42 thoughts on “Russian losses”

    5. Jan W

      Presumably very effective if one can attack not only infrastructure such as ports but also the ships in the shadow fleet. Ship owners and crews have reason to take notice.

      I find it hard to believe that the ship owner has any insurance money to collect for the vessel. If such attacks occur more frequently, it poses an enormous risk to transport Russian oil. Unless the Russian state is willing to compensate for destroyed ships, of course. However, the Russian state is not exactly known for showing compassion to those affected by the war. Compensation from the Russian state for destroyed ships (insurance) might possibly be considered if it is the only way to charter the ships. In any case, that’s one less ship. Hopefully, she was also at least partially loaded. Hopefully, important installations in the port were also destroyed.

  3. 205

    A decreasing pressure overall, but some increase, continued very strong pressure in Pokrovsk with neighboring sectors.

    Of the AFU reported 143 battles, only 118 were distributed along the reported front sectors as below. Thus signs of a considerable number (25) of battles/attacks that are not counted as initiated by the invading Russian army.

    • N Slobozhansky-Kursk 5↘️
    • S Slobozhansky 9💥↗️
    • Kupyansk 3↘️
    • Lyman 5↘️
    • Slovyansk 5↘️
    • Kramatorsk 0↘️

    • Kostjantynivka 19💥↗️

    • Pokrovsk 50💥💥💥

    • Oleksandrivskij 18💥

    • Huliaypillia 1↘️
    • Orikhivsk 2↘️
    • Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 1↘️
  5. 205

    One can suspect frustration from the Russian side regarding set goals that are not being achieved or significantly delayed due to an effective Ukrainian defense and counterattacks, which we know are happening, at least according to the Ukrainian army’s general staff themselves. To this, one can probably add the Ukrainian targeting of important war-supporting infrastructure on Russian territory. This could also stress the generals at the front in the form of pressure from above (the Kremlin). And it can explain the deployment of armor despite nothing happening regarding its weakness in the drone-rich war landscape, perhaps the opposite. It has been confirmed that the armor attacks that the Russians have undertaken recently have failed, with casualties on the level of Vuhledar 2024(?) 

    1. MXT

      Well, it doesn’t seem like they’ve had any major successes this time either. They launched a major attack when we suffered really high losses of 37 units in a single day (although as usual it may have been accumulated over a few days). We’ll see if they continue to try or if it will go down again. Today’s loss report seems to indicate the latter. 

  6. Masja_13

    Thank you MXT!
    I assume that in the first chart, the upper green curve is for 2024 and the lower one for 2023…
    And what happened after the 20th of October 2023? Clearly different numbers. I must have forgotten about that.

    1. MXT

      Thank you!

      Yes, that’s correct, it’s 2024 that is the upper limit.

      A week into October 2023, Russia launched a major counteroffensive after Ukraine’s summer offensive lost momentum.

      During October and even into September, the Russians suffered enormous losses, mainly of armor.
      On the 20th of October, records were set for both tanks (55) and other armor (120), and it still stands to this day.

      After that, the losses of tanks began to steadily decrease until today (although there have been some fluctuations along the way), and we can sense an upward trend now towards the end.

      However, the losses of other armor continued to rise, and the peak was not reached until a year later, in October 2024, but since then, they have also been declining.

      Here you can see both tanks and other armor with monthly summaries (sometimes easier to get an overview):

  7. 205

    🧵1/10 🤡 The leader of “DNR” Pushilin boasts about “film from Pokrovsk”

    In turn, Julian @JulianRoepcke, journalist at the German newspaper @BILD and well-known military analyst, has geolocated Pushilin’s video. ..

    It turned out that the leader of the “DNR” militants is actually located in #Ocheretino, which is 32 kilometers from #Pokrovsk.

    🧵2-10: https://x.com/anno1540/status/1984887089142312994?s=46

     

  8. MXT

    I like the idea that Ukraine is the spearhead and we who donate and support in various ways are the ones holding the spear shaft. It’s not an expression we’ve used here, mostly on the other blog. The idea may therefore fall flat with some of you for that reason, but in the end, it’s about supporting Ukraine so I’m giving it a try.

    Initially, I thought about possibly printing T-shirts or something with that theme and donating the surplus, but for various reasons, it didn’t happen.

    Some time ago, I came up with the idea that instead one could make a medal/collector’s coin with that theme, and after looking into it further, (almost) all pieces fell into place.

    The best part is that production can take place in Ukraine (which has a double effect), but the downside is that a minimum order of 50 pieces is required, as well as advance payment.

    Since I have no idea at all about the level of interest, I simply don’t dare to put out tens of thousands of crowns if it turns out that I have to keep all the coins myself.

    Therefore, I have set up a page where you can read more about the idea with the coin and where those who think it’s a good idea can submit an expression of interest (anonymously if desired):

    https://spjutskaftet.se/intresseanmalan-mynt-4c893c/

    1. alfaomega

      I like the idea as such. Anything that contributes to strengthening Ukraine is good. Have you thought about pins? I assume you are also checking the interest on the other blog?

      1. MXT

        Pins are a good idea because it’s something you can wear to spread the message and maybe provide a reason to discuss Ukraine.

        I prefer to find Ukrainian production, but maybe Klamaa could also make pins!
        I’ll look into it!

        Yes, I also posted it on Cornucopia (first emailed LW and asked for permission, he has sometimes been a bit annoyed with those who have used his blog to promote themselves and their products) but he liked the idea so I got the OK.

    2. MXT

      Update:

      The response has been beyond expectations!

      So far, 164 expressions of interest have been received, out of which 136 have responded that they are interested. 
      Of course, it is often the case that some may change their minds before it is time to actually place a real order, but now I know that this will happen! 

      I thought it might take a couple of weeks to hopefully gather 50 interested individuals.

      There have also been some feedback and ideas that I will take with me.

      I will leave the expression of interest form up for another week, but now I know that I can proceed both in communicating with Klamra and in starting to set up an online shop!

      A huge thank you to all of you who have taken the time to fill out the expression of interest form!

       

  9. 205

    2 October – 2 November, Kupiansk, Pokrovsk, diff AFU🇺🇦 General Staff map.

     

    Updated with a new image of Pokrovsk. General Staff maps have a tendency to shift the zoom area, which is natural over a month’s time as the front line never remains completely still.

    In this case, it turns out that the corrected Pokrovsk map shows almost exclusively blue areas, which Ukraine has taken during the period of 2 Oct-2 Nov. There is a somewhat red area far up north, but quite far from Pokrovsk.

    It is worth noting that these maps are published together with the morning report from AFU, and they always illustrate what is described in the text, and the attack sites (poles) and terrain should match and thus have the same reliability as the daily loss report coming from the same source at the same time from AFU. Trusting AFU’s reports on losses, it is therefore also clear (assuming my diff is correct as well) that AFU has advanced around Pokrovsk in a complete circle, and the Russians have barely moved except for an area in the north quite far from Pokrovsk. In addition to this, we should also consider reports from various generals and Gregg stating that it is difficult to make maps when the battlefield consists of a mosaic of both Ukrainian and Russian positions.

     

    Kupiansk:

    Pokrovsk:

  10. MXT

    Gameification even in war. Then I wonder if it’s the right path to take. Those who underperform will only have a harder and harder time catching up, and they may also find themselves on a quiet front line or where the Russians have a strong advantage. I hope that resources are not allocated solely based on performance.

    “Ukraine’s renowned point system in the war against Russia is continuously adjusted in line with new assessments from the military leadership, writes the New York Times in a report.

    When the system was introduced in 2024, a killed Russian soldier was worth two points. It has been changed several times and is now up to twelve. The reason is that Ukraine assesses that they need to kill or seriously injure 25,000 Russian soldiers every month.

    The units report their points and can then use them on the Brave 1 marketplace to acquire new defense equipment.

    – It’s a brutal game where human lives are exchanged for points, says the Ukrainian drone operator “Stun” in a report in the New York Times.

    Ukraine’s Digital Minister Mychaljo Fedorov, who developed the point system, claims that it boosts morale and ensures that resources go to the units performing best on the battlefield.

    – This helps us to stop the enemy.”
    https://omni.se/ukraina-andrar-poangsystem-dodad-rysk-soldat-vard-sex-ganger-sa-mycket/a/Gyzojl

  11. MXT

    “Six people, including two children, have been killed in Russian attacks on Ukraine overnight to Sunday, reports AFP.

    “Russian forces attacked the regions of Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa. Six people have died, including two children,” Ukraine’s prosecutor general wrote on Telegram.

    Another ten people are said to have been injured in the attacks.

    In the Zaporizhzhia region, around 58,000 households were left without power after attacks on energy facilities.”

  12. MXT

    “In Ryssland’s Murmansk Oblast, som gränsar till Finland, spårade fem tankvagnar lastade med petroleumprodukter ur den 1 november vid stationen Komsomolsk-Murmansky. Myndigheterna sa att inga läckage eller skador registrerades.”

  15. Umlaut

    Regarding fiber optic drones, these should also be possible to disrupt, but with more advanced systems. They also have electric motors, so some electromagnetic countermeasure should work, right?

    1. MXT

      I have been waiting for something EMP-like with targeted effect, but unfortunately it’s not that simple.
      From what I understand, there are some solutions being developed but not much is ready yet, and it requires a huge amount of energy to provide range.

      Perhaps it’s not the engines that would be affected in the first place, but drones are full of chips and other circuits that could be fried by an EMP.

      One could hope that some of those developing EMP defense would lend some equipment to Ukraine for field tests…

  16. Umlaut

    Hopefully, the increased presence of armor is what MXT speculates on, that it is pure impatience. It rhymes quite well with the Afghans’ “you have the watches, we have the time.”

  19. MXT

    “President Zelensky confirmed that Ukraine’s Patriot air defense capabilities have been strengthened, thanking Germany and Chancellor Friedrich Merz for fulfilling prior agreements.”

  21. MXT

    “The hell of Pokrovsk is deepening. Russian troops from the 170,000-strong grouping push further into the city, DeepState reported Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, led by Kyrylo Budanov, is conducting a counter-operation to stabilize the situation”
    https://bsky.app/profile/euromaidanpress.bsky.social/post/3m4nrvjyogy2u
    https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/11/02/ukraine-is-fighting-for-every-block-in-pokrovsk-as-170000-strong-grouping-continues-to-infiltrate/

  23. MXT

    Serbia is ready to supply ammunition to Europe under long-term contracts, with buyers free to send it to Ukraine, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić told German publication Cicero. Serbia produces more ammunition than France, Vučić stated.

  24. MXT

    I hope that they will also practice more hmm, complex maneuvers than just for surveillance.

    “The Volunteer Air Corps (FFK), one of Sweden’s 18 volunteer defense organizations, is focusing on training drone pilots. This is reported by SVT News Småland.

    There is a great demand from authorities, says Per-Åke Persson, FFK’s county aviation chief in Kronoberg County.

    – One factor is searching for missing persons. Another could be if we have a tangled traffic situation, floods, or other situations where we can create an overview.

    Drone pilots can also be helpful in police work or during large demonstrations and gatherings, he adds.”
    https://omni.se/frivilliga-flygkaren-satsar-pa-dronarpiloter/a/73XXKK

  25. MXT

    🇺🇦Pokrovsk direction (Rodynske area): The situation here remains tense, but a ray of hope has appeared. Our Cossacks managed to break into the city limits and secured positions in the northern sector, as well as closer to the center on the eastern side. The fighters were able to hold their positions under heavy fire, despite FAB strikes that the enemy is now raining down on the area, trying to drive our groups out of the blocks. 🇺🇦In the footage from visual control, these hits are clearly visible—meaning the presence of our units in the city is still being recorded. The enemy is nervous, trying to suppress the topic and switch to their usual “victory madness,” but the fact remains: Rodynske is not fully under their control! 🇺🇦I also notice an expansion of the gray zone between the lines, which could work to our advantage. If everything goes right, we will be able to use this space to regroup and push the enemy further from the outskirts. 🌚Despite the difficult situation, it is not worth losing faith; it is not over yet. There is a feeling that this battle for Rodynske is not yet finished, & the finale may not be what the enemy imagines.

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