The war in Ukraine 2025-08-04

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Russian losses in Ukraine:

  • 1010 KIA
  • 1 Tank
  • 8 AFVs
  • 28 Artillery systems
  • 77 UAVs
  • 1 Cruise missile
  • 85 Vehicles & Fuel tanks

SLAVA UKRAINI

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29 thoughts on “The war in Ukraine 2025-08-04”

  1. MXT
    AFU “In total, 183 combat encounters were recorded during the past day.
    Yesterday, the opponent launched one rocket and 65 aviation strikes at the positions of Ukrainian units and settlements, applied one rocket and 103 controlled bombs. In addition, carried out 4307 shells, 100 of them from jet fire systems, and deployed 2,419 kamikaze drones to impress.”
  3. MXT

    ⚡️Användning av 57mm S-60 luftvärnskanon för att bekämpa attackdronar. Vi kan se att kanonen är utrustad med en laser (tydligen en del av siktsystemet). En annan luftvärnskanon används tillsammans med S-60, vars skott syns i början av videon.

  8. MXT

    “Around 15 Russian soldiers were killed in a HIMARS strike on a military logistics base near the village of Bilovske, Belgorod region, according to Russian sources. The strike hit a concentration of personnel and equipment. Following the attack, the base was relocated.”

  9. MXT

    Crude Oil is now at ~67.2 and turned down from 70.
    The turnaround is probably due to OPEC announcing that they intend to increase production (again).

    Russian Urals Crude Oil is now only a dollar or two below the regular, currently at 65.7.

    The price would need to be significantly pushed down. Those new maximum prices of 48USD/barrel that were announced some time ago seem to have had no impact at all so far. This is probably because Europe is not one of Russia’s major customers. Most of it goes to India and China.

    If India were to stop buying Russian oil after Trump’s threat of secondary sanctions, it would have a significant impact. At the same time, it would be costly for India to switch suppliers as they currently get Russian oil cheaply. Additionally, prices are at risk of rising (despite OPEC) if Russian oil is no longer available.

    Regarding India, Beefeater states:
    “🇮🇳🛢️ India faces multi-billion dollar losses if it stops buying Russian oil — Bloomberg. Assuming that the $5 per barrel discount is reduced at 1.8 million barrels per day, India’s import costs could increase by $9-11 billion a year. 1/3”
    https://bsky.app/profile/beefeaterfella.bsky.social/post/3lvjvpgiw5c27

    How they choose to proceed, of course, depends on what Trump comes up with. India is dependent on the USA, but the USA is also dependent on India. The USA buys just over twice as much in monetary terms as India buys from the USA.
    Trump has the idea that an uneven trade balance is unfair, so he is naturally not satisfied even from the beginning with India. High tariffs could hit the USA just as hard, but Trump doesn’t seem to realize that now.

    India already imports oil and petroleum products from the USA today, and it has increased in recent times.

    (In monetary terms, India imports more oil from Russia than they do in total from the USA.)

    Trump could choose to pressure them to increase that import even more from the USA instead of imposing tariffs.
    Now, I don’t know how much more oil the USA can produce, if they can take over production from Russia, but Trump has repeatedly said that oil production should increase, and they have scrapped some environmental regulations and other things to simplify extraction.

    If Trump succeeds with this, it would be a hard blow to Russia (if it doesn’t lead to very significant price increases, of course), while the USA will benefit from increased exports.

    This would probably be the first smart thing Trump does and something he should have done already six months ago, and something that Biden/Europe should have done three years ago.

    Not many days left now until we see what Trump comes up with.

    1. Umlaut

      There was a lot of talk about the Russians not having the know-how to take care of their petroleum industry, especially not to refine into petroleum products. From what I’ve read, it seems that the export of petroleum products is almost at pre-war levels. Is it because: 

      1. The Russians can handle it themselves. 
      2. There is Western expertise on site and/or they can import materials to maintain and repair damaged facilities.
      3. Some other foreign actor has taken over where others left off.
      4. The industry was far from operating at full capacity, so there was room to increase production elsewhere when facilities break down.
      1. MXT

        It is difficult to obtain exact figures, but the distribution of Russia’s exports has traditionally been between 65-80% crude oil and 20-35% petroleum products, and it seems to still be at approximately the same level.

        India imports in a ratio of about 80/20, so it’s not just crude oil, which is the common perception, that India imports crude oil and sells refined products to the rest of the world, using it as a way to circumvent sanctions.

        Russia has halted the export of gasoline and diesel several times to try to manage domestic supply and keep prices down.

        Despite producing so much, one would think that Russia should have both the technology and expertise, but apparently they are heavily dependent on equipment from, among others, the USA, Switzerland, and others, at least for certain parts of the process. The Russians can handle a lot themselves, but not everything.

        https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-sanctions-hamper-russian-efforts-repair-refineries-sources-say-2024-04-04/

        https://www.googpro.org/russia-is-struggling-to-repair-refineries-due-to-sanctions

        Unfortunately, they eventually get hold of most of the parts they need.
        There are certainly plenty of experts who are eager to make a lot of money as well.

        With additional sanctions and stricter controls, it might be possible to cripple Russia, especially if Ukraine continues to target the refineries with drones.

        But going back to your comment, the Russians cannot handle everything themselves, but the other three points you list may well be accurate.

        There are several different oil companies, and they may have solved the situation in various ways, perhaps by finding external companies that are less scrupulous, or by directly hiring expertise, etc.

        It also appears to be true that they were far from maximum production, even during the war. In 2024, the plan was to produce 275 million per year, while the maximum capacity was 312 million tons, a difference of about 10-15%.

        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-22/russia-s-spare-refining-capacity-seen-mitigating-drone-attacks

        Before the war, it was estimated that the excess capacity was 20-30%.

    2. 205

      It would be a step in the right direction. Removing India as an oil customer for Russia should, considering that China and India are the largest oil customers for Russia, and that oil is Russia’s largest export revenue, severely undermine Russia’s economy. With such a step, it also does not seem likely that the USA will start buying oil from Russia. It would ruin the deal. Some inflation may still have to be expected since it is probably more expensive to extract oil in the USA than in Russia?

      1. MXT

        Well, it will be unavoidable to have price increases if India is forced to buy more from the USA. That oil is significantly more expensive. But as you write, maybe that’s something one has to accept.

        Oil and gas are the largest, but they still export quite a lot of petroleum products and they get a little more paid for that too. If Ukraine can knock out more refineries, they will eventually have destroyed that market.

         

    3. Flurrevuppen

      Increased oil supply at lower prices is unlikely to primarily come from the USA due to high production costs.

      Low-cost production is probably mainly found within OPEC+ and the North Sea.

       

      1. MXT

        Sure, if the USA were to force India to buy oil from them, it would be at a significantly higher price.

        At the same time, all prices would rise if Russian oil disappeared from the market.

        And IF Russia cannot export its oil at all (or in significantly smaller quantities), then it doesn’t matter if prices rise either.

        Of course, the risk is that someone else might choose to buy the cheap Russian oil instead.

    4. MXT

      I have checked a bit and the USA also has an overcapacity. Today, it would be enough to replace approximately 60-70% of the oil that India currently imports from Russia. At the same time, the USA’s production capacity has been increased, and since it involves a lot of fracking from shale fields, it is quite quick to further expand production. Setting up a new rig and starting extraction within 1-3 months.

      Trump has removed many obstacles when it comes to environmental assessments, etc.

      Of course, it also requires that there is available capacity within the companies to perform the work. Both equipment and expertise are needed.

    5. Westley Richard

      Not easy with the Russian oil exports. 

      We need it so that the oil price does not crash our economy while at the same time we do not want the Russians to make any money from it.

      A price ceiling is a good idea, the question is how good we are at following up to ensure that the price ceiling is actually being followed and if it is low enough?

      Then we have the question of which countries should be allowed to buy the oil?

      Should it be reserved for developing countries?

      How long should we let India get away with being a developing country? 

      A country with nuclear weapons, space industry, and prominent IT, is it a developing country just because there are many poor people in the country?

       

  10. 205

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 19💥
    S Slobozhansky 8
    Kupyansk 9💥↗️
    Lyman 29💥💥↗️
    Siverskyi 5↗️
    Kramatorsk 8↗️
    Toretsk 13💥↗️
    Pokrovsk 49💥💥💥↗️
    Novopavlivka 22💥💥↗️
    Huliaypillia 0
    Orikhivsk 0
    Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 2

  11. 205

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 19💥
    S Slobozhansky 8
    Kupyansk 9💥↗️
    Lyman 29💥💥↗️
    Siverskyi 5↗️
    Kramatorsk 8↗️
    Toretsk 13💥↗️
    Pokrovsk 49💥💥💥↗️
    Novopavlivka 22💥💥↗️
    Huliaypillia 0
    Orikhivsk 0
    Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 2

      1. 205

        Doesn’t feel entirely clear yet. Thought so yesterday but then it rose to high levels today. But maybe the dips are becoming more frequent. The Russians are grinding towards Pokrovsk/Nobopokrovsk, Lyman, and Kursk/Sumy (N Slobozhansky-Kursk) and can still show the same amount of attacks as a day in early summer. But as I said, without looking at the numbers, my impression is that there have been some dips recently that haven’t occurred before and may indicate decreased strength.

    1. MXT

      Russia is probably starting to feel pressured now, and I think we will see the number of sabotage increase (or at least attempts at sabotage).

  13. MXT

    “The national security chief of Moldova warns of Russian interference in the country’s election next month, reports Politico.

    Stanislav Secrieru states that Russian actors are trying to influence Moldovans living outside the country not to vote in the election, and that disinformation against Moldovans abroad has increased significantly in recent times.

    – The campaign is designed to demobilize voters in the diaspora – by encouraging them to stay at home – and to manipulate those who vote to support a false pro-EU force, he tells Politico.”

  14. MXT

    Israel – Palestine

    Agree with them. “Large demonstrations have been held in Tel Aviv over the weekend after Palestinian Islamists released propaganda videos with two Israeli hostages. The demonstrators’ anger is directed at both Hamas and the Israeli government.

    – We have had enough of Netanyahu and Hamas, says protester Ami Dror to SVT.

    A spokesperson for an organization representing the hostages told the newspaper Haaretz that “Netanyahu is leading Israel and the hostages towards destruction”.

    One of the two videos recently released shows a very emaciated man. His relatives have confirmed that it is Rom Braslavski.” https://omni.se/israelisk-ilska-fatt-nog-av-netanyahu-och-hamas/a/zAqnJ4

    1. MXT

      Not only protesters who believe it is time for the war to end.

      “600 former high-ranking security officials in Israel have signed a letter urging Donald Trump to increase pressure on the Israeli government, reports the Jerusalem Post.

      In the letter, they write, among other things, that the terrorist group Hamas is no longer “a strategic threat” to Israel. They now want to see Trump “steer” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war.

      Among those who signed the letter are former heads of Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad, the security service Shin Bet, and the military IDF.

      “The IDF has long since achieved the two goals that can be achieved through violence: to dismantle Hamas’ military formations and rule. The third, and most important, can only be achieved through an agreement: to bring all hostages home,” they write in the appeal.”
      https://omni.se/600-tidigare-israeliska-sakerhetstoppar-i-oppet-brev-mot-regeringen/a/1MLKqJ

    2. MXT

      At the same time, there are protesters in the UK who apparently do not understand that this type of action only destroys for the Palestinians and themselves. Furthermore, it disrupts for the entire population when the police have to devote time to foolishness instead of focusing on law enforcement.

      “In the UK, thousands of pro-Palestinian demonstrators are planning to overload the country’s legal system, reports The Telegraph. It all stems from the fact that the group Palestine Action, supported by the country’s terrorism laws, was recently labeled as illegal.

      Therefore, the protesters are now planning to sit on streets and squares with signs bearing the message: ‘I oppose genocide. I support Palestine Action’. In this way, they want to challenge the legal system and see what happens when the police have to deal with thousands of cases at once.

      Since July 5, more than 200 people have been arrested for expressing support for the group.”
      https://omni.se/brittiska-propalestinier-ska-overbelasta-polisen/a/wgq17G

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