Ukraine daily update February 12, 2025

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Update

Snow leopards

I think this sounds a bit more like Trump, to be honest, but we’ll have to wait and see. Still don’t want to predict in that darn swamp because he is completely unpredictable…

But this is exciting – a proposal for a sharp lend-lease act from the USA, at least David D is jumping up and down about it, “victory weapons” were the funniest this year 🤣

And now The Telegraph reports that Trump’s original peace plan is on hold – how they know that is beyond me 🧐

What I believe we can confirm is that everything is in flux right now, which also means that the West/Trump has not reached an agreement with Putin on the next step, forcing Ukraine into it – I think.

This means that Putin’s last trembling straw has burned up just as he was about to grasp it with his claw-like black fingers.

And it means that Putin will try something other than increasing pressure in Ukraine – for him, the status quo in Ukraine is acceptable for now, provided he can cause trouble elsewhere.

So the West should be extremely vigilant from now on, that’s my assessment.

More sabotage is likely, and testing NATO, for example, as we discussed yesterday.

They can ramp up in Africa significantly, and they probably haven’t given up on the Middle East either, even though things haven’t gone well so far, according to both Hamas and Hezbollah.

The West should think like JEF in the Baltic Sea and just stay alert.

Denmark – the country that, unlike everyone else, didn’t record surplus equipment at above the new price but actually paid other countries to send equipment, like Bulgaria, and then bought equipment on the open market and sent it to Ukraine, has also decided to now inspect all oil tankers in the shadow fleet.

That sounds completely natural, but for three years it has been avoided like the plague, and the EU has even allowed the shadow fleet to dock in our ports and sell Russian dirty oil to us.

Denmark lacks integrity and courage, I must admit, and they are already leading in support for Ukraine. Rarely have I thought this way about the beer drinkers and sausage eaters before, and in 1940 things didn’t go so well for them – congratulations 👍

What do you think the result of the inspections will be? Probably resulting in a ban on driving, of course, for all these ships are an environmental disaster with sails.

Ukraine has confirmed something absolutely sensational – they have shot down the FAB bombs themselves in flight. These bombs are supposed to be impossible to shoot down, but not for the technology conqueror UA.

Another technological leap, but the simplest way is of course to shoot down the drones.

Ukraine has some kind of drone that is completely invisible on Russian radar and other equipment, so it must be seen with the naked eye and shot down with small arms, which the Russians are incapable of – partly because they are half-blind and then they can’t aim properly.

My guess is that by 2025 Ukraine will have a technological edge – after that, RU with China’s indirect and direct help will have caught up, and there is a limit to how much one can develop.

Lately, we’ve heard about – dracarys, EW weapons that have been too effective, undetectable drones, laser weapons, FAB conquerors, new cool mines, autonomous weapon stations, and an increasingly violent drone weapon.

I laughed endlessly when in 2022 I predicted that UA would attach 155mm grenades to the drones and drop them vertically on RU – who’s laughing now 🧐

Their long-range drones are just about reaching RU’s level, but UA has also significantly modernized its fleet, especially its IFVs and APCs, through the REMO program.

Soldiers’ skills are another area, and when you read about how they were like shepherds with the North Korean SOF they captured, everyone realizes that they have reached wizard level, and even the Home Guard has its own SOF units today.

With the arrival of aviation, the final puzzle piece is in place, and now it’s time to strike (kill the Russian bastards) while the iron is hot.

We haven’t seen amphibious warfare or airborne landings yet, but UA has quietly amassed a large number of helicopters 🧐

Sitting and looking at the fronts, north of Kupiansk where RU crossed the Oskil, Ukraine has deployed a whole mechanized brigade 🤩

I’ve always thought that the attacking vector is high-risk, and it will be rolled over when Ukraine addresses it, and we’re probably not far from that. A drone unit and a mechanized brigade should go a long way.

The Russians have weakened somewhere here, but I can’t find it – if I had to guess, they weakened at the Southern front because that offensive never got started, right?

At the Dnieper, the 76th GAAD is gone, which is positive.

The focus points besides Kursk are Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk. Virtually the rest of the VDV is at Chasiv Yar.

It seems that Northern Luhansk has stalled, and there Ukraine might be able to turn the tide?

Apparently, Ukraine has also fought in Siversk?

The Dnieper is certainly weakened, but there UA needs to carry out an absolutely epic pre-attack before crossing, but with today’s weapons – JDAMs, Himars, drones, and Storm Shadow, I guess they can clear out a battalion defense pretty quickly today.

Then, if they choose the right place – which is a bit of a hallmark with the Dnieper, the assault forces must move onto the highway and have two roads to choose from to reach the bridgehead.

UA then places their FPV screen over the roads and lays distance mines.

The Dnieper is excellent for this type of battle, and then they can carry out raids against all rear functions along the shores down to Crimea.

It’s a bit exhilarating to write, but just like with the strategic drone warfare, my strong assessment is that we have only seen the beginning so far 😁

There is more to come, and a LOT more.

What I can say with certainty is that UA today masters – battalion attacks, breakthrough of minefields/defense lines, mechanized warfare, amphib

The internet bill is one big scam and so is the tax, which would instantly cut the bill in half if it were removed. In most countries I’ve lived in, the internet bill has been a fixed amount per month, like a couple of hundred bucks – not three thousand!

If we are to comment on the school shooting, one of the victims was a mother who was a single parent with three children under 18 – good grief 😐

Otherwise, the media and opposition have completely politicized the event now, which is very sad – like vultures circling over a carcass.

I have a post in the works about the high pitch in politics right now, I think it’s irresponsible.

It’s quite funny, and a bit of room for thought, that Putin has understood that Russians like Trump more than him, so the media has been ordered to speak negatively about Trump 😀

You can rest assured that there will be offensive operations, and I am extremely curious to see the aftermath of the peace meeting and what is communicated outward.

The 2023 NATO meeting was a low point where Zelensky was called ungrateful, Ben Wallace learned the hard way and got fired in the UK.

As usual, if you liked the post, feel free to share it on your channels and if you want to – join in and comment on johanno1.se

Now we are in a period where we can write again, but time is the limiting factor – every day I feel like I could write three times as much and still not have time to report on everything, which means that a lot is happening.

I have previously mentioned that 2025 will be the most important year in our lifetime, and it seems to hold true.

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41 thoughts on “Ukraine daily update February 12, 2025”

  1. MatsExtrude

    Thank you for the wall!

    It definitely looks better for Ukraine now. Difficult to assess whether it is Ukraine that has managed to rally, or if it is the Russians who have finally reached their peak. Hoping that it is both options because then things could really escalate.

    Hoping that Denmark takes a firm stand and leads the way so the rest of us (Sweden) dare to follow!

    Regarding electricity, there seem to be a lot of outages now. Just in the last few days, over 16,000 residents of Stockholm were without power for a few hours, Stockholm Central Station was completely at a standstill, also due to power failures. Coincidence or the Russians?

    1. johan No.1

      Sure thing – everything is always relative in the power dynamics 😀

      It could be the Russians who, with the help of chance, happen to succeed every now and then?
      I believe the Russians are much more active than we want to believe

  3. MatsExtrude

    “GUR hacked the Russian giant ‘Gazstroyprom’. On February 7-8, cyber experts attacked the main contractor of ‘Gazprom’ and 22 other companies that service the Russian oil and gas infrastructure. 120 servers, 2 million gigabytes of documentation, and more than 10 thousand computers were destroyed. All systems were stopped, and the losses could reach hundreds of millions of dollars.”

  4. Umlaut

    Denmark and Finland do not seem afraid to show where the cupboard should stand, they seem to have understood that the Russians only respect “might makes right”. Are the rust tanks now starting to pass through Swedish territorial waters? Although it may not be physically possible.

  5. MatsExtrude

    Trump on the release of the teacher who has been imprisoned in Russia:

    ❗️”I hope this is the beginning of a relationship where we can end this war,” Trump said of Mark Fogel’s freeing. Later, Trump hosted the freed teacher at the White House: “This could be a big part of ending the war with Ukraine. We appreciate what President Putin has done.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lhxnomp5n22z

    “Trump praises Putin for US teacher’s release, says it could help end Russia-Ukraine war. “There’s good will in terms of the war,” Trump said when asked if Marc Fogel’s release from Russian prison could be a step toward a peace deal in Ukraine.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3lhxnpeuydc24
    https://kyivindependent.com/trump-praises-putin-for-fogel-release-says-it-could-help-end-russias-war/

    Trump refuses to disclose what the Russians have received in exchange. “Not much,” he responds to the question. Today, the ruble starts to surge, USD against the ruble is currently 95.35, up 2.2% since yesterday.

    3. johan No.1

      It feels like it’s all set up for image.
      RU apparently fired a swarm of robots towards Kiev as a thank you?

      Praising Putin when Putin’s TV is showing movies with his wife naked is embarrassing.

      1. Umlaut

        To get an American home, good TV for the home audience. The Russian behaves like a Russian in an obscure remote country in Europe, boring TV that doesn’t generate money or voters. He can certainly scrap the voters, since 47 cannot be re-elected [for now], but the ego probably demands that his own people cheer and praise 47 as the new Messiah.

    2. Lynx

      The price for the prisoner exchange maybe? Then again, it would be interesting to know how large the steel export Ukraine has to the USA…

  10. MatsExtrude

    “Ukraina kommer inte att återvända till gränserna från 1991, det är orealistiskt,” – Hegseth
    🤔 Han tillade att USA inte anser att Ukrainas anslutning till NATO är ett realistiskt resultat av en diplomatisk lösning på kriget.
    🇺🇸 USA anser att konflikten i Ukraina har nått en “kritisk fas”, sade han.”

  11. MatsExtrude

    Britain has allocated a £150 million military aid package to 🇺🇦Ukraine, which will include tanks, artillery, missiles and other types of weapons, as well as contracts for the maintenance of previously delivered equipment to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

    1. Mats

      A bit unclear how Trump thinks he will gain access to the minerals in Ukraine with these statements that imply the US is backing out of Europe and no longer wants to support Ukraine.

      Unfortunately, Europe does not have the ability to replace all military support to Ukraine. Patriot systems, F16s, Himars, and much more. Hopefully, Ukraine and Europe will still be able to purchase equipment?

      I wonder how satisfied Finland and Denmark are with their F35 decision and Sweden with its Patriot investment?

      Contrary to this, Sweden stated that the absolute highest priority for the government is support for Ukraine. I guess that at least Finland, Denmark, Poland, and the Baltics think the same way!

      https://omni.se/09-00-ministern-lagger-fram-malen-for-utrikespolitiken/a/Eyk4r2

      1. MatsExtrude

        Has difficulty seeing that Trump would stop us from buying war material, it’s probably too good of a deal. IF he actually does it, we will know whose side he is actually on.

    2. johan No.1

      Not satisfied at all right now.

      Want to wait until we have the full picture but now is when the EU must rise.

      If we don’t do that, it’s a critical situation.

    3. N Eklund

      We would have needed to allocate at least 50 billion SEK more per year since 2014 to our defense.

      Listening tip: the latest episode of Hotspot “KGB and the useful idiots in Sweden” with Bo Theutenberg

  13. Lynx

    Hm, can’t post. Being an idiot, I’ll try once more, without a link.

    Regarding the steel tariffs, number 47 has thus removed all exceptions and special solutions for all countries. The question is how this affects Ukraine.

    I googled steel import figures for all steel that the USA imports, and it turns out that Ukraine is very low on the list. So the tariff probably won’t have much significance for them. Ukraine being included when all exceptions were lifted may look bad, but it’s probably peanuts.

  15. Peter Den Större

    Can Trump’s negative attitude towards the future of Ukraine be a way to finally get tired Europe to come together for something common? DT still believes, with some justification, that we mostly just talk and drag our feet. It would be in line with his threat to leave NATO to get Europe to open the purse.

    1. johan No.1

      Kan nog bli konsekvensen men absolut inte Trumps avsikt 😀

      This can probably be the consequence but absolutely not Trump’s intention 😀

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