Then NATO responded to the Russian drone attack, something RU must have anticipated?
There is a lot to read into, and the level of ambition is crucial, and if one wants to be picky, the window for IF Russia intends to attempt something in the Baltics became a bit tighter.
Below is a long and sour post mostly about Poland, but later this week there will be violent deaths of Russian bastards again.
The overall situation for ground combat as we know it –
Russia has sustained an offensive since the fall of 2023, and they have more to give in Ukraine.
Trump wanted a ceasefire, and Europe + Ukraine supported it, but Putin refused until this summer because he believed he didn’t need it.
China has ramped up their war material production, annually capable of building – 1500 tanks, several thousand IFVs/APCs, +1000 robots, and they claim they can build 79,000 Geran drones per year.
RU has started using autonomous attack drones on a large scale in Ukraine, and they have received laser weapons from China to shoot down aerial targets, the exact number of which we do not know, but we know they are with China.
I have speculated that China has provided high-value targets in Russia with their latest LV against drones, but we haven’t seen much results of that so far, it’s still booming 😀
Russia has 700,000 troops in Ukraine, they still have the initiative at the fronts, and there will be a major showdown at Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka soon. Both RU and UA have rushed in mechanized forces, and in today’s drone environment, this will be a very bloody series of battles.
Russia’s indirect capabilities are DAILY – 5000 FPV drones, 140 FAB, 5000 artillery, and then +50 air raids. You can read that list as a comment in the thread every day from MXT at johanno1.se.
We know that Russia has a strategic offensive reserve, but we don’t know exactly how large it is – at least an AC and 2-3 divisions. We also know that the Russian troop movement before their offensive is from existing fronts and existing units.
North Korea’s 11th AC is also supposed to arrive at the northern front or is already there, totaling 30,000.
We also know that much of the new equipment is not in large quantities at the fronts.
Ukraine has adapted its warfare and is saving lives today, thinning out the Russian ranks effectively. Ukraine also has its own strategic offensive reserves. I guess they must keep an eye on Transnistria and Belarus now, so the units are a bit scattered over the area.
They lose 1:3 in KWIA, but the number of casualties on the RU side is significantly higher.
For some months now, Ukraine has been engaging in a more aggressive and dynamic defense, but somewhat in the shadows, things don’t look good in northern Luhansk. Ukraine is slowly losing ground, conducting local counterattacks where it is most critical, and they have their main defense line outside the areas Putin wants to conquer – but they are not planning to retreat to it without a fight, that’s clear.
The overall situation for strategic bombing warfare as we know it –
Russia can conduct a mission with 500 Geran drones at most, and they now have missions about twice a week where they also incorporate robots?
China has ramped up all production lines, and even the launch pads are cheap cars.
We know that RU has good accuracy and target acquisition if they want, and they have now launched their older equipment, so even if we don’t discuss it, they hit UA where it hurts.
Ukraine is shooting down fewer targets than before, at best +90% now around 80% or lower, and they rarely bring down enough of the robots.
Geran jet engines are apparently difficult to shoot down, and RU is transitioning to them.
Ukraine has at times stated that Western LVs are not sufficient.
Ukraine initiated full asymmetric warfare in early August and is now (not for the USA but for Europe) targeting the goals they deem necessary in Russia.
They target the entire fuel, LNG, and oil chain – depots, pipelines, refineries, and export terminals for all three products.
For a month now, their focus has been to create fuel shortages in southern Russia and have succeeded quite well.
They also target ammunition, staffs, and bases, and Crimea now looks more like a pre-emptive strike than strategic bombing 🧐
Both Ukraine and Russia are preparing to target the power infrastructure in the fall/winter, and Ukraine has experience in solving it during crises, but Russia does not have it in the same way.
Overall, Ukraine has the advantage of being able to hold out longer than Russia, and if this continues undisturbed, there is a chance that Russia will collapse under the external pressure.
Combat plans of the parties
Ukraine aims to destabilize Russia so that the country turns inward and internal conflicts begin, then they can help partial republics gain their freedom, eliminate new criminal-clan candidates early, and in various ways minimize the Russian threat. Breaking away Belarus that turns west, for example.
They will then regain their country when the war ends and the Russian army leaves, and there will be permanent peace in their vicinity as oblasts bordering them want to be friends with Ukraine, and a future threat will be very small when surrounded by allies.
Europe and the USA have tried to avoid this for three years, Europe has probably accepted it now, but the USA still opposes it.
GUR, Atesh, liberation fronts in Russia, political opposition, freedom-seeking partial republics, and Belarus opposition are all UA tools to achieve this.
Ukraine holds out at the fronts, they carry out some spectacular offensives like the Azov thrust, they bomb Russia to pieces, and use all the above tools to bring down the country – if we maintain support, they will succeed.
They should have won the war already in 2022 and then 2023, but they were not allowed by the USA and Europe.
Russia aims to bring down Ukraine, but they are in a mess right now and still map with oblasts. They tried to get a free lunch politically, but Trump failed to deliver on that.
At a minimum, they have planned roughly the terrain up to the Dnieper and along the Black Sea coast because they need to connect with Transnistria.
The next target is beyond all of Ukraine, of course, the Baltics, which they know they can never politically bring down, but they don’t want a full NATO conflict on their hands because they can’t handle it.
An escalation in Ukraine would be to attack from Belarus and northward from Transnistria – Ukraine would have problems.
They have a very large organization for sabotage and subversive activities in Europe and plan to bring down the countries in the Balkans one by one.
They have also tied Spain, Slovakia, Serbia, and Hungary at present, and the Czech Republic risks a pro-Russian leadership.
In Germany, the UK, and the Netherlands, are there pro-Russian parties on the rise at least?
To me, it looks like the goal is to establish the western border of the Soviet Union roughly with the buffer zone against Muscovite Russia, if possible?
At the very least, they probably want a foothold in Europe through the Baltic states like an open wound, and then engage in full subversive activities against the whole of Europe, which they are good at.
They are good at it because it is a state-prioritized function, and we do not engage in such activities.
They intend to pursue this permanently as a new cold war, but they must first gain a foothold. They like this because then the criminal clan, which happens to have a country, has all of Europe as its workplace again and can enrich itself.
This is what Europe has to try to handle, and we had a first test a few days ago when Putin fired a warning shot at us to test our response.
We have had 3.5 years to prepare, and Ukraine has repeatedly offered to train us, manufacture weapons for us, and provide us with technology and know-how, but we seem not to have been very interested in it.
We should already have UA instructors throughout Europe, but we do not.
Russia can wage war in 2025 together with Ukraine because they have learned the hard way.
China has also embraced this early, as we have seen in various movies, which of course do not represent the entire defense forces but prioritized units.
How did the beta test go for us?
I give Poland an IG in handling the drone attack, using very expensive robots and shooting down only 20% – 47% of a very limited drone operation was terrible.
Naturally, all 19-23 should have been shot down 100m from the border with cheap ammunition as a clear signal to Russia that we are ready for their nonsense.
How on earth could Poland not have that readiness after +3 years of full-scale war on its border, and after a total of 50 drones and robots made their way from Ukraine to Poland, the Baltics, and Romania since 2022 is beyond me, but evidently, they did not.
And no, they did not hold back that capability because precisely 19-23 were chosen to trigger a full air defense – Poland did what they could, and top fighter jets from 3-4 countries participated in the operation.
I find it hard to believe that more aircraft could have been squeezed into Polish airspace, actually.
Furthermore, Poland is now complaining and seeking help from all of Europe, which is downright embarrassing – first, they openly say “we do not have the ability to defend ourselves, help,” and then their respect for Ukraine is poor; they had about 400 drones over them when Poland had 20, and now Poland wants us to help them.
Like little daycare prima donnas who want to be first in line 😡
I am also very surprised; we have heard strong words from Poland before, but in the first test, they performed poorly. I did not expect that, and this was in line with my most pessimistic posts last spring and early summer.
Ukraine is doing the right thing and offers to organize Poland’s air defense – a good initiative 👍
The counter-demand is, of course, a no-fly zone in western Ukraine, which they will not get as thanks for saving Poland 😀
But…
It does not signal strength at all, and Poland is “Europe’s strongest military power,” according to those who are not prepared at all for the strategic drone warfare of 2025.
We have previously expressed concern about this, and now we have received confirmation that we were right… again.
That was the strategic drone warfare.
In the 2025 war, ground troops will also face 4500 FPV drones and 150 FABs daily, and 80% of your losses will be from drone weapons.
“We have air defense roaring now,” someone with a red face shouts about Johan No.1’s audacity and defiance.
No, they do not get close enough to the front to shoot out the FAB traps anymore due to the drone weapons.
“Maybe so, it doesn’t matter, but we have the aircraft that will shoot down everything.”
Yes, we do, but Russian top fighter jets are behind the FAB traps as protection, so there might be losses on both sides perhaps – is there a reason why UA F-16s are not dominating in Ukraine?
Also, we are currently using up our missiles on Geran; imagine if it turns into three weeks of Geran to deplete our missile stockpiles before everything else kicks off?
Furthermore, in ground warfare – as soon as your firing position or command post is located, a FAB is there within minutes, and surveillance drones hover above you around the clock. Russia has now sorted out its digital battlefield, which we have ridiculed before, but now we have seen proof of it many times.
All you will see of the enemy is scattered shooters moving forward, and if you try to dig in, a FAB arrives as soon as you finish your hole.
If you try to advance instead, you will have an FPV drone cloud over you, and if you retreat, you will be chased by FPV drones.
Your maintenance is constantly disrupted, and your counter-weapon is your own drone weapon, but Europe does not have it yet – why we do not have it after +3 years of war, historians will have to figure out, but we do not.
Looking at how Ukraine fights, they hold back the armor, with less mobile groups on the front line and mobile task forces extinguishing fires. They endure absolutely biblical plagues but maintain a good posture year after year.
Always mobility and full 3D, an eye on the sky 24/7.
No artillery, no 20 tents, no armor, move every 20 minutes, and so on.
“Adapt or die,” isn’t that what they say?
Considering how the Poles handled this drone operation, one wonders if they have adapted to the rest?
I can already tell you that they have not, for the videos we see from their exercises show armor moving – large snakes that are only FPV targets.
Or the Germans, the Balts, the UK, France?
The Foreign Legion, slightly larger than SOF, is probably the unit that may have embraced the warfare of 2025 as they are quite unconventional, and Finland.
Armor and tank brigades across Europe – no chance.
And those are the units we will send to the Baltics in an increased conflict.
Considering the limited number of armor and tank brigades we have, a discovery that we could not handle the warfare of 2025 could mean a significant reduction in Europe’s combat power in one fell swoop.
Perhaps that’s why they are not in the Baltics 🧐
What we do have in place now are our SOF, at least – something.
I maintain that Russia intends to open a wound in the Baltics and try to escalate it into a full conflict, somewhat like the droning of Poland, where it festers, but we do nothing – the capitals in Europe get nervous and start seeking safe havens, and politicians begin to waver.
Best done with “Estonian partisans” and green men in the eastern part of the country.
But if they were to pull our pants down completely, they would unleash the warfare of 2025 and the strategic drone weapon to see how we can handle it.
If we assume that we find our inner Viking and then go to war with Russia, which I think we will do in that case – even a European has a limit.
The Baltic Fleet will be severely punished with heavy attacks and various targets in Russia.
The Baltics will be retaken.
Kaliningrad will be lost immediately.
Does anyone believe that we would declare full war against Russia and take Moscow?
Or would the worst thing that could happen to Russia be if they had to retreat from the Baltics and lose 100,000 people?
During this time, all our focus is on the Baltics, right? So if Russia has the gas to continue in Ukraine, they can do it.
They have their strategic reserve for the Baltics, we know that, so the answer is that they can conduct both a limited campaign in the Baltics and continue in Ukraine.
How are Russia and Ukraine fighting in Ukraine today?
Low on personnel and high on drones, robots, FAB, and artillery.
Does the number of personnel in the Russian armed forces matter, or is it the quantity of drones, robots, FAB, and artillery they can put in the air that is crucial?
If 80% of the losses are taken by these weapons, I would argue that it is the latter.
We need to be pushed into this war as long as Ukraine still stands strong, in my opinion – that’s also why I shouted about a ceasefire.
Additional concern arose after the drone cloud entered Poland, unfortunately – in our scenarios where Russia would attack south through Belarus towards Lviv and cut off Ukraine’s lifeline to Europe, it was always Poland that would crush the Russian bastards in a violent Polish mechanized attack.
We had these discussions often in 2022-2023, and Poland was barely stoppable at the beginning when they dismantled Mig29 into small parts to send as spare parts (they probably flew over them all maybe 😀)
I’m not so sure about that anymore after the signals we’ve received since the drone attack and the weeks before 😐
No other country in Europe will send troops there, it was Poland that was the lifeline.
We are in the most dangerous months of the war –
Right now, RU is at the top in the tech race, but it always swings within a year. Ukraine had the initiative in 2024 until sometime last winter, but Trump stopped them.
Both Europe and Ukraine are developing AI interceptor drones that are dirt cheap and can take down shaheds.
The Baltics have probably finished arguing about the thickness of the bunker walls now and will start a deep Maginot line with troops and vehicle mines in deep fields, drone-safe bunkers, and several layers of extras.
My guess is that by the summer of 2026, the window for Russia to enter the Baltics will be closed.
Things are going badly for Russia in Ukraine, and we have previously guessed that they need to expand – Transnistria, Belarus, or the Baltics are their options.
Just so it’s not forgotten – Russia has moved troops in the area around Pskov and made efforts to conceal it with camouflage nets over train stations, for example.
Units that have moved through the Pskov area have not later appeared in Ukraine.
They have previously built depots in towns like Palkino.
They have upgraded the railway down to Pskov.
All of this has been warned about by the Balts before.
The Balts have also shouted about “force posture” – that we send our units to the Baltics now.
We should all be concerned that Poland has a counter-exercise to Zapad with 40,000 soldiers from 16 NATO countries and nothing in the Baltics – because IF something were to happen, the Baltics are the target.
AND we are to send our brigades to the Baltics in case of increased threat, and that is Zapad and the drone attack into Poland – they meet both those requirements.
Right now, we assume that Russia will not cause any trouble in the Baltics, or we are afraid to expose our brigades to violence – you choose.
We must hope that all our Special Operations Forces in eastern Baltics are enough if something were to happen, most likely it is for “Estonian partisans” and green men.
We will probably find out after the war that it was a high-intensity war in the dark forests between thousands of SOF 😀
Maybe our power struggle with Russia ended in just that – many thousands of SOF cutting each other’s throats in eastern Baltics?
A hidden war simply that everyone chooses to deny – Russia to avoid risking Article 5 and Europe to avoid risking Article 5?
Yes, there are different ideas on how to achieve peace in our time, I think we should stop being cowards and restore wetlands throughout Russia, mine the border again, and lean back and watch their version of the Hunger Games with a bit of biscuit throwing over the border fence.
Russia’s strength is not military power, it is their subversive activities and influence operations, and Europe is on the brink of a financial crisis, I have come to believe.
Russia will not stop unless the Russian soufflé collapses point. I don’t know Europe’s position on that after this summer, but the USA still absolutely doesn’t want it.
The country needs to undergo a violent internal power struggle, and about ten new countries will be formed.
Belarus must orient itself towards Europe and mine the border against Russia again, and Kaliningrad must be demilitarized or fall.
THEN we will have peace in our time, and I think the fastest way to get there is more of this so we are pushed a bit to not learn 2025 warfare after +3 years of war is more than overdue.
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The war in Ukraine, Russian losses 2025-09-15
SLAVA UKRAINI
Armed Forces of Ukraine report:
*) New record.
China
This is of course positive in the long run, as it will probably affect how willing China is to support Russia to continue waging war. At the same time, we are talking about the risk of a decreased growth target, not that China has seriously started to back down. It probably takes even worse results before it starts to affect the war in Ukraine in any way. So far, it is probably still a win for China.
“The activity in China’s economy slowed more than expected in August, according to a plethora of new macro figures that came in during the morning. Retail sales and industrial production fell to 3.4 and 5.2 percent respectively last month, which is the worst outcome so far this year for both measures, writes Bloomberg.
The news agency notes that the decline from July thus seems to have worsened, which could put pressure on this week’s tariff talks with the USA in Madrid. At the same time, the figures signal that it may be difficult for China to reach the growth target of 5 percent for the whole year, as the second half of the year has started so weakly. Thus, expectations also increase that the government will need to launch stimuli to get the economy going.”
https://omni.se/ovantat-svagt-i-kinas-ekonomi-okar-fragor-om-stimulanser/a/xmajmp
Trump managed to bring down China economically after all 🤩🤩
Back to the big leap
He has probably messed up everyone’s economy so it will probably affect China too. 😄
(But as I wrote, they are not going backwards, it’s just that their growth is not increasing as much anymore.)
When the state treasury starts to run low, Putin operates with the same methods as against his political opponents. Make sure to accuse them of something and throw them in jail, or as in this case, seize their assets.
“The Russian billionaire Denis Shtengelov has ended up in Vladimir Putin’s crosshairs, accused of his food empire supplying Ukrainian forces with food and of his father starting a paramilitary group in Ukrainian territory. This is reported by the Russian news agency Interfax, according to Bloomberg.
A large part of Shtengelov’s fortune of around $2.6 billion can now be seized by the Russian state.
However, Shtengelov is not the first Russian billionaire to see parts of his life’s work disappear into Putin’s war economy. Since the Russian invasion in 2022 until June this year, the Kremlin had seized the equivalent of around $46.8 billion.”
https://omni.se/rysk-miljardar-riskerar-fa-miljarder-beslagtagna-av-kreml/a/4BMAza
Only 70% of the drones were not very good.
“🇺🇦 Ukrainian Air Defence shot down:
▪️59/84 Russian Drones;
▪️0/3 S-300 missiles.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lyuam7jb522c
That’s what I’m saying
Yes, today you were right! 👍
✊
“⚡️ Zelenskyy says Russia’s offensive in Sumy has collapsed as Ukrainian forces push toward the border, recapturing villages and surrounding Konstiantynivka.”
https://united24media.com/latest-news/ukraine-claims-breakthrough-near-border-town-as-russia-loses-momentum-in-sumy-11640
👍🫡🇺🇦
New attack vector into Russia 😳
Can be, but first they must throw them out of Ukraine.
Eastern Sentry does not include the Baltic region, here is a Baltic Sentry:
“ACO will also work closely with Allied Command Transformation, as it continues to do with Baltic Sentry, to rapidly experiment and field new technologies at Alliance-wide scale, such as counter-drone sensors and weapons to detect, track and kill drones.”
https://shape.nato.int/news-releases/eastern-sentry-to-enhance-natos-presence-along-its-eastern-flank
If they existed today, Ukraine would probably have them?
The 1300th day of Russia’s large-scale armed aggression against Ukraine has begun.
A total of 187 clashes were recorded yesterday. Of these, 184 were distributed along the following fronts:
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 11💥↗️
S Slobozhansky 10💥↘️
Kupyansk 9💥
Lyman 19💥
Siverskyi 25💥💥↗️
Kramatorsk 9💥↗️
Toretsk 14💥↗️
Pokrovsk 58💥💥💥↗️
Novopavlivka 21💥↘️
Huliaypillia 1
Orikhivsk 2
Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 5
I agree with you Johan that Poland partly completely failed to defend itself (they should, as you write, be prepared by now, I guess some now feel “we have been naive!” 😄 ).
I also agree that it is a bit ridiculous of them to start demanding that everyone should send LV to them. They have massively upgraded recently and if they haven’t kept up and acquired LV and other countermeasures even though they should be fully aware of how Ukraine defends itself, then they just have to make sure to keep up.
It would have been a different story if it had been a real attack and not a scare. Now Russia gets the maximum effect.
The USA is the world’s largest oil producer and has no need whatsoever to buy Russian oil, they are competitors. Of course, he sees rather the opportunity to sell American oil to Europe or the possibility to blame others if not everyone stops buying Russian.
Of course, I agree with him, that we should find other suppliers but it becomes quite ridiculous when he blurts out “We don’t buy Russian oil so Europe shouldn’t either!” 😂
Europe should counter with, we donate weapons to Ukraine so they can defeat Russia, the USA should do that too.
“Trump: ‘NATO and Europe need to step up. My friends in Europe are still buying Russian oil, unacceptable. Their sanctions aren’t tough enough. I’m ready to go forward with sanctions, but they need to match them. Right now, they talk but don’t act. We don’t buy Russian oil. They shouldn’t either.’ https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lyubnqzfos2z
Yes, Europe should stop buying Russian oil and gas. They should have done that a long time ago, but Putin managed to make, among others, Germany dependent on their gas, and with the Russian friends Orban and Fico on the team, it’s not that simple.
Trump knows this, and even though one might think that his intentions are good with his complaints, I believe the main reason is that he is trying to avoid sanctions against Russia as much as possible.
Even Ukraine may need expanded economic assistance. Easily arranged if we dared to tap into the Russian frozen assets.
“Ukraine facing a financial cliff as IMF warns Ukraine may need an extra $20bn of external funding in 2025”
https://www.intellinews.com/ukraine-facing-a-financial-cliff-as-imf-warns-ukraine-may-need-an-extra-20bn-of-external-funding-in-2025-400895/?source=russia
Imf 😡
What’s happening with Starlink? Only in Ukraine?
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-affected-as-starlink-suffers-global-outage/
I checked Downdetector and it seems there was a massive global outage, they received 43,120 error reports mostly just in the USA. Of course, this is far from everyone who even knows about Downdetector and goes there to report issues. But it seems to have been resolved now in the USA, but Ukraine seems to have ongoing problems.
From Ukraine, there were 166 reports at most:
In Sweden, there were 58 reports.
https://downdetector.se/problem-storningar/starlink/
Downdetector is a useful service to use when experiencing issues and being unsure whether it’s your own computer/software/equipment acting up or if it’s actually the service you’re trying to use that has problems. They don’t have information about all services, of course, but most major ones can be found.
https://downdetector.se/
👍thank you for the great tips!
Maybe that was the electromagnetic interference that the Russians had warned about, a little test….
As I have mentioned before (but then without a source), the USA is thus lifting sanctions against the Belarusian state aviation.
“On September 11, 2025, it became known that the USA lifted sanctions on Belavia, the Belarusian state-owned airline. This opens the way for Russian aviation to rather easily obtain the spare parts needed to service its airfleet – both civilian and military – since many of those parts are dual-use.
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3lyudw2auo22u
😡
Wondering how big bribes Trump has received for that?
Surely it’s to the west’s advantage if Belarus becomes more western-friendly, but as long as Luka is in power, one can almost consider it a Russian oblast.
“Putin’s Musings on Immortality Highlight His Glaring Succession Dilemma”
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/09/13/putins-musings-on-immortality-highlight-his-glaring-succession-dilemma-a90508
Wait now, isn’t Russia already fighting against all of NATO? Now they will have to make up their minds..
“Medvedev: Ukraine no-fly zone would mean NATO-Russia war”
https://www.breakingthenews.net/news/details/64813417
Agree with Johan and MXT regarding Poland. Big disappointment.
But there is hope. EU’s foreign ministers will soon gather for a meeting and after 11 hours of deliberation, they conclude that “It is unacceptable” and that “We are closely monitoring the situation.” This is followed by a NATO meeting with Mark Rutte, which is likely to be confidential. Then Ursula von der Leyen convenes the heads of state to potentially increase sanctions against Russia. Last but not least, a meeting between Trump and Rutte. Poor Ukraine!
Now DAMN
Now it’s coming 💥💥💥💥💥💥
Now the angry letter is coming 👍👍👍
eh? “Ajabajja don’t do that again”?
Action is what we want!
Bark, bark. Something similar was probably already mentioned in 2022, and I’m afraid that Europe is not much braver than then. Russia has indeed received a slap on the wrist in Ukraine, but they have also been involved in developing modern warfare.
We wait and wait until Russia is strong enough to dare to attack us, knowing that we do not dare to actively engage in Ukraine.
We simply let Russia decide the timing. Meanwhile, as they gear up for the next war, Europe is in meetings, Johan’s figures on Russian production sounded alarming, 1500 tanks per year?, how many do we produce in Europe, do we reach 50?
With Ukraiane without Ukraine… Or does the Eastern Flank encompass Ukraine proper’s border with Russia?
”Together with EU Member States, NATO, and Ukraine we need to build a Drone Wall for the Eastern flank.
#SAFE offers strong financial opportunities.
Ukraine’s experience in countering Russian drones is a benefit for the EU Defence Readiness 2030.
#YES2025 Conference”
https://x.com/kubiliusa/status/1967315782742032658?s=46
Good
💥🔥👍✊
“🔥 Drones damaged installations and pipelines at two Bashneft plants in Ufa, – ASTRA The UAV struck AVT-1 installation, damaged the gas pipeline and flare manifold, and caused a fire. Another UAV fell on Ufa Oil Refinery, hit AVT-6 installation and damaged two pipelines with water and nitrogen.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lyujy67ses2j
“💥 Russia: Ukrainian drones struck two facilities of the Ufa Oil Refinery, 3 kilometers apart, in the occupied Republic of Bashkortostan. Bashneft-Novoil and Bashneft-UNPZ. The complex refines 23.5 million tons of oil annually across 3 sites – 470,000 barrels per day.”
https://bsky.app/profile/igorsushko.bsky.social/post/3lyuk4ip26k23
NOTE! These are not new attacks but the results of previous attacks. AVT is what we want to hear about because it is the most important part.
Has he read the blog?
“Europe is not ready to face a drone threat from Russia. This is written by the former American general Ben Hodges on X.
Last week, 16 Russian drones were shot down in Polish airspace and this weekend a Russian drone was identified in Romanian airspace for 50 minutes.
“NATO needs to carry out a long overdue air defense exercise across the entire area to be able to fend off future Russian attacks. The Kremlin is now practicing and testing our response and capacity,” he writes on X.
He argues that the fact that the Poles met the Russian drones with fighter jets shows that “we are not ready” for a drone war.”
https://omni.se/amerikanska-ex-generalen-europa-inte-redo-for-hotet/a/lw6jlA
Ben Hodges has emailed me
Stubb: Putin failed all his goals.
He planned to take Ukraine in 4 days — it’s 4 years. He sought to divide the West — it’s more united than ever. He wanted less NATO spending — Trump raised it to 5%.
And Ukraine became very European and not Russian at all. /1
Stubb: Russians have tolerated pain not only in the Soviet era but before, to a degree hard for the West to understand.
War may end when Putin no longer pays $80,000 “maternity packages” for dead soldiers or bonuses for military service. 2/
Q: Should Ukraine give up territory to end the war?
Stubb: I’m a Finn, so I won’t answer that.
Statehood rests on independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity. It’s a choice between Yalta’s carve-up and Helsinki 1975 accords. I’d prefer Helsinki. 3/
Stubb: In 1944 Finland kept independence but lost 10% of territory and sovereignty to choose alliances. I’d never want that for Ukraine. 4/
Stubb: The situation on the ground is not as bad as people want to make it for Ukraine.
In 1,000 days Russia gained just 1% of Ukraine, ~18 km² a day, at cost of ~7,000 dead or wounded per week. The price is humongous. How long can Russian society accept this? 5/
Stubb: The range of guarantees for Ukraine is from bilateral deals to Article 5. The system is simple:
1. Ukraine’s 800,000 army carries responsibility
2. Europe supports
3. The US backstop
That’s a strong enough deterrent so Russia won’t attack again. 6X
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZ3MWtsZIGY
🧵https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1967292721145729163?s=46
Hmm, the USA probably won’t start military cooperation with them as well, will they?
In fact, Belarus has invited both the USA and the EU, among others, to visit the exercises. Maybe they think they will succeed in scaring us, or perhaps they hope to take a bunch of soldiers hostage before crashing into Estonia?? 🤔😄
“🇺🇸🥔🤔 US military officers made a surprise visit to Belarus to observe joint Russia-Belarus “Zapad-2025″ war games, – Reuters”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lyupjsxpzc2d
Little fishy
That should have been done three years ago.
“🇪🇺🚫 A push for tougher limits on Russian tourist visas and moves to restrict diplomats’ movement within the bloc are options for ramping up pressure on the Kremlin under the next wave of EU sanctions due this week, – Euractiv”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lyupgk6wxc2d
Finally!
Although he does change his mind a bit from day to day, so tomorrow it might be Ukraine’s and Biden’s fault again.
“U.S. President Donald Trump finally labeled Russia the aggressor in the war against Ukraine, further demonstrating a hardening of his position toward Moscow.
Referring to Ukrainian and Russian troop casualties, Trump told reporters Sunday: “8,000 soldiers have died this week, from both countries. Some more from Russia, but when you’re the aggressor, you lose more.””
“❗️Russia has reached the production of 30,000 attack drones per year and is preparing to double production in 2026, – NYT The New York Times writes that in 2025, Russia launched more than 34,000 drones and decoys at Ukraine – almost 9 times more than in the same period last year.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lyuozv2atk2k
“Ukraina sköt ner Rysslands kryssningsmissilskapabla Orion-drönare i Kursk Oblast. Det är den första sådana nedskjutningen för den 414:e drönarbrigaden och endast den 9:e bekräftade förlusten av en Orion sedan kriget började.”
I have been saying this for several years now, but since China chooses not to stop the war, it means they do not want Russia to lose. Most likely, they, like the USA and Europe, are also afraid of what a Russian collapse could lead to.
“⚡️ Kellogg: If China stopped supporting Russia, the war would end tomorrow.”
https://bsky.app/profile/united24media.com/post/3lyungy7ggl2g
XI lies until his tongue turns black! “China wants peace”
Stop doing business with them!!!!!
Sharp analyst he Kellog 😶
Well, Kellogg is good, he is on Ukraine’s side, and thinks for himself, that’s why he has been kept out of the so-called peace negotiations.
China wants a Russia that is whole, and that they can control, it will be difficult if it were to fall apart into small states.
The USA and Europe are probably also afraid of Russia falling apart, the reason is likely Nuclear weapons and refugee flows. The nuclear weapons act as a dampening blanket over our reactions to Russia’s abuses.
“HOW drone strikes Russian Buk-M3 air defense system 50km behind front lines The Main Intelligence Directorate has added another Russian air defense system to its target list, striking a Buk-M3 complex in occupied Zaporizhzhia”
https://bsky.app/profile/euromaidanpress.bsky.social/post/3lyumgkpiee22
The government is allocating 26.6 billion SEK to the defense in the autumn budget, announced the Tidö parties at a press conference.
“We are talking about very large investments in weapon systems and other defense equipment, both for the army, the air force, and the navy,” says Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (M).
Sweden is thus well on its way to reaching NATO’s 3.5 percent target by 2030, according to the Prime Minister. The additional funding will be used for the Swedish Armed Forces to grow. This requires, among other things, more employees as well as more training and exercises.
A smaller part, around 400 million SEK, will go towards increasing the daily allowance for conscripts and civilian conscripts. For conscripts, this means an additional 1,620 SEK per month.
Good.
Off-Topic, the liar Orbán.
“Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán claimed that 284 girls were arrested on suspicion of murder in Sweden last year, but the correct number is four. This was reported by the Public Prosecution Service to TV4 News.
Orbán was thus wrong by 7,000 percent. The Prime Minister referred to figures in German media, but he distorted and exaggerated the numbers significantly.
The Public Prosecution Service tells TV4 that 277 girls between the ages of 15 and 17 were charged with assault last year and four girls with murder/manslaughter.”
https://omni.se/orbans-pastaende-var-7000-procent-fran-sanningen/a/dRy1JB
He is participating in hybrid warfare against us! WTF = Shouldn’t he be acting as an ally in the EU???????
What kind of demands are there in the EU anyway? Shouldn’t we kick out the crap?
Well, one might wonder why they are included. If it doesn’t fit, just leave.
There should probably be some mechanism to exclude a country when its leader clearly tries to divide and destroy the union from within. It should also be prohibited for a country in the EU to vote in the same leader for more than two terms, with a maximum term length of 5 years.
We know that leaders who stay in power for more than around 10 years gradually become obsessed with power, which should be avoided at all costs.
Soon election and he doesn’t seem to be winning.
I was thinking about that Russian “new” fishing boat, which anchored in the middle of the Öresund Strait. Close to both Copenhagen and Malmö. Imagine if it had been full of drones and launched a full attack! What a mess it would have been!
Yes, we probably need to quickly get some cheap mass-produced counter weapons? Long borders to defend!
It’s probably best to get moving!
Ukraine has apparently made some progress with autonomous interceptor drones.
The problem is, as you write – a long border.
It’s great that they are starting to realize it and dare to say it, but shouldn’t it have taken 3.5 years?
“🇪🇪❗️Russia is becoming a serious threat to Europe, to NATO, to all sober-minded countries in the world, and Europe is only just beginning to rebuild its defenses, — Estonian Prime Minister said to The Times.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lyuzslr2zs2b
One wonders if Russia has had defectors who slowed down?
That the Balts have argued about the thickness of the bunker walls in their line against Russia is incomprehensible to me.
Off-Topic, USA and TikTok
I guess the agreement means that everything released by Trump and MAGA will be boosted for maximum reach and that everything coming from the Democrats will be stifled.
No, of course, this is not a fact and yes, I don’t have higher thoughts about Trump than that. 😄
“The USA and China have reached an agreement regarding TikTok. This is according to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, as reported by AP.
Bessent is in Madrid for talks with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng.
Earlier today, Trump hinted that China and the USA had reached an agreement on their platform Truth Social.
For a long time, Donald Trump has been trying to get TikTok’s Chinese owner to sell the platform’s US operations to an American company.
The details of the agreement are still unclear.”
https://omni.se/ministern-bekraftar-usa-och-kina-har-avtal-om-tiktok/a/4BMe6R
Control is transferred from one dictatorship to another. Can imagine the content of the flow changing radically, from one extreme to another.
Off-Topic, pole vault
Go Sweden! I wonder how many world records he will achieve during his career, this should be his 14th?
“Armand Duplantis takes gold in the pole vault final in Tokyo. It’s the pole vaulter’s third in a row.
Duplantis also sets a world record with a jump of 6.30, after securing the gold when Greek Emmanouil Karalis failed at the height of 6.15.
– But damn it feels very nice, Duplantis can be heard saying in SVT’s broadcast shortly after the jump.”
https://omni.se/armand-duplantis-gar-for-guld-hoppet/a/1MK9RW
The Greeks can’t jump, everyone knows that 🤣🤣
With the right staff, he would be the first man in orbit without a rocket.
It is now outside Kristiansand. 9 knots, which is normal speed. The Norwegian coast guard “Bergen” is nearby. It is probably heading to the Arctic Ocean. Well, let’s wish it good luck. Blackouts at sea can happen after all.
I remembered when the ship I was employed on experienced a blackout somewhere between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. It became completely silent on the boat and the mess girl came rushing with bated breath, wondering what had happened. She was noticeably scared as it was her first voyage at sea.
I never used to tease newcomers, but I couldn’t resist that time, so I asked her if she could swim. She said she could manage 200 meters. “The nearest land is 2000 meters away,” I said, pointing downwards with my finger. She completely broke down, and I regretted it immediately. The ship started up again and headed towards Curacao, letting the swing go as Povel writes. I still feel ashamed of this incident.
But now that you have confessed it and will feel better, swipe some indulgences above as well and you are guaranteed to be absolved.
Just want to make a point that almost everyone has been wrong so far about Zapad 25.
First, those who voted above when the exercise began at the turn of the month and the drone cloud into Poland is included 😀
Then that the exercise is only in Belarus for now, it is also in Kaliningrad. I’m wondering if they are using the exercise to move equipment/units into Kaliningrad?
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4036631-russia-expands-zapad2025-drills-to-kaliningrad-region.html
The Northern Fleet is also out and about so it is included.
There is extremely little described about the exercise actually – thought the intelligence services would follow every move but they don’t.
If you ask me, it’s bordering on criminal not to follow drawn plans and move the brigades into the Baltics, but maybe we are afraid now of losing them?
Now you are coming up with your own start date just to get it right! 😂
Wait here MXT.
I’m not doing that at all – Zapad has been going on for a few weeks.
You should have some intellectual honesty senhor.
Why did everyone report that it started last Friday?
Just because you started transporting your troops there beforehand doesn’t mean it has already started?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zapad_2025
ZAPAD 2025 officially takes place between the 12th and 16th.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zapad_2025#cite_note-1
The fact that preparations have started before, such as troop movements, artillery fire, maybe construction of fortifications, etc., does not mean that it is part of ZAPAD.
If a concert runs from 8:00 pm to 9:30 pm, do you think it started at 2:00 pm when the stage builders started? Or at 5:00 pm when the first sound check was done?
But okay, when a rock festival officially runs from Thursday to Saturday, but people start setting up their tents and drinking beer already on Wednesday, you could say that the party started on Wednesday while the festival started on Thursday.
I am willing to give you partial credit! 😉😂
There have been 18 attacks on refineries MXT since August 2nd.
This is in line with the best periods before but also where they have been forced to stop before.
We’ll see where we end up this time.
It may be that they haven’t been stopped but need a few months to build up inventory so they can ship enough even though I think it’s less likely.
Now it has been well confirmed on several occasions that they have indeed been stopped.
And Sirsky was out a bit before the beginning of August and said just that.
And I post these links here as a reminder every time you write it
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4017977-cinc-syrskyi-urges-us-eu-to-provide-more-air-defense-and-allow-strikes-deep-into-russia.html
Where does it mention that they are not allowed to attack refineries and depots?
What is stated is that they are not allowed to use items from the USA and Europe (ATACMS and Taurus) to strike deep. Not a word about them being forbidden to do so with their own weapons.
You probably need to read your own link once again instead of just posting about it 😄
“More medium- and long-range missiles, including American ATACMS and German Taurus systems, would allow Kyiv, provided restrictions on their use were lifted, to slow down Russian weapons production by targeting infrastructure that manufactures missiles and drones, the newspaper writes.
“The availability of any missile weapons is in itself a deterrent. I hope that thanks to President Trump’s position, this process will be much easier and … we won’t have any of the difficulties we had before,” Syrskyi added.”
Jädrigt få who can think neutrally nowadays.
“Europe will soon receive interceptor drones so then Russia can’t drone us.”
What is the only thing going well for Ukraine right now?
Does China already have this technology and in larger quantities than Europe?
Unfortunately, not only employees within the municipalities have had their information leaked..
“In the data leak from the company Miljödata, there are around 25 private companies, according to SVT News. Among them is the company GKN Aerospace, which is a partner to the armed forces and manufactures military aircraft engines. A list of personnel from a company involved in activities that are security-sensitive could be a starting point for the intelligence services of Russia and China, according to intelligence expert Jörgen Holmlund. He says that foreign powers put together puzzles based on their intelligence needs, and one of the areas they are particularly interested in is technological innovations from the West. …”
Good morning!
910 KWIA
5 AFVs
26 Artillery systems
2 MLRS
310 UAVs
72 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
https://bsky.app/profile/matsextrude.bsky.social/post/3lywiaekuuk2y
Glory to Ukraine!