Ukraine daily briefing March 16, 2025

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Today apparently IT has other things to do, trying to have fun. The undersigned has certain limitations on weekends as mentioned earlier, so here comes a oneliner to open the comment field and then IT will later fill in with today’s dead Russians in this epic list exclusively posted here in the comment field first in the world, impossible to read anywhere else. Did you survive the Friday hangover, by the way? Here comes another pitcher of homemade sangria with passion fruit to the coffee table that disappeared very quickly.

Trump, Kursk, and the air going out of the EU dampen the mood a bit, and we have countless times seen Ukraine rev up, achieve results, only to back down again when the West deliberately sabotages for them, so the risk is not exactly small that we will see it again, and it’s five minutes to midnight.

However, what we are currently reading from UA is a bit rebellious, which makes the likelihood much higher that UA will not miss the opportunity this time. I don’t know how many more times we can go through this loop, actually, and since this is the real world, we will only know after it’s gone too far, right? Risk management is about identifying the risk and then mitigating it, and if you ask me, we in the West accept far too high a risk in this war. Moreover, now everyone knows that the worst that can happen is not that there will be a bad peace for Ukraine, which our leaders thought was the case up until sometime last autumn. Trump’s talk of peace is not credible, as everyone has understood.

Just a heads up for upcoming posts from a person in Ukraine – right now, I’m trying to understand how it felt/went at the beginning of the war because we MIGHT have to get used to the idea that we ourselves will be in that position soon. Who better to ask than someone who left their family to defend their country and still does so three years later. If anyone has questions, feel free to post in the thread. Regardless of whether it happens or not, it’s something we must plan for and start discussing as a country because if you want peace, you prepare for war, right?

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54 thoughts on “Ukraine daily briefing March 16, 2025”

  1. Wiiking

    Good morning,

    Quite quiet now with the visit of “friendly countries” leaders in Russia, both China and India are quite quiet now.

    Or are they flying under the radar?

    I suspect that the cards they thought Putin held have turned out to be postcards.

    1. Westley Richard

      The EU leader really went all in yesterday and threw off their jackets. Let’s hope that their meetings will result in something more than that.

    2. johan No.1

      A ceasefire now is high risk and the EU does not seem to oppose it strongly enough. Macron has said that he does not support it maybe, but more is needed and clearer.

      1. Bal

        It gives Ukraine and Europe 1 month to prepare for the complete abandonment by the USA. Alternatively, Russia also embarrasses itself by not holding the ceasefire.

        So, it could be two positive things.

      2. Lynx

        Is there even anything happening? Putin hasn’t really said yes, just “yes in principle but…” and then come up with absurd demands on Ukraine.

  3. Umlaut

    Maybe a question about what the civil society can do to boost morale. Not on a large scale, like arranging political support from outside, but more about the soft values and on a small scale.

  4. Wiiking

    Converting weeds into beautiful flowers is, as far as I know, not possible, and that is exactly where Russia is today. Russia is a weed that suffocates the beauty and does everything they can to disrupt what our ancestors sacrificed themselves for: peace, freedom, and democracy.

    Weeds must be pulled up by the roots.

  8. manteufeldt

    There is nothing indicating that the conflict will de-escalate. I have extensive experience working in the USA with American colleagues in the Midwest. Most only care about how little tax they will pay and how they can afford to educate their children. Preferably on just one income. Hence we now have Trump as president. Europe cannot base its security on how 20,000 votes turn out every fourth year in Wisconsin.

      1. Lasse W

        Yes, there is a risk if things start to significantly worsen for RU. Putin may then see escalation as a solution. New cards on the table that give him a way out. That’s what the pathology looks like.

    3. Westley Richard

      The Americans rarely see Europe or the EU as a great power, but rather view us as small countries in much the same way as when we look at individual states in the USA.

  9. manteufeldt

    I can’t quite understand how the US will be able to find a way forward from the current path. If the plan is that the goal is a mercantile hegemony where other countries should pay protection money to receive military support and free trade. States always have long-term horizons when it comes to security. Europe will not be able to buy American systems to the same extent after the advent of Trumpism. It will also lead to more expensive expenses for the US.

    1. Westley Richard

      Trump seems to have a very short-term perspective and seems to want to do as much as possible during his last 4 years.

      If the USA were to lose its European customers, their own defense costs will increase dramatically.

      A little off-topic when we are talking about defense costs, the American defense covers costs for healthcare and pensions, etc., for its veterans, which is included in their budget, while in Europe, we have this in a separate budget. Easy to forget when comparing defense costs in NATO.

      1. manteufeldt

        Exactly, veterans’ costs are included in that expense. Veterans are interesting, by the way, we fired a middle manager after he had been employed for nine months. He received three months’ salary. When I asked why, the answer was that he was a veteran and that it could become troublesome if we faced threats of discrimination from lawyers. Completely crazy.

      2. Pehr

        Good point regarding the cost of defense. 👍 Comparing apples to oranges is a bit misleading. However, we need to significantly increase defense spending in Europe.

  11. Lasse W

    UA is taking ground in the direction of Svatove in Luhansk. Kreminna is not too far away. I remember the battles in the forests of Kreminna. But UA never reached the city at that time.

  12. manteufeldt

    Russia is incredibly weak. That’s what the Americans have realized. They are terrified of Russia collapsing. The fact that Ukraine, which on paper is essentially a third world country militarily, is so embarrassing, it prevents the US from going all in. Biden didn’t do it, Trump has other reasons for not doing so. I don’t think Trump is a Russian asset. He is a populist and expresses the low awareness that unfortunately exists in the US. Americans today live in a large information bubble. All my colleagues are Catholics, own weapons, and earn well. They vote for the Republicans even if they were to nominate a monkey or a parrot as a candidate. Provided they would get lower taxes.

  13. Kaitsetahe

    Ok. The situation is serious, now we know that. Now we act.
    So, WHAT are you doing to increase your chances of survival in a possible upcoming war situation near the Nordic countries?
    A question that may sound prepper-nerd-silly, but now we don’t have time for such trivialities.

  14. Kaitsetahe

    Once again, is there any interest in a lecture on what to do in case of war?
    This is a serious question, if there is interest, I will arrange a venue and we’ll go for it.
    If so, it will be in VĂ€rmland.

  17. Pehr

    The Swede Christopher ForsbÀck has been fighting for Ukraine since 2022 and on Sunday morning he has just left the Kursk region, reports SvD.
    Ukraine “is doing the smart thing in this situation” and saving soldiers, he says on the phone to the newspaper. Ukraine has retreated but is neither cut off nor surrounded, says ForsbĂ€ck.
    He believes that Russia’s breakthrough in Kursk is due to the USA.
    – They blocked all intelligence information for us, which had devastating consequences, ForsbĂ€ck tells SvD.
    Previously, Ukraine’s forces could see exactly how the Russians were moving, but during the intelligence blackout, they could deploy forces and attack without warning, says the Swedish soldier.
    https://omni.se/a/VzBXjW

  18. jahojariaho

    Just have to repost Martti J. Kari who unfortunately passed away in 2023! Now they have added an English voice (nicer to listen to the Finnish version) but you can switch to Swedish subtitles! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kF9KretXqJw
    The point is that if you listen to his profound knowledge about ryzZen (which Kallas also has a part of), then the EU should do nothing but enter the war and show muscles if they really want to solve this and save democracy in the world. If we don’t do that, we will just continue to have problems, so according to me (based on the knowledge in the video), it is the only way to get some peace in the EU and the world. The slime gnomes will not stop with their hybrid war and will likely redevelop their nuclear power and other crap (Infect AI for propaganda purposes) allied with Musk. So as in poker: Time to go all in because when Ukraine has broken them down, the cost is minimal to solve the problem. If we don’t do that, there is a great risk that democracy is a word you can’t even find on Wikipedia. These idiots will win and rewrite history and erase everything democracy stands for if they succeed! Time to end the nightmare before it’s here!

  19. Kons

    What a comment field we have! Why do Waltz and Trump constantly argue about UA relinquishing land areas?? The world’s worst negotiators who give up everything and do it publicly as well?

    1. Analytikern

      I jump up again and go through my usual mantra. What does the US want to achieve? How urgent is Trump? What is Trump afraid of? This is something most fail completely at (most notably, the Cornu blogger). – Trump wants to strengthen Russia. It has nothing to do with Ukraine, but with China. Ukraine is just in the way and the problem must be removed, preferably yesterday.

      Read a bit yourselves, Google “Reverse Nixon,” in English often “Reverse Kissinger,” filter out hits that are pure left-wing/communist propaganda.

      Without properly pondering the goal for the US, it is impossible to understand. Trump is highly intelligent and would never invest in something that is not in line with the goal. However, one can never take Trump literally, as he can say anything that comes to mind. – Also read David Eberhard (paywall), but even the linked text provides the essential information: https://www.fokus.se/kronika/trumps-psykologiska-profil-paminner-om-torgforsaljning/

      (For 49 SEK you can also read the criticized Johan Wennström’s columns in Fokus, which are not as foolish as claimed or pro-Putin. This does not mean you should agree with him, but he advocates for a nuclear weapons program, also has other valid points and relevant warnings.)

      I have read and heard a bit more, so sometime during the week I will post a slightly longer entry on amateur Trumpology.

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