Is Russia running out of tanks?

Many have noticed that Russian losses have decreased recently, especially when it comes to tanks and other armored vehicles.
Let’s go through the statistics and compare them with earlier periods during the war to see if we can draw any conclusions. Is it true that losses are decreasing, and does it mean that Russia is running out of tanks?

Tank losses during the spring

When looking at the daily loss reports, it’s hard to get a good overview, and it’s easy to believe that the average is lower than it actually is.

Let’s start by looking at some numbers showing average losses for different periods of the war in Ukraine.
When it comes to armor losses, I often compare with how it looked after October 9, 2023. That particular date is interesting because Ukraine’s summer offensive was over, and the Russians started their own offensive instead.
It began with a period of enormous losses, mainly of tanks and armored vehicles. Since it is still the period with the highest losses throughout the war, it is also interesting to compare that time.

Daily average tank losses:

Entire war up to today:	9.0/day
From the start until Oct 8:	7.8/day
From Oct 9, 2023 – Dec 31, 2023:	13.9/day
Average for all of 2024:	10.1/day
Average this year up to today:	8.1/day

It’s a bit surprising to see that the average so far this year is actually higher than the average for the entire war.

But let’s take a closer look at recent times. This is from February 19 this year until today.
It looks a bit different then.

Although Russian tank losses fluctuate a bit, the downward trend over a few months is quite clear. There are a few days left before this month ends, but the average so far in May is: 4.75/tanks per day.
That’s really low and matches other periods with low losses. On May 29th, zero tanks were reported. This has actually happened several times before in the war.

So, these are not uniquely low numbers, but it is a downward trend.
Does it mean that Russia is actually starting to run out of tanks?

Let’s look at a couple of other periods during the war where tank losses have been low to see if we can learn something from it.

Tank losses in the spring of 2023

In the first months of the year, the fighting was about Bachmut, and by the end of March, the Russians unfortunately managed to take the city but with enormous losses.
After that, the intensity from both sides decreased significantly.
In early May, there was a short period where the seven-day average per day was as low as: 1.43 tanks/day.

It can be compared to the average during the period from January 1 to March 31, which was:
6.5 tanks/day

It was certainly not a sign that Russia was starting to run out of tanks but rather that the war simply entered a calmer phase.
This is how the period from January 1 to May 31, 2023, looked:

Summer and autumn 2023

In the summer of 2023, Ukraine went on the offensive. First, let’s look at how it looked between June 1 – the end of September. The average for the period was almost double compared to the calmer period before (see above): 7.29 tanks/day. It was also higher than during the first months of the year when fighting for Bachmut.

Initially in June, the Russians suffered quite high losses, they decreased again in July, and we were down to a seven-day average of under 4 tanks per day. It rose again slightly, but by the end of September, it was low again at only around 5-6/day. This despite Ukraine being on the offensive.

At that time, one could begin to suspect that the Russians might have had some trouble getting tanks. This is how it looked during that period:

Believing that the Russians were starting to run out of tanks turned out to be a big mistake.
On October 8-9, they launched an intense counteroffensive, and during the month, we saw enormous losses of Russian armor.
On October 12, they lost 44 tanks, and on October 20, 55 tanks. Here are the reports from those two days:

In October, the Russians lost an average of 16.77 tanks per day and a total of 520 for the month. This is how October looked:

So, the low losses in September were definitely not an indication that they were running out of tanks.

Summer and autumn 2024

The Russian offensive that began in October 2023 gradually subsided, but their losses were still very high compared to earlier in the war.

In August-September 2024, we started to see a decrease in Russian tank losses, and they were down to a very low level.
I must admit that at that point, I seriously began to suspect that they were indeed having trouble getting more tanks. Soldier losses were still high, but the tanks seemed to be fewer and fewer. Some days, we were down to just one tank per day, and the seven-day average was below 4 in the second week of September.

But as you can see in the image spanning from July 1 to September 30, tank losses increased significantly again towards the end of September.

Conclusions so far?

Now we have seen that just like today, losses have been as low and even lower.

If one tries to assess the Russians’ ability to supply tanks to Ukraine based on variations in losses, one must assess the current situation. The calm period after Bachmut had low losses, but it was not due to a shortage.
It is also not enough to look at individual days, weeks, or even one or two months. Losses have decreased several times but have then risen again.
So far, there is no indication that the situation is different from before and that Russia no longer has any tanks left.

Let’s therefore look at a longer perspective.
Here, I start from the peak in October 2023 until the end of last week.
Please note, losses are reported per week here to make the trend clearer.

Seen over the longer period, it suddenly becomes very clear that Russian tank losses have actually decreased over a long time (even though the curve has sharp peaks and valleys) and that it is quite certainly a trend that we are seeing.
Here is the same period but with daily losses; it’s not quite as easy to see the trend, but it is there:

For comparison, it may be interesting to look at how it is for other armored vehicles (APVs/AFVs) during the same period and per week:

Here we do not see the same long-term downward trend, but from mid-November, there is also a clear decline, and it has dropped drastically since mid-April.

What conclusions can be drawn regarding Russian tanks?

So, we can clearly state that tank losses are indeed a trend and that it is long-term.
It is also not due to lower intensity. Reports from the Ukrainian General Staff show that there are as many battles going on now as, for example, during the fall.
Tank losses have continued to decrease during periods of high soldier losses and where other armor has also had high losses.

Does it indicate that they are running out?

We mainly only have access to the losses and no exact conclusions can be drawn from that. The decrease could be due to Ukraine’s ability to stop them has decreased (not very likely), however, it is more likely that the Russians are actually using tanks to a lesser extent.

This is my analysis

The Russians’ supply of old tanks must have decreased significantly by now. They probably have more and more difficulty in bringing more tanks to the front in Ukraine. I don’t think they have run out, but rather have difficulty in bringing sufficient quantities.

Drones have made it much easier to take out tanks and armored vehicles.
The Russians have carried out many attacks with a few dozen armored vehicles and most of them are knocked out before they reach their target. To succeed in a breakthrough, large numbers of tanks are needed so that Ukraine does not manage to knock them all out. In the same way they overload Ukraine’s air defense with Shaheds.

I believe that the Russians have assessed that the cost of the losses is too high compared to the benefit of how they have used them so far. They have increasingly shifted to attacks almost entirely without tank support (and other armored vehicles) and with smaller groups of soldiers. It simply becomes the cheapest option. In Russia, soldiers are more like consumables.

So, I believe they have deliberately reduced the usage as it has become ineffective and too costly.
Therefore, I think they are trying to build up a larger number to potentially use them in a larger attack later on.
There is talk of a summer offensive and I believe we will soon see huge tank losses again.

Of course, I hope I am wrong and that they really have huge problems in bringing them forward.

What do you think? Are they running out or is it perhaps that the tank no longer has a place in modern warfare where drones are becoming increasingly important?
Feel free to participate in the comments section!

Thanks to Ragnar Gudmundsson for the numbers! https://bsky.app/profile/ragnarbjartur.bsky.social

Glory to Ukraine!