generation loss from which it swiftly recovered. But immediately after, it experienced the longer interruption that triggered the blackout, according to Red Eléctrica, Spain’s national transmission system operator (TSO). “

Spain denies that renewable energy was behind it, and one of the events was a 15,000MW loss from France anyway.

“According to Red Eléctrica, the problem originated in the southwestern region of Extremadura, which is home to the country’s most powerful nuclear power plant, some of its largest hydroelectric dams, and numerous solar farms“.

2-the stability of the power grid began to fluctuate already at 09:30 on Monday even though the major power outage was around lunchtime.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250430-what-we-know-so-far-about-the-massive-blackout-that-hit-spain-and-portugal

What is highly interesting, however, is this – anomalies were already observed in the UK on Sunday even though they were not affected by the power outage at all 🧐

“Britain struck by unusual power activity hours before blackouts in Spain and Portugal

The UK was struck by unusual power activity hours before large swathes of Spain and Portugal were hit by blackouts, it has emerged.

Britain’s grid operator has confirmed it is investigating unexplained changes in electricity frequency seen early on Sunday morning and also in the evening. The system’s frequency must be kept within specific limits for the lights to remain on.

Control room staff noticed the first incident at around 2 am at the Keadby 2 gas-fired power plant in Lincolnshire, as well as the Viking Link interconnector between the UK and Denmark. Then, power plant failures were again seen at around 6 pm.

National Energy System Operator (Neso), the quango that operates Britain’s grid, has confirmed to The Independent that officials are investigating the unexpected activity, with the cause still unknown. It is thought that there was a disconnection from the network in both instances, which was contained by control room engineers each time.”

Suspicions are arising that when the frequency started to fluctuate, power-generating units shut down, and in Spain, they did not have the redundancy that the UK had.

So, what caused this in the UK already on Sunday is a question that needs to be answered to better understand this.

The fire around the power line in southern France logically cannot have been the cause of the issue in the UK already on Sunday – it seems like a dead end even though the 15,000MW loss from France is confirmed, but it could have been a transformer station that shut down when the frequency started to fluctuate?

The more information we receive, the more suspicious I become, it was neither excessively hot nor cold so no consumption peaks, 11 degrees at night and 24 degrees during the day.

I’m pondering further on Operation Baltikum –

The question is how much ammunition Europe currently has available as ammunition supply is obscene during wartime. And then how many sabotages we will encounter at storage sites.

Then the question arises about how well-developed both our drone weapons and drone defense are?

Russia’s wave of sabotage will naturally focus on single points of failure – if they can burn down the fuel tanks for the F35 at an airbase, there won’t be much flying from that base in the critical first week.

The central JDAM depot, and the JDAM factory inexplicably catching fire.

Then the next question – are Europe’s countries prepared for war with Russia and what needs to be voted on in our parliaments.

We already know that Hungary and Slovakia will slow down everything in the EU, and then votes will be targets for Russian influence, a no vote only needs to be 51%, and the bribe money that the EU has refused to freeze in the European banking system.

High risk that country after country in Europe will not send anything as the parliaments do not get a majority for it.

Europe has not –

stopped the shadow fleet but bought oil until December 2024.

-significantly reduced cable breaks.

-done much about the wave of sabotage in Europe.

-assisted Ukraine until May 2025.

-punished Russia for 2015.

-stopped Russia’s actions in Africa.

-punished Russia for October 7th.

 Viewing this from a Russian perspective, the likelihood is probably high that Europe will hesitate long enough for them to achieve their goal of showing Europe and NATO as weak and destabilizing the markets.

Putin probably wants two things with this – to show that Europe and NATO are weak and to throw Europe into financial and political chaos so that we turn inward as global escalation continues.

Retreat, yes, and the invasion force is collateral.

Then it’s “tit for tat” and how far is Europe willing to go.

We can assume that RU is prepared to shell cities in the Baltics with rockets.

And then the most important question – will the USA prevent Storm Shadow, JDAMs, F-16s, and Gripens from targeting objectives in the Baltics?

And will they assist us in the Baltics?

The risk is that they may not?

Now, finally, you have the chance to show appreciation to MXT and his work on the website and the daily (well…) yellow posts – IT has installed a donation button on johanno1.se, if you look around a bit, you will see a QR code.

There is also a donation page for Ukraine on johanno1.se with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations that we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.

On Substack – there is still a chance to follow and subscribe if it feels more right to go that route, which some have done.

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109 thoughts on “World and Ukraine daily update May 1, 2025”

  2. 205

    Update from 08:00 01.05.2025 on the Russian invasion

     

    A total of 196 combat actions were recorded during the past day.

    ⏱️177, 178, 168, 174, 156, 175, 168, 144, 165, 96, 127, 162, 143, 125, 111, 99

     

    #Kharkiv Kharkiv 2

    ⏱️2, 9, 6, 0, 0, 0, 4, 4, 0, 1, 2, 7, 1

    #Kupyansk 6

    ⏱️9, 7, 3, 4, 5, 4, 1, 3, 2, 1, 7, 11, 4

    #Lyman 36↗️💥💥

    ⏱️21, 18, 20, 22, 19, 15, 20, 14, 25, 12, 14, 17, 20

    #Siverskyi 2

    ⏱️4, 6, 2, 3, 5, 8, 12, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 2

    #Kramatorsk 6↘️

    ⏱️13, 10, 16, 13, 8, 13, 1, 6, 4, 5, 7, 6, 8

    #Toretsk 10💥

    ⏱️6, 14, 9, 29, 16, 17, 13, 23, 10, 18, 26, 11

    #Pokrovsk 85💥💥💥💥

    ⏱️75, 59, 64, 68, 44, 65, 56, 53, 61, 39, 54, 64

    #Novopavlivka 16💥

    ⏱️13, 23, 13, 13, 19, 10, 15, 17, 19, 5, 12, 9, 9

    #Huliaipil 0

    ⏱️0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

    #Orikhivsk 5↗️

    ⏱️0, 5, 1, 4, 4, 9, 3, 5, 3, 4, 3, 3, 1

    #Prydniprovsky 1

    ⏱️1, 5, 1, 1 , 1, 3, 1, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0

    #Kursk 21💥

    ⏱️25, 15, 23, 15, 30, 27, 26, 22, 21, 16, 20, 23, 21

     

    In the Kharkiv sector, the enemy attempted to break through AFU🇺🇦’s defensive lines near Vovchansk twice.

     

    Six attacks took place in the Kupyansk sector yesterday. AFU🇺🇦 repelled enemy attacks on Petropavlivka, Hlushkivka, Novoosynove, and Zahryzove.

     

    In the Lyman sector, the enemy launched 36 attacks trying to breach our defense in the areas of Novosergiivka, Nadiya, Tverdokhlibove, Ridkodub, Nove, Novyi Mir, Zelena Dolyna, Kolodyazi, and towards Novomykhailivka and Hrekivka.

     

    In the Siverskyi sector, AFU🇺🇦 successfully thwarted two hostile attacks near Verkhnekamianske.

     

    In the Kramatorsk sector, the occupiers attacked six times in the areas of Bila Hora, Andriivka, and Chasovyi Yar.

     

    In the Toretsk sector, the enemy carried out ten attacks in the areas of Druzhba, Dachne, Diliyivka, and Toretsk.

     

    In the Pokrovsk sector, AFU🇺🇦 repelled 85 attacks from the aggressor in the areas of Stara Mykolayivka, Kalynove, Yelizavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Promin, Dachanske, Nadiivka, Novooleksandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Troitske, Bohdanivka, Andriivka, and towards Zorya, Malynivka, Myrolyubivka, Hnativka, Oleksandropol, Pokrovsk, Novosergiivka, and Nova Poltavka.

     

    In the Novopavlivka sector, the enemy launched 16 attacks in the areas of Kostiantynopil, Pryvilne, Vilne Pole, and towards Odradne, Shevchenko, and Bahatyry.

     

    No combat actions took place in the Huliaipil sector yesterday.

     

    In the Orikhivsk sector, the occupation forces stormed the defense positions five times near Stepove, Lobkove, and Kamianske.

     

    In the Prydniprovskyi sector, AFU🇺🇦 successfully repelled a hostile attack.

     

    In the Volyn and Polissya sectors, no signs of hostile offensive groups were detected.

     

    The Ukrainian defense forces continue their operations in the Kursk region. In the past day, 21 combat actions took place in this area, the enemy conducted 13 air strikes, released 16 guided aerial bombs, and fired 266 artillery shells, five of which were from multiple rocket launchers.

     

     

    In the last 24 hours, the defense forces 🇺🇦’s air force, drone forces, and artillery struck nine areas with concentrations of personnel, weapons, and military equipment, an air defense system, an artillery system, and three hostile checkpoints.

  3. MatsExtrude

    The Russian losses in Ukraine:
    1230 KIA
    3 Tanks
    11 APVs
    45 Artillery systems
    1 MLRS
    2 Anti-Aircraft systems
    112 UAVs
    139 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
    Glory to Ukraine!

  8. Jan W

    Johan! I appreciate your commitment and value the research that you share with us. But if Russia has the resources to disrupt power grids in this way – why now? Why not wait for a more critical moment?

    Of course, one would like to test their capacity. Naturally. However, the problem with that is that there must be a very high probability that the other side (us) improves resilience (protection). Next time, in a real crisis, it will be more difficult.

    1. Westley Richard

      One might want to point out how vulnerable the power grid is when there is too much renewable energy in the mix.
      Russia dreams of selling gas again.

      1. Jan W

        Logical!

        However, I wonder if this is enough to influence in that direction. Doubtful. A few gas turbines as backup power could be good to have in itself. Maybe it wouldn’t provide much volume though. I also don’t think that Europe will become dependent on Russia again.

        On the other hand, of course, it is difficult to see through Russian thinking.

    2. johan No.1

      Betatest?

      This must come in connection with the RU attack into the Baltics and we cannot fix this until then?

      We are within the window of the Russian sabotage wave in any case.

      We’ll see 😀

  9. MatsExtrude

    “Pete Hegseth, the US Secretary of Defense, threatens Iran. The reason is the country’s support for the Houthi movement in Yemen. He writes in a post on X that the US sees Iran’s “deadly support for the Houthis” and “We know exactly what you are doing.””
    https://omni.se/a/wgjajd

  10. MatsExtrude

    “After considerable humiliation in dealings with the US’s Donald Trump, the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky seems to have received some vindication in the final version of the mineral agreement between the countries, writes DN’s Karin Eriksson in an analysis. Even though the details are not known, the agreement appears to bring some successes for Ukraine.”

    2. Westley Richard

      Now Trump has achieved a win, we hope that this will thaw the relationship with Zelensky. I believe that everyone who has made a deal with him will rise in his esteem.  

      1. Lasse W

        They are quite media-savvy now, both Denys and the accent man. They know how to make something out of nothing. I don’t know how many clips I’ve seen from Pokrovsk where Ukraine makes incursions into the Russian bulge but doesn’t advance further, instead maintaining its well-established strong defensive lines. UA has been solely on the defensive for a long time.

  12. jahojariaho

    Brilliant thanks! We’ll see what comes up!
    The other day I wondered what “ryzZka territorial gains” means!
    Pure propaganda it is!
    Conclusion 1: Ukraine gave up in Kursk and has regained territory! I consider this a plus for Ukraine 💛💙🇺🇦💪
    Conclusion 2: ryzZland – Ukraine is a draw in principle according to official sources regarding territory! As for “other,” Ukraine beats the crap out of the ryzZians! So here is my opinion plus Ukraine 💙💛🇺🇦💪!

    As Johan would have said! Positive, Positive, Positive, Positive….and now one can buy weapons!
    To draw a conclusion from this mathematics impact, I give it to Johan, who is No1 in that area 🎖🏆🏅

      1. jahojariaho

        0.0005% to ruzzk advantage up until 2025 with 2024!
        The thing is that Ukraine is good at not sending false information. Loss, gain, etc. Have fed AI with everything I found so a draw seems to be a good rounding considering the minimal figure!
        Disclaimer: It looks like by May 1st in 2025, Ukraine is leading with 0.06% taken back of the original territory, so maybe even leading overall, with what I haven’t managed to include yet?

  13. Westley Richard

    The peace agreement regarding energy infrastructure still seems to apply to some extent, or have there been any major attacks recently?

        1. MatsExtrude

          I hope so! 😄

          It was probably some smaller depot that burned the other day.

          Of course, I had expected Ukraine to pour it on when it stopped, but there has been very little.

  14. Westley Richard

    It is clear that the Spanish government denies that the dependence on solar and wind power is behind the disaster. Three years ago, they decided to phase out nuclear power, they have about the same credibility as the Green Party in energy issues.

    4. Lammis watching ruzzian empire go BOOM

      Many have commented on it – he actually asked the woman sitting next to him in the Kremlin if she was his translator, if she was from the (American) embassy! No one with experience would sit with an unknown translator (how to trust that the translation is correct?). Shows how totally inexperienced Witkoff is in diplomatic contexts. Good analysis of this (around 12 minutes in): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_StdCejEGw&t=31s

  22. MatsExtrude

    “Direct hits from Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade. FPV drones struck Russian infantry, vehicles, and equipment — BMP, gun, antenna, truck, UAZ, AGS, generator, golf cart, and a Niva.”

  23. MatsExtrude

    “Kinesiska soldater marscherar redan i Moskvas 9 maj-parad repetitioner – så mycket för “neutralitet”. Om Xi Jinping ansluter sig till showen kommer vi officiellt att ha en cosplay av andra världskriget där skurkarna marscherar tillsammans… låtsas att de var hjältarna.”

  24. MatsExtrude

    “Over 3,000 cars are stuck on the Russian side of the Kerch Bridge as tens of thousands of tourists rush to occupied Crimea for the May holidays—ignoring oil-covered beaches and the growing risk of Ukrainian strikes.”

    2. Lynx

      And do we sense a shift in the wind now between the USA and Ukraine..? It could be related, some are starting to suspect that China and Moscow have something going on. So maybe… it’s not a good idea to throw Ukraine under the bus anymore.

      But with the mineral deal, perhaps the realization will come that it might be wise to be on Ukraine’s side when the Donbass region is recaptured, smarter than trying to negotiate with Moscow about occupied areas that only North Korea will recognize.

  30. MatsExtrude

    “Morning in Belgorod doesn’t start with coffee.
    Since dawn, some unidentified FPVs have been circling the region and “clearing” the roads.”

  32. MatsExtrude

    Thinking about Hassan and those 100,000 from Germany. 😄

    “Minister: 40,000 Hungarian gays welcome to Sweden

    Minister for Development Cooperation Benjamin Dousa (M) welcomes Hungarians who are dissatisfied with the country’s LGBTQ policy to Sweden, reports Expressen. The statement came as the government and the Swedish Institute presented a new strategy for a stronger image of Sweden.”
    https://omni.se/a/lwjBXA

      1. johan No.1

        Is it okay to joke about this in 2025 🧐

        Now that you are the admin, you obviously have control, but one preferably wouldn’t want to become the new JK Rowling.

    2. Westley Richard

      We already have a surplus of men of reproductive age that exceeds many other countries.
      If there is something we need to welcome, it is young women.
       

  33. MatsExtrude

    Seth Meyers on Trump’s “successful” efforts regarding the economy in the first 100 days.

    The last quarter of last year, the US economy was stronger than ever. Trump took credit, of course, because he looked like he was going to win the election.
    Now that everything is going poorly, he blames… Yes, of course, it’s Biden’s fault! 😄

    https://youtu.be/HgGK3nRE5uQ?si=IbjxCAqG_UwVuP1q

  34. MatsExtrude

    “USA now has a different relationship with Ukraine than they had yesterday. That’s what military expert Joakim Paasikivi tells Ekot. With a mineral agreement in place, there are conditions for the USA to justify continued support for Ukraine since the country benefits from it.”

  35. johan No.1

    Jan W – don’t forget that BankID was disrupted in a cyberattack recently and then both Heathrow was plunged into darkness and a transformer station burned in the UK recently.

    I am of the very strong opinion that Europe must currently view all accidents as deliberate sabotage until proven otherwise.

    Because if the opposite is done and companies and concerned authorities/politicians are allowed to cover up, the Russian sabotage wave will be able to reach storm strength before any kind of coordinated effort is made to eliminate all the agents running around causing havoc.

    Right now, we only know that already on Sunday the frequency fluctuated so much in the UK that a couple of electricity producers had to shut down, but this could be absorbed by redundancy.

    Then on Monday, the frequency fluctuated in Portugal at 09:30 and around lunchtime, 15,000MW disappeared from the import line from France, and then a total production loss from energy producers in Spain.

    Or if it was the other way around – and then it should have been the frequency from Spain that caused the French transmission station or whatever it is to shut off and THEN 15,000MW disappeared in a few seconds?

    What I seem to see is that when the frequency started to fluctuate, producers shut down and in Spain’s case, it became unsustainable quite immediately, with cascading effects spilling over to Portugal and southern France.

    Belgium probably had the same problem as the UK – it would be good to know the exact time of their problem.

    Italy seems to have been affected a bit by Spain, and when Germany had its problems, it would be good to know.

    It was 11 degrees at night and 24 degrees during the day, so actually a time of year without demand peaks.

    09:30 is also after the peak demand hours in Spain when everyone gets up and showers and makes coffee, right?

    12:30 is definitely not the peak hour, is it?

    The lack of wind power should have been compensated by solar power during the day in Spain on Monday, shouldn’t it?

    And if there was too much solar power, the frequency should have gone up, reasonably?

    But now it stood there fluctuating up and down until producers and transformer stations started to shut off.

    1. johan No.1

      More questions than answers thus but as a member of the electric underclass and with how in the winter cold Sweden is, I am quite interested in how this actually happened 😀

    2. Jan W

      I agree that there is reason to be worried. However, as mentioned above, I am a bit questioning about the timing.

      The incident will presumably be thoroughly investigated. If there are traces of sabotage, Russian or otherwise, there is surely no reason to hide it!?

      I understand your interest. Presumably, we agree that Sweden has had a tendency to be nonchalant about protecting the safety of its own citizens.

      1. johan No.1

        Never underestimate a Spaniard and to put a lid on it 😁

        But yes – this must be investigated now, it’s not the first time the entire power grid is about to collapse and it has often been weather-related (which it wasn’t) or a technical issue – which could be sabotage.

        The best sabotage one can carry out is the kind that is interpreted as an accident or natural error.

        But yes – we probably need some sort of further evidence on the matter maybe 😀😀

        1. Jan W

          It may not be a beta test. They may be desperate and using up everything they have in their arsenal here and now. My objection regarding timing may be based on a faulty analysis.

      1. johan No.1

        That’s what I’m saying, we are right in the middle of the window for the Russian wave of sabotage now, or is there any other explanation for why 10 mobile towers in different locations are affected?

        A disappointed Telia customer?

    4. CB500four

      It will be interesting to see what they come up with. The extent of the collapse probably has a lot to do with a large proportion of solar power, I suppose.
      However, it’s exciting to hear what happened first, was it a forest fire before the line fell down, or did the forest fire start at the same time. Usually, there isn’t that much forest under the power lines.

  36. 205

    🇺🇸‼️🇷🇺 Senator Lindsey Graham announces broad Senate support for new “bone-crushing” sanctions on Russia, with 72 colleagues backing a bill to impose tariffs up to 500% on nations buying Russian oil, gas, and key products, – Bloomberg

    (Maks_NAFO_FELLA)

    1. Lynx

      It is good if they can actually come up with something sensible that does not cause the USA to collapse on its own (with tariffs of 500% against India and China, it could be messy for the USA).

    2. johan No.1

      Silly question – does not 100% duty type mean that the product is no longer purchased?

      So 500% is mostly a mark that could just as well have been two million %?

      The margins are not very large in international competition, I think?

      1. Lynx

        Yes, that’s about right, it depends on what it is – with a 500% duty, it’s probably only malt whisky that can still be sold (it’s incredibly much better than their domestic one and besides, the buyer quickly gets drunk and buys more).

        So with a 500% duty, most things will probably stop being sold, one must assume.

      2. Westley Richard

        Stämmer, this is a political move where the average Joe thinks that 500% sounds good, Trump has already set the bar with his 147% against China.  

  37. Westley Richard

    USA’s National Security Adviser Mike Waltz is leaving his post, sources tell several American media outlets. Deputy adviser Alex Wong is also said to be resigning. The information has not been officially confirmed. Waltz has faced harsh criticism following the chat scandal in March, when he accidentally invited The Atlantic’s editor-in-chief to a Signal chat where government officials discussed an upcoming attack on Yemen. President Trump has consistently expressed support for Waltz after the scandal, calling him “a good man” who “has learned a lesson.” However, frustration has been brewing within the administration, and a source close to the White House called him “a damn idiot,” according to Politico.

    🇺🇸🤔 “Witkoff has told his inner circle that he does not want to take the job [national security adviser], and they do not expect him to be chosen,” sources close to Witkoff said, – CNN

    ‼️ Although, he can still take the job if Trump asks him about it directly.

    Not entirely unexpected that Waltz would be ousted.

  39. Westley Richard

    The one who buys oil from Iran cannot do business with the USA, says Donald Trump on Thursday evening after the announcement that the Iran talks are canceled. On Wednesday, the USA imposed new oil-related sanctions against Iran. Oil prices, which were trading down nearly 3 percent around noon, were back in the plus on Thursday evening. An Iranian official source told Reuters that the talks were canceled due to the actions of the USA. “The US sanctions against Iran during the nuclear talks do not make it easier for the parties to resolve the nuclear dispute through diplomacy,” the official told Reuters. At 7:30 pm, WTI oil was up 1 percent to around $58.50 per barrel.

    Convinced that China is buying oil from Iran, then it doesn’t matter how many percent of tariffs there are on Chinese goods.

    The question is whether India might also be buying Iranian oil.

    1. Westley Richard

      I have to step back on India, however, there are some other countries that were a bit unexpected.
      Many countries deal in Iranian oil, likely believing the U.S. will look the other way. In recent years, they have not been wrong. The Biden administration identified ports in 28 countries that sell Iranian crude oil and petroleum products, including not only China, the primary buyer of Iranian oil, but also Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, and Malaysia.
      https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/02/28/crushing-irans-oil-trade-the-path-to-maximum-pressure/

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