The oil refinery Novokuibyshevsk has been attacked again but it is uncertain if they managed to hit it.

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The war in Ukraine continues and Ukraine persists with its attacks inside Russia. Videos show explosions in the air, likely Russian anti-aircraft fire shooting down Ukrainian drones near the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery in Samara. There are no reports yet of actual hits on the facility, but we keep our fingers crossed. It will probably become clear later in the day if any damage has been done.
https://bsky.app/profile/twmcltd.bsky.social/post/3m6l7icrvxs26

Russian losses

Today’s loss report is unusually comprehensive, perhaps not in terms of high numbers, but we have a bit of everything, including MLRS, Anti-aircraft, and special forces, but above all, also two planes.

  • 1140 KWIA
  • 1 Tank
  • 3 AFVs
  • 21 Artillery systems
  • 1 MLRS
  • 1 Anit-aircraft system
  • 2 Aircrafts
  • 214 UAVs
  • 109 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
  • 1 Special equipment

SLAVA UKRAINI

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47 thoughts on “The oil refinery Novokuibyshevsk has been attacked again but it is uncertain if they managed to hit it.”

  2. MXT

    The number of artillery attacks has slowly decreased over a long period of time, but since the beginning of November, the number of drone attacks per day has also decreased. Whether this is due to the weather, perhaps the cold, or something else is of course difficult to know, but there is a clear decline where the average over seven days has almost decreased by 1000/day.

    Thanks to Ragnar for his excellent statistics!

        1. jahojariaho

          Nja, if we think one more step? All these trucks and vehicles that Ukraine is fighting against! Yes, there will probably be a shortage not only of food, but also of grenades and drones? Isn’t that quite logical with hundreds of vehicles on average?

  3. 205

    Very strong offensive Lyman with record-breaking 44 Russian attacks. Also an increase and a noticeable pressure in Huliaypillia. Continued very strong pressure in Pokrovsk.

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 5↗️
    S Slobozhansky 2
    Kupyansk 6↗️
    Lyman 44💥💥💥↗️↗️↗️
    Slovyansk 14💥↗️
    Kramatorsk 4↗️
    Kostjantynivka 31💥💥↗️
    Pokrovsk 57💥💥💥
    Oleksandrivskij 16💥↗️
    Huliaypillia 22💥↗️
    Orikhivsk 2
    Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 0

    Sum sectors 203↗️
    Total 213↗️
    Unloc 10↘️

    2. Lasse W

      UA must resist now as RU is gathering strength. Is this the final battle for RU? And put their hope in the fact that the Russian forces have been weakened by UA’s prolonged fighting in the rear lines.

      1. MXT

        Well, unfortunately it seems to be getting worse and worse. There have been some larger ones before, maybe a lack of ammunition, maybe can’t keep so many planes in the air, etc.

        When it was at its best, we were probably above 95%.

        If Europe is too cowardly for anything else, then for heaven’s sake we should be able to help better with this.

  8. 205

    🇺🇸🇺🇦 US authorities are confident that the conversation between Witkoff and Ushakov was recorded by GUR, — UP journalist Sydorenko.

    “The Americans say – it definitely wasn’t us, because the American intelligence system is designed in such a way that they don’t leak audio of conversations at all. They encrypt it right away…”

    There’s a theory that it was the British. And there’s another theory that the Russians themselves wrote it. But the Americans believe it was the Ukrainians.

    https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1993795497719415086?s=46

  9. johan No.1

    now that Europe seems to have averted the immediate threat, everything else remains.

    The fronts look like they have for a while and we have written a lot about it.

    Europe should do more – the land border with Belarus?

    More weapons from the mob arsenal.

    LV over western Ukraine

    at least.

    Preferably lower the Baltic Sea fleet in port

  12. johan No.1

    China is in a bit of a bad economic condition.

    and RU can handle Ukraine.

    Why not take advantage?

    Clip China’s wings economically and get involved in the UA war so RU loses?

    You won’t find a better opportunity than now.

  13. johan No.1

    USA will only discuss security guarantees after the peace plan is signed by everyone.

    A bad joke USA, but Europe has done several things right now in the past week 👍

    1. 205

      He probably wants to avoid multi-front wars, right? Venezuela, still unclear about the US role in Ukraine. They have probably tried to shift responsibility to Europe where there is still nothing but babble from European leaders. But support has practically been withdrawn already, so it is Ukraine that bears the brunt. But it seems like Trump is taking one step at a time: first low-intensity conflicts in Africa, Asia. Then Gaza. Now Venezuela and maybe Ukraine (withdrawing for the US’s part), and maybe lastly Taiwan/China?

       

      Otherwise (you mentioned something about a weakened China above) (and this is possibly even tougher than getting European troops in Ukraine), if Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea took action, that is military intervention against China and North Korea respectively, shouldn’t they be able to get US support? This would weaken Venezuela, which has some Chinese support even if the military support comes from Russia. Additionally, Russia would lose its significant direct/indirect military support from China and the less significant military support from North Korea. This would strengthen the US position, and while Russia would weaken, Europe could free up resources to assist USA/Taiwan/South Korea/Japan in the Pacific region. The US can handle Venezuela with one hand, now that Russia must fight in Ukraine without help from China.

      Imagine if Japan also took control of the disputed islands located in the border region with Russia. If Taiwan occupied the buffer zones between itself and the mainland, and if South Korea sent troops into North Korea.

      A world war, yes, but still limited to today more or less already warring parties in Ukraine.

      Regarding China, I have heard that a war would be an economic disaster. Something that can be taken into account.

  15. 205

    Snyder: I want to start with some background information, because we are going to tell a story that is incredibly strange. And in order to appreciate the strangeness of it, we must have an understanding of where we are right now. So, very briefly, you surely remember that Russia invaded Ukraine 11 years ago, 11 and a half years ago, in 2014. A full-scale invasion followed more than three and a half years ago, in February 2022. Russia occupies parts of Ukraine, whole provinces and parts of other provinces. The war has essentially been static on the ground in recent years, with significant losses on both sides, but greater losses on the Russian side. It has shifted from being more of a human war to a more mechanized war, something that Michael knows a lot about. The nature of the war reflects how wars will look in the future, even though the Western powers, including the USA, have not necessarily kept up with the developments in the way they should have. The Russians have problems. They have problems with hydrocarbons. They have problems with Ukrainians destroying some of their hydrocarbon infrastructure. They have problems moving forward in the way they would like to. Ukrainians also have problems in domestic politics with a major corruption scandal. And basically, wherever you look, and this will be a theme in our conversation, someone has problems. Knowing what their foreign policy is and who actually controls it. So, with just that very, very general background, I would first like to ask you, Michael, before we delve into this kind of quagmire, what would you add or, from your perspective, how would you briefly describe the situation in the war on the ground right now?

    Michael: I think it has been largely static until very recently. I think the statistics showed that Russia has conquered less than 1% of the territory since, what was it, 2023. And remember that Ukraine very successfully carried out three counteroffensives. The first was in Kyiv, where the Russians were driven out of the capital, threatening Ukraine’s existence. The next was in Kharkiv, which many did not expect. And the third was in Kherson. It had a failed summer offensive in 2023. But basically, I think you are right. This has evolved into a war of attrition. I say this because now you read a lot in the press about Russia gaining ground in Donbass, especially around Pokrovsk. And it is a country with engineers and IT specialists who are very good at adapting to the changing needs on the battlefield. They are acquiring drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles, which they are now using in a very smart way to weaken Russia’s energy sector by targeting oil depots and terminals. This is something that has actually caught Donald Trump’s attention in a positive way, because even though I would say he is very inclined to stand on Russia’s side and has not made a secret of it. There is something about Donald Trump that makes him not like war, but he likes acts of war, and he is very pleased with the idea that Ukraine, a smaller non-nuclear country, which according to conventional wisdom should have held out for three days, has resisted, and that the Russians would have been in Kyiv and then, after about two weeks, at the border with Poland. The fact that they fought back and fought hard, and that they have given Putin a bloody nose, seems to impress Trump. And I think the Ukrainians are playing that card as best they can to try to manage this crisis with the USA. But you see, you know, what Russia is doing is… trying to reinforce the gains they are currently making on the battlefield, gains that come at an enormous cost for the Russians. I mean, thousands of soldiers are thrown into the meat grinder every week. Putin has absolutely no respect for human life on his own side. It’s a kind of Pyrrhic victory on the battlefield. But now the ambition, and you don’t have to take my word for it, you can just read what the Russian government itself says and what its press organs say: What we cannot achieve militarily, we hope to achieve diplomatically through concessions and tough negotiations with the USA. So I’m not trying to paint a rosy picture. There are many things on the Ukrainian side that are quite bad. There is a corruption scandal plaguing President Zelensky and his administration, a scandal that, if you read the Ukrainian press, has ensnared his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, who is currently leading the negotiations with the Americans and Europeans in Geneva. It has also affected his former defense minister, now secretary of the National Security Council, Rustem Umerov. So there is a political scandal, and there are also deep-rooted problems within the Ukrainian military, especially when it comes to what they are willing to invest in certain battles. Many Ukrainian soldiers say that we should have withdrawn from this area long ago. It’s not worth it. And we are losing too many lives. This doesn’t mean that Ukraine is a perfect country. No country is. But the fact remains, it is a democracy. A democracy with a vibrant civil society, which, as you have noted, and I have been saying this since 2014, I do not invest in governments. I do not even invest particularly in the current Ukrainian government for the reasons just mentioned. But I invest in the Ukrainian people because they do not allow things to remain as they are, for example in autocracies like Russia, right? So if someone tries to water down anti-corruption clauses it is people standing in the streets in the middle of the war to condemn their own government and say they must revoke this decision. That’s why I believe the Western world must focus its efforts and energy. You know, the Ukrainian people made a very clear choice more than a decade ago. They want to be part of Europe. They want to be part of the Western world. He cannot allow Ukraine to succeed in this way, because it’s like a Pepsi challenge. You know, if Ukraine can do this, maybe Russia can do it one day too. And that would be the end for Putin. And that would be the end for his regime. 

    With its upcoming constitutional amendment supported by all parties, perhaps Sweden should also fear a free and democratic Ukraine?

     

    Above is a transcript from Snyder’s interview with Michael that Kons linked to yesterday:

     

    Kons
    2025-11-26 at 8:17:06 PM
    Scrolled through the comments but no one seems to have mentioned Timothy Snyder’s latest Substack Live about this Vance/Kushner/Witkoff soup

    https://open.substack.com/pub/snyder/p/oligarchs-and-diplomats-video-with?r=17p3fu&utm_medium=ios

  16. MXT

    “Reportedly, that strike drones hit a military unit of the Rosgvardiya “Akhmat-North” regiment, located in the Baysangurovsky district of Grozny.”

  18. SneakyPete

    Finally

    Europe thinks the unthinkable: Retaliating against Russia

    Countries are looking at joint offensive cyber operations and surprise military drills as Moscow steps up its campaign to destabilize NATO allies.

    BRUSSELS — Russia’s drones and agents are unleashing attacks across NATO countries and Europe is now doing what would have seemed outlandish just a few years ago: planning how to hit back.

    Ideas range from joint offensive cyber operations against Russia, and faster and more coordinated attribution of hybrid attacks by quickly pointing the finger at Moscow, to surprise NATO-led military exercises, according to two senior European government officials and three EU diplomats.

    “The Russians are constantly testing the limits — what is the response, how far can we go?” Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže noted in an interview. A more “proactive response is needed,” she told POLITICO. “And it’s not talking that sends a signal — it’s doing.”

    https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-thinks-the-unthinkable-retaliating-against-russia-nato-cyber-hybrid/

    2. Umlaut

      Imagine if this had been done 15 years ago. Or 20 years ago. It would have saved human lives and 20% of the landmass in both Georgia and Ukraine.

  19. MXT

    “Russia’s President Vladimir Putin was surprised when the USA imposed sanctions on the Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft last month, he said during a press conference on Thursday.

    The sanctions are some of the most extensive to date and came after a period where the Trump administration had toned down its hard line against Russia, Reuters reports.

    He also commented on recent peace negotiations and said that a Ukrainian withdrawal from areas in eastern Ukraine is a requirement for a ceasefire:

    – When Ukraine withdraws from the territories they occupy, then the fighting will cease. If they do not withdraw, we will achieve this by military means.”
    https://omni.se/putin-overraskades-av-nya-sanktioner-fran-usa/a/WvlBoQ

    1. 205

      It is necessary to crush Russia’s economy thoroughly so that they don’t even have enough troops for next year, or so.

       

      From the day before yesterday, Henrik Brändén:

      The ability to recruit soldiers

      Despite the extremely difficult situation at the front, Ukrainian losses are significantly smaller than Russian losses – according to various estimates, between 1/5 and 1/3 as large, which roughly corresponds to the difference in population size between Russia and Ukraine.

      If everything were to continue as it has been so far – which of course will not happen – it is therefore not certain at all that Ukraine would run out of potential soldiers before Russia. On the contrary, in fact: a large part of Ukrainians are still motivated to go to war, while the Russians have largely only been able to recruit poor people from the periphery of the federation and prisoners who were promised amnesty after spending time at the front.

      Recently, this recruitment method has been expanded to include young men who have been arrested by the police on the street suspected of minor crimes, who are faced with the choice of either being prosecuted on fabricated evidence or signing a contract with the army.

      https://militarnyi.com/en/news/russia-criminals-coerce-men-into-signing-military-contracts/

      To create the right incentive for the police, high bonuses are paid for each soldier a police officer “recruits”.

      The Russian authorities have also started “offering” those with debts to sign up, using the recruitment bonus and their first salaries to pay off their debt.

      An offer that is hard to refuse. The fact that Russia has recently developed its recruitment methods in this way reinforces the picture that emerges from many reports from the front lines, that the Russians are finding it increasingly difficult to fill their ranks.

      Naturally, one wonders why the Russians don’t simply mobilize and force their large hordes of conscripts into action.

      The answer is simple: despite the enormous propaganda machinery and the public declarations about the patriotic mission and Russia’s historical mission on everyone’s lips, very few of the ethnic Russians in the country’s relatively prosperous, populous central regions are willing to sacrifice their own lives or their sons’ lives in the war.

      And Putin’s regime’s legitimacy and relative popularity are based on the fact that these groups have accepted Putin’s offer of security and relative prosperity in exchange for abstaining from freedom and democracy.

      A general mobilization would simply jeopardize the popular tolerance – in many circles, support – that the regime has enjoyed so far.

      So far, volunteers have been attracted by recruitment bonuses and salaries that are huge by Russian standards, making it more appealing for a head of the family who cannot provide his family with a reasonable standard of living and therefore experiences life at home as quite bleak, boring, and depressing, to give his children a reasonable start in life by playing Russian roulette with his own life by signing up.

      But the economic bonuses have been paid from the large fund Putin created in the early 2000s from the then enormous gas and oil revenues.

      https://www.intellinews.com/moscow-blog-putin-25-years-in-office-has-he-been-a-boon-or-a-bane-for-russia-359727/

      But that fund is now largely depleted, and there is increasing evidence – although it varies regionally – that the rewards are decreasing and becoming increasingly uncertain to obtain.

      At the same time, signs continue to accumulate that the Russian economy is in serious trouble.

      Large parts of the banking system are teetering on the brink of collapse, kept alive by various government interventions, where it is highly unclear to me whether what is being pumped in is real value, or the digital era’s equivalent of paper money, so that a huge bubble is just waiting to burst.

      Ordinary people can no longer exchange Western currency, they are finding it increasingly difficult to withdraw the money they have in the bank, and more and more goods in regular grocery stores are so tempting to steal that they are equipped with alarms.

      But so far, the Russians have managed to scrape together enough people to fill the gaps left by the large numbers of fallen and wounded.

      https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/09/26/we-were-sent-to-the-slaughter

      However, it is not certain that they will be able to do this for much longer:

  22. Jan W

    Svenska Kraftnät’s director general is being let go. Reported by, among others, SvD. No reason is given.

    If I were to guess, it has to do with no power reserve being procured for the winter. According to what was said at the time, it was because the required price was too high. Too high according to some EU regulation. This should be obvious to everyone. Either the regulation was misunderstood, which based on recent news seems to have been the case. Or they should have given the EU the finger.

    The reason for the resignation is not given, even though he had only been in the position for seven months, so it’s quite extraordinary.

  23. Jan W

    Finally, Swedish authorities have started reading Johan No.1.

    Malmer Stenergard says, among other things:

    “Ultimately, it is up to Ukraine to draw its red lines, and we support Ukraine. I can only draw one conclusion: We must change the equation so that Russia is willing to withdraw its troops. To do that, we must increase pressure on Russia and strengthen Ukraine.”

    “It frustrates me that we do not have the sense of urgency we should have after nearly four years of war,” she says.

    I hope the rest of Europe reads as well.

    https://www.svd.se/a/GxlJ7q/fredsplan-i-ukraina-malmer-stenergard-varnar-for-risker-om-ryssland-riktar-om-styrkor

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