Pakistan and India

The background to the conflict in Pakistan and India, what the conflict could mean for Ukraine, and a brief comparison between the countries.

BACKGROUND

In 1947, British India was divided into two independent states: India and Pakistan. The division led to extensive violence and migration, largely due to religious affiliations. Jammu and Kashmir (Princely state) had a Muslim majority but was ruled by a Hindu maharaja, and they chose to join India after being invaded by Pakistani tribes.

This triggered the first war between India and Pakistan in 1947–1948, resulting in a ceasefire negotiated with the help of the UN, and establishing borders in the form of a Line of Control (LoC), dividing the region between the two countries.
Despite this, both India and Pakistan claim the entire Kashmir region even though it has been divided between them since then, and despite several attempts to mediate between the parties.

India and Pakistan have fought several wars since the first one.

• 1965: A war over Kashmir that ended in a stalemate.
• 1971: A war resulting in Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan.
• 1999: The Kargil Conflict, where Pakistani soldiers and militant groups infiltrated Indian positions in Kashmir.

In addition to these, there have been several border skirmishes, diplomatic crises, and terrorist attacks by militant groups.
Some of the groups involved seek independence from both India and Pakistan, while others want the region to unite with Pakistan.

• Hizbul Mujahideen: One of the oldest and most influential groups, aiming to unite Kashmir with Pakistan.
• Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT): A Pakistan-based Islamist group responsible for the 2008 Mumbai attacks. They have been active in Kashmir and are linked by India to several terrorist acts.
• Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM): An Islamist militant group from Pakistan responsible for several attacks.
• The Resistance Front (TRF): A relatively new group, believed to be a front organization for Lashkar-e-Taiba or a breakaway group. They have claimed responsibility for several attacks in recent years.

Thus, the situation in Kashmir has been tense for a long time, with numerous terrorist attacks carried out in the past:

• In 1989, an organized armed uprising began in the Indian-controlled part of Jammu and Kashmir. It started with peaceful protests and discontent among the Muslim population but quickly escalated into militant uprisings.
• From 1990 to 1996, violent clashes took place, leading to almost the entire Hindu population (Kashmiri Pandits) in the Kashmir Valley being forced to flee.
• In 2001, the Indian Parliament was attacked, which India claimed originated from Pakistan. This led to a serious escalation where both countries mobilized troops along the border.
• In 2008, over 270 people were killed in terrorist attacks in Bombay (Mumbai) over four days. India blamed Lashkar-e-Taiba, with support from the ISI (Pakistani intelligence agency).
• In 2016, the so-called Uri attack took place on an Indian military base. India accused the Pakistani group Jaish-e-Mohammed and responded with targeted attacks on Pakistani territory.
• In 2019, a suicide attack in Pulwama killed over 40 Indian soldiers. Jaish-e-Mohammed claimed responsibility. India responded with airstrikes on Balakot in Pakistan – the first time in decades that Indian aircraft attacked inside Pakistan.
• From 2023 to 2025, The Resistance Front has carried out several minor attacks and targeted killings of Hindus, local politicians, and Indian soldiers.
  

Other factors contributing to the conflict besides Kashmir

• Religious and ethnic tensions between the Muslim majority in Kashmir and the Hindu-dominated Indian state.
• Political alienation – many young people in Kashmir feel marginalized by India’s central government.
• Economic underdevelopment in certain parts of the region.
• Militarization and police abuses, including allegations of human rights violations, leading to radicalization.
• External influence, especially from Pakistan, which India claims funds and trains militant groups.

Water resources
The Indus River system consists of six major rivers: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. Several of these have their sources in Indian-controlled Kashmir and flow into Pakistan. Pakistan is highly dependent on water supply from India for both drinking water and agriculture.

In 1960, an agreement called the “Indus Water Treaty” was signed with the World Bank as a mediator. The agreement mainly stipulated that:

• Pakistan gets exclusive control over the western rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.
• India gets control over the eastern rivers: Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.
• India can use the western rivers for non-consumptive purposes like hydropower, as long as it does not reduce the flow to Pakistan.

The agreement is considered very successful as it has been upheld for many years despite the conflicts, but this time India seems to have chosen to partially violate it (if the available information is accurate). Some more extreme voices in India want to completely discard the agreement. This would pose enormous problems for Pakistan.
Water resources have not been a basis for the conflicts before, even though India has previously threatened to cut off the supply.

The relationship between India and Pakistan is undeniably complex. Historical events naturally influence it, as well as geopolitical interests, religion, and to some extent, water supply for Pakistan.

CURRENT CONFLICT

In April 2025, the conflict escalated with the attack in Pahalgam, an Indian-controlled tourist resort. 26 people, mostly Hindu tourists, were killed. The group The Resistance Front (TRF) initially claimed responsibility but later retracted it. India accused Pakistan of supporting the attack, which Islamabad denied.

In response, on May 7, India carried out “Operation Sindoor,” targeting nine sites in Pakistan, including locations in Bahawalpur, Muridke, and Muzaffarabad, which India claimed were terrorist infrastructure. Pakistan reported that 31 civilians were killed and 57 injured in the attacks, stating they had shot down several Indian fighter jets and also fired artillery.

Recent reports suggest that India and Pakistan engaged in an aerial combat involving 125 fighter jets.

This escalation has led to a serious diplomatic crisis, with severed diplomatic ties, closed borders, and restricted airspace. International leaders, including UN Secretary-General António Guterres, have expressed concern and called for restraint.

HOW DOES THE CONFLICT AFFECT UKRAINE IN THE WAR WITH RUSSIA?

It is difficult to make a comprehensive analysis, as much depends on how it unfolds, whether it escalates into full-scale war or de-escalates.

One immediate impact is, of course, the shift in focus, with the media now reporting more on the new conflict than on the Ukraine war.
This could lead to Ukraine being forgotten, especially among private individuals, which may reflect in reduced donations.
If the conflict escalates, there is also the risk that major aid organizations shift some of their efforts.
Diplomatically, the India-Pakistan conflict naturally receives more attention today.

If the recent events lead to full-scale war, the countries will likely start competing for available military resources, both in terms of weapons and ammunition. This may affect Ukraine more in terms of ammunition than Russia, which, along with North Korea, seems to have a relatively good supply. Ukraine is more dependent on external partners, who may choose to deliver to either India or Pakistan.

China is close to both Russia and Pakistan and may intervene and threaten India.
India, on the other hand, claims neutrality regarding the Ukraine war but could choose to support Ukraine if China gets involved. India does not directly supply Ukraine, so it may not have a significant practical impact. However, India may see China as a significant threat and decide to align with Russia to prevent Chinese involvement.
The USA, on its part, will also be drawn into the conflict if it chooses to support India, in which case Ukraine may also receive support from the USA. Although US support is minimal at the moment, the mineral agreement is recent, so we cannot predict what may happen.

The oil price is at risk of rising, as it usually does in conflicts, which will benefit Russia.

Unfortunately, the conflict is likely to benefit Russia more than it benefits Ukraine. So, for the sake of the populations of India and Pakistan, and for Ukraine’s part, we must hope that full-scale war does not break out, or if it does, that it will be short-lived. It is not far-fetched to suspect that the attacks that initiated the conflict were orchestrated from Russia, but considering all the years of unrest and terrorist attacks, it may have been only a matter of time.

---

FACTS ABOUT INDIA AND PAKISTAN

Military Capacity and Nuclear Weapons

India
Military personnel: Approximately 1.4 million active soldiers.
Nuclear weapons: ~130–140 nuclear warheads.

Pakistan
Military personnel: Approximately 650,000 active soldiers.
Nuclear weapons: ~140–150 nuclear warheads.

Both countries possess nuclear weapons; the difference is that India has a “no first use” doctrine that, at least on paper, prevents them from striking first. Pakistan lacks a similar doctrine.

International Alliances and Relations
India
USA: Strategic partnership, especially in defense and technology.
Russia: Historical defense partner, although ties have weakened in recent years.
Japan and Australia: Part of the Quad cooperation to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

Pakistan
China: Strong ally, particularly in economics and defense.
Saudi Arabia and Turkey: Key partners in economic and military cooperation.
USA: Former close relations, especially during the Cold War and the war on terror, but today the ties are not as strong.

Demographics and Economy
India
Population: Approximately 1.46 billion (2025).
GDP per capita: Estimated to be around 2,382 USD (2025).
Economy: One of the world’s fastest-growing economies, with strong sectors in IT, services, and manufacturing.

Pakistan
Population: Approximately 240.5 million (2025).
GDP per capita: Estimated to be around 1,365 USD (2025).
Economy: Facing challenges such as high inflation, indebtedness, and dependence on international aid.