The war in Ukraine 2025-07-09

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Russian losses

  • 1050 KIA
  • 5 Tanks
  • 2 AFVs
  • 68 Artillery
  • 1 Anti-aircraft system
  • 227 UAVs
  • 119 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
  • 2 Special equipment

SLAVA UKRAINI

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95 thoughts on “The war in Ukraine 2025-07-09”

  2. MXT

    “Europeans will never leave Ukraine, never, – Macron in an address to the British parliament “Every time Putin’s Russia advances in Ukraine, the threat comes closer to all of us, we will never accept the theory that the stronger is right,” he said.”

    1. DJ

      Great project! Sent €50 to them now. However, I would have preferred a setup where one buys shares through new issues. They could explicitly have a strategy to operate at a loss and take all technical/regulatory shortcuts available until the war is won, and then focus on a good export product. Then one could invest larger amounts.

      1. MXT

        👍

        I have also thought that they should go out and offer investors to invest capital (not just in this project). I think it could give a boost. Even though it is high risk, I believe the combination of knowing that you are supporting them and at the same time have a chance of return would attract many.
        It would also be an advantage for them to have capital after the war to quickly start the exports. 

        1. DJ

          Smartest, I think, would be if United24 notes a holding company on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, so that it becomes easy for all Europeans to trade. The holding company then invests its capital in many smaller companies (the campaign goal for Sky Sentinel is, for example, only $1.8 million USD). The startup scene for the defense industry is likely to be quite hot in Ukraine?

          Here is also an extra bit of cunning. Rheinmetall, Thales, SAAB, BAE, etc. are of course very eager to lay claim to all the knowledge that the modern warfare that the Ukrainians acquire with their blood. These large companies then have close contacts with their countries’ governments. Perhaps they don’t really want to see formidable competitors grow in Ukraine with battle-tested hardware? The clever thing about the above solution is that it directly targets private individuals in Europe, thus bypassing all semi-corrupt politicians who want to protect their voters’ jobs, etc.

      2. Westley Richard

        One should think that there should be a fund that focuses on Ukraine’s defense industry, a bit difficult as a layman to assess a Ukrainian company.

      3. Umlaut

        It was a really good idea. Sitting alone with some unlisted stocks where I never expect to make a profit, but it’s mostly to support a product I like.

  6. MXT
    It has probably gone wrong, 5,928 grenades AND drones on the same day probably doesn’t match.

    AFU: “In total, 183 combat clashes were recorded during the past day.

    Yesterday, the enemy launched three missile strikes at the positions of Ukrainian units and settlements with the use of eight missiles, as well as 83 air strikes, including dropping 139 controlled air bombs. In addition, carried out 5,928 shelling, of which 122 are from jet systems of salpovogo fire, and engaged 5,928 kamikaze drones for impressions.”
  7. MXT

    Off-Topic Weather
    Just the third warmest month is nothing to brag about but a podium finish nonetheless.

    “This year’s June was the third warmest ever recorded, according to the EU’s climate service Copernicus. AFP reports. The average global temperature was 16.46 degrees. The hottest was in June 2024 and the second hottest in 2023.

    In Europe, the heat rose to levels barely seen before so early in the year. Several countries recorded temperatures above 40 degrees, in Spain and Portugal 46 degrees.”
    https://omni.se/juni-var-den-tredje-varmaste-som-har-uppmatts/a/5EXGLe

    1. maggan

      Anecdotal evidence: in the Gothenburg area, I have been logging the temperature since 2016. 2025 was the coldest June since then. Can’t someone share some warmth?

      1. Lasse W

        Kalla vårar är en trend även i Stockholm medan höstarna är milda. Anekdotiskt, javisst.

        Cold springs are a trend even in Stockholm while autumns are mild. Anecdotal, indeed.

      2. MXT

        I’ve also had a pretty lousy June where I live (although that’s just my subjective opinion).
        The numbers apply to Europe as a whole.

        I don’t think you can notice the temperature rise of just over 1.5 degrees here in Sweden when it comes to the summer half of the year. However, the winters have become noticeably milder. Not many days nowadays that require shoveling snow. 

          1. CB500four

            It can be a bit misleading to compare with the period 1860-1900, as it was towards the end of what was called the Little Ice Age. In the beginning of the 1860s, there was also a “poverty year” with crop failures and famine, which contributed to the emigration to America.

            But that doesn’t deny that we are experiencing a climate change here. It just looks a bit different, since global warming affects some of the systems that enable us to live and survive up here.

            The Gulf Stream is weakening, which cools down the climate here. More information here

            Then we also have the Jet Stream slowing down as the temperature difference between the North Pole and more southern latitudes decreases, as we know the poles are warming the fastest. The speed of the Jet Stream affects its shape, giving us longer periods of cold or warm weather, like cold in June, warm in September, depending on which side of the “wave” we are on.

            We are probably the only place on the planet getting colder due to global warming.

            There are also other factors at play, such as El Niño, volcanic eruptions, Hunga-Tonga, for example, increased water content in the stratosphere by about 10% in a couple of hours, solar activity can also have an impact.

             

            1. MacMelmac

              To not forget that storms, hurricanes, etc. can both increase in number and intensity if the surface water in the oceans rises in temperature.

            2. MXT

              The “Little Ice Age” lasted approximately from 1300 to 1850 and was coldest between 1550 and 1750. I guess they chose that period precisely because it shouldn’t have any impact.

              It could definitely end up with us actually getting colder and/or even more rain here in the north despite warming, but it’s probably not easy to make such forecasts.
              But for now, we are still in the positive.

    2. Westley Richard

      Even in May, the temperature was lower than in the two previous years in Europe.
      Wouldn’t surprise me if the temperature is well below average in Sweden.

  8. MXT

    Israel
    “Hamas is accused of using sexual violence as part of a ‘conscious genocide strategy’ in connection with the terrorist attack on October 7, 2023, which marked the beginning of the war in Gaza. The accusations are presented in a report from the Israeli women’s group The Dinah Project, as reported by the BBC.

    The report is based on interviews with several sources, including a 15-year-old girl who was the victim of a rape attempt, individuals who were previously held hostage, and witnesses to sexual assaults.”
    https://omni.se/israelisk-rapport-hamas-anvande-sexuellt-vald-under-terrordadet-7-oktober/a/wgleOn

    1. Westley Richard

      Sexual violence is included when, like ISIS, one uses maximum brutal force to attract attention and instill hatred and fear in the opponents.

      The Mongols did the same in their time.

        1. CB500four

          I believe the Russians play in their own league when it comes to barbaric behavior north of Africa, at least since WW2.

          I seem to remember an interview with an old woman in Ukraine, who said about WW2, “First came the German gentlemen and killed us, then came the Russian barbarians and killed us.”

  9. MXT

    Israel-Palestine
    “One question remains in the attempts in Qatar to reach a ceasefire in Gaza, reports Sky News. Two sources familiar with the negotiations tell the British news channel that it concerns the status of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) inside Gaza.

    Successes have been achieved on other points, including the distribution of emergency aid to the residents of Gaza. According to the information, Israel and Hamas agree that a third party – unclear which one – will be responsible for the distribution.”
    https://omni.se/uppgift-en-fraga-aterstar-innan-vapenvila-kan-nas/a/zAprq4

    1. Westley Richard

      It will be interesting to see if an agreement can be reached on who will distribute the necessities.

      Distribution of necessities among the civilian population can easily be abused to force the population into submission and to buy loyalty, and has also been used as a way to tax the population.
      GHF has been accused of primarily distributing food to clans that are in opposition to Hamas, while UNRWA has been accused of being infiltrated by Hamas and indirectly supporting their warfare.
      There are reports that the different clans, including Hamas, have attacked people seeking aid from what they consider to be the wrong aid organization.

      Sweden’s aid has mainly gone through the UN’s World Food Programme WFP, we will see if it is them or someone else that the parties can agree on.

      1. MXT

        Regardless of whether Hamas (or others) can get their hands on, and exploit, the supplies, it is not an acceptable reason to refrain from trying.
        Moreover, if more effort had been made to deliver more food and medicine, and if Israel had not restricted it, it could not have been used for taxation and extortion, and there would have been no riots and violence associated with the distributions.

        1. Westley Richard

          Food and groceries have been used for taxation by Hamas for almost 20 years, long before October 7th.

          All in agreement with UNRWA.

          I prefer that my tax money is not used to finance terrorists.

          The aid should benefit the civilian population, not finance terrorists.

    1. DJ

      If the graph shows the number of sales each month, it unfortunately looks like -42% is a bit of cherry-picking of timing. Both January and February had more sales than in 2024. Then there is a big dip, yes, but there was also one in the summer of 2024, and it recovered. When the graph drops to 4000, one can probably say that the market has dried up. Well, let’s see if they stop publishing data in the coming months 🙂

      1. MXT

        Agree. It was unusually high in February, which may be a reason for the later decrease.
        Too early to draw any conclusions, even though one can sense a downward trend for April-May.

        As you write, this is the last data we get to see so we’ll know! 😄

    1. DJ

      Obviously, more launch ramps and bombers need to be taken out, as well as the industrial facilities producing this crap. Plus those with the expertise to develop the robots.

  12. MXT

    “The EU is considering a €100 billion fund to support Ukraine as part of its next seven-year budget plan, Bloomberg reports. If approved by member states during budget talks, payments could begin in 2028 to ensure long-term backing for Ukraine.”

  13. MXT

    Trump has not yet done anything positive for Ukraine.
    The deliveries of weapons are the kind that Biden decided on. It could of course have been worse, that he also completely stopped it (and not just allowed temporary stops).

    We’ll see if this could be the first positive thing Trump actually does after being in office for half a year.
    Perhaps there will also be sanctions.
    (And no, the agreement on Ukraine’s natural resources was not something positive).

    “The USA is considering sending a new air defense system of the Patriot type to Ukraine, sources tell the Wall Street Journal.

    If so, it would be the first time that the USA delivers a major weapon system to Ukraine during President Donald Trump’s time in office. Previous weapon systems were decided on when Joe Biden was president.”
    https://omni.se/vita-huset-overvager-att-skicka-patriot-till-ukraina/a/xm68WB

      1. MXT

        I don’t remember, but I think we should be up to 10 systems if everything has been delivered. The problem today is probably the robots that are needed.

        Of course, another system will be useful, but they are not exactly cheap.

  14. 205

     

    Continued trend with increased pressure in Kharkiv (Slobozhansky) where some of the missiles were also directed during the night.

     

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 16💥↗️

    S Slobozhansky 11💥↘️
    Kupyansk 4

    Lyman 19💥↘️
    Siverskyi 4
    Kramatorsk 3

    Toretsk 10💥↗️

    Pokrovsk 67💥💥💥
    Projected KWIA in Pokrovsk (Basel on 22-report): 232

    Novopavlivka 36💥💥↗️

    S Command
    Huliaypillia 1
    Orikhivsk 0
    Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 1

    On the southern front, the enemy is sticking to its tactic of small infantry assaults: attacking our positions, trying to break through our defences, conducting reconnaissance and attempting to clear logistics routes of mines.

    Over the past day, the enemy lost:
    – 43 KWIA
    – 17 artillery systems
    – 7 vehicles
    – 6 Supercam, Zala and Orlan-10 reconnaissance UAVs
    – 5 electronic warfare systems, including Groza-4

    1. CB500four

      Yes, sometimes I catch myself feeling a certain positivity from his statements, but I won’t believe it until I hear that the deliveries are in place.

  17. TikkaT3x

    Yes, everything Taco says is a show for the media. Taco is big with words but actually scared and weak. The question is when will Europe step forward?!

    1. MXT

      Interesting!
      But I don’t think your reasoning holds up.

      Emissions of fossil fuels have increased at the expense of emissions from biofuels, the latter of which (almost) result in net zero emissions.

      This means that we Swedes have contributed to increased emissions globally.

      Of course, one could argue that emissions in Sweden alone have not increased, but that is a silly argument.

      If the conditions for assessing how much or how little a country emits are that we should shut down our own CO2-intensive production and instead import, then it looks even better on paper.

      The argument that it’s good for us to use fossil fuels because it allows other countries to use biofuels feels a bit strange. The only advantage is that it might be possible to avoid transportation, but since we don’t have any oil extraction in Sweden, there will still be transportation.

      1. Jan W

        I don’t quite follow your line of thought. When we use biofuels, we are compensating (to a very large extent) for the carbon dioxide emitted by them with absorption that has taken place abroad. It is not reasonable to say that we have then reduced territorial emissions, i.e. emissions that occur within the country’s borders. And it is indeed territorial emissions that are at issue.

        Then, as you say, there is a lot of both import/export of emissions as well as absorption. There are conceivable alternatives to measuring territorial emissions, such as consumption-based emissions. However, fixed targets in, for example, Sweden and the EU are focused on territorial emissions, see also below.

        Of course, it is not good to burn fossil products. However, as I see it, a high reduction obligation is a costly symbolic act. Perhaps even counterproductive since the only long-term sustainable solution for transportation is electrification.

        My argument would of course fall if it were just a matter of building factories to produce biofuels. But it is not possible to produce fuel on an industrial scale from logging residues. Furthermore, the forest cannot simultaneously be both a carbon sink and an energy producer. This is where the issue of having your cake and eating it too really applies. Of course, it is possible to convert various raw materials that are otherwise used for food, but even that is a limited source. Which is probably not considered sustainable.

    2. Westley Richard

      Interesting and easy to understand, it is obvious that the debate in Sweden has become more about the demands than about the benefits.

      I also noted that Icelanders emit a lot, they have to start studying their volcanoes again.

       

      1. Bal

        The question is whether there is any benefit. The important thing is probably to shut down our industry with subsequent consequences, or as others see it, a good result.

    3. TikkaT3x

      It would be interesting to know the size of producers of carbon-intensive goods by country. As well as the amount of imports of these goods. This import burdens the emissions of another country. Countries such as Germany and Poland are likely to have large agriculture and heavy industry which drive emissions.
      At the same time, I believe that Sweden is in a good position considering our electricity production.
      I am bothered by the approach of using Sweden’s forests as a carbon sink to justify continued fossil emissions in Europe. Short-term thinking where the focus is on achieving goals by 2030.

    4. Umlaut

      However, the air we breathe does not stay within the country’s borders, so if the carbon dioxide is absorbed abroad and released here, the net result is still zero in the end. One could argue that on a micro-local level this is not the case, but Sweden is a sea of forest with small urban islands, so we are not that densely populated. 

  19. 205

    Fortification has been discussed on the blog before.

    From Clement, a Frenchman.

    Ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces are building two massive defensive lines 20km from the frontline

    Thousands of small positions and difficult-to-penetrate obstacles have been erected. A second line is being prepared – UPDATE.

    🧵THREAD🧵1/23 ⬇️

    West of Pokrovsk, the reader will notice that anti-tank ditches, obstacles, and trenches are increasingly numerous in the open countryside.

    After fortifying the immediate rear of Pokrovsk, the Ukrainian army began its ”New Donbass Line.”

    I already mapped and analysed part of this New Donbass line. It is stretching from Zaporizhia oblast to Kharkiv.

    Now, a new ditch is being completed a few kilometers east, especially behind main Donbass cities.

    West of Pokrovsk, you can now see two lines of the 3 rows of ditches and multiple positions behind.

    This is the first part and the main one of the upgrade of the current line by a second one.

    On this map, you can see the new ditches and trenches dug around the mining city of Dobropilla this month.

    This small city is strategic, because it is now the main supply hub for Ukrainian controlled Donbass.

    In blue, I added the possible continuity of new ditches and defensive lines around the city in the next few weeks.

    This will turn Dobropilla into a fortress.

    The two Ukrainian lines forming together the ”New Donbass Line” are both beyond all Donbass cities, Izioum, Lyman, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Droujkivka, Kostiantynivka, Dobropilla, Pokrovsk.

    The new one, in orange, is not yet very developed, only few positions and 1 to 2 ditches.

    In total, there are nine major cities in Donetsk Oblast, all with a dedicated defensive network (in yellow) and defenses connecting these points of interest (in white).

    The two lines behind are new because they do not defend any cities.

    The capture of these nine important cities: Siversk, Lyman and Myrnohrod as frontline cities, Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk, Sloviansk and Druzhkivka as populated industrial cities, Kramatorsk as the capital of Ukrainian Donbass, and Dobropilla as a general stronghold; will enable the Russian victory of Donbass.
    As the territory west of Donbass, mainly in Kharkhiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblast is open fields, it requires new tactics and new defensive lines.

    You cannot defend the same way as the Donbass. It is then crucial to prepare for it, now.

    I’ve already mentioned it several times, the new Ukrainian strategy is as follows:

    – barbed wire – 3 anti-tank ditches with barbed wire inside – 1 row of dragon’s teeth + barbed wire – small trenches and camouflaged bunkers

    1- Barbed wire, to prevent Russian infantry attacks, is present on several heights and in several rows.
    2- Three anti-tank ditches were built to prevent Russian armored vehicles from crossing. Barbed wire was placed in the middle.
    3- Dragon teeth tied together with an iron cable and topped with barbed wire to prevent any clearing work. Perhaps some mines are also placed there?
    4- Small positions and bunker, between the trees, with good cover against drone strikes, to hide infantry and drone teams.
    -> The holes in the defensive lines must be covered. Quite often, lines are stopping when there is a forest, a river or a village.

    Barbed wire must be placed in remote places where Russian infantry can infiltrate.

    As you can imagine, ditches cannot cover everything. Roads must be prepared for Ukrainian logistic and retreat.

    In this case, the ditch is stopping, forcing Russian vehicle to take the road and being more exposed.

    The main defensive line continued as far as Kharkiv. Several small towns, such as Veliky Burluk, Shevchenkove, and Izium, were behind the main line.

    The objective was to provide a stopping point behind the Oskil in the event of a Russian advance.

    Despite being very impressive, both lines still have vulnerabilities, such as the lack of cover for roads or some holes.

    Additionally, there is a big vulnerability in Zaporizhia oblast. Both lines are not enough and there is a hole in the defense between Prossiana and Pokrovsk’e

    There is online multiple images and videos from this new line. This time, the work is being done correctly.

    However, its effect will only be decided after the fall of Donbass (+/- the 9 cities I talked about), so it’s not for now.

    https://x.com/clement_molin/status/1942667425260134836?s=46

  20. MacMelmac

    I really hope this is RU’s last straw they are grasping for before the pissing collapses. But it seems like they are just increasing all the time and more often. They are going all in right into the tile. How much material do they have left? Have they once again been naive in their speculations?

    If Trump and his hangarounds haven’t realized that Putin is mocking them and laughing at them, it will go to hell. The USA must realize that if UA falls, RU will continue and eventually threaten even the USA.

  22. 205

    Ukraine sanctions 5 Chinese firms for supplying components used in Russian drones. The decree follows a publication by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), which said it recovered Chinese-made parts from downed Shahed drones during a July 4 air assault on Kyiv. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-sanctions-5-chinese-firms-for-supplying-components-used-in-russian-drones-06-2025

    • Central Asia Silk Road International Trade

    • Suzhou Ecod Precision Manufacturing
    • Shenzhen Royo Technology
    • Shenzhen Jinduobang Technology
    • Ningbo BLIN Machinery

    The Security Service of Ukraine reported the discovery of Chinese-made components in the drones used by the Russian army to attack Kyiv on the night of July 4. It was noted that in the “Geran” type drones (the Russian version of the “Shahed” drone), components were found bearing the markings of the Chinese company “Suzhou Ecod Precision Manufacturing Co., Ltd.”
    https://kyiv24.com/en/sbu-discovers-chinese-components-drones/

  23. Westley Richard

    The political maverick and former Social Democratic profile Jamal El-Haj wants to start a new party, reports Sydsvenskan. He has registered “The Unity Party” with the electoral authority and according to the newspaper, the party is said to have four core issues: International solidarity, humanism, economic equality, and climate responsibility.

    https://omni.se/a/7386WK

    There has been controversy surrounding El-Haj in national politics since he participated in a conference for Palestine in Malmö in the spring of 2023, which had strong ties to the terrorist group Hamas.

    Has he found a political vacuum with the 4 issues he wants to focus on?

     

     

     

      1. Westley Richard

        Nyans got 2 seats in the municipal council in Botkyrka and one in Landskrona. Mikail Yüksel took one seat in Botkyrka and the other two left the party. Doubtful if there is a functioning party anymore.

         

        1. MacMelmac

          Nice, then we don’t have to deal with that mess!
          I listened to the Quarterly’s Friday interview a few years ago, one time with Yuksel and another time with Paludan, and was struck by how similar they are.

          Both believed that they are misunderstood, they have seen and express the truth, everyone else is stupid and evil, anyone who disagrees is the enemy.

          Narcissists?

    3. johan No.1

      What you are writing about nuance proves that the “Muslim voice” that some parties hope for does not exist.

      There are no large stocks of arch-Islamists who will vote for the party that wants to introduce Sharia laws in Sweden – they do not exist.

      Time to kill that myth.

      1. johan No.1

        Yuksel has tried to profile himself in the presumed core issues for arch-Islamists and was very active before the last election.

        A sign of health 😀

      2. Westley Richard

        Hardline Islamists rarely care about democracy, so it is probably not their goal to take power through democratic elections. Among the light variant who are more focused on their personal success, it is probably an interesting group of voters. MY has surely been able to live well in his role.

      3. MXT

        Good points. As usual, a small clique stands out and then everyone else is tarred with the same brush even though the majority are sensible people.

        Those who truly want Sharia laws and still choose to live in Sweden are hypocrites.

      4. DJ

        The same goes for the other extreme party, Alternative for Sweden. They also received very few votes. Extreme Muslims are their nourishment, so they are likely to disappear with Nyans. I believe it when I see it that Jihad El-Hamas will manage to start a new party. He could join forces with Elsa Widding.

        1. Westley Richard

          Starting a new party and making it survive long-term is not easy. Some have flourished for a summer.

          In the latest election, Feminist Initiative got 3000 votes and New Democracy got 3 votes.

          There were also 12 parties that each received one vote, they have obviously failed to communicate their message.

           

           

           

    4. johan No.1

      Yes, so it was and then a total of 15,000 people in Sweden voted for NMR or was it 5,000?

      It is on election day that it is confirmed that it is an EXTREMELY small minority that messes things up and not in any way the large masses.

      It is on election day that one vents their dissatisfaction and no one votes for the extremists.

      Then the opposition tries to call our government Nazis but that is not serious.

  24. MXT

    Even though it is the largest in 30 years, barely 1300 cases are not particularly many, but the risk is of course accelerating quickly.

    “The spread of measles is the largest in the USA in over 30 years, writes the Washington Post. In total, there are 1,277 confirmed cases in 38 states, according to the newspaper, which links the development to the spread of the anti-vaccine movement.”

    1. DJ

      There is a direct mathematical connection between how contagious a disease is (the R number) and what percentage of the population must be vaccinated to prevent the spread of infection. If the percentage falls below 95% vaccinated, measles outbreaks occur. Next in line, when the percentage drops a bit further, chickenpox and rubella are up next. Yay! 🙂

    2. Westley Richard

      Last year there were 18,000 cases of measles in Europe, and it is also increasing in Sweden. Fewer and fewer people are getting vaccinated in Sweden, a bit worrying. 

       

      1. Rocky

        That there are fewer cases in the EU than in Europe is probably due to the fact that the level of education is higher in the EU than in the rest of Europe.

      2. T23

        I probably need to correct myself. In the introduction to the SVT article, it says “The number of measles cases in Europe doubled in 2024 compared to the previous year. In total, over 120,000 cases were reported – the highest number in over 25 years, according to an analysis by Unicef and the World Health Organization (WHO).”

        But in the body text, it says a total of “127,350 cases in 53 countries in Europe and Central Asia.”

        A somewhat misleading introduction to say the least…

  26. johan No.1

    I am of the very firm opinion that Trump is stalling now, he was forced to back down and is delivering tough statements, but the purpose is to make Europe fall back asleep.

    We should not trust him and definitely not get our hopes up.

  27. johan No.1

    The travel day from h@elvetet so there will be a post on Friday. Have been sitting in the office by myself as my colleague apparently is on vacation and sulking and drinking coffee.

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