I post, as known, on johanno1.se and there is an excellent comment field in Swedish and English directly translated by magic.
Then on Substack where first a Swedish post circulates and then an English version a little later in the day.
Today it will be Omfall C – probably the most likely outcome if the West can just make up its mind at some point.
“Igor I want to watch Lethal Weapon 1 on Rossiya, can you change it,” “absolutely Mr. Putin but it’s not possible, it’s just Swan Lake in black and white.”
A sense of unreality sets in and a now sweaty Putin who pulls an old KGB trick – WhatsApps all his silovik buddies “surely you also see Lethal Weapon 1, how great is it, right?”
When he hasn’t received a response for over half an hour even though it’s only eight o’clock, he starts to get seriously worried.
Long glances towards the security guards who he feels have been absent-minded and on their phones a lot, which they are not supposed to have – must bring it up with the security chief tomorrow morning he thinks and makes a mental note of what he learned in KGB school.
For all of us who have social media, it’s a streamlined jump from Moscow to Dubai in small private jets, a sign that the power struggle has begun.
It didn’t start with all the oligarchs and siloviks tossing their gold and bundles of dollars into their Gulfstreams with one hand and shouting “To Dubai” with their breath in their throats and trophy wives with mink coats in a tight grip around their necks in the other.
It started in Ukraine when the army had had enough.
In 2023 there was an attempt at a shuffle within the elite and to this day we still don’t know how many were purged and which ones Putin “forgave,” meaning he didn’t shoot them in the kneecaps because he needed them.
Yes, Ukraine had a hand in this as everything was perfectly timed, but the FSB chose Putin and someone leaked the plan.
During 2024-2025 desertions became epidemic and the army’s morale worsened, offensive operations ran out of gas by late 2025.
Since Ukraine was finally allowed full asymmetrical warfare, the big mess spread over Russia, the one that should have come in 2024 or early 2025 but was prevented by the West.
Then in October, the “operation turn off the lights” was restarted and this time they really pulled down the curtain on Russia, not the constant start-stop they were forced into earlier in the war whenever Putin complained to the USA and Europe.
After the rasputitsa and a stunning pre-emptive strike on Crimea, Ukraine began its invasion of the peninsula – the Kerch Bridge was completely cut with a few Flamingos, they landed at the pier down to Crimea and went on the defensive, conducting raids with all 300 amphibious craft along the coast from Kinburn Spit and down around Crimea.
As soon as the Black Sea Fleet stuck its nose out, they died in a cloud of drones and naval drones.
The loss of Crimea was too much for Putin’s silovik pals – someone had to take the blame and it had to be Putin before the army spontaneously revolted and hung us on the lampposts.
After months of negotiations, they convinced the FSB and on that fateful day when Putin wanted to watch Lethal Weapon 1, the plan was activated.
So they hung Putin upside down in a gas station after marinating him in diesel and lit him on fire – “now the masses’ bloodthirst will surely be quenched,” they said to each other.
Those on the Learjets to Dubai were Putin’s confidants who knew they would first get a severe wedgie and then be thrown out of a window due to the power shift.
However, the siloviks completely misjudged the army’s discontent with the situation, and the army misunderstood the elite’s attempt at a power shuffle, interpreting it as a starting gun for a popular people’s revolution – they simply smelled the morning air.
Army corps left their front sectors in Ukraine, ran over the barrier battalions, and headed towards Moscow to “liberate the country from the oppressors in a real people’s revolution with a lot of mäsk.”
The siloviks really hated Lenin now but realized they were the next layer of the onion to be peeled off and would be shot against a sauna wall, so they boarded their planes to Dubai – we saw it as wave two of the Learjets where the siloviks half-jogged on board the planes with trophy wives in a tight neck grip and some bundles of dollars tucked into their waistbands.
The Lion from Damascus, Yanukovitch, Steven Seagal, and Rickard Olsson all shared a plane to Bahrain – they were shot down already over a suburb of Moscow.
The FSB, who had prepared to counter a palace coup, were completely caught off guard, and after the revolution, it would emerge that Ukraine, having caught wind of everything, had started working on army chiefs quite early with tips about the revolution.
A civil war naturally broke out in western Russia when war veterans in entire intact army corps completely overran the FSB and GRU units who had only learned to shoot fleeing own soldiers in the back. Here they faced them in tanks, which didn’t work at all.
Wave three of the Learjets to the promised land were all from the FSB, GRU, SVR, and others who landed all over the Middle East and Asia where they had negotiated positions in the countries’ security services and torture centers.
At some point, the army stood there somewhat surprisingly and realized they had crossed the moat and taken the castle.
After the customary looting and mäsk drinking, calm settled.
Even before the great FSB war broke out, about a dozen sub-republics had declared independence and stormed their provincial governments and security forces headquarters.
The six provinces closest to Ukraine all declared themselves fully autonomous and solemnly declared that they wanted to start a bright era of trade, exchange, and joy with Ukraine starting tomorrow.
Kaliningrad immediately approached the EU and offered full demilitarization in exchange for an agreement with the EU as an autonomous province – they argued that there was no functioning government body in Russia to negotiate with, even though it was obvious that they seized the opportunity in the chaos.
Lukashenko was actually quicker to board his plane than the Russian siloviks when he helped load the gold bars and bundles of dollars on board together with his sons.
Belarus fell overnight and immediately submitted a pre-filled application to the EU with von der Leyen’s email in the margin as she had filled out the document for them.
Approximately a day later, Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, Spain, Belgium, and the Netherlands began pushing in the EU to normalize relations with Russia immediately for peace in our time.
The Nordic countries had enough and started a counter-movement in the EU where they managed to get country after country on board with a total visa ban and full financing of “the great shiny wall of peace,” which in reality consisted of deep minefields with troops and vehicle mines, fortifications, and a completely closed border with Russia stretching from the Arctic Ocean, through Finland, the Baltics, Belarus, and all the way to Ukraine’s easternmost border with Russia.
We included in the motion that the six oblasts Ukraine wanted to deal with were not covered by the visa ban, but that Ukraine was responsible for border control.
None of those involved, from Igor who couldn’t turn on Lethal Weapon because it was just Swan Lake all the way to Von Der Leyen who falsified an application to the EU for Belarus but forgot to remove her email, yet understood the implications of what had happened.
The country of Russia, which had been a constant virus and parasite on the side of Europe since the Viking Age, had died, and it was the beginning of hundreds of bright and peaceful years – future researchers called it “Europe went from dark to light without even realizing it themselves.”
It was never pronounced out loud, but Europe had unanimously agreed that Ukraine had a mandate for all eternity to trim down Russian leadership when necessary through a Mossad-style organization called “The Peace Corps for Peace in Our Time and Integrity.”
Churchill had a very famous statement where he said that “a living Russia is a dead Europe,” he later clarified that he did not mean to kill every Russian when the UN brought him to court, but rather it was more figurative.
Peace settled over Europe.
On Substack – there is still a chance to become subscribers and it is valuable to me if you want to become paying ones. All content is posted freely to everyone but it still takes a lot of time to put together, costs 80 SEK per month, and then you skip a dinner at McDonald’s so it is also healthy – Johan No.1 will make you healthier too 👍
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Russian losses in the war in Ukraine 2025-09-17:
SLAVA UKRAINI
It was a long time ago since we were >1000 KWIA?
😂 Best in a long time! 👍👍👍
We are keeping our fingers crossed for “Omfall C”!
Russia launched a massive drone strike last night targeting substations powering Ukraine’s railway network, Deputy PM Oleksiy Kuleba said. Over 20 passenger trains were on routes during the attack, none hit. Still, 26 trains are delayed over an hour as Russia seeks to disrupt transport.
You know that Sweden is part of the Nordic countries?
“The Nordics had enough and started a counter-movement in the EU…”
Most of the rest sounds reasonable, but that Sweden would oppose the peacekeepers when they have the chance, I am very doubtful about.
Admittedly, we have toughened up a bit with NATO, initiated rearmament, and especially when it comes to weapon deliveries to Ukraine, but I suspect you are right.
It will probably not only be the peace doves but surely also many others who want to normalize the relations.
Exciting insight C, with a rapid development.
“The loss of Crimea became too much for Putin’s silovik pals – someone has to take the blame and it has to be Putin before the army commits a spontaneous revolution and hangs us on lampposts.”
…
“Army corps left their front sections in Ukraine, ran over the barrier battalions, and headed towards Moscow.”
A loss of Crimea, I believe, can individually change the battlefield for the other front sections. Partly logistics, which to some extent goes through Crimea, right? Then the Russians in Donetsk are exposed from the southeast. Ukraine can roll up the coastline towards Mariupol and at the same time further cut off Russian logistics from the east to the Donetsk fronts.
But certainly a blow to prestige that would deflate many generals on the fronts.
Speaking of Russia in chaos. China is likely to act. Something that in the USA has been perceived as a threat even before Russia invaded Ukraine. Now it’s an open goal for the Chinese army to take control of the easternmost parts of Russia as a start. What will the USA do?
Satire at its best. I appoint Johan no 1 as the undisputed heir of Olof von Dalin. By the way, he was ennobled.
Johan No.1 is the king, he can just knight himself!
Maybe the website should change its name to Argus? 🤔
Good suggestion.
“Overnight Russia launched 172 drones, mostly Shaheds, along with an Iskander-M ballistic missile and an S-300 from Kursk and Rostov regions. Ukrainian air defense downed or suppressed 136 drones. Strikes hit 13 locations with missiles and 36 drones.”
Falling total with more falling fronts except for the most active ones recently, with a peak in Siversk and stable pressure in the triad Toretsk-Pokrovsk-Novopablivka.
👍
DeepStateMap, unfortunately doesn’t look good at Kupiansk.
Ukraine must do something soon to cut off the Russians.
The enemy advanced in Kupyansk, near Holubivka and Novoivanivka.
🇪🇺🇺🇦 The EU is rushing to spend billions on setting up a “drone wall” with technology that has been battle-tested in Ukraine, – FT Hours after Nato jets shot down drones that entered Poland’s airspace, Ursula von der Leyen said Europe had to “build a drone wall” on its eastern border.”
Off-Topic, Trump, the bully
“Donald Trump clashed with Australian ABC’s reporter John Lyons when asked about his finances. It was the question of whether it is appropriate for an American president to conduct so much business that pushed things over the edge. Trump asked where Lyons works and accused the reporter of “hurting Australia very much”.
The president also threatened to bring up the reporter in the upcoming talks with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
– I’m going to tell him about you. You have created a very bad atmosphere, he says.
When Lyons tried to ask his follow-up questions, Trump told him to be quiet.”
https://omni.se/har-ryker-trump-ihop-med-reporter-fran-australien/a/almVkE
Trump Approval Ratings 2025-09-15
In the three most recent polls, he has slowly been improving, but this time he dropped significantly by 2.6% and is now down to -17%. The lowest so far and 3% worse than at the same time in his previous term as president.
Fox News has finally updated I discovered a bit late.
The latest one is from Sept 5-8. It’s the same time as the previous measurement in the one from The Economist above, when Trump was at -13%.
46% Approve and 54% Disapprove gives -8%, exactly the same as in Fox’s previous measurement in July.
(A difference of 5% compared to The Economist).
Since Fox’s previous measurement in July, there has been no change overall.
Which is a bit strange since the independents have dropped quite a bit. But apparently, the Democrats have unexpectedly become a bit more satisfied (+1%). The conclusion is that there are not so many independents included in the survey, otherwise their decline would probably have had a greater impact. They have gone from 37% Approve and 63% Disapprove to 31% and 69% respectively.
It’s actually quite fair that they don’t have a greater impact because most people belong after all to either the Republicans or the Democrats.
Fun writing by Johan today about Putin’s sweating behind his phone wall. Who’s calling? Or who hasn’t called? Why isn’t X calling? It’s like in the mafia in Sicily. It’s about who isn’t calling. Telephone silence is ominous. If the phone goes completely silent, you are excommunicated and don’t have much time left to live.
“❗️🇺🇦Himars strike at a concentration of 🇷🇺Russian assault motorcyclists”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lyzhntdh222p
“🇱🇹 On the border with Russia, Lithuania’s Defense Ministry has opened the first of nine schools across the country where children aged 10 and older and adults will learn to fly, assemble and program FPV and other drones, — Reuters.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lyzhi7iyhk2g
Wondering how reliable they are after 85 years?
“Ukrainian reconnaissance unit “Tur” of the 225th Assault Regiment claims to have found detonators at a Russian ammo depot, marked with Nazi swastikas. They date back to Soviet-Nazi cooperation of 1939–40, when the USSR imported German military tech.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lyzhgy6a6s2x
“❗️A 🇺🇦Ukrainian fighter jet using a precision-guided bomb destroys 🇷🇺Russian positions in Shevchenko on the Pokrovsk front.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lyzh7n6ie22p
“The situation with gasoline in the LPR & DPR is terrible. Prices have been jacked up 2-3 times” People complain that the fuel crisis in the occupied territories of the Luhansk & Donetsk regions has reached a critical point: prices have soared, at some gas stations, gasoline is available only with coupon” https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3lyzh575vq22q
Maybe ChatGPT will be right when it comes to how the war in Ukraine will end.
🌊 ⚡ Ukrainian forces have disabled and flooded a massive underground pipeline that Russian troops were using to move supplies and personnel near Kupiansk.
#Kupiansk
https://united24media.com/latest-news/underground-pipeline-near-kupiansk-turned-russian-lifeline-until-ukrainian-forces-flooded-it-11714
AI doesn’t really shine when it comes to analyzing longer texts and more complex reasoning and questions.
Especially in subjects where not much has already been written, so it doesn’t have much data to rely on.
The latest version of LLM has training data from September 30, 2024.
ChatGPT doesn’t really reason in the usual sense, but rather tries to find the most likely answer based on the data it has access to. It does work surprisingly well with simpler amounts of information and limited concrete questions. However, when there is too much information and loosely defined questions, it easily gets lost. It’s like it can’t hold the entire text in memory and understand it as a whole.
Sometimes it also struggles to separate things, so the answer to the latest question can suddenly be partially based on something discussed earlier in the same thread.
Danmark låter sig inte avskräckas av Rysslands hot.
⚡️ Denmark just fast-tracked a Ukrainian missile fuel factory near its F-35 base, clearing 20+ laws to let Fire Point start production immediately.
https://united24media.com/latest-news/denmark-clears-legal-path-for-ukraines-critical-missile-fuel-factory-on-its-territory-11659
Well done, Denmark!
Probably would never happen here in Sweden in peacetime.
By the way, it is true that it lacks self-criticism. It is only when pointed out that it is off track that it realizes it is wrong, even though sometimes it delivers completely obvious nonsense.
Ukraine’s ‘revenge operation’ in Russian Far East blows up troops accused of war crimes, intelligence source claims. The operation struck the 47th Airborne Assault Battalion of the 155th Guards Marine Brigade stationed in Russia’s Primorsky Krai, a HUR source told the Kyiv Independent.
Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) carried out explosions in Russia’s Vladivostok as a “revenge operation” targeting troops accused of war crimes, a HUR source told the Kyiv Independent on Sept. 16.
Vladivostok, a major port on the Sea of Japan near China, lies about 6,000 kilometers (3,730 miles) east of Ukraine, making it one of Russia’s most distant cities from the war’s front lines.
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-revenge-explosions-in-russias-far-east-hit-troops-accused-of-war-crimes/