The level of commentators in the thread is starting to get high, which puts some pressure on these posts not to be too broad, but below is a post about our readiness to die, which may be received differently depending on how much life one still has in them, perhaps?
A circulating rumor, RUMINT, which I guess comes from UA opposition candidates, that the Trump administration contacted them to explore if they wanted to join forces and get rid of Zelensky.
This fits in time because suddenly ALL opposition candidates came out and gave their unconditional support to Zelensky.
Anyone still believing that Trump has a good plan for Ukraine and the EU 🤬
Another point worth highlighting is that Trump mentioned Moldova in his speech to Congress yesterday, and not positively, but very negatively. A bit like if the Prime Minister’s speech at the opening of the parliament included some talk about Idaho and their governor’s election. Moldova, on the other hand, is of high interest to Russia, as they were supposed to take down the country already.
If anyone still believes that Trump is not influenced by Russia 🤬
Ukraine began offensive operations on February 6th, as you know if you have read the posts – it was announced on my Bluesky after a push from Budanov so that the frontline commanders would start attacking.
So far, things are going well almost everywhere – Kursk, Kupiansk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
These are local offensives aimed at taking dominant terrain or gaining good UFAs, or perhaps reconnaissance battles?
RU defense is collapsing everywhere – in Kursk, there were two battalion attacks that cut through on paper 4-5 RU brigades in defense with competent task forces behind.
In Toretsk, it is Azov who is conducting an excellent battle in the town (the world’s best infantry someone!!!) and retakes the entire city within weeks – how about that 😲
In Pokrovsk, a number of UA brigades have carried out offensive operations at least in three locations, and RU is shaken.
As someone brilliantly wrote yesterday – the fastest way to end this war is probably if RU gives up and leaves Ukraine?
Considering how things are going for RU right now and that UA has started successful offensive operations, that option suddenly seems very achievable, provided Ukraine doesn’t run out of supplies.
Throughout an ENTIRE WAR, the USA has stopped Ukraine just when things started going well, all the time – pressures, halting of supplies, and then directly unfair methods like holding the mapping service for Storm Shadow hostage – or when they shut down Starlink – THROUGHOUT AN ENTIRE WAR, THEY HAVE DONE THIS.
Or stopped F-16s, Abrams, and Gripens. It’s not exactly the first time in this war that the USA says their weapons cannot be used against Russia, is it 🧐
So, Trump is doing exactly the same thing now as the USA has done throughout the war, but the difference is that he does everything openly in front of the media so we see it immediately, and then EU and Ukraine dare to oppose him. Why we didn’t oppose Biden back in 2022 is a question for historians to unravel – I guess that administration was simply smarter diplomatically and politically and used their leverage more smoothly.
So here we are again – Russia panicking, calling the USA, which is now Trump, and alternately threatening, begging, and painting doomsday scenarios.
Now these are rumors, but I roughly believe that the USA has now – stopped all supplies to Ukraine, even those in depots in Poland, stopped all information transfers to Ukraine, which apparently also makes it impossible to target THEIR weapons.
Not sure if this affects Storm Shadow, but perhaps F-16s, USA JDAMs, HIMARS, and Patriots?
But what we are seeing is another attempt to pull the rug out from under Ukraine when things start going well, that is undeniable.
Do you need more evidence that Trump is in no way better than Biden or the US administration? My opinion is that he is possibly even worse. However, the outcome doesn’t seem to be worse for the EU, and Ukraine has had enough. “The Art of the Deal” turned out to be a big elephant in a fragile glass house.
I see a lot of debaters to the right of center trying to nuance this now and then “don’t do Russia’s bidding, they want to divide the USA and the EU.”
“he only abuses me on a Friday when he’s been drinking and only if I answer back” – NO, there are situations where it’s time to push back, and that’s where we are now.
Why are we there now?
Ukraine is not infinitely patient, and as a country, a collapse will come suddenly, and when it does, they will be gone as a buffer against Russia for Europe, and a million unemployed soldiers will become Europe’s new unstoppable mafia.
The other thing is that by September 2025 at the latest, Russia will attack us in the EU in the Baltics PROVIDED they have the UA war under control.
Right now, they DO NOT have the UA war under control, and the EU seems to have understood this and started to take its damn responsibility.
This is not a drill, and September is not far away, it is now time to stand up!
Why do you think Sweden sent a battalion to the east and increased readiness?
Why do you think the whole of Europe has increased readiness?
Why do you think we are sending Gripens to Poland?
Why do you think exactly the whole of Europe is competing to support Ukraine the most right now?
We already know the answer because Ukraine has told us.
We are once again at the point where countries in the EU (maybe and probably not, but for the sake of argument…) will need to force their citizens to go to war and die.
You also have no choice – your representatives can now demand that you die.
All of a sudden, being violent, good at killing, able to withstand extreme pressure, and so on are what you want to see on your CV and not “social skills and ability to dialogue” or whatever it was they replaced the old mean policemen with, much to the joy of gang criminals.
As a soldier, you are expected to be better at killing than the enemy, and you are expected to be ready to die.
If you refuse to kill or choose to flee from certain death, you will face a penalty that in the past was execution by firing squad when desertion or “cowardice in battle” was something one was terrified of.
Often, it’s good to have strong cohesion in a country, to feel a sense of belonging and that the social bond is there.
We sometimes hear that Sweden was a “high-trust society,” for example – what does that mean?
The rearview mirror is always overly positive, and one has forgotten all the bad, but I believe that –
– a large part of our citizens did military service and considered it a privilege to defend the country of Sweden if needed. Even in the 90s when I did my military service as the last conscripted cohort or something before it became voluntary, we probably wouldn’t have hesitated for a second to go to war with Russia if necessary. In hindsight, our training was very tailored to how it would have actually looked, and I think we did well.
Anti-tank missiles, GRG, Strix, Strv-121/122, CV90, Gripen, submarines, and so on. The infantry bastards had a tendency to wait until we had passed by and then run up with anti-tank missiles to hit us from behind.
-As a citizen during the Cold War (and for a while after), one had a sense that no one would be allowed to attack Sweden. Then we had a loyalty to Finland.
Now it’s a bit divided –
The country of Sweden has politically handled this war excellently together with Denmark and Finland. We have committed to defending the Baltic states in the event of war to a large extent and take great responsibility for the Baltic Sea, which is the northern flank of the EU.
Not much more than our Swedish battalion guarding the EU’s eastern border right now (extremely simplified…).
Norway is a bit behind in support and should increase significantly – very much. The Nordic countries have solidly supported Ukraine and done more than many others, with Denmark at the forefront.
Compared to WW2 or our “neutrality” during the Cold War, it has been liberating to see this – it’s not often one can feel chest-swelling proud as a Swede, but that’s how it has been in this war.
Yes, in the 80s we practically had a war in our archipelago with the Soviet Union, and there was a very Russian-infiltrated politics culminating with the assassination of Olof Palme when he was considered a security risk for Sweden, which would justify a murder (in my opinion, we know what the Swedish legal system thinks). The fact is that the Baltic Sea region towards Sweden’s side was one of the hottest spots in the world at times, except for direct proxy wars.
The Soviet Union conducted active war preparations against Sweden, and the 80s were very turbulent, it was turbulent before and after as well but at a lower intensity. Sweden as a country needed to protect itself, and we had a “blue-brown” side in politics with the military, and then we had a counterbalance with S where they were heavily infiltrated, and V was completely on the Soviet side.
After the Palme assassination, two short-haired men knocked on Ingvar Carlsson’s bedroom window at Sagerska when he took office and waved friendly as he sat up in bed groggily – guess what message it sent to the prime minister about a month or two after the murder of the former prime minister and when S was absolutely terrified.
Jerry Martinger, a moderate local politician, thought he had found some irregularities regarding the Palme assassination that he wanted to raise and was absolutely destroyed by “the public”. All sorts of authorities stabbed him in the back one by one until he, who had been a happily married lawyer living in Täby with a brilliant career in the Moderate Party locally, ended up divorced, unemployable, and with no assets at the Enforcement Authority.
This is not something we want to return to at all, but we should probably stop being naive when it comes to Russian influence today.
Swedish Peace recently stated that Russia must be allowed to keep some of the annexed territories for us to have peace – it’s absolutely infuriating to read that from a peace organization before understanding that they are a party in the conflict and on Russia’s side 🤬
This is EXACTLY the line Trump is pushing, and it comes from the Russian security service.
The shutdown of Europe’s nuclear and coal power plants while we bought Russian gas that Greenpeace marketed as “clean energy gas” or whatever it was called is another highlight that was risky from a security policy perspective.
Environmental movements wanting to shut down military training grounds for a few frogs, remove Swedish cement production, and Russia needing to build RO-RO ports on Gotland are other things that are amusing. Or Russian “tourists” buying up plots or homes near our and Finland’s airbases, naval bases, and army bases. Or the Russian embassy in Stockholm potentially being able to hide a mechanized Russian battalion if they managed to figure out how to get it in.
Russia believed that the EU would be pacified by the energy weapon, and during the winter periods of 2022-2023, the number of technical failures in our nuclear power plants in the EU was at an enormous level. This is never acknowledged, but France had issues with cooling water, and we had technicians who forgot wrenches, right?
What wouldn’t hurt right now is a bit of political cohesion, which apart from around Ukraine and defense issues, is something our politicians have handled terribly. The opposition constantly screams for resignations, and the Moderates continue to do their hit-jobs for the business community.
However, the UA war has been handled EXCELLENTLY, 10/10.
-My pet peeve is still that if you accuse citizens long enough of not having culture, being unwanted, and at least being hateful, the willingness to die for the country will be less. I have received a tremendous amount of unjustified criticism for such a simple discussion that apparently is still a taboo.
Our military training should now focus on teaching our sons and daughters to kill other people in the most efficient way – that’s what our conscription aims for – to become good at killing other people.
Recruitment campaigns should revolve around that and not that one should have a good time and get some fresh air. You get that too, but only after you have killed other people.
Our soldiers should feel that they are a respected group in society – as a country, we should uplift them and what they do. The battalion stationed in eastern Baltic states is not praised much, but by September at the latest, they will be overrun if they are in the wrong place and Russia has control over the war in Ukraine (which they don’t have today).
In Israel, serving in the paratroopers is as prestigious in the job market as having completed a long education at Harvard, for example.
The willingness to defend largely comes from feeling a desire to protect one’s country, fellow human beings, family, and so on – NOT necessarily in that order.
Today in society, I can feel that we don’t have this in the same way as before, and you don’t get any prizes for guessing that Russia has worked actively to erode the social fabric, even though all attempts to discuss this are attacked quite harshly.
How many radical Islamists do you think are willing to die to save a wounded Salwan Momika twenty meters ahead (who is indeed murdered but for the sake of discussion…) – and how many electricity customers do you think are willing to defend a Green Party member?
Guess if when it’s time for war, the same things will be said again – just like Trump is doing now, our government will be accused of warmongering, and our soldiers of being bloodthirsty killers. Vietnam War anyone – Russian influence, the 60s.
That’s when it will show if ALL our citizens feel that we have COMMON values worth fighting for or not…
Will I, in the lower class, stand next to a Green Party member and be ready to forgive everything and let him be the decision-maker 😲
Throughout history, we have seen countries collapse in days and we have seen lions like the ones we now see in Ukraine, absolute lions. My guess is that it has a lot to do with how prepared a soldier is to fight for Ukraine, stopping Russian mechanized attack columns with Molotov cocktails and Kalashnikovs. (This particular combo is probably available in every criminal gang in Sweden so we are well prepared, actually 😀)
It is deeply ingrained in a country’s walls but it is not something to be taken for granted because it is something that a country and its representatives DESERVE, not something that can be demanded after mismanaging everything for a long time.
Exactly where we stand in this willingness to fight for one’s country in different countries in Europe is difficult to know, but a wild guess is that we were lucky that Russia first targeted Ukraine – absolutely lucky.
Last time it happened in 1939 – 1940, it didn’t go so well, but Ukraine is the one with poor soldiers and apparently we in the West are light years ahead according to all the discussions we’ve had on the subject.
So how will a Russian attack in September 2025 look (assuming they have the situation in Ukraine under control – this is crucial!)?
Many still believe that the Russian attack on Ukraine was terrible and doomed to fail, but they are greatly mistaken. Yes, I may have mocked them completely, but I do it with a purpose 😀
Russia had tied up the UA army in the east and during a military exercise, they built up along the borders with Ukraine. They convinced the West and Zelensky that mobilization would be seen as a provocation and lead to war, and they had bribed anyone they could reach.
Macron and Germany (not sure if it was Scholz or someone else who made the statement) guaranteed Ukraine that Russia would not attack – so deceived, or bought, they were.
A popular rumor is that the FSB stole most of the bribes that were never paid out, true or false is the question.
At the Southern front, you saw what happened when bribes were paid and the Russian spearhead rolled over Khakovka and Antonovsky around lunchtime on the day of the attack in a cloud of ahkp.
Even though there were scattered with bridges and channeling terrain as minefields with accompanying group-sized fire ambushes that should have been effective roadblocks.
Russia carried out a devastating missile rain and the artillery fire was obscene.
For example, all of Ukraine’s refineries were knocked out early in the war and the artillery fire was initially far beyond what UA could handle – 50,000 to 60,000 shells/day. We saw films where the defense endured days of constant artillery fire and one is quite exhausted after that unless buried alive.
Russian attack aircraft and ahkp were like swarms of locusts.
The airborne assault on Hostomel was significant and a dozen or so IL76s with battalions from the 76th GAAD from Pskov were in the air but had to turn back – do you think they shot down something/someone?
The runway was never secured as the airport was retaken by a mosaic of different soldiers and civilians who simply formed up and started fighting against the best Russia had.
1500 SOF had infiltrated Kiev and they dropped paratroopers over the city.
The citizens simply took up arms and as soon as a group armed themselves at the barracks, the bus went to the front lines and up to 90% died in defense at various points with channeling terrain – the buses were a death sentence and those who boarded them knew it.
The attack columns towards Kiev did not encounter much resistance BUT Putin had waited for the Olympics to end so the mud made them only able to travel on the main roads.
They started, if I understand correctly, driving off-road but then had to redirect onto the roads where Ukraine could cut the head and then they were stuck in the world’s biggest traffic jam – and then everything played out, they had sold fuel for alcohol, it was cold and wet, they couldn’t make decisions themselves, and so on.
Everything was preceded by sabotage and high-value targets were eliminated early on as many traitors in large numbers had sent the coordinates.
And not to forget amphibious warfare with landings where, however, Odessa was thwarted.
Russian artillery had information superiority and so on for quite a while and Russian observation drones were everywhere all the time.
It was Ukrainian marksmen who died in their foxholes that stopped everything.
Expect the same towards the Baltics –
-wave of sabotage in the weeks leading up throughout the EU
-demonstrations against war throughout the EU where peace movements, Palestinian movements, environmental movements, stop the minks, and save the wetlands join forces for peace in our time.
-political deadlock of Putin-controlled parties – anything that doesn’t need to be voted on in parliament goes through in different EU countries and to send troops to the Baltics, a vote must be taken.
-disinformation (like what we are hearing now from Trump) from various representatives and well-known individuals.
-blocks in the EU on anything that is not a simple majority.
-significant troop build-up of secondary units and/or NK or Chinese forces towards Finland and Poland to tie up troops – Poland states that they need their defense forces for national defense and Finland does the same.
-Russian Baltic Fleet fully deployed in the Baltic Sea – landing ships cruising along the territorial waters of all countries with water contact.
-Northern Fleet fully deployed and cruising around Norway.
-Putin et al. making promises of peace interspersed with threats and stating that China is the real threat, not them. In the end, no one can keep track of what day of the week it is.
-Trump accuses the EU of escalating everything and wanting war and that Russia wants to save the children.
-electric infrastructure knocked out, railways knocked out, explosions of weapon depots, and so on.
-large number of SOF conducting fire ambushes against the forces in the Baltics, artillery, and LV for example.
-also attacks against key personnel such as pilots, air traffic controllers, senior officers, and high-ranking politicians – here RU must choose their targets carefully but at least not the Baltics.
-a massive missile rain against the Baltics the night before the attack begins.
-frontline artillery starting during the night.
-advancing at dawn with 150,000 RU troops formed in mechanized units trained by veterans from the war.
-a drone cloud that is inferior to Ukraine’s but trying to copy it.
-they only have, at worst, thousands at the attack points who are bombed with FAB and drones and who have not yet experienced the war in 2025 – like our Swedish battalion, for example.
The purpose is to delay the Western advance in the Baltics so Putin succeeds in conquering NATO territory and then goes on the defensive – then over to NATO. I haven’t checked exactly which terrain they take, but if they can, they want to go on the defensive behind waterways, for example.
NATO must then decide if we should sacrifice our sons and daughters to RETAKE territory in eastern Baltics.
Now begins an ENORMOUS subversive operation with the aim of breaking NATO and the EU, and the worst thing that can happen to Putin is that he has to retreat to Russia again because the West will NEVER invade Russia.
The upside is enormous, NATO falls, the EU falls, countries are tied to Russia, and so on endlessly all the way to China and the other rogue states sitting on the fence, still in doubt.
The downside is that he loses his two army corps and has to retreat to Russia.
Does the EU have a huge stockpile of robots today to retaliate with that would cause more pain than Ukraine’s strategic drone warfare?
This assuming that Ukraine is manageable for Putin – which Trump is working hard to make happen, so this is the reality by September 2025 at the latest.
This is not a drill, and we have a weakened battalion in the forests of eastern Baltics that may have to take the full hit in September.
Damnark has now warned that we only have months left.
If you read this correctly, you understand just like I do that Putin can absolutely challenge NATO.
That he could invade Europe deeply is of course unreasonable – he CANNOT do that.
But if he manages to create chaos in NATO and the EU, more opportunities will arise, and at worst, he will have won over Serbia, Moldova, Hungary, and Slovakia completely on his side, and more countries choose to remain passive.
Romania and Bulgaria are not our most stable democracies, for example.
I thought this would come as early as November, but I guess that Kursk completely disrupted Putin’s schedule here and that he had to heavily rely on his strategic reserves thanks to Ukraine.
What Ukraine does for us can never be overstated.
If you liked the post, feel free to share it on your channels,
If you want a fun comment section that is really picking up steam and is no longer just me talking it up on Bluesky – johanno1.se.
I recommend everyone who still comments on Substack or Bluesky to switch over to that thread instead – then your grandchildren will read your historical archive and start liking you.
On Substack, you are very welcome to become paying subscribers, even those of you who already follow, and it’s great to see that some find it worth reading, appreciate all the work put into this, and took the step to subscribe 👍
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social
Then there are Swedish rescuers, the ones I have been in contact with who work quietly and deliver supplies to Ukraine. You don’t see them constantly on social media because they are instead working to support Ukraine.
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
NOTE: Those of you who do NOT want to allow automatic translation of your comments, please go to your profile page and set it.
Hover over your name at the top right, select edit profile, and you will then find the setting under the language settings heading.
I suggest that since this is johanno1.se, the update should be yellow like a yellow wall. In the comments, you can use a different color to highlight the admin.
Then I have tried with a yellow background for the main post, but I also let the same yellow be the background when the author comments (to make it consistent who the sender is). Comments at the highest level will be blue, while the rest will be white as before.
You may need to reload the page to see the changes.
I have reloaded the page but the main post is still white. The introductory comment is yellow and Johan’s comments are blue…
You need to clear the cache
Forgot about that… It’s fixed now though!
Update from 08.00 07.03.2025 on the Russian invasion
A total of 146 combat incidents were recorded during the past day.
#Kharkiv 4
#Kupyansk 2
#Lyman 16💥
#Siverskyi 1
#Kramatorsk 13💥↗️
#Toretsk 33💥💥↗️
#Pokrovsk 19
#Novopavlivka 5
#Huliaipil 5
#Orikhivsk 11💥↗️
#Kursk 32💥💥↗️
According to the updated information, the enemy carried out 89 airstrikes against Ukrainian units’ positions and populated areas yesterday, releasing 149 guided bombs and using 2,729 kamikaze drones to attack them. Additionally, more than 5,100 attacks were carried out, including 194 from multiple launch rocket systems.
During the past 24 hours, the joint forces’ air, robot forces, and artillery have struck 17 locations where personnel and equipment have been concentrated, as well as facilities for electronic warfare.
In the Kharkiv sector, our troops repelled four hostile attacks near Vovchansk.
Two attacks by occupiers took place in the Kupyansk sector yesterday. Ukrainian defense forces repelled hostile attacks near Zahryzove.
In the Liman sector, the enemy made 16 attacks. They attempted to advance in the areas of Ivanivka, Balka Zhuravka, Yampolivka, and towards Hryhorivka.
In the Siversky sector, the enemy attacked our defenders’ positions once near Bilohorivka.
In the Kramatorsk sector, 13 firefights were recorded in the areas of Chasiv Yar and towards Stupochka.
In the Toretsk sector, the enemy fired 33 times near Diliyivka, Krymske, Ozerne, Ozaryanivka, Leonidivka, and Toretsk.
In the Pokrovsk sector, Ukrainian defenders stopped 19 hostile attacks and offensives near Promin, Dacheske, Kotlyne, Nadiivka, Ulakly, and Andriivka.
In the Novopavlivka sector, Ukrainian defenders repelled five attacks against our troops’ positions near Kostiantynopol, Skudne, and Burlatske.
In the Huliaipil sector, the enemy fired five times in the areas of Pryvilne and Novosilka.
In the Orikhivsk sector, our defenders repelled 11 hostile attempts to advance in the areas of Mala Tokmachka, Mali Shcherbaky, Nesterianka, Kamianske, and Pyatikhatky.
No signs of hostile offensive activity were noted in the Prydniprovskyi sector.
In the operational zone in the Kursk region, Ukrainian armed forces repelled 32 Russian attacks in the past day. Additionally, the enemy carried out 27 air strikes with 35 guided bombs and fired 467 artillery pieces, including 26 from multiple launch rocket systems, at the Ukrainian troops’ positions and locations.
No signs of hostile offensive activity were noted in the Volyn and Polissya sectors.
Food for thought, it’s a shame that you can’t insert the images from the general staff’s report directly into the comment. It gets crowded with links. I mean, if Elon Musk (x supports 4 images in a comment) can do it, why not johanno1!?
😄 Can and can, as mentioned, it is a security risk to allow file uploads and we don’t really have the same budget as Musk (we have no budget at all) when it comes to developing something that is foolproof in that regard.
👍
Do you need more evidence that Trump is in no way better than Biden or the US administration, well, you have it now. My opinion is that he is possibly even worse. However, the outcome does not seem to be worse for the EU, and Ukraine has had enough. “The Art of the Deal” turned out to be a big elephant in a fragile glass house.
Had to check the calendar to make sure it was really Friday 🙃
Not in English and no promotion for Friday drinking.
No, I was also a bit disappointed. 😀
A break in reading to ponder. How are all these Ukrainian counterattacks you mention in Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and others reflected in the General Staff’s review of attacks in their respective sectors? Many times it seems intertextual that it’s only about Russian attacks. For example, today: “In the Toretsk sector, the enemy made 33 attacks near Diliyivka, Krymske, Ozerne, Ozaryanivka, Leonidivka, and Toretsk.”
It is reasonable that the AFU does not report its own attacks or troop movements regarding operational security. But at the same time, if one attacks and the enemy shoots back, is it counted as a hostile attack?
To what extent can one use the General Staff’s attack figures to also get a picture of Ukrainian counteroffensives?
Thank you johanno1 for this morning’s focus on cohesion. It is a central characteristic of a group and in a society. Without cohesion, we are not a society but a separate society. If one wants to try to destabilize a robust society, one should encourage division, which of course is found in the playbook of the Moscow Empire.
A Facebook friend who knows Ukraine well wrote about Trump’s conversation with the opposition, saying it was almost like a great comedy if it is true (which has now been confirmed by both opposition candidates).
This is because both were strongly anti-Putin when they were in power and both lost to Zelensky in the presidential election. Zelensky, who then pursued a more conciliatory line and wanted to resolve conflicts by negotiating with Putin.
Think about that. Trump chooses to try to divide Ukraine by siding with Putin and then approaching two opposition politicians known for being strongly hostile to Putin.
Result? Poroshenko and Tymoshenko have stated that of course there can be no question of any election in Ukraine until there is peace because elections cannot be held in wartime. And both have reiterated that peace requires robust security guarantees. Ukrainian democracy stands strong.
I believe this could prove significant. I am still pondering what I see and I am not done with Trump yet. But I am convinced that Trump is a person whose actions are characterized by everything having a price but nothing having value.
He is also an opportunist, and the combination of lack of character and opportunism means that he may well be attracted to the opportunities to make quick money on deals with Putin. If it requires concessions to Putin’s empire-building, it doesn’t matter as long as it doesn’t affect him or his buddies.
He thought Ukraine would fall and that Europe would bend when the USA sided with the Moscow Empire. But now he may be starting to realize that cozying up to Putin could backfire on him and become a costly affair. There is also growing discontent within the GOP, not least due to the antics of the madman Musk in various departments.
Everything is open now, and Trump continues for the time being to parrot Russian narratives. But I still see a glimmer of hope. Ukraine stands united, and if Europe continues in the direction we are heading now and shows unwavering support for Ukraine, while at the same time clearly distancing ourselves from the current US foreign policy, it may become more attractive for the opportunist Trump to change course.
Well written!
Trump has made a serious misjudgment of how strong Ukraine, and the support for Ukraine, is, the exact same mistake that Putin made when he decided to invade.
The question is whether Trump will back down or if he will push forward (it’s almost as if one wishes that he pushes forward until he is removed from office). A stubborn and disgruntled Trump who has been forced to back down may perhaps become a worse catastrophe in the long run. He seems to hold grudges against all who are against him (even though he is quick to forgive those whom he eventually manages to crush and make them kiss his feet).
Regardless, it is reassuring to see that he is facing resistance and that Europe, among others, is stepping forward!
The best one can hope for is perhaps that he focuses on domestic policy where he has his fans. Or that he changes policy so often that nothing ever gets implemented.
Trump’s whiplash diplomacy when it comes to tariffs is a disaster for companies that have any form of import or export and do not know which rules apply from day to day, but that is not understood by someone who has only dealt with real estate, properties rarely cross any borders.
Yes, I only meant the best for Ukraine, considering that the USA seems to be on its way down the drain.
Yes, it is unsettling that his personality also dictates his actions in an unpredictable way. But the type of person that I believe he is has no loyalty to anyone other than himself, or rather the image of himself. He could turn against Putin the moment he realizes it benefits him.
One could dream of erupting internal conflicts within the president’s inner circle, that’s for sure…
There seem to be a number of fairly fiery, egocentric, easily offended, and emotionally unstable individuals there. Imagine if one of them were to steal the spotlight as well…
Good that Porris and Tymo are backing up Z.
Thank you for a great post!
I’m waiting for Trump to start backing down on his project for Ukraine to back down. But apparently there was a press conference yesterday where Trump persisted that it still stands. But he doesn’t have Putin or Ukraine, including opposition leaders, on his side. The whole project is too loose around the edges. An ambition but nothing more than that.
He probably just thinks that the whole world should dance to his tune. When things don’t go his way, he will live in denial for a while before realizing that he is not almighty. The risk is that in anger, he will cause something even worse (than what he is already doing).
A thought. I believe Putin would have a hard time selling peace after the country has taken a more or less devastated 20% of Ukraine at the cost of a million dead and a weakened army, air force, and navy. How will he handle that in a peace agreement? Will he still be in control? It’s better to continue the war. It’s victory or death for a Russian. Putin has painted himself into a corner.
Believe the same. Ending the war on unfavorable terms is a high-risk project for Putin.
Believe me, he will never agree to anything that makes him appear as a loser unless he is forced to. Guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO or the EU, etc. will not be enough, nor will replacing Zelensky.
If Putin does not get to keep the parts of Ukraine that he now claims belong to Russia, or at least large parts of the territories, it will be unacceptable. Many in Russia are already upset because of approaching the main enemy, the USA. The narrative among many has been that Ukraine (and the EU) are essentially puppets controlled by the terrible USA. The USA and Europe have been portrayed as decadent Satanists and all sorts of other things among those who have been the main advocates for the war.
Many Russians will probably be satisfied with just having peace, but if Putin faces opposition from patriots, perhaps military personnel who feel betrayed, as well as the families of the deceased and disabled soldiers, he is in danger. If he is afraid to mobilize the people against him, that alternative would be much worse.
It will take time to change the attitude that the USA is the enemy, even if Putin would want that and allows domestic propaganda to run rampant. A quick peace where Russia withdraws is highly unlikely. What remains is a peace where they retain occupied territory, but on the other hand, Ukraine will not agree to that unless they are forced to, for example, through lack of support from the USA and Europe.
Trump will be forced to give up, or he will escalate and do something really foolish to force it. Unfortunately, he seems to lean towards the latter when he withdraws support, bans intelligence, etc. The next step would probably be to stop all weapons that contain American technology. The question is, does he dare and can he go further, or will he give up? If he gives up, could he suddenly change course and strongly support Ukraine instead? Or will he simply stop sending weapons and other aid and then watch, allowing us to buy as many weapons and ammunition as we want?
The interesting thing is that Putin has not approached the USA at all. He has exactly the same talking points as before. The one who has approached is only Trump, and as I said, I guess he thought it would benefit him and give him a deal.
A bit amusing that you bring up the Russian view of the USA.
There is a fine painting at the Hermitage where Peter the Great is sitting and planning military actions against Sweden, but it has been a long time since we were the great enemy. Since 1945, the USA has been the major threat and the Russians have been fed this narrative ever since.
It will be interesting to see how Putin handles Trump’s approaches towards the Russian public.
Things are going better for Ukraine in Ukraine, but in Kursk, it’s far from good. The Russians are advancing with wedges and threatening the only supply line available. They are now so close that Ukrainian vehicles are being taken out by Russian drones on that supply line. Russia naturally wants to take back Kursk to be able to focus on the fighting inside Ukraine, and right now they are making progress. The question is whether Ukraine can regain control and secure the supply line, or if they engage in delaying actions and are forced to retreat. Politically, it would be a heavy blow and used by the USA and Russia.
Yes, unfortunately they may eventually be forced to back out of Kursk. At the same time, they have proven that not even troops in Russia lead to any retaliation, and even if Russia regains the territory, it has shattered the image of Russia as invulnerable.
Sure, it would be a defeat if they are forced to leave, but if it is done to avoid unnecessary losses, it is still the right path to take, and if they can also cause significant losses to the Russians at the same time, it is still a long-term victory.
Kursk has tied up a lot of Russian troops and has been carried out on Russian soil, which means that it is Russian homes and Russian infrastructure that are being destroyed.
It should also have a psychological effect on the Russians.
Last night, Russia launched yet another massive attack on Ukraine, targeting residential buildings, civilian, energy, and gas infrastructure of #Ukraine. Explosions were heard in Kharkiv, Ternopil, Odesa, Ivano-Frankivsk, Sumy, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, and Khmelnytskyi regions.
Thank you for today’s post, which was very thought-provoking.
One important thing to avoid Johan’s scenario in September 2025 is to actually close the border to Russia. It will be sad that relatives cannot visit their family members in Finland, but it is a price that is not so high to pay compared to an escalating infiltration in the next six months. If Hungary does not close its borders, then the borders to Hungary must be closed. It worked well during the pandemic to close borders in the EU. If there is the will, it can be done excellently. Then there are some data cables in the Baltic Sea between Finland and Russia that may need a “anchor accident”?
Every exception is exploited by the Russians, now hold the line.
For those who follow Ukraine Matters, it was an interesting episode where, together with a Ukrainian officer, they went through the consequences of the USA stopping all support. Everything was manageable except for Patriot and Starlink, which are very important and no good alternatives are in place. Great episode!
https://youtu.be/pwp_5M61Lqw?si=XlXGXLidkVamI1Ya
👍
Good post Johan and what you write about cohesion in society is important.
I have watched with horror the developments in the world. In Brazil, it is now customary to be imprisoned after serving as president.
Things also got very dirty in the USA when Hillary and Trump ran their race for the presidency. Since then, there has been a lot of hatred from both sides with demands for former presidents or candidates to be imprisoned or even killed. We can probably agree that this hatred expressed by both sides was a contributing factor to the assassination attempt on Trump. An assassination attempt that in turn may have influenced Trump to become fantastic and irrational.
Unfortunately, in Sweden too, some have emerged who promote hatred as part of their strategies to promote themselves. But if we are going to keep hating moderates, socialists, the Sweden Democrats, gays, religious groups, vegans, meat-eaters, Tesla owners, the upper class, etc., we will have a hard time collectively defending our country.
Let’s hope that the external threat leads to a better climate of conversation in the country.
It’s time to close ranks.
Hear hear.
If one must hate, one can hate belonging to the lower class, I do.
I agree, it’s just a shame that an external threat is needed.
It is said that the best sides of human nature (cooperation, compassion, etc.) come out in crises and wars, that an external enemy bridges internal disagreements. Willingness to sacrifice as well. Regarding the testimony from the first days of the invasion. I hope this applies to our country as well. I remember seeing a glimpse of it when it went off on Drottninggatan (was in the car queue at Haga Norra when all emergency lights woke up at the same time). Had tasks that couldn’t wait, including picking up children, and saw people being kind and caring and helping each other (offering rides, showing the way, suggesting alternative communications, lending phones). There was a sense of solidarity with complete strangers. Covid SHOULD have been a similar experience, I can only say that many who worked in the ICU felt that we did not belong to the same species as the people outside of healthcare, did not live on the same planet. We were aliens. We had such diametrically opposed experiences and realities that communication sometimes did not feel meaningful. It was only those who had been there who understood. War – hopefully – gives the whole society a reality that is shared by all. One can hope. But I guess that those of us who TRY to understand are still partly aliens to those who have actually been in combat or to civilians who survived the bombings in the shelters. How could we be anything else. Experience kicks. And it’s the only thing that kicks.
Thank you for a fantastic amount of information and interesting thoughts. I also think a lot about the willingness and ability of Swedes to defend Sweden in case of an invasion. I did my military service in the late 80s and learned to lie and freeze behind a rock, waiting to rain fire and explosiveness on the Russian bastards if they dared to show themselves. It wasn’t fun or pleasant in any way, but completely obvious. It was just as obvious for all the other guys at that time. Those of us lying behind the rock had different backgrounds; some had barely finished primary school and saw the military service as a slightly different break from the monotonous toil at the factory, while others envisioned a bright future in the finance industry or academia. However, when we all walked around in the Swedish m/59 uniforms, such differences didn’t matter much. We were all there for the same reason – to defend Sweden in case the Russians decided to try something. I also believe that the Russians would have had a damn hard time if they had dared to show themselves in the 70s, 80s, or 90s.
So why was it so obvious to sacrifice a year of one’s life for something that might not even happen? I think we internalized two things from the beginning. One was the feeling that Sweden is a good country, worth defending. In order to get everyone to step up, it must also be a good country for everyone, regardless of circumstances, and I believe Sweden was and is that. The other is our inherited experience that Russia is completely unreliable and life-threatening. This is something that generations of Swedes experience and pass on to future generations. In the early 2000s, you could hear some people talk mockingly about “irrational fear of Russia,” as if it were a delusion on par with being afraid of monsters in the closet. However, I believe this fear of Russia has saved us as a country many times. It ensured that throughout the late 20th century, we had a defense that deterred Russia from attacking. It also prevented us from falling into the same trap as, for example, Germany and becoming dependent on Russian energy. We have always had the belief that the Russians are completely unreliable and that ultimately we can only rely on ourselves.
So how is the willingness to defend today? I believe it is fairly intact. We have problems with internal threats, such as gang criminals and naive politicians who, consciously or unconsciously, weaken our resilience through strange priorities where a single frog or house sparrow trumps investments that are completely fundamental for a functioning society. However, in a free and democratic country, we should be able to handle such issues. My opinion is that Sweden is a damn good country and that almost everyone who lives here realizes this and therefore values the country. As long as that is the case, the citizens will also defend Sweden, if only we are given the conditions to do so.
At that time, it was only the officers who dared to speak the truth.
Aim the barrel eastward, that’s where the enemy is, if I tell you to aim the barrel westward, it’s because the Russians are attacking us from behind.
It worked well from the 1600s up until about a week ago.
👍👍👍
Our booklets depicted the dimensioning enemy as “red” and for some strange reason, the vehicles always rolled from the right margin towards the left margin where the blue team was positioned.
The vehicles also had noticeably tortoise-like turrets while the helicopters resembled MI-8.
Our officers were clear that the dimensioning enemy played balalaikas and could possibly arrive on camels. We were puzzled about the camels (we were wrong!) but otherwise we were probably quite clear about how it could look.
Wasn’t there some purges at the Frunzenskaya quay after the plans with the camels were revealed?
Black magic 😳
?
Did you manage to log in?
I have now had a nice visit from my always confident colleague, we meet a couple of times a year and it is always a warm meeting. When he tells me that his 13-year-old daughter is a little worried about going to school alone because a Shahed fell down 200 meters from the house (picked up by EOD and did not detonate), my problems with teenage sons feel quite trivial…
Some of his reflections,
“you can expect a ton of shit in media but we are today doing exactly the same thing as three weeks ago”, unwaveringly confident! “No way US can force us to surrender to Putin but we pay in blood”
Both he and his wife were chirpingly happy about Trump’s meeting with the opposition and his attempt to get them to agree to new elections was a great idea, as you probably know, it went to hell for Trump.
Every time we meet, we hope the next meeting will take place in Kyiv
👍
👍🏻💪🏻!
Thank you Johan for this informative post. However, I hope that September will not turn out as you predicted. I sincerely hope that Ukraine can soon kick out the Muscovites!
Слава Україні! 🇸🇪 🫶 🇺🇦
Things are moving quickly in Kursk unfortunately. Russia has made a breakthrough. Hopefully, Ukraine can muster the strength to strike back, otherwise Russia will soon have retaken Kursk.
“Russia reportedly breaks through in Kursk Oblast; Ukraine hasn’t confirmed.
A rapid Russian advance south of Sudzha has been reported by multiple Ukrainian and Russian sources.”
https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3ljrznf6zb22s
Trump on TS
“Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely “pounding” Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED. To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late. Thank you!!!”
Look, finally, at last, a threat directed towards Russia!
Trump threatens Russia with sanctions writes NRK
Trump: – I am strongly considering large-scale sanctions against banks and customs towards Russia until we have a ceasefire, writes Trump on Truth Social. He urges the parties to come to the negotiating table.
Trump is starting to get impatient, but he is naive and doesn’t understand that Putin doesn’t care about any sanctions. They can always be circumvented in some way, and it’s about Mother Russia for Putin. The war is existential and sacred to him. He knows that the Russians can survive on turnips and cabbage as they always have. Trump has his logic. Putin has another.
What if he is so cunning that he first withdrew weapon deliveries and intelligence, and then in a week when Putin refuses to give in, he uses it as leverage to resume it again… 😄
Sure, Trump is known for being both cunning and smart 🐻
😂
I suspect that next week he will have forgotten what he did.
“What, have I stopped the weapons deliveries? No, that can’t be true!”
I would wish that Trump behaved towards Russia as he dares to do towards Hamas and the people in Gaza.
“Leave Ukraine or you will all die!”
We are relocating the Russian population while we renovate the country, much like when renovating a rental property.
To Greenland 😱…
😆😅🤣😂
🤣
Trump Siberian resort!
If Trump is involved, it must be something boundless. 🤔🤗
😂😂
Someone who thought it wouldn’t be the legendary and mythical FRIDAY DRINKING?
Now I have lowered my ambitions a bit – mentioned it a few posts ago and the English post is going because to spend a whole day working on it is out of the question for the Englishmen. They will simply have to continue living their poor lives and envy the Swedes.
Anyway, you can’t choose to skip FRIDAY DRINKING if Friday drinking has chosen you – it’s a connection stronger than titanium.
To early in the evening sip on a finger glass (way too much whiskey or rum in a coffee mug and you say you’re having an evening coffee to your better half) while surfing in here (and telling your better half that you’re looking at hotels for a romantic long weekend in France in a few months – far enough away to be forgotten) – is there anything better?
I don’t think so, and below are some hysterical movies that will make it hard for you to sleep later – insomnia warning.
Difficult not to kick off the party with a funny dog video 🤣🤣
I fell off the chair and hit my ankle on the sofa leg but it was worth it.
https://x.com/michellemaxwell/status/1897456785155637524?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
This guy is a bit braver than us regular folks, not sure if the fight with the deer was braver than this lion tamer 😲
https://x.com/enezator/status/1897974954391491046?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
It’s good Johan. You have noticed that your loyal followers have started Friday the way one should. A shot between 5 and 6 and then increase.
The only way to start Friday ✊
The second one can almost be equated to Trump showing up at Cornu!
I don’t know if this qualifies… but, I placed an order and accidentally wrote ONE digit wrong…. my package ended up in … Gällivare??!! and I live in Karlstad….
So, should I take the car and go there to pick up my package, or wait one to two weeks before it is returned to the sender and hopefully eventually arrives….?
Det är väl kul att se sig om hör i Sverige? Take a road trip!
Oops, that was a major mistake 😲
County road 45 goes straight there 👍🏻.
FailArmy is always a classic….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uxAMobOJfY
😅😆
Hysterically fun 🤣🤣
Barbie Jeep Racing is absolutely wonderfully crazy…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Sw_8rbrqfg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jy79xik0C5s
Jädrar 😲
Box car crashes are always fun…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptSMzOf2rbc
Things you SHOULD NOT do… (especially not on a Friday night…)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dng-DzcEa-o
Oops, no, never on a Friday – I’m quite safe then as I never learned how to ride a bike.
NHL meets Downhill…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsIT6iU1DJg
I didn’t even know that sport existed – very violent on ice 😲
Time for the “after-meal beer”… 😁
Is it as good as the shower beer, maybe one should start with one of those too 😀
Always good stuff with a beer after dinner! There will be some whiskey too… (And PS)
Very good – Friday binge drinking is so much more than just pouring a lot of alcohol into oneself, it is a lifestyle with a lot of finesse and tradition that one carries with a straight back ✊
Ps, old hard rock, beer, and a little buzz… And when you’re tired – bed and sleep in tomorrow! At least that’s what I need in my case!
Now Kaitsehahe has posted hysterically funny videos that made me spray rum through my nose, and Foolse is traditional and a proud Friday drinker, but here come the Friday pandas stumbling around 🤣🤣
https://x.com/_wildclips/status/1897665285211005407?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
If you survived the laughter attack from the above video, the nail in the coffin is guaranteed here – do you think he survived 😲
https://x.com/nocontextbrits/status/1898043522273460397?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
In the West, we tested LSD soldiers – RU runs this as standard.
https://x.com/i_w_m/status/1840788559235604832?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The ultimate aging shock besides when you see the TV anchors in the news and current affairs go and become ancient is probably this one, we are not getting any younger 😲
https://x.com/bgatesisapyscho/status/1840991138217369861?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Best of Internet
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhcGrYNSszI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z45Vd9slWw
Alrajt, one more but now the limit for how hard one can go out during a Friday night is reached, but it’s the first Friday in March and all the people from Skåne are at home with stomach aches after their princess cake yesterday, blown away by the bakery that managed to introduce the holiday.
Japan is constantly evolving 😲
https://x.com/uncledoomer/status/1839681050026422628?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Is that the Japanese attempt to appease the Americans to avoid 50% in tariff fees?
Isn’t the first Tuesday in March Småland’s national day?
I tried skipping the booze a few Fridays ago. I won’t do that again. Friday without alcohol is a completely failed combination. One should be very careful with such experiments.
The combination Japanese banjo is clearly better.
Oops, brave anyway!
It was truly a shaking experience.
I hope one doesn’t have to experience it oneself.
Viva la Finland!
https://youtu.be/28__O2Ngc74?si=QhYLR1BfPGofV_ba
We should be so grateful for our invaluable brother people (and for being a solid barrier between us and the total darkness).
👍
Sätter sig direkt i skallen…
“…bathe, bathe, bathe, sauna…”
Perkeleee!
I haven’t heard the other contributions, but I don’t think it will win because the winning contribution must be devoid of humor and in English. These have a good balance between humor, good production, and earworms 👍
Rounding off with this (alien?) gentleman…
https://www.youtube.com/@ImadMagician
USA does not want to participate in exercises in Europe anymore. They are probably afraid of getting beaten badly.
I found an interesting feature from DW that I want to share here.
https://youtu.be/Ua3cSN-x6F4?si=d-NagOkUeEya0WbN
A shoutout regarding Friday’s binge drinking.
ABBA and T. Rex, if you haven’t listened to them in a while, work very well.
Thank you very much Johan! Very good and interesting and of course frightening. Is it the coffee grounds that indicate that it suits Putin well to attack the Baltics in September? Is it enough with Putin for peace in the next month to want to challenge/attack already in September? Mette had info about 2 months, but some have talked about it taking a few years before Russia has built up sufficient strength?
Jättesaltint,
USA is helping RU with target selection.
I don’t really believe in this
Are you living for the weekend party?
It’s full speed ahead here