Russian losses in Ukraine 2025-04-13

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Good morning!

1220 KWIA
12 Tanks
33 APVs
71 Artillery systems
1 Anit-aircraft system
147 UAVs
143 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
1 Special equipment

There have been long losses of tanks for a period, but yesterday and today it has been in double digits again.
Looking at the period from October 2023 (when the Russians started their offensive), the average is about 10.4.

Every time tank losses decrease, hope awakens that they are finally running out of them.
The truth is that the losses seem to follow more or less uneven cycles.
See the image below where I have drawn some lines at the peaks.
The top graph is tanks, one step down is KWIA, and at the bottom are APVs.
Right now, it is clearly cycling with almost the same amplitude, and sometimes there are larger differences.
It is not always clear cycles, and peaks and valleys follow each other, as seen when compared to the summer of 2024.
If the trend continues, we should soon be entering a short period of increased Russian losses.
Thanks again to Ragnar! https://bsky.app/profile/ragnarbjartur.bsky.social

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88 thoughts on “Russian losses in Ukraine 2025-04-13”

  1. MatsExtrude
    AFU: “In total, for yesterday, 120 combat clashes were recorded.”
    The enemy caused 135 aviation strikes at the positions of Ukrainian units and settlements, dropped 249 controlled bombs. In addition, carried out more than 6600 shells, of which 157 are from jet systems of salpovogo fire, and involved 2709 kamikaze drones for impact.”
  4. MatsExtrude

    That’s what we’ve been saying all along, good that it’s finally starting to sink in!

    “Putin must understand that he has no chance of winning this war militarily. In my opinion, we should have given Ukraine stronger support from the very beginning. Then the war could have ended today.” — Incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz”

    1. Kons

      Yes, I look forward to Mertz taking office and putting actions behind the words. There has been an enormous lead time in Germany since the election, which in turn took a very long time before it was held. How long has he not been “incoming”?

  5. MatsExtrude

    Now they not only want to take over Ukraine’s natural resources, but they also want to have control over the gas that passes (or rather passed for the time being) through Ukraine.

    “The USA demands full control over the gas pipeline
    – a hidden surprise – in the latest document is that the USA demands that an American state-owned company gets full control over the gas pipeline that goes through Ukraine to Europe and previously transported gas from the Russian giant Gazprom.”

  6. MatsExtrude

    “The EU’s defense plan faces opposition in debt-ridden Italy
    The EU’s plans to finance a major defense initiative through loans have not been well received in Italy, reports GP. There, people are demonstrating out of fear that the EU’s plan will push the already debt-ridden Italian economy towards a crisis.”

    1. Westley Richard

      A bit of a shame if the friend of Ukraine were to lose their support just because the Italians (as usual) want someone else to pay.

    2. N Eklund

      ”There, people are demonstrating out of fear that the EU’s plan will push the already debt-ridden Italian economy towards a crisis.

      I seem to recall that the Italian state is in debt up to its ears, but the Italians, as private individuals, have low debts. In Sweden, it’s the opposite, which probably reflects the different views people have on the state in each country…”

  7. MatsExtrude

    Soon he will probably be kicked out!

    “Contempt for Musk in Trump’s administration: “Like rusty nails against a chalkboard”
    Some ministers and high-ranking officials in the Trump administration have become deeply irritated with Elon Musk. Secretary of State Marco Rubio does not hide his contempt for Musk, and some at the State Department have started calling him “Crazy Uncle Elon,” according to several knowledgeable sources to Rolling Stone.”
    https://omni.se/forakt-mot-musk-i-trumps-administration-som-rostiga-spikar-mot-griffeltavla/a/1MbbRq

  8. MatsExtrude

    USA’s meeting with Iran.
    Before the meeting, strong threats are issued.

    “Sources: Trump has given Iran 60 days to avoid war
    According to four informed sources to Politico, US President Donald Trump has issued an ultimatum in a letter to Iran’s top leadership: Show progress in talks on the country’s nuclear energy program within 60 days, otherwise there could be war.
    – Iran has a choice to make. You can agree to President Trump’s demands or all hell will break loose, says White House press secretary Karoline Heavitt according to AP.

    https://omni.se/kallor-trump-har-gett-iran-60-dagar-att-undvika-krig/a/EyngGP

    The talks are ongoing:
    “Iran and the USA have initiated talks in Oman to try to reach a new nuclear energy agreement. It is the first time in several years that the countries are holding talks at such a high level.

    In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Witkoff says that the USA’s absolute requirement is for Iran’s nuclear energy program to be dismantled.

    – But that doesn’t mean that we can’t find other ways to compromise between the countries alongside that.”
    https://omni.se/samtalen-igang-usa-oppnar-for-kompromisser/a/OoAAnE

    A little has been written after the meeting:

    “The USA wanted to meet face to face but instead there were “indirect talks” with Iran in the Omani capital Muscat, reports AFP.

    – So, this is just the beginning. So it is natural, at this stage, for both sides to state their basic positions through Oman’s mediators, said Iranian spokesperson Esmail Baghaei to state TV while the talks were ongoing.

    After the meeting concluded, Iran then announced that both sides’ mediators met and spoke with each other “for a few minutes,” writes AFP.”
    https://omni.se/samtalen-over-iran-och-usa-satt-i-separata-rum/a/dR22Jz

    “Both the USA and Iran have now described today’s talks in Oman as “constructive” and both sides agree to meet again next Saturday, report several media outlets. The talks were positive and a step forward towards reaching an agreement that benefits both sides, according to the White House as reported by Reuters.
    Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei had previously forbidden talks with the USA. But in a conversation with officials, he was explained that military attacks on the country’s nuclear facilities would be inevitable if Iran refused negotiations, according to informed sources to the New York Times.
    – Khamenei’s turnaround shows how his long-standing core value is that “the preservation of the regime is the most necessary of all necessities,” says former Iranian diplomat Hossein Mousavian to the newspaper.”
    https://omni.se/kallor-ayatollan-vande-for-att-radda-iranska-regimen/a/Rzppw5

    It is too early to say that any real progress has been made, but the fact that the initial meeting took place is still positive and shows that Iran is taking the threats from the USA seriously, and they probably realize that they would be the biggest losers if they do not give in.

    The idea of the USA starting a war with Iran over the nuclear issue currently feels remote.

  10. MatsExtrude

    Interesting article in DN:

    “ODESSA. War-wounded soldiers calm their nerves in a tea salon, but get angry when a ceasefire in the Black Sea and Donald Trump are mentioned.

    In the shadow of the customs chaos, Russia has escalated the attacks and killed nine Ukrainian children.

    – I get angry. All sensible people understand that the Russians never keep agreements, says “Freud,” a 29-year-old soldier.”
    https://www.dn.se/varlden/ukrainsk-soldat-trump-bryr-sig-inte-om-vara-liv/

  11. 205

    The number of attacks continues to decrease, including in Pokrovsk. In the last 24 hours, there has been an increase in the number of attacks in Kramatorsk.

    Operational information as of 08.00 on 13.04.2025 on the Russian invasion

    A total of 120↘️combat engagements were recorded yesterday.

    #Kharkiv 2
    #Kupyansk 2↘️
    #Lyman 18💥
    #Siverskyi 3
    #Kramatorsk 11↗️💥
    #Toretsk 16💥
    #Pokrovsk 31💥💥
    #Novopavlivka 5
    #Huliaipil 0
    #Orikhivsk 1
    #Prydniprovsky 4
    #Kursk 23💥

    In the Lyman sector, the AFRF🇷🇺 attacked 18 times. They tried to advance near the settlements of Nadiya, Tverdokhlibove, Novomykhailivka, Katerynivka, Nove and in the directions of Olgivka, Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyna, Zarichne, and Torske.

    In the Kramatorsk sector, 11 firefights were registered in the vicinity of Chasovyi Yar, in the direction of Predtechyne, and west of Andriivka.

    In the Toretsk sector, the AFRF🇷🇺 carried out 16 attacks in the areas of Dachne, Diliyivka, Shcherbynivka, and Toretsk.

    In the Pokrovsk sector, AFU🇺🇦 stopped 31 assault and offensive actions of the AFRF🇷🇺 towards Kalynove, Yelizavetivka, Uspenivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Novosergiivka, Troitske, Kotlyarivka, Preobrazhenka, Vodiane Druhe, Novoukrainka, Andriivka, and in the area of Sribne.

    In the operational zone in the Kursk region, 23 combat engagements of varying intensity took place yesterday. In addition, the AFRF🇷🇺 launched 71 air strikes using 133 guided aerial bombs, and fired 542 artillery shells at AFU🇺🇦s troops’ positions and localities, including 15 from multiple launch rocket systems.

    Over the past day, the aviation, missile forces, and artillery of the Defense Forces hit seven areas of concentration of personnel and equipment, six artillery pieces, two command posts, and three air defense facilities of the Russian invaders.

  12. MatsExtrude

    Even SVT has managed to produce something worth watching!

    “Missing snow tracks, disappeared tanks, and activity in previously untouched ‘graveyards.’

    Fresh satellite images show how Russian tank depots are being emptied – and how new methods are being used to fill the gaps at the front, according to the Ukrainian analysis group Resurgam.
    But during the second half of 2025, the stored tanks suitable for renovation will run out, according to Resurgam’s and the osint group Vijskovij Vichuns’ analysis.”
    https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/bas-for-bas-har-forsvinner-putins-pansarforrad

  16. DJ

    The Russian tanks are a bit like oil. People have understood that it never runs out, so instead they talk about peak oil. But even that is difficult to predict.

    1. MatsExtrude

      Well, it will never completely run out, of course.

      The long-term trend from October 2023 is still slightly downward.

      What we don’t know is how much they have left in stock. When all the old ones are gone, they must completely switch to new production, and the question is whether they can then maintain deliveries at the same pace.

      But in the worst case, it may take another year or two before all the stocks are emptied.

    2. Westley Richard

      Strange that the Russians don’t fill their old tank depots with decoys so that the world won’t realize how bad it really is.

    1. N Eklund

      One of the world’s most famous stories, the one about Adam and Eve, is about them living in paradise but then they are given information that causes them to be cast out from it. That is, if you want to maintain paradise, you must limit the possibility for information to spread. Or, if you believe that you are living in paradise, it is probably because you lack information. Sweden is often seen as a paradise, but then we are also good at pushing back against dissenting opinions, only to then, when it is no longer possible, turn around all at once (when the Social Democrats have given the signal).

      1. Westley Richard

        Time to reintroduce the ban on satellite dishes, commercial radio, and a lot of other things that have ruined our paradise.
        It was more exciting when you could “eavesdrop” on Radio Luxembourg 👂

  19. ANDERS RYDEN

    Scissors from Wikipedia:
    “Nasser had earlier nationalised by transferring administrative control from the foreign-owned Suez Canal Company to Egypt’s new government-owned Suez Canal Authority.[e] Shortly after the invasion began, the three countries came under heavy political pressure from both the United States and the Soviet Union, as well as from the United Nations, eventually prompting their withdrawal from Egypt. The Crisis demonstrated that the United Kingdom and France could no longer pursue their independent foreign policy without consent from the United States.”

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Crisis

    Considering the “Signal gate” and Europe’s “freeloading”.
    Historically, the USA and Russia have wanted a militarily weak Europe.
    Now, Trump has made that order impossible in the future.

    I guess that soon there will be a “EU 2.0” proposal where the United Kingdom is one of the initiators.
    Where a common defense is one of the cornerstones of a new European regulation.

  20. MatsExtrude

    “Rysk missilattack mot Sumy idag.

    Missilen träffade stadens centrum. Lokala myndigheter rapporterar att många människor är döda och skadade.

    Söndagsmorgonen före påsk är en tid då många ukrainare går till kyrkan. Och Ryssland valde denna tid för sin attack.”

    4. CB500four

      uza, who previously always emphasized that they never negotiate with terrorists, is now negotiating with terrorists.
      Russia and Hamas have many similarities in their way of working.
      -Both consider that their neighboring country has no right to exist.
      -Both consider that if someone wants to negotiate with them, they see it as a partial victory and escalate.
      -Both kidnap civilians.
      -Both use torture.
      -Both use civilians as shields.
      -Both see their civilians and soldiers as expendable.
      -Both constantly lie.
      How can one then defeat such a pack?
      There are sensible people both in Russia and in Gaza, but it is the lunatics who get to rule. The top of the power pyramid should be removed, but in both cases, there is no democratic system that can take over, so if you remove the leadership, it falls apart.
      However, I have greater hope for Gaza than for Russia. Gaza can be governed from the Palestinian government in the West Bank.
      Russia in its current form should not be allowed to continue, it has played out its role, it is a relic from the 19th century that is only held together by the knowledge that the regime has a strong machinery of violence.
      The hostage drama at the theater in Moscow, why didn’t the special forces know that those who had become unconscious from the gas they used had to be placed in the recovery position.
      Well, because their job is not to protect civilians, but to protect the leaders from civilians.
      The attack in the shopping center last year, or the year before. Why did it take so long before the special forces arrived, well, none of the leaders were in danger. They didn’t intervene until they received orders from the leader. They are not there to protect the people.
      Russia is “rotten to the core.”

  21. MatsExtrude

    “Airstrike on a group of Russian troops during their rotation and ammunition in the Belgorod region, – Soniashnyk ❗️This location has already been hit by airstrikes about 5 times, but the Russians continue to use it.”

  22. johan No.1

    Trump’s negotiation with Iran is going well – the mullahs are trying to negotiate away Israel’s nuclear weapons instead 🤣🤣

    1. Westley Richard

      It’s just a draft, in the fine print it surely states that all pipelines are to be transferred to American ownership. Just like the mineral deal with UA.

    2. CB500four

      Haha, it’s as embarrassing as Russia wanting Ukraine to be demilitarized. If Israel destroys its nukes, it will happen on Iranian soil.
      By the way, I believe one reason why the USA and the UK were so eager to help Israel stop the major missile attack from Iran last year was to avoid an Israeli retaliation with possible nuclear weapons.

    3. johan No.1

      I believe that it is Iran’s counteroffer that is a nuclear weapons-free zone in the MENA region.

      Not Trump’s doing this time, but it’s not going great either 😀

  23. Westley Richard

    USA’s president Donald Trump is fulfilling God’s plan. That’s what Runar Søgaard says in an interview with the Norwegian VG. “I clearly see Donald Trump as chosen by God,” says Søgaard, adding that God often uses people who are considered “morally imperfect.” In the interview, the Norwegian, who was released from prison a year ago after serving a sentence for accounting fraud, says that he sees himself as Sweden’s Donald Trump.

    https://omni.se/a/XjAQ0g

    Finally, someone stepping forward who can govern Sweden 🥳

     

    2. CB500four

      “Morally imperfect” I can agree with. Sent by God, hardly, not the god that the priest preached about when I was confirmed, anyway.

  26. Westley Richard

    Russia’s attack on Sumy is an obvious war crime. That’s according to military expert Joakim Paasikivi speaking to TT. “What is exceptional here is the large number of casualties, not that it is happening.” Over 30 people were killed and more than 80 were injured when the Russian rockets hit Sumy’s city center on Sunday. The use of ballistic missiles by Russia reportedly shortens the warning time significantly compared to drone attacks, leading to “horrendous effects,” according to Paasikivi. Sunday’s attack also clearly demonstrates that Russia has no intention of meeting anyone halfway in the ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire, he adds.

     

    https://omni.se/a/KM9Ax5

     

     

  27. johan No.1

    RU is considering detonating a nuclear weapon in space, which would cause chaos for us.

    Debris from exploded satellites would orbit and knock out many other satellites, causing phenomenal and difficult-to-solve disturbances.

    Certainly an attractive option for RU.

    After all, they have also been scouting all the undersea cables around the world.

    2. MatsExtrude

      Russia has been threatening with nuclear weapons for over three years, starting to almost think it’s time we threaten them with nuclear weapons. We can start by agreeing with Ukraine that it’s okay to conduct a test detonation of tactical nuclear weapons in some uninhabited area in Crimea.

      1. Westley Richard

        It is exactly what the Russians want, for the Western world to also be threatened, then the media and all “peaceniks” jump on board and scream for peace, regardless of whether it is on Russia’s terms. When Putin threatens with nuclear weapons, he is strong, if Trump, Macron, or Starmer do the same, they are considered madmen according to Western logic.

        1. MatsExtrude

          Well, unfortunately that’s the way it is.
          Too bad the USA is as they are, otherwise one could have at least suggested that if Russia doesn’t stop killing civilians, we release the 100km border and provide Ukraine with long-range ATACMS.
          The peacemakers still wouldn’t understand, so it would only provoke a reaction from Russia.

          If Russia continues anyway, they can’t come and complain later.

        2. CB500four

          Unfortunately yes, but Russia keeps raising the stakes all the time if we don’t push back hard. It was like trying with the bayonet, if it’s soft go forward, if it’s hard, back off. The West must also speak the language of power, which Russia understands. Not to threaten, but to promise the destruction of Russian military capability.
          A nuke in the atmosphere is not ideal in today’s communication society. The USA tested above the calm sea and it resulted in a significant electromagnetic storm, nowadays it would probably cause a significant loss of satellites.

    3. johan No.1

      laughs good I see as usual but if a satellite explodes during launch and the small “nuclear reactor” explodes and takes two other satellites with it – or something?

      Or just forget about nuclear weapons and create a bang?

      The explosion is the same it’s all the two million fragments that spread in all directions you want that travel around at the speed of light in orbit and one fragment is enough to knock out another satellite.

       

      2. MatsExtrude

        Partly, it is probably quite difficult to predict exactly how it will unfold (Russia has its own satellites) and partly there is a risk that any falling space debris will end up in Russia.

        Sure, it would create a hell of a mess and disrupt some communication and intel, but would it really help them in any decisive way?

        Then it would seem more logical with a tactical nuclear weapon in Kyiv and a couple of other major cities, to try to paralyze Ukraine to achieve the same effect as the USA did in Japan.
        Could lead to direct capitulation from Ukraine and then victory is achieved. If Ukraine capitulates, the West will not do anything more because then it is Ukraine’s own decision (sure that many leaders secretly think it would be nice if Ukraine could just give up so they could get rid of the war).

        If Ukraine does not give up, they have probably still achieved significant damage that creates chaos and weakens the country’s ability to defend itself. Additionally, of course, the threat of repeating it.

        Considering how cowardly we are in the West (and now when Trump seems closer to Putin than Zelenskyy), we would hardly retaliate with nuclear weapons. Instead, we would discuss for several months on how to act forcefully but without risking escalation.

        There would of course be some forceful condemnations from all sides.

          1. johan No.1

            Yes, I admit I’ve messed it up – just as CB500four says of course if I managed to send them all in the wrong direction 😀

            If an Islamist terrorist manages to steal a small nuclear weapon from Russia and detonates it in Paris – what will Europe do when Trump is yelling about peace?

            Because that’s the reality if it happens, sort of.

    2. MatsExtrude

      All it led to was Russia significantly escalating the killing of civilians.
      The USA must eventually understand that peace cannot be achieved by giving Russia what they want, it only makes the USA appear weak and leads to continued conflict and even worse war crimes.

      1. maggan

        I suspect, however, that Ukraine is keeping their promises. Even though all signs indicate that the Russians are shooting at civilians since they are not using the robots on the energy system.

        It will be interesting to see what happens on the 19th-20th then…

  29. johan No.1

    With that approval tracker above, it’s probably crucial for the GOP to come out with something that the citizens like.

    Tightening the border was popular, as well as releasing a lot of previously classified information, but now there’s a significant downturn after Trump’s pump-and-dump of the stock markets and the debacle with the tariffs.

    I’ve been thinking about a significant tax cut on salaries up to X thousand USD/year, or tax exemption for what was thought to be a bit like amphetamines and provide a temporary boost before everyone realizes that the equivalent has been saved on social services.

     

    1. Westley Richard

      One million jobs depend on food exports to China. The car tariffs should be noticeable and cause trouble with everything shipped between the USA and Canada. The question is whether it has started to be noticed?
      The media is more focused on the stock market and the national debt.
      There should soon be some statistics showing how things are going for the average Joe, it will be interesting reading.

    2. MatsExtrude

      Well, tax cuts have been underway for a while, even though many Republicans are skeptical as they are afraid it will erode the state budget. Haven’t heard about it in a few days, if it has been approved or will undergo more votes.

          1. johan No.1

            That’s the problem – our world order is completely overturned by this war.

            It actually started a bit earlier because Putin started in 2007 and the West slept through it, but only now has everything come to a head.

  31. johan No.1

    Merz says that Ukraine can only join the EU when the war is over – what has happened to the strategic communication right now, everything is wrong 😭

    Someone found electric scooters for 3000 SEK, asking for a friend who budgeted for it but he can’t find any cheaper than 12,000 SEK 😬

  34. Westley Richard

     

    Thinks that Oscar is a more stable driver than Landon and believes that he will emerge as the ultimate winner this year. Very exciting race today.

  35. johan No.1

    There is probably a certain risk that the EU is approaching China in the wrong way here.

    Do we get anything in return for removing tariffs on electric cars, for example – there should be a give and take, presumably, do the French get to sell their cognac again?

    You don’t get much from Google

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