The war in Ukraine 2025-05-06

Russian losses in Ukraine 2025-05-06

• 1430 KWIA
• 3 Tanks
• 5 APVs
• 61 Artillery systems
• 1 MLRS
• 145 UAVs
• 103 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
• 3 Special equipment

Statistics, month by month up to the end of April

The chart below shows the average of Russian losses in personnel (KWIA) per day, for each month. Although there has been a decrease at the beginning of the year, the losses are significantly higher for January to April compared to the same months last year. In recent days, we have also seen an increase both in the number of KWIA and in the number of conflicts. Last year, there was a sharp increase between April and May, and it is possible that we will see a similar increase this year. In 2023, however, there was a decrease after Russia managed to take Bakhmut. Wagner partly left the front after that, but it is also possible that Russia chose a more defensive approach as Ukraine launched its campaign #SpringIsComing. An offensive that did not start until later in the summer.

Here, KWIA is shown month by month for the entire period. Here, it becomes even clearer that the losses decreased between February and April.

Loss of land-based equipment, including tanks, artillery, etc. Note a sharp decrease in December, but otherwise, it is increasing (and as we will see later, this is mainly due to artillery and soft vehicles (i.e., non-armored vehicles).

Artillery losses were high during the autumn and suddenly dropped significantly in December but have since increased again. March was a record month, but April is almost as high.

Regarding MLRS losses, they are low enough that the variations could be due to chance, but here too, we see a low point in December, just like for artillery. It’s probably not entirely random.

Tank losses vary significantly, but the long-term trend is clear. Since the Russians launched their offensive in October 2023, it has steadily decreased. Low points in August, December, and January.

When it comes to other armored vehicles, it seems that the Russians have more of them, or at least have chosen to use them more frequently, but here too, the trend is downward. However, this trend started in October 2024, unlike the tanks whose downward trend started a year earlier. December was the first month with significantly fewer losses.

When it comes to soft vehicles or other vehicles, including everything from trucks and tankers to buses, cars, motorcycles, etc., the upward trend is clear. Losses are steadily increasing. One guess is that earlier in the war, the losses mainly involved vehicles used for logistics, but later we have seen the Russians attacking with everything they can get their hands on, and a large part of the losses probably come from motorcycles and simpler buses judging by the FPV videos released on social media.

Special equipment has decreased significantly, although there has been a slight recovery in March and April. It’s hard to know why. Perhaps the Russians no longer have as much equipment, or they simply do not dare to place the equipment as close to the front lines.

Here we see the ratio between Russian and Ukrainian losses. It looked quite bleak at the beginning of April but has improved towards the end of the month and is now at about 1:1.7. The table is based on Oryx, visually confirmed data. There may be various sources of error in the data, but regardless, the trends that can be observed are likely correct.

Here we see how the use of regular “soft” vehicles, armored vehicles, and drones has evolved over the past year. Since the beginning of the year, there has been a significant increase in drones and soft vehicles.

In this graph, you can see how the number of conflicts has developed up to April. Note that the peak was reached in December. As you have seen above, December was a month with record-high soldier losses (KWIA), while also being a month with few losses of most other hardware such as artillery, tanks, soft vehicles, etc. There were intense battles in December, but apparently with very poor support. The question is whether this was intentional on the part of the Russians, or if they simply had significant difficulties in getting equipment to the front lines?

Once again, a big thank you to Ragnar who is behind all the statistics! https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:652zz7suzqeon4lpiftxb6kq

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