Many who support Ukraine are pleased with the US attack on the energy facilities in Iran.
Partly, the threat of them acquiring nuclear weapons has been averted, which could threaten not only Israel but also many other countries, and partly as a supporter of Ukraine, one is especially pleased as it is a setback for Russia.
One must not forget that for the Iranian population, this could lead to liberation if the current regime falls, and then it could be a step towards a more democratic and open society, which would also be very positive.
Regarding the war in Ukraine, I argue that it is, on the contrary, a great advantage for Russia, but let’s start at the other end:
What are the disadvantages for Russia?
Geopolitically, this could lead to losing most of its influence in the region, especially if Iran were to fall completely. In the short term, it does not have much significance for the war in Ukraine, but of course, it is something that Russia probably wants to avoid.
Another disadvantage is that Russia risks missing out on deliveries of important components needed for the production of Shaheds.
They also import Mohajer-6 drones and some other equipment.
The war in Iran will likely result in certain facilities being knocked out, but if nothing else, Iran will probably need everything they can produce themselves in the war.
There are, of course, no exact figures, but there are estimates that Russia has imported military components, etc., for up to 1.5 billion USD so far.
Shaheds are used by Russia to terrorize the Ukrainian population. Admittedly, they sometimes manage to hit important infrastructure, energy production, and industries.
It affects Ukraine negatively in many ways, but perhaps mainly through killed and injured civilians. In the long run, it could affect the population and make them war-weary and eventually willing to accept unfavorable peace conditions. So far, it has probably been the opposite; the Ukrainian population stands more united than ever, and it has rather shown the cruelty that Russia is capable of and what it could mean if they were forced to give up.
Shaheds probably do not contribute to military successes for Russia; they are not even used at the front.
What are the advantages for Russia?
I have just diminished the significance of Shaheds, but we can start with them anyway.
Regarding Shaheds, it is not impossible that Russia can now convince Iran to also hand over technology so that Russia can manufacture all components themselves in exchange for weapon deliveries.
So, Russia has the opportunity to become completely self-sufficient (apart from the electronics already imported from China, of course) and they could also offer Iran to build Shaheds for them.
But as you have probably already figured out, the major advantage is, of course, economic and depends on rising oil prices.
Already when Israel attacked Iran, the price rose from around 60 USD/barrel to over 70. Many now fear that it could reach as high as 100 USD.
But how much does this mean for Russia?
If the price reaches between 90-100, it represents a significantly increased income for Russia. It could amount to between 3-6 billion USD per month, approximately 20-40 billion USD in the coming six months if prices were to remain at that level.
Russia is in an economic crisis, even though they present figures outwardly that rather indicate an upturn, showing growth in GDP, a growth stemming from a war industry producing military equipment that is then used in Ukraine.
An addition of 20-40 billion USD is a huge amount of money if it is allocated to their war industry.
It is estimated to be around 100-150 billion per year.
It is enough, for example, to pay and equip about 250,000 soldiers.
It is enough to purchase quantities of equipment and grenades from North Korea.
It is enough to significantly expand the factories producing Shaheds.
If the war in Iran becomes protracted, it could mean an extra 40-80 billion USD per year for Russia. Compare that to the estimate that Russia has bought equipment from Iran for about 1.5 billion USD.
So, Russia earns a tremendous amount of money from the war in Iran due to the increased oil prices, which unfortunately is a major disadvantage for Ukraine.
There are various estimates, but according to Support Tracker, the EU and the USA together have donated about 312 billion USD to Ukraine since the war started, with Europe accounting for 156.
The war has been going on for almost 3.5 years, which means that Europe has donated about 40-50 billion USD per year.
The likelihood is high that the USA will not donate more to Ukraine.
So, Europe must almost double its contribution to compensate for the USA, and then we will still only give slightly more than what corresponds to Russia’s income increase due to higher oil prices.
The war in Ukraine has turned into a war of attrition where the economy is one of the most important factors, and now Russia has received a significant income increase.
Tomorrow we will see exactly how much when we can see the current oil prices.
For all involved, we must hope that the war in Iran ends as soon as possible, even though I fear it will be prolonged.
Until then, the only thing we can do is increase our support for Ukraine.
SLAVA UKRAINI
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MXT why can’t I log in to my Chromebook? Ends up in a loop where the login screen remains despite successful login.
This is written on my already logged-in phone.
I have actually experienced it myself in Chrome, but I don’t have a really good answer why.
It seems like Chrome’s cache management gets stuck and then doesn’t get out of it for a while.
I have been using a plugin that is meant to speed up the website and I suspect that might be the cause, it’s turned off now.
You could try clearing the browser cache to see if it helps.
Had issues earlier this week while I was traveling, but clearing the cache helped
No success with any of the tips.
Ouch, if you’ve cleared the cache and still can’t get in, I have no idea what it could be. It’s difficult to troubleshoot when it only happens occasionally, but I’ll see what I can do.
If you have the possibility, maybe you could try another browser on the device?
If that works, at least we know the problem is related to Chrome.
You can also try running the website in incognito mode to ignore any old haunting cookies.
Incognito worked. Thanks for the tip.
I wonder if he will get anything out of the visit.. Perhaps a deal regarding Shahed production in exchange for support?
“Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi says he’s heading to Moscow today and will meet with Putin tomorrow morning. He added that Iran continues to receive messages from the U.S. through various channels and responds to them when necessary.”
https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3ls6tg5xe5k27
Since Johan No.1 already knows that Hormuz will be blocked and then Houti will probably do what they can, oil and world trade will start to be disrupted (again…).
I have guessed that Russia is not eager for Iran to fall if we are to interpret MAGA’s abyssal screams.
Syria was a tough blow, and if Iran falls, MENA will be cleared of Russian influence.
It could certainly push China closer to war as well, which Russia wants.
Above all, the attack solves nothing unless the regime falls because both Russia and North Korea will probably give Iran what it wants soon.
However, I believe the decision is correct – how much war should a country be allowed to wage without consequences?
Iran has been assisting Russia for three years in killing Ukrainians.
And they have created and controlled Hamas + Hezbollah and been behind much in Syria.
They are the root of endless evil and it is definitely time to take them down.
War is unpredictable, and we never know what will happen, but we can assume they have been working on developing nuclear weapons.
How do you think it would have ended?
Iran makes a move against Israel, which responds with five, or Iran gets something off the ground so it becomes existential, and then 4-5 capitals in MENA are gone hours later.
When I read on Wikipedia, I thought Trump would get away with this because nuclear weapons are involved as long as he doesn’t escalate it on his own.
However, he will probably demand it from Congress when the first military bases are bombed 😀
You CANNOT trust Tulsi Gabbard – she is pro-Russian.
So, Trump or Israel have not started the war – Iran did that a long time ago, but now the consequences have arrived.
However, the USA has not previously been directly involved in the war, now they are. So the USA has started a war against Iran (although of course one should rather see it as a special military operation).
Iran warned that the USA would be seen as legitimate targets if it sided with Israel. Now the USA did just that, so from that perspective, the bombings have rather increased the threat to American interests than the other way around.
No one seems to believe that Iran has any nuclear weapons ready for a long time, so it’s just a pretext.
If Iran attacks US bases, it shouldn’t be a problem for Trump to escalate, and then he can also use it as “evidence” that it was right to attack from the beginning.
Regardless, he is likely to get away with it because he has the majority in Congress on his side, and even if there are many who actually disagree with what he did, I don’t think any Republicans want to bring him down. That kind of turmoil is not wanted at this point.
Well, I think he was a bit reluctant at first, but I believe he then realized the benefits for himself.
-Prove that he is not a TACO
-Raise the oil price to a level that benefits both the USA and Russia.
-Show who’s in charge by keeping the Democrats out of the information flow.
-Demonstrate that HE can send the world’s largest army against anyone who doesn’t yield to his threats.
-Show MAGA that violence can pay off.
-Show the Jews of the USA that he is worth investing in.
When Iran then attacks an American base, he gains full confidence in Congress, and then it’s the end of the mullet regime.
A slightly worrying thing is that in attacks on their bases, he can invoke Article 5, and the countries that are not on board at that time will also not receive American help in the event of a Russian attack.
How close were those nuclear weapons really? In my feed, information swished by claiming to be from the hacker group anonymous, stating that just a few days ago there was significant “seismic” activity registered in Iran that did not coincide with any known attack. I wonder if there is a place where one can verify such information?
The USA themselves said it wasn’t so close, within three years they thought.
I seem to have heard this about three years ago in this context, a bit like “two weeks” to me.
Yes, it is truly worrying if oil prices rise and remain at a high level. At the same time, one of Russia’s transport routes is also being negatively affected – Girkin is concerned about “the southern corridor,” and it is always reassuring when he is worried. A significant portion of Russia’s exports to India seems to go that way.
https://x.com/VolodyaTretyak/status/1933884682980020506
Israel bombed Rasht a few days ago; it is a transshipment point for goods shipped out through the port of Bandar Anzali.
https://x.com/libphil_/status/1935870314488922527
A new railway line between Rasht and Bandar Anzali was inaugurated as recently as last year: https://www.railjournal.com/passenger/main-line/rasht-bandar-e-anzali-line-opens-in-ira
Then we have a few more positive effects for Ukraine!
China is unusually quiet…. They are probably waiting to see what goodies come out of the mess, and how this can be used to their advantage.
Ukraine has received light aircraft, SHARK, from a Czech-Slovak company for drone combat. https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3ls6uwfovck2p
A SLIGHTLY less tired take (enough with Bildt, Eliasson, Gad, Parsi-brushes, parts of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Swedish Peace, any DN/SvD/PS journalists, and others with their tired takes):
The USA’s nightly adventures are GOOD or at worst neutral for Ukraine.
(It’s GOOD for the rest of the world including Sweden – actually for everyone except the mullahs and their allies – like the above gang and Hamas-Houthi-Hizbollah.
But one COULD argue analogously that it’s bad for Sweden because the far-left/identity politics could gain some momentum?
Parts of the environmental movement have condemned support for UA by saying it’s bad for the climate. Speaking of tired takes and difficulties in seeing the big picture.)
What is REALLY BAD for Ukraine, however, is Mango Mussolini’s unwillingness to stop crawling to RU and the same unwillingness to support Ukraine, the unwillingness to set a really low price cap on oil, the unwillingness among European countries to stop buying the oil, European weakness towards the shadow fleet, European reluctance to send weapons, close airspace, send troops… in short, to do more than flowery phrases.
YES, it pains me to say SOMETHING positive about Mango, but for once he has done right.
Not because it’s GOOD in itself. But because the alternative – to passively let religious lunatics (who want to eradicate neighboring states, oppress their own population, are allies of Russia, use our ‘domestic’ criminal gangs to destabilize the country) develop nuclear weapons – is WORSE.
For EVERYONE. Including in the longer term even Ukraine.
The predecessors’ (mainly Obama’s) naivety and belief that one can negotiate with lunatics who do not base their actions on rational considerations are now backfiring.
It’s just sad that it coincides with a war that ultimately had to start AND continue because the foolish West thought it could predict and negotiate with another madman (Putin) whose actions are also not based on rationality.
In the long run, one could even speculate that it IS positive that we now seem to see a crack in MAGA between Mango and – if possible – worse lunatics like Tucker, Gabbard, Bannon, Owens… In other words, the two extremes of the horseshoe meet when the American far-right and far-left unite to protect the theocratic dictatorship in Tehran.
Are rising oil prices positive?
No. We agree on that. 100%.
But the solution to that is to STOP buying Russian oil.
Not to (unintentionally, I hope) protect Khamenei & Co.
And sure, the armchair biologists are right that it’s bad for the environment.
But Putin, Khamenei (and Kim and Xi!) won’t be so great for the environment either.
Amen to that!
I have thus only shifted the perspective for Ukraine in my post where I unfortunately believe that it benefits Russia more in the long run.
That Iran hopefully no longer has the ability to produce nuclear weapons is of course positive, as well as what I write about that they probably also cannot deliver Shaheds to Russia.
It would also be nice if it could lead to the Iranian population breaking free.
So there are quite a few positive aspects to the attack and considering that they support Russia, and support those who go after Israel, one could also argue that they deserve it.
But as I said, it was more about what it means for Ukraine that I focused on.
It is not possible to stop buying oil from Russia, unfortunately. The EU can stop buying and buy instead from Brazil and the USA. But then someone else who bought that oil before will instead buy from Russia. It is hopeless to control that trade. The two effective ways to handle it are 1) to keep the world market price low and 2) to bomb Russian oil infrastructure.
USA itself said it wasn’t so close, they thought within three years.
Well, you do have a point in that. Possibly if one buys from others, they can compensate to some extent by increasing their production. One could also consider letting Venezuela back into the warmth again, they could produce quite a bit if they get some help with the rebuilding, but I believe Trump has already said no to that.
In the long run, it may have a marginal impact.
Then there is another problem with sanctions against Russia and Iran, and that is that it strengthens China, which can buy sanctioned oil at discounts and thereby outcompete energy-intensive companies in the West.
That is another reason why I prefer to bomb Russia 😀
We want to see the giraffes burn!
Time to turn BOTH Ryzzland and mullohran into paved parking lots! That would be lovely – imagine being able to skate from the pole marking where Moscow was, to the pole marking where St. Petersburg was….
And the festivals one could have there later!!! No more Hulstfred mud!
(irony, for anyone who might feel offended or something)
😂 Of course, there is always a risk that some remaining grumpy Russians will run around and tip over outhouses when you least expect it.
😎
Or that the “asphalt” blows away!
https://x.com/Ngoc_Minh24/status/1936455923817722368
One reason why the war in Iran is bad for Ukraine is that if it escalates and starts to resemble a world war, all weapon-producing countries will maintain their own production – a la Covid. Even though theoretically it’s best to send vaccines where they are needed because the virus doesn’t care about borders, it doesn’t work that way purely from a domestic political standpoint. I believe it was France that “hijacked” a Swedish shipment of vaccines. World wars are likely to trigger similar selfish instincts in politicians and their foolish voters.
Good point, already now countries are hoarding military equipment instead of sending everything to Ukraine.