The war in Ukraine 2025-06-28

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Russian losses:

  • 1000 KWIA
  • 1 Tank
  • 12 AFVs
  • 35 Artillery systems
  • 1 Anti-Aircraft system
  • 4 Aircrafts
  • 237 UAVs
  • 6 Cruise missiles
  • 131 Vehicles and Fuel tanks

SLAVA UKRAINI

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76 thoughts on “The war in Ukraine 2025-06-28”

  1. MXT
    AFU: “In total, 153 clashes were recorded during the past day.
    According to the information, the invaders launched four missiles and 57 air strikes, firing 12 missiles and dropping 111 controlled aerial bombs. In addition, the Russians engaged 3633 kamikaze drones and carried out 5623 artillery shelling at the positions of our troops and settlements, including 54 from the reactive systems of arson-fire.”
    2. johan No.1

      Vafan 😳

      An SOF operation against a base in Russia.

      If we are to be the first in the world on Johanno1.se, it is important that we do not lag behind SOF in knowledge.

  4. T23

    Inserting from yesterday’s thread that got lost in Friday’s hangover:

    The Baltic states follow in Finland’s footsteps and leave the Ottawa Treaty.

    Lithuania removes ban on landmines: “Russia an existential threat”

    According to the Lithuanian newspaper Lrytas, Latvia and Estonia have also informed the UN that the countries intend to leave the treaty.

    https://omni.se/a/8qaO8E

    Omni writes landmines but presumably means anti-personnel mines.

    When will Sweden follow suit?

  7. 205

    – N Slobozhansky-Kursk 17💥↘️
    – S Slobozhansky 7↘️
    – Kupyansk 5↘️
    – Lyman 17💥
    – Siverskyi 2
    – Kramatorsk 5
    – Toretsk 17💥↘️
    – Pokrovsk 56💥💥💥
    – Novopavlivka 19💥↘️
    – Huliaypillia 0
    – Orikhivsk 3
    – Prydniprovsky 2↘️

    Pokrovsk in the 22nd report: In #Pokrovsk at 53↗️ of 170↗️ combats, AFU🇺🇦 killed 63↘️ occupants and wounded another 41↘️, for a total of 104↘️ KWIA. A kwia/combat of 104/53=2.0↘️.

    With the same kwia/attack: 112 kwia in Pokrovsk for the 8th report’s 56 battles.

    56/153=36% attacks, 112/1000=11% kwia. One third of the attacks but one tenth of kwia.

    Better protection? A ratio of 2.0 and a previously assumed group size of 10 soldiers results in a 20% loss ratio. Talked about drone corridors.

    Or small groups? For a ratio of 2.0 kwia/attack, a group size of 4-5 soldiers is given for personnel losses (kwia) of 50%. Normal? Difficult to know, but these are numbers that have appeared in descriptions, if I remember correctly. Then there have also been reports of attacks with fast-moving smaller vehicles. This could possibly occur in smaller columns of 4-5?

    Then we have that 66% of the attacks have resulted in 90% of kwia. About 900. Still low in Sumy/Kursk with its relatively low 17 Russian attacks and where there are reported difficulties for the Russians as well as Ukrainian counteroffensives.

     

    3. 205

      Further breakdown.

      Sector south, South Command.

      – Huliaypillia 0
      – Orikhivsk 3
      – Prydniprovsky 2↘️

      The enemy did not conduct any offensive operations in the Huliaipole direction.

      In the Orikhiv direction, the occupiers made three attempts to advance near Kamyanske.

      Over the past day, the enemy made two unsuccessful attempts to approach our positions in the Dnipro direction/Prydniprovsk direction.

      Over the past day, the enemy lost: 

      – 29 occupiers
      – 16 artillery systems
      – 1 air defence system (ZU-23-2)
      – 33 units of automotive and armoured vehicles
      – 6 electronic warfare systems
      – 5 UAVs
      – 1 motorcycle
      – 2 boats
      – 2 communication antennas. 

      Destroyed:
      – 25 shelters/bunkers
      – 3 ammunition storage sites
      – 2 MTZ storage sites
      – 1 fuel storage facility
      – 1 firing position

      29 casualties in total from 5 attacks give 29/5=5.8 casualties per attack. Excluding the sectors mentioned above and Pokrovsk, the corresponding ratio becomes (1000-112-29=859)/(153-56-5=92)=9.3 casualties per attack in the other sectors.

      Another assumption is that casualties per attack in Toretsk and Novopavlivka are similar to those in their common neighboring sector Pokrovsk, that is 2.0. What ratio do we then get for the other sectors? 

      – Toretsk 17
      – Novopavlivka 19
      Total: 36 attacks
      KWIA(2.0): 72

      – N Slobozhansky-Kursk 17
      – S Slobozhansky 7
      – Kupyansk 5
      – Lyman 17
      – Siverskyi 2
      – Kramatorsk 5
      Total: 53 attacks (53/153=35%)
      KWIA: 859-72=787 (79%)
      casualties per attack:       787/53=14.8

      On one third of the attacks, 80% of the losses were incurred in the more northern sectors.

      1. MXT

        Interesting! 👍

        Difficult to draw any definite conclusions from it, but it is obvious that the number of attacks in itself does not say much, other than to see trends, since one does not know how large the attacks are.

        When you compile it together with KWIA, on the other hand, one can begin to suspect that it must involve quite a few soldiers. 15 KWIA/attack must be quite high.

        1. 205

          Yes, but remember that only Russian attacks are counted and where they occur. Own are opsec not least where they occur. So the number of attacks can be significantly higher if Ukraine is on the offensive. However, KWIA is reported independently, regardless of whether the loss occurs in a Russian or Ukrainian attack. So it may still be about small groups, which is why we do not receive information about Ukrainian attacks. But we do not know.

          1. MXT

            Of course, a bit tired today. 😄

            For example, it could be double the number of attacks, half of which are Ukraine’s, so a Ukrainian offensive in the north is absolutely conceivable.

            By the way, it would be nice if Ragnar could combine KWA and attacks in the same table or KWIA/attack ratio.

            Then maybe conclusions could be drawn from other periods in the war.
            Both when Ukraine has been on the offensive and when the Russians have been, to see how it looked back then. Of course, this can be done manually, we’ll see if I find time for it later one day.

      1. MXT

        I had a vole in the hallway last year. I had to build a trap to catch it so I could release it.
        The cats have a tendency to bring in prey and then accidentally forget about them. 

        Luckily, it doesn’t happen often, but it’s probably time to get a mousetrap for next time.

  11. MXT

    “USA’s president Donald Trump believes that he saved Ayatollah Ali Khamenei from ‘a very ugly and shameful death’ and accuses him of ingratitude.

    ‘I knew exactly where he was hiding, but I did not let Israel or the US armed forces, the by far largest and most powerful in the world, take his life,’ Trump writes on Truth Social.”

    1. Lasse W

      The one who constantly believes they are in a superior position will soon find themselves in an inferior position. Ancient Egyptian wisdom. Something for Putin to think about as well.

  14. MXT

    Multiple explosions hit the Kirovske airfield in occupied Crimea overnight. According to Crimean Wind, 5–6 blasts were heard between 2:50 and 3:02 AM after drones flew over the area. A helicopter caught fire, ammunition exploded, and fuel tanks and air defense systems were likely hit.

  18. Westley Richard

    The Social Democrats are selling their criticized lottery business Kombispel to IOGT. The reason is said to be that it is no longer economically sustainable. The Social Democrats and SSU will receive 57.5 million SEK for the deal.

    https://bsky.app/profile/altingetse.bsky.social/post/3lslekdaacc2e

    An organization with the goal of combating abuse will in the future be funded by another form of abuse.

    According to the official annual report for 2023, IOGT has a balance sheet of just over 21 million SEK and equity of just under 15 million SEK, so how will they finance an acquisition of 57 million SEK?

    We hope that there will be a thorough review of the agreement as IOGT has been funded by SIDA through forumciv.

     

    2. MXT

      The right wing has succeeded so well with its smear campaign that many (like you) now consider lotteries to be something ugly.

      Without lotteries, we may have to shut down many operations, especially within youth sports.
      We may also have to raise taxes.

      Since political parties apparently should not be allowed to sell lotteries, I now want to see you and everyone else start campaigning to stop: https://mlotten.se/

      Maybe politicians shouldn’t invest in that industry at all either? 

      “SD and M leaders invest money in gambling companies – want to stop S-lottery
      The Sweden Democrats want to strangle the Social Democrats’ financing by banning the party’s lottery business.
      Income from gambling is “immoral”, according to SD.
      At the same time, high-ranking SD and M representatives make money from shares in major online casino companies.”

      https://aip.nu/sd-och-m-toppar-satsar-pengar-i-spelbolag-vill-stoppa-s-lotteri/

      Or wait, maybe it’s only the political opponents on the left who are not allowed to engage in such activities?

      By the way, SD themselves tried with Kronlotteriet, but it didn’t go so well for them.
      Could that possibly be one of the reasons why they then instead aimed to destroy things for S?
      At least they had no moral qualms before when it came to lotteries, but when they couldn’t do business themselves, suddenly lotteries were despicable.
      https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/sd-satsar-pa-partilotter-pengarna-ska-ga-till-valet-2018/

      Double standards is a fitting term, isn’t it?

      1. Westley Richard

        Children or politicians, which are more important?
        There is no ban on selling lottery tickets, the difference is that political parties are required to pay the same tax as businesses. The Social Democrats and the Moderates are forced to pay tax on the profits they make from their lotteries, which nonprofit organizations are exempt from.

        For many years, the lotteries of political parties have crowded out the small associations’ opportunities to expand their lottery sales. Associations that are based on a commitment to children, sports, the environment, or culture and run by passionate individuals without expectations of high salaries from the operation, often completely unpaid.

        This opens up opportunities for public service associations, such as those selling lottery tickets for children’s activities, to increase their sales.

        Those of us who care more about children than politicians think this is excellent.

        1. MXT

          Good comeback!

          So you would prefer that M also shuts down its lottery business? Or are you satisfied with them paying taxes?

          By the way, should you also appreciate the temperance movement, which, among other things, provides support to children and relatives in families affected by addiction, taking over the business?

          1. Westley Richard

            I prefer that they also get rid of the business.

            Sometimes the temperance movement does a good job, sometimes they are rigid with their demands for prohibition.

            Found some fun info about IOGT, over 20 thousand members with a very high average age, on average they have been members for 33 years. They probably need to recruit new members to avoid dying out as an organization.
            Here you can see if you live in an IOGT area.

            https://accentmagasin.se/nykterhet/unik-karta-har-finns-iogt-ntos-medlemmar/

      2. Lasse W

        Who said that lotteries are ugly? It sounds like a straw man. It has only been about telephone sales methods. Calling up old people and getting them to buy. Nothing that honors S.

      3. MacMelmac

        9If laws have been established for lottery operations that apply in Sweden, then they apply to everyone.
        If one finds it troublesome because they consider themselves a bit more important than everyone else, they can move the operations to another country with different regulations.
        Then it becomes a moral question whether one should invest money in these companies.

        The Social Democrats can never complain about hypocrisy since they have had this in their operations for as long as anyone can remember.

        Mud-slinging is not unique to the Moderates or the Sweden Democrats, it has been the Social Democrats’ specialty for a long time. Have you already forgotten how undemocratic it was if the Social Democrats didn’t win the election?

        This is always how it sounds when the Social Democrats are caught red-handed.

        Apparently, it was also a threat to democracy if the Social Democrats were not allowed to keep their tax-free and unregulated lottery.
        https://www.gp.se/ledare/s-lotterier-undergraver-demokratin.477caf87-bb27-428f-a338-5a6a1ddb8c0a

  19. MXT

    “I have donated 650,000 SEK to Ukraine, for the purchase of a car for myself.”
    “Uh, how did you think then?”
    “Well, the car is needed to be able to fill it with necessities that will be transported to Ukraine.”
    “I see, how many deliveries have been made so far?”
    “Well, none so far.”

    It’s been almost a year.
    In Sweden’s support package number 17 (announced in September 2024), 2.3 billion SEK was included for:

    “Equipment sets for JAS 39C/D – creating conditions to potentially support Ukraine with JAS 39 Gripen at a later stage.”

    https://www.regeringen.se/globalassets/regeringen/dokument/forsvarsdepartementet/presentationsbilder-fran-presstraff/2024/presstraff-9-september/presentationsbilder-fran-presstraff-den-9-september-2024.pdf

    I think it’s time for some journalists to ask some questions about why we haven’t seen any Gripens in Ukraine yet.

  20. MXT

    “In Ryssland Belgorod region, tjetjenska kämpar visade vem som bestämmer genom att attackera ryska militärpoliser. Poliserna hade stoppat dem för att köra mot färdriktningen utan registreringsskyltar – och fick betala för det.”

      3. Westley Richard

        SMHI’s measuring stations are normally located at a height of 1.5 to 2 meters. This is convenient when manual readings were taken.

        There is quite a big difference compared to the ground temperature. The ground absorbs heat and cold and is quite slow to change.

        Offtopic
        I have a relatively simple weather station that, besides controlling many things in the house, also reports data to, among others, SMHI.

    2. jahojariaho

      Maskirovka! If there is no money, then #fckptn says you should save! Sounds better and is called Maskirovka! Only lies come out of that man’s mouth! It’s important to interpret what he says!

  26. MXT

    “Ukrainian soldiers are sharing their combat experience with U.S. troops, demonstrating how they adjust HIMARS strikes using the Leleka-100 drone during joint training exercises in Romania.”

  28. MXT

    Several Swedish politicians are in Budapest to participate in the Pride parade – despite it being banned by the Hungarian government. This is reported by TT.

    Two of them are the Member of Parliament Ulrika Westerlund and the Member of the European Parliament Alice Bah Kuhnke from the Green Party. Bah Kuhnke argues that Hungary is no longer a democracy and that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has “realized a dictator’s agenda.”
    https://omni.se/politikerna-protesterar-i-ungern-inte-en-demokrati/a/0VardA

    “A record number of people, more than 35,000, are expected to participate in today’s pride parade in Budapest. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has recently imposed a ban and therefore the parade does not have a police permit.

    Yesterday, Orbán said that the police will not dissolve the parade, but that participants should expect legal consequences. Participating can result in fines of around 5,000 SEK and the organizers risk a year in prison.”
    https://omni.se/rekordmanga-vantas-delta-pa-prideparaden-i-budapest/a/1MarxM

    2. Lasse W

      Is there anything special about homosexuals? They have always existed. In my old hometown in central Sweden, no one ever talked about them.

      1. MacMelmac

        Those with the greatest fear of homosexuality usually have the most uncertainty about their own sexuality. They are afraid that they might enjoy having the bus parked in the meatball kitchen.

  29. MXT

    More than 84,000 Palestinians were killed in the Gaza War between October 2023 and January 2025, according to a new study. The scientific journal Nature writes that this is the first independent mapping that has been done.

    More than half were women, children, or individuals over 65 years old. The majority of the deaths, around 75,000, were caused by violence, while the rest were the result of factors such as starvation and disease.

  30. MXT

    Incorrect information about the number of missing persons in Gaza has been widely spread on social media in recent days. This concerns posts claiming that 377,000 Palestinians have “disappeared” as a result of Israel’s warfare.

    The figure is based on a misinterpretation of a map in a report by an Israeli professor, published in the open archive Harvard Dataverse.

    “If someone had asked me about these numbers, I could have clarified it immediately. Instead, the figure was further spread by individuals who had neither read the report nor stopped to think,” says Yaakov Garb, professor of environmental science and author of the report.

  31. Bal

    I must admit that I am seriously uninformed. The USA demands 5% per member as a fee for NATO. They probably assume that the money will end up with their defense industry. Tough luck for them, I hope.

    Now, the question is, will the USA also go up to 5%, and how has this been communicated to the population/reactions.

    1. MacMelmac

      It’s a good question. From what I’ve gathered, Poland is/was at the top, the USA is a few steps further down, at 3.2%.
      It could be that the USA feels they have carried too much historical weight, so they think they can stay where they are.

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