Did Russia give Venezuela to the USA? – Oil depot in Russian Belgorod is on fire after Ukrainian attack – Italy is not sending troops to Ukraine

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Ukraine has attacked an oil depot in Belgorod

Residents of Stary Oskol have reported that the oil depot in Belgorod is on fire. Several images and videos have been released, which can be considered as confirmation along with the local governor also reporting Ukrainian drone attacks. Read more on Kyiv Independent as well as posts here, and here.

Italy does not plan to send soldiers to Ukraine

The Coalition of the Willing has apparently made significant progress regarding the framework for security guarantees for Ukraine. No direct details have emerged (at least not that I have seen, if you have more information, please post in the comments). The U.S. seems even satisfied (not sure if it should be interpreted positively or negatively). However, Italy has clearly stated that they are supporting with equipment, etc. but will not send any troops to Ukraine. At least according to Reuters.

Did Russia give Venezuela to the USA in exchange for Ukraine?

All sorts of theories are circulating about the USA and Venezuela (beyond the obvious that the USA wants to seize and control the oil).

We have the theory that the USA, Russia, and China have discussed dividing the world among themselves. The USA gets South America, Russia takes Europe, and China takes the rest of Asia. The kidnapping of Maduro went very smoothly, which could be explained by neither China nor Russia doing much to help Venezuela. Of course, it could also be explained by already having allies within Venezuela’s government and military.

Another theory is that the USA is simply trying to weaken Russia by gradually eliminating or taking over the countries close to Russia.

It has now emerged that Fiona Hill, former senior advisor on Russia for the White House during Trump’s previous presidential term, already in 2019 during a congressional hearing, stated that the Russians offered the USA to do as they pleased with Venezuela in exchange for allowing Russia to do the same with Ukraine. The Russians also referred to the Monroe Doctrine at that time. The USA officially declined the proposal.

The doctrine dates back to 1823 and briefly states that Europe should not interfere in North and South America, and the USA should not interfere in Europe. It has later been used by the USA to legitimize its increasing influence over the Western Hemisphere.
Trump has referred to the doctrine on several occasions, or rather to the Don-roe Doctrine as it is also called, which is Trump’s own version. It states that the USA (and only the USA) has the right to act and govern over Latin America and the Caribbean. Europe, Russia, and China should stay away and not interfere. However, what has not been clarified is whether the USA should also refrain from acting outside the Western Hemisphere.

Fiona Hill’s testimony can therefore be interpreted as what happened in Venezuela was an agreement between the USA and Russia, and would explain why the USA has virtually stopped supporting Ukraine. It also increases the likelihood that it is a larger agreement where China is also involved and that Taiwan is included in the trade-off. China has sharpened its rhetoric regarding Taiwan at the same time as the USA has backed down on how important it considers Asia from a security perspective.

Regarding Taiwan, I believe that it is further down the line. The USA (and the whole world) would face enormous problems if it happened. Taiwan uses its own chip industry as security. If China attacks, the industry will be destroyed so that China cannot exploit it and continue to operate it. Then the question is whether Trump realizes the consequences if China attacks and Taiwan follows through on its threat. Perhaps it is believed that it would only be beneficial as the USA would then get rid of a competitor and could build up its own industry.

These are of course just speculations, but Fiona Hill’s testimony is interesting, even if what happened was not an exchange, it has been discussed already 6-7 years ago.

Article, Kyiv Independent and Hill’s testimony

Russian losses

  • 1040 KWIA
  • 3 Tanks
  • 2 AFVs
  • 26 Artillery systems
  • 2 MLRS
  • 406 UAVs
  • 122 Vehicles & fuel tanks
  • 1 Special equipment
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31 thoughts on “Did Russia give Venezuela to the USA? – Oil depot in Russian Belgorod is on fire after Ukrainian attack – Italy is not sending troops to Ukraine”

  1. MXT

    AFU reports:

    • 221 combat clashes
    • 90 aviation strikes (2 missiles)
    • 236 KAB
    • 3288 shelling (123 from LMLRS)
    • 6200 kamikaze drones

    High number of KAB and kamikaze drones.

  2. MXT

    There is speculation that the oil tanker may have some secret cargo that the Russians absolutely do not want to fall into the hands of the USA. Personally, I suspect that if it is filled with oil, it may be worth defending just for that reason, but apparently it is supposed to be empty.

    “Russia has sent a submarine to escort an oil tanker being pursued by the US military in the Atlantic, several media outlets report. For over two weeks, the ship has been trying to avoid the US blockade near Venezuela.

    The oil tanker was previously named Bella 1 and has historically transported Venezuelan crude oil. Now it is empty of cargo and is located somewhere between Scotland and Iceland, according to the BBC.

    The US Coast Guard began tracking the ship in December, reportedly leading the crew to paint a Russian flag on the side of the tanker, change its name, and register it in Russia.”
    https://omni.se/ryssland-skickar-ubat-till-oljetanker-som-foljs-av-usa/a/y53WqA
    https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-sends-submarine-to-escort-tanker-the-u-s-tried-to-seize-off-venezuela-4bd78dc7?mod=mhp

    1. MXT

      It will be interesting to see if the USA allows it to stay now that it has suddenly become Russian-registered. Will they release it despite having pursued it before.

  3. MXT

    👍✊ Ulf Kristersson on the meeting in Paris:

    “Good progress made today in Paris, when we in the Coalition of the Willing, Ukraine and the United States met to discuss peace in Ukraine. When a peace agreement is reached in Ukraine, Sweden stands ready to contribute to the security guarantees for Ukraine and the rest of Europe.

    We are ready to preserve the peace in Ukraine with, among other things: – Gripen fighter jets for air surveillance over Ukraine – Maritime resources for clearing mines in the Black Sea – Continuing our training of Ukrainian military officers.

    This was my message today in Paris at the meeting of the Coalition of the Willing. A prerequisite is of course for a peace deal to be reached, rules of engagement for the multinational force to be clear, and formal approval by the parliament. Sweden is prepared to do our part for peace in Europe.”
    Twitter:
    https://x.com/SwedishPM/status/2008657283279106227

    Article in DN:
    https://www.dn.se/direkt/ukraina/2026-01-06/kristersson-sverige-kan-bidra-med-gripenplan-till-ukraina/

  4. MXT

    “Between 30 and 50 million barrels of oil will be sent from Venezuela to ports in the USA, claims US President Donald Trump on his platform Truth Social. Trump states that he has asked Energy Minister Chris Wright to implement the plan ‘immediately’.

    ‘This oil will be sold at market price, and the money will be controlled by me, as the President of the USA, to ensure that it is used for the benefit of the people of Venezuela and the USA,’ writes Trump.

    According to Bloomberg, the oil is worth the equivalent of just over 25 billion Swedish kronor.”

    1. MXT

      Good, hits Russia! 

      Kind of strange how the market reacts. It won’t be possible to significantly increase production for a long time. Admittedly, the USA has had a blockade against Venezuela, which of course means that the oil can now come out from there, but it is still a very small share of the world market.

       
      “Oil prices fall during the morning after Donald Trump’s comments that between 30 and 50 million barrels of oil will be sent from Venezuela to the USA.

      Brent oil falls over 1 percent to $60 per barrel, while the American WTI oil loses 1.5 percent to around $56 per barrel.

      – This is confiscatory and imperialistic, and there is no justification for it, says Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, professor at the Yale School of Management, to the Financial Times.

      Sonnenfeld points out that there is also ”no need” for the oil, as the market already has a global surplus.

      Venezuela accounts for less than 1 percent of the world’s oil production, but if exports continue to stand still while stocks are full, further production cuts are expected. According to sources cited in the newspaper, the country’s oil production could fall by up to a third already ”within a few weeks” if trade does not resume.”
      https://omni.se/oljepriset-faller-konfiskatoriskt-och-imperialistiskt/a/3pJyGe

      1. Flurrevuppen

        As I understand it, Venezuela’s oil has a similar character to Canada’s.

        Perhaps the biggest impact is towards Canada’s oil exports to the USA? It is claimed that their oil quality is needed by refineries in the USA and that the USA itself has a limited supply of this quality.

        So… should the oil issue here be seen in connection with the trade conflict with Canada?

        1. MXT

          There may well be some truth in wanting to become independent of other countries when it comes to the need for heavier oil, mainly from Canada.

          Currently, there is no shortage of oil and it is cheap, but it is expected to be obtained almost for free from Venezuela, while securing the need for many years to come.

        2. CB500four

          Hmm, yes, it might happen that there is something to it. Trump has made enemies in the north, so he should secure the oil from elsewhere if the Canadians shut off the tap.

  5. MXT

    “US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Monday that the White House’s remarks about Greenland are not a signal of an imminent military invasion, but rather the goal is to buy the island from Denmark, according to sources to the Wall Street Journal.

    The announcement is said to have been made during a meeting with senior members of Congress, the day before the renewed threats from the White House on Tuesday.

    Rubio’s statement is said to have been a response to Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer’s question about whether the administration is considering further military operations after Venezuela.

    Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, one of Trump’s closest allies, says that the administration’s remarks about Greenland are “entirely a negotiation strategy.”

    – We need legal control and legal protection to justify building up the place and putting our people on the ground, he says.”

  6. MXT

    Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs expresses support for Venezuela’s newly sworn-in interim president Delcy Rodríguez, former vice president under Nicolás Maduro, reports New York Times.

    Her inauguration creates conditions for “peaceful and stable development” after the “neo-colonialist threats and external armed aggression” that the country has been subjected to, according to the department.

    Russia has demanded the release of Maduro and his wife, but has otherwise not taken any specific actions after the US captured them.

  8. MXT
    Germany is also not willing to send troops to Ukraine. Doesn’t sound promising when it comes to security guarantees for Ukraine.
    “German Chancellor Merz ruled out deploying German troops to Ukraine, even after a ceasefire. Speaking in Paris, he said Berlin’s support would remain political, financial, and military, but the scope would be decided post-ceasefire. Merz hinted at future debate but kept boots off the table.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mbszdcdulk2o
  10. MXT

    “A man from central Sweden is requested to be remanded in custody suspected of espionage committed between 2025 and 2026. The man, who is in his 30s, was arrested last Sunday, writes TT.

    The crimes the man is suspected of are said to have taken place from 2022 until the arrest. It is unclear which country or countries the man is suspected of having spied for.”
    https://omni.se/misstankt-spion-begars-haktad/a/xrPa7n

  13. MXT

    Russian media reports that American forces are currently attempting to board the shadow fleet tanker ‘Bella 1’/’Marinera’. The US Navy has been chasing the ship across the Atlantic from the coast of Venezuela for over two weeks now.

    1. maggan

      How can the navy chase an oil tanker for two weeks and not catch up? It must be a mistranslation, or that the navy is right next to it and the tanker refuses to stop? How difficult can it be to board a boat, if you have access to the resources of the American navy?

      1. MXT

        Yes, a bit strange.

        If they managed to pass without the USA making visual contact with them and they turned off the AIS (Automatic Identification System), maybe it’s not so easy to track them down? The ocean is vast and there are many ships to monitor. At least they have been stopped now.

  14. MXT

    💥 Ukraine hit Russian fuel and military targets in Belgorod. The Ukrainian General Staff says forces struck the Oskolneftesnab oil depot and a troop warehouse, sparking a large fire at the fuel site.

  17. MXT

    “Russian flags and symbols associated with Russia are prohibited during the Olympics in Milan and Cortina, according to a decision by the International Olympic Committee (IOC). This is reported by Radiosporten.

    The ban is being introduced after Russian flags were seen in the audience during the Tour de Ski in Val di Fiemme. There, the Russian athlete Savelij Korosteljov competed under a neutral status and expressed joy over the support from some fans waving Russian flags.”

  18. MXT

    Trump Approval Ratings

    Mixed results, according to The Economist he remains at -17% (even though it has actually decreased, but they seem to use their weighted line as a reference point and not the actual measurement).

     

    However, things look more positive for him according to the New York Times where he lands at -12%.
    The dissatisfied have decreased slightly and the satisfied have increased. NYT’s survey consists of several weighted surveys and should be more accurate than The Economist (whose survey is also included).

    There haven’t been as many surveys as usual due to the holidays and perhaps Venezuela hasn’t had time to make an impact. It will be interesting to follow in the coming weeks.

     

  19. MXT

    No DONALD, the USA did NOT pay for any other country, and no country pays the USA any money for NATO. The countries contribute to their OWN defense, although there is of course a SMALL fee for the management of the central administration!

    Unfortunately, you are probably right that China and Russia are more afraid of the USA than of the other countries in NATO, but that may largely be because you are unpredictable. However, it is NOT thanks to you that Russia has not taken over Ukraine. You have succumbed to GRANDEUR and the way you behave, you may actually be right that the rest of NATO will not help the USA, but that’s what happens when you bully your friends!

    “Without my involvement, Russia would have all of Ukraine right now. The only Nation that China and Russia fear and respect is the DJT rebuilt U.S.A.” — Trump”
    https://bsky.app/profile/kyivpost.com/post/3mbtpswdvgs27

    1. CB500four

      He is probably incredible, in a negative way. And it’s only getting worse.

      If Trump hadn’t kept flirting with Putin and repeatedly hindered Ukraine, the war might have been over by now.

      Russia and probably China as well respect, or rather fear, the military power of the USA, they do not respect the USA for anything other than their military power. So it’s becoming the same for the rest of the world too. Previously, the Western world respected the USA for its values and the security provided by its military and economic power. That is no longer the case.

      How will the USA manage when the rest of the world despises the USA because of its values and policies? A country, no matter how militarily strong it is, also needs friends.

      Europe must also have a strong military so that we can defend our values against despots like Putin and Trump, they only understand the language of power.

       

       

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