The war in Ukraine 2025-08-10

By /

Russian losses in Ukraine:

950 KIA

1 Tank

4 AFVs

70 Artillery systems

4 MLRS

140 UAVs

1 Cruise missile

126 Vehicles & Fuel tanks

SLAVA UKRAINI

facebookShare on Facebook
TwitterPost on X


Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!

ADS
As you have probably noticed, we now have ads on the site. The ads and their placement are managed by Google, which also tries to optimize it automatically. We will let it run for a few weeks to see where it ends up. Some placements feel quite large, but it might get better.
We will then post a survey to hear what you think, if there are too many ads, if there are certain placements that are particularly annoying, etc. so we can make any adjustments after that.

55 thoughts on “The war in Ukraine 2025-08-10”

    5. MXT

      The Saratov refinery has an annual capacity of 7 million tons according to Rosneft. Not one of Russia’s largest, but based on the movies and FIRMS, it is probably considered fully depreciated for a long, long time.

    1. Umlaut

      Put pressure on Putin himself! 🌮 continues to be 🌮. Where are the extensive sanctions that were supposed to be implemented this past Friday? Those of us who voted here seem to unfortunately have been completely correct in our assumption.

    2. 205

      What can make a difference in this, provided that European leaders stand their ground, is that Trump has to choose between an improved relationship with Putin or maintaining relations with Europe. The choice should be obvious from an economic perspective. Russia corresponds to one or a few larger nations in Europe economically. At the same time, Trump is becoming increasingly independent of China.

    1. MXT

      Not entirely impossible. He wants to portray Zelenskyy as an illegitimate leader of Ukraine, if he agrees to a meeting, that narrative falls flat. 

  6. MXT

    “A massive strike on the military camp of the Taman Division of the Russian Armed Forces. The entire camp was destroyed: from military equipment and weapons to underwear and other household items. “Recently, we were subjected to a massive attack by the enemy, and our entire camp was destroyed. Everything was destroyed: personal belongings, weapons, vehicles, and medical supplies.” Lyman direction.”

  8. 205

    A somewhat low-intensity front. No segments for intensity are off the charts. However, Pokrovsk is high but at a lower level than most of the past months. Instead, it seems that the fighting is spread over more fronts. So the total is still quite high, 160.

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 16💥↗️
    S Slobozhansky 5↘️
    Kupyansk 6
    Lyman 22💥
    Siverskyi 7↗️
    Kramatorsk 4
    Toretsk 7↘️
    Pokrovsk 43💥💥
    Novopavlivka 20💥↘️
    Huliaypillia 1
    Orikhivsk 3
    Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 6

    1. MXT

      Oh my.

      Those who are Anti-Woke are also against those DEI where equality is included, and many conservatives prefer that women give birth to as many children as possible and spend the rest of their time taking care of them and standing in the kitchen. Then it’s not far from depriving them of the right to vote either.

      They also appreciate “strong leaders,” so if we take another step back, it’s probably the one who is best at swinging the club who should get to decide.

      Then the same individuals complain about environmentalists and claim that they want to take us back in development and live like peasants when they themselves want to regress even further, to the caveman era.

      Yes, I’m being sarcastic, of course, but I’m not wrong either.

      1. Flurrevuppen

        We, who are in favor of a rational policy in the areas of climate, environment, and energy, thank you for not being lumped together with American Christian fundamentalists. 

  10. MXT

    I have looked a bit at the Russian refining operations to assess how much damage Ukraine is actually causing, and how much they could do.
    Russia refines approx: 265 million tons of oil per year but they have an overcapacity and can max out at 300Mt/year. Before Ukraine’s attacks have a really serious effect, one would need to knock out closer to 45Mt/year capacity and then some more. Simplified of course. Each attack obviously has a certain effect.

    Looking at the spring of 2024 and the attacks that were carried out then and how quickly the Russians could repair and restart production, it is around 2-4 weeks in most cases. Some technology comes from the West, but they probably have plenty of spare parts and the damages probably haven’t been total.
    The columns are quite robust so they probably haven’t needed to be replaced but could be repaired.
    Building a new column can take several months, but production hasn’t been down for that long.

    If the Russians can repair so quickly, Ukraine must therefore knock out several columns/refineries every month (at least over 50Mt/year) just to eliminate the overcapacity + some more.
    Then they can strike the same refineries again after they have been repaired.

    Now Ukraine has had over a year to further develop and improve their drones. With more powerful explosives, it is very possible that they can cause significantly more damage now than before.
    Looking at last night’s attack, it seems to have had a real effect based on the images and videos that have been seen. Hopefully, it will actually take several months before they can restart.
    7Mt/year is of course not much out of 300Mt total, but they hit two more refineries in August and hopefully we will see more.

    One problem for Ukraine is that the largest facilities are located on the other side of Russia. There are refineries with capacities of up to 18Mt/year. It is unlikely that they have managed to reach there.
    On the other hand, one can imagine smuggled drones that do not need to have the full range.

    Looking at the total capacity within reach (<1000km) it amounts to approx: 130Mt/year. So it is not far from half of the total capacity, so they do not need to reach the other end of Russia.

    Furthermore, if they manage to maintain the pressure for a longer period, Russia will probably also have problems with repairs as it will be difficult to obtain spare parts and possibly even expertise. They hardly have the capacity to panic-repair 5-6 refineries simultaneously if it is more complex parts like columns that have been damaged.

    Panic repairs can also lead to having to reschedule or extend the service stops later on.

    Even if they manage to repair relatively quickly, it costs huge amounts of money. One can also imagine that refinery workers start considering other careers.

    Since the refineries that are not hit and are operational must run at maximum capacity without service stops, they will eventually need maintenance. Additionally, accidents are not uncommon, and the risk of them also increases.

    One should not forget about the depots. Every time they are forced to change the logistics, and that too can force refineries to reduce production if there are storage issues with the finished products.

    Russia has once again stopped the export of fuel and prices in Russia have been raised. To some extent, this is probably also because this is a period when they usually carry out service stops, but the three refineries that were hit will not make things better and then it's only the 10th of August.

    If Ukraine can maintain the pressure and hit around 5-10 refineries per month (>25-75Mt/year) and some depots, it will have a huge impact in the end.

    In the spring of 2024, they didn’t quite reach a serious crisis (although it cost Russia a lot anyway) but now over a year later, Ukraine probably has completely different possibilities.

    Then maybe Zelenskyy receives calls from various quarters asking him to stop, but I hope that he hangs up the phone and ignores it or simply requests military support or something else in return.

    Neither the USA nor Europe has done enough to stop Russia so they have no right to complain.
    A crashed Russian economy is one of the strongest cards to make Russia give up.
    Sharply increased fuel prices in Russia will affect everyone.

    Looking forward to a hot autumn.

    1. 205

      👍 Having only in August knocked out three refineries, including one of 7M tons/year, seems like being at the forefront when it comes to knocking out 50M tons/year, conservatively speaking.

      Then we have seen drones travel 1300 km or more. It is, however, a fraction of what is needed to reach Siberia and the refining industry in the east. Here, some donated submarines would be a possibility. We have seen patrol burners send drones around Crimea.

      1. MXT

        Yes, August has really started well.

        If they get three solid hits like the one last night, they won’t be able to recover in just a few weeks.

  13. MXT

    🤬 The Russians attacked the railway station in Synelnykovo, Dnipropetrovsk region, — Ukrzaliznytsia 🚂 Currently, all trains and electric trains through Synelnykovo have been canceled.

  16. 205

    ”Just thought I’d better illustrate the breadth of aggression and terror that Ukraine has been holding off – largely on its own – for THREE AND A HALF YEARS.

    THAT is the size of the country against which Ukrainians are defending themselves. Defending democracy and freedom.

    You DON’T reward the aggressor by giving it more of Ukraine. NO.

    #russiaisaterroriststate #StandWithUkraine”

    — @anno1540

  17. Peter Den Större

    I wonder if von der Lyen is tempted to play any role here or if she is content with fluffing up her hair and coming up with new treasures.

  18. MXT

    Ulf Kristersson and Volodymyr Zelensky have had discussions on Sunday, write the two leaders in separate posts on social media. According to the Ukrainian president, the cooperation “within the development of the Ukrainian military aviation” was discussed. “Right now we are deciding which combat platforms our air force will work with in the future. We agreed that our teams – from Ukraine and Sweden – will work thoroughly on this issue,” Zelensky writes on Telegram.

  19. MXT

    “In the course of a week, Vladimir Putin has managed to extricate himself from a tricky situation and secured a dream position in the Ukraine negotiations, writes Paul Sonne in an analysis in the New York Times. Ever since Donald Trump took office, Putin has wanted a one-on-one meeting without Volodymyr Zelenskyj. This week, it was announced that it will happen. Pressured by the threat of American sanctions, Putin opened up this week to negotiate Ukrainian territory. By speaking a language Trump understands – the language of the real estate world – Putin succeeded in securing what he has been striving for since January. The outcome of the meeting risks being disastrous for Ukraine, writes the independent Russian analyst Tatiana Stanovaja. There is no indication that Putin has changed his long-term goals in Ukraine.”

    1. Peter Den Större

      And the meeting is to be held in Alaska – which once was Russian. A reminder that regions can be bought and sold. Completely in Putin’s direction. And I ask myself once again, is Trump completely clueless or is he still trying to get Europe to put on their marching boots.

    2. johan No.1

      The narrative that Putin manipulates Trump is still ongoing, why?

      Aren’t we now certain that everything we see is a well-prepared facade and that the USA – Russia are in direct contact all the time?

      Trump is furious with Medvedev – a show for the idiots to latch onto.

      Trump is deceived – no, he is not deceived, he knows exactly what he is doing.

      These clowns are given space in newspapers to push this completely inaccurate picture of what is happening.

  20. johan No.1

    I don’t know if we’re avoiding writing about this because it hasn’t come up, but RU has just made a “thunder-run” (in their very own way with people as fuel) north of Pokrovsk.

    A 7km deep incursion.

    It may not be huge, but the problem is that they cut across two lines with well-prepared defense – don’t know if they got into the second one or died in front of it.

    Suggesting that Ukraine doesn’t have the personnel to man, and then it’s just a hole in the ground to step over.

    Since RU has prepared 100,000 in offensive reserve in the area, this is not great.

    1. 205

      Location?

      Wasn’t it this one?

      https://x.com/anno1540/status/1954471003234386307?s=46

      The enemy sent 150 units of meat in the form of sabotage and reconnaissance groups (SRGs) to #Pokrovsk – only 30 arrived — DeepState

      According to the enemy’s plan, several tactical groups of 50 people each were formed from three infantry companies in the settlement of #Selidove for sabotage actions in #Pokrovsk.

      The enemy’s goal was to create panic and force the units to flee the city, as happened in Selidove.

      The entire route from Selidove to Pokrovsk took the Muscovites 14 days.

      The groups managed to reach Defenders of Ukraine Street in Pokrovsk. Enemy infantrymen covered about 600 meters daily, using cloaks for camouflage and cover, trying not to be noticed.

      All the support for this gang was provided by drones.

      About 120 out of 150 people were killed by air drops; some may have survived after being wounded. On July 19, the survivors began to infiltrate Pokrovsk and carry out sabotage actions.

      The search for the remnants of the groups continues. This week, another part of the “saboteurs” surrendered.

      Source by:
      https://t.me/Bratchuk_Sergey/136046

  21. johan No.1

    Do you remember our discussion in 2024 MXT about the refineries and I extrapolated that 30% of Russian refineries were knocked out?

    There were over 60 attacks with burning fire clouds.

    Now there are 4 attacks and then I can promise that China has deployed interceptor AI drones at high-value targets in Russia now.

    Personally, I think this is too little too late – if Ukraine had been allowed to continue its 2024 campaign undisturbed and go after oil exports, oil fields, the shadow fleet, ports, Putin on May 9th, and so on, it might have made a difference.

    Or start putting drones in the Kremlin, Frunzenskaya, and all that to show that Putin was weak when things were at their worst for him.

    But they weren’t allowed to do that by Europe and the USA, who apparently were in agreement behind closed doors 😐

    Now it’s a final display before the ceasefire, maybe to motivate Putin a bit?

    1. MXT

      Well, there were many attacks but also over many months and several were not so powerful. Seems like they are using higher explosive power now.

      Ukraine would need to knock out as many as they can at the same time, so they don’t have time to be repaired.

      Sure, it would have been better if they could have continued already a year ago and considering the peace negotiations it may be too late, but still completely right of them to speed up again.

      1. Fram i Natten

        Waiting for the ballistic missiles that the Ukrainians are developing.
        But they might be intended for vomiting first and foremost…

  22. Kons

    @JohanNo1 and others. The latest Shield of the Republic where they interview Fred Starr, Russia expert and also regarding Central Asia and -stan at the end. You just have to listen.

    https://www.thebulwark.com/p/putins-growing-body-count?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

    An alternative scenario that arises is that Putin attacks Lithuania according to Johan’s scenario but that the military actually revolts and removes Putin as they “have had enough of humiliation and decimation.”

    Another interesting theory he had was that Russia has actually run out of manpower and is sending mercenaries from around the world as well as women to the front lines.

    The domestic economy becomes extremely costly to transition from a war economy. There are businessmen in Russia who are not robber barons from the 90s and those who fall out of windows are those who have not paid the mafia regime.

    Well, just listen, I’m not very good at summarizing.

    1. 205

      Thank you, interesting. Russian bloggers critical, logistics have failed. And according to a Russian bank director ‘we’ve spent the kitty’. Out of funds.

  23. Peter Den Större

    Several signals indicate that the Russian economy is literally gasping for air, which is probably also the reason why Putin is seeking a temporary ceasefire. In fact, right now is the perfect moment for Ukraine and Europe to strike together, a better opportunity to halt Mordor’s expansion we will not get.

Leave a Comment

Scroll to Top