The war in Ukraine 2025-10-05

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Russian losses:

  • 870 KIA
  • 4 Tanks
  • 1 AFV
  • 18 Artillery systems
  • 1 MLRS
  • 320 UAVs
  • 35 Vehicles & Fuel tanks

Glory to Ukraine

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55 thoughts on “The war in Ukraine 2025-10-05”

  1. MXT

    “Lviv has been particularly hard hit this morning as the first missiles reached Ukraine shortly after 05:30. Cruise, Ballistic and lately hypersonic Kindzhal missiles have all been fired. Fires have broken out in Lviv after hits in the region.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/twmcltd.bsky.social/post/3m2gaatid4k2k

    “Even before missiles arrived, it was clear the bulk of Russia’s drone wave was already heading west to try to soften-up and confuse air defence in, and around, Lviv.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/twmcltd.bsky.social/post/3m2gadrrfyk2k
    https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:3fblwf3cqm26ffysek3x3zbe/bafkreiendqbqrv6vagj4q3ogwlrdoh5keuk7k7hsokqmwbqc43aczxfi4u@jpeg

  6. maggan

    Ridiculous to be impatient at home in safe Sweden, but hope is reignited for a soon end. This time thanks to Operation Soup Bowl.

    Previously it was Spiderweb, the time before that it was the Azov Thrust, before that Vodka Run, etc.

    What will really put an end to this for the Russians? Good gut feeling again, but maybe I’m biased as usual (:

    1. Proxima

      Two things I believe bite best on Putin and Russia. Crimea and protests from the Russian population.
      If Putin loses Crimea and it becomes a walk of shame across the Kerch Bridge, the battle is lost. It is also important that the protest movements in Russia make themselves properly heard.

      1. MXT

        The lack of gasoline may be what triggers the population to start protesting. It affects virtually everyone and suddenly the war is something that people notice.

        In many interviews conducted with ordinary Russians, they often say that they don’t notice the war at all. Some admit that they know of some who have gone to Ukraine to fight, or who have died, but other than that, they just seem to shrug as if the war doesn’t affect them.

    2. MXT

      In some way, Ukraine finds something new, but when they strike against refineries, depots, and pumping stations, etc., it is probably the Achilles’ heel they hit. Then how far it will go is of course difficult to say.

      Unfortunately, the Russians are starting to cage in the entire refineries now, hoping Ukraine has come as far as they say when it comes to Flamingo, because something similar will probably be required in the future and not just simpler, lighter drones.

      But as mentioned, there are plenty of pumping stations to attack as well.

      1. Proxima

        You are absolutely right there MXT. That is probably the Achilles’ heel.
        Regarding Crimea. To take Crimea, air superiority is probably required.
        I don’t know how well the F16 works in Ukraine. It is without a doubt a good aircraft, but does it work in Ukraine? It is a NATO aircraft built for NATO bases and with a lot of service personnel around. Mirage might be more suitable for Ukraine. There has been a lot of back and forth between Zelensky and Kristersson lately, and Sweden has tried to divert attention by suggesting that it concerns the Gripen E when the war is over. That’s probably the case. But you don’t interrupt an EU summit in Copenhagen to discuss what will happen after the war. That can be addressed at a more appropriate time. Even a dimwit like me understands what it’s about. And I don’t even need to mention that.

        1. MXT

          An air superiority is probably needed as you write, and Ukraine has been attacking Russian air defense on Crimea for quite some time to pave the way for it. Whether Gripen is needed to handle it or if F-16 is enough is hard to say, but regardless, it probably requires quite a few planes and pilots.

          It’s been a while since we heard about further F-16 deliveries, maybe Gripen is next in line!

    3. 205

      Outages of raff & fuel shortage and Crimea can certainly turn the situation around. And maybe it has already started.

      Another reason why it could turn around I speculated about in yesterday’s thread. I’ll paste it in:

      Fram i Natten 2025-10-04 at 21:19:11

      It would be so nice with a major ryzk collapse with lots of surrendered brigades.

       
      205 2025-10-04 at 23:19:04

      Keep an eye on Toretsk / Pokrovsk / Novopavlivka. As I write above, they have indeed gained ground. But it’s about marginal gains against huge losses. At the same time, Ukraine has also intensified on the front line. This explains why the number of battles is constantly high. Moreover, the fact that it’s even is confirmed by Ukraine also gaining ground. Encircling Russians. It becomes like a tug of war. When one can’t handle the pressure and gives in, it goes quickly. Then it can be as you write.

  7. 205

    Some increasing and noticeable pressure in the north. Luhansk: Increasing and noticeable pressure in Lyman and sharply increasing and noticeable pressure in Siviersk. Donetsk (Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka): full-on and increasing. Weakened and low pressure in the south.

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 7
    S Slobozhansky 12💥
    Kupyansk 4
    Lyman 19💥
    Siverskyi 12💥↗️
    Kramatorsk 2
    Toretsk 12💥
    Pokrovsk 60💥💥💥
    Novopavlivka 34💥💥
    Huliaypillia 1
    Orikhivsk 1
    Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 3

  8. MXT
    AFU reports:
    • 188 combat clashes
    • 81 aviation strikes
    • 182 KAB
    • 4373 shellings (103 from MLRS)
    • 5857 kamikaze drones
    Unfortunately, the drones seem to have increased again and also many KAB.
    1. 205

      Uncertain investment if one was thinking of buying from CH. Delivery refusal earlier in the war of air defense ammunition for the German system.

  16. MXT

    Off-Topic, Israel – Palestine

    “The negotiations for a ceasefire in exchange for Israeli hostages did not go as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanted, writes David M. Halbfinger in an analysis in the New York Times.

    On Friday, Hamas responded that they were ready to release all hostages but did not say when.

    Michael Herzog, Netanyahu’s former ambassador to the USA, stated that it is ‘a ‘no’ disguised as a ‘yes’.’

    SVT’s Middle East correspondent says in an analysis that for the first time in a long time, there is optimism among both Palestinians and Israelis. But he emphasizes that there are no guarantees that the ceasefire will succeed.

    ‘Now probably very difficult and chaotic days are awaiting,’ says Samir Abu Eid.”
    https://omni.se/analyser-finns-inga-garantier-for-att-vapenvilan-lyckas/a/zAdGB4

  17. MXT

    Zelenskyy:

    “❗️A unilateral ceasefire in the sky is possible, and it can open the way to real diplomacy, – Zelensky. “Today, the Russians again hit our infrastructure, everything that ensures a normal life for people.

    We need more protection, faster implementation of all defense agreements, especially regarding air defense, to make this aerial terror meaningless. A unilateral ceasefire in the sky is possible, and it can open the way to real diplomacy. America and Europe must act to force Putin to stop.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3m2gn2j5qus2c

  18. MXT

    “The GPS system in ambulances in Kalmar County is daily affected by problems suspected to be due to GPS disturbances from Russia, reports P4 Kalmar.

    – The image freezes. It doesn’t keep up with the map image. Or we completely lose the GPS signal so we have no positioning at all, says ambulance nurse Erik Håkansson on Öland.

    According to the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, the problems are likely due to Russian disturbances. It is especially likely if it is ambulances near the Baltic Sea coast that are affected.

    One of Region Kalmar’s IT coordinators tells P4 that he does not believe the problems pose any risks to patient safety.”
    https://omni.se/ambulansernas-gps-er-stors-ryssland-pekas-ut/a/vg4AXl

    1. 205

      Near the Baltic Sea coast? Maybe as bad as inside the Blekinge archipelago. But they are not visible. Camouflaged in some way. By the water?

      1. MXT

        Yes, not entirely impossible.

        (If someone had said at the beginning that the war in Ukraine would lead to Swedish ambulances having their GPS devices jammed by the Russians, many would probably have thought it was an exaggeration, but here we are now.)

  19. MXT

    As you have probably already read, the election in the Czech Republic went in the wrong direction.

    So far, the Czech Republic has been a strong ally to Ukraine, mainly through the ammunition initiative where they have delivered large quantities of grenades. Babi and Ano have expressed reduced support for Ukraine and also closing the borders. They will not even have a majority on their own and will need support further to the right.

    There is a great risk that the support will disappear and possibly also that Ukrainian refugees are no longer welcome. 

    “Czechia’s populist Ano party wins parliamentary elections, threatening future aid to Ukraine”
    https://kyivindependent.com/czechias-right-wing-anti-ukraine-party-wins-parliamentary-elections/

  21. MXT

    Off-Topic, US tariffs

    “🇺🇸 The impact of Trump’s tariffs is starting to show in consumer prices in the US, from cans of soup to car parts, – FT We are starting to see commodity inflation creeping up. More and more companies are openly talking about raising prices to compensate for higher costs of imported goods.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3m2gsr4ii322e
    https://www.ft.com/content/f4bd2952-7ce5-4943-9a23-3a297c5c78e3

  25. MXT

    Russian propaganda seems active in Norway.

    “Russian propaganda on Norway being run on social media: “Norwegian political scientist, professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway Glenn Diesen believes that the attempt to stage a “Maidan” in Georgia was orchestrated by the EU to open a second front against Russia.

    “Our hard-earned tax money is being spent in Georgia to fund so-called ‘non-governmental organizations’ whose goal is to destabilize and overthrow the government. Since NATO is running out of Ukrainian soldiers, they are looking for a new proxy.” 

    https://bsky.app/profile/beefeaterfella.bsky.social/post/3m2gydkzpuk2v

  26. MXT

    One of the worst Russian attacks on Ukraine even though it’s a bit far from the record but a pretty good ratio, 87% considering the amount.

    “478 🇷🇺missiles and 🇷🇺UAVs from 549 targets were shot down over 🇺🇦Ukraine today.

    ▪️439/496 – UAVs
    ▪️1/2 – Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
    ▪️32/42 – Kh-101/Iskander-K cruise missiles
    ▪️6/9 – Kalibr cruise missiles.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3m2gyalzpls2t

    1. Umlaut

      A truth with modification. The Finns are probably much better equipped, for a significantly cheaper price. The rest of us threw in the towel and invested in The Eternal Peace™ and now we have to pour in double the amount of money because everyone is making panic investments and outbidding each other for the same equipment.

  30. MXT

    Off-Topic, Trump Netanyahu

    Trump tycker att Netanyahu en pessimistisk surgubbe! 

    😄

    “När Hamas i fredags meddelade att de är redo att släppa alla gisslan ringde Donald Trump Benjamin Netanyahu för att tala om vad han kallade goda nyheter, uppger en amerikansk källa för Axios.

    Den israeliska premiärministern delade inte Trumps uppfattning och ska ha sagt att Hamas besked inte är något att fira eftersom det inte betyder något. Det här ska Trump inte ha uppskattat, som enligt källan svarade:

    – Varför är du alltid så jävla negativ? Det här är en seger, ta det som en sådan.

    Samtalet bekräftas av ytterligare en amerikansk källa. En israelisk källa uppger att premiärministern ser Hamas svar på Vita husets fredsplan som ett avfärdande, Trump är å andra sidan glad då han inte trodde att Hamas skulle gå med på något i fredsplanen.”
    https://omni.se/trump-varfor-ar-du-alltid-sa-javla-negativ-netanyahu/a/OoGQ51

  31. 205

    Anton Geraschenko about:

    The Czech ANO party, led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babis, won the parliamentary elections on October 3-4 with around 35% of the votes, according to preliminary results.

    About the Czech support for Ukraine, Babis said:

    I have met Zelensky three times, most recently in November 2019, and I support him after the annexation of Crimea. So, we are helping Ukraine through the EU.

    The EU is helping Ukraine, and it is included in the European budget, the next budget, and we are paying a lot of money to the European budget, and that is how we will continue to help.

    [F]: What about the ammunition initiative for Ukraine that Czechia has started?

    It should be transparent, and if there is a war, no one should profit from the war. It should be organized by NATO.

    [F]: Will you support Ukraine’s accession to the EU and NATO?

    But [Ukraine] is not ready for the EU. You must first end the war, and we can cooperate with Ukraine, but you are not ready for the EU.

     

    https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1974865917151522855?s=46

  32. 205

    World-famous British researcher’s message to Putin: History cannot justify the present According to professor Mark Galeotti, Putin must justify the war in Ukraine with history because he has not succeeded in fulfilling his promises to raise the standard of living.

    According to a British professor, Putin selectively chooses historical facts that suit him to justify his actions in Ukraine. Photo: Gavriil Grigorov / EPA and Yevgeny Khaldei / DPA via Reuters Connect, collage: Nanna Särkkä / Yle

    Professor Mark Galeotti is comfortably seated at home in Surrey, UK, for a remote interview with Yle. He often comments on Russia and the war in Ukraine from his point of view, which is no surprise. Galeotti has been described as one of the world’s most respected Russia experts. He has now published his book Russia Forged by War, which was translated into Finnish at the end of August. Galeotti’s original intention was to cover all the wars that Russia and the Soviet Union fought in the book. “It quickly became clear that this was an impossible task. I outlined all the wars I knew on paper, and the paper eventually became ten pages long,” says Galeotti. The book turned into an almost 600-page thick volume, starting with the birth of the Rus state in the 860s. The main idea behind the book was to compile the wars that have shaped Russia between two covers. It is safe to say that Galeotti knows what he is talking about when it comes to Russian history. Another person obsessed with the country’s past is Vladimir Putin. Putin often justifies his actions as Russia’s leader with history. What does Galeotti think of Putin as an interpreter of history?

    Putin at the buffet table Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin said that “present-day Ukraine was entirely created by Russia.” More precisely, it was Bolshevik, communist Russia that created it. This process began almost immediately after the 1917 revolution. In his speech, Putin ignored the fact that Ukrainians declared their independence while Russia was embroiled in a chaotic civil war and the Bolsheviks took power in Russia. Of course, Ukraine was drawn back into the Soviet Russian fold in the 1920s. Galeotti is frustrated with Putin’s interpretation of history. “He treats history like a buffet. He picks out what he likes and ignores the facts he doesn’t like.”

    Professor Mark Galeotti says that Putin is trying to construct a narrative of a great Russia that has saved the world on several occasions. Galeotti acknowledges that Kiev and Ukraine have been an important part of Russia’s history. For example, Kiev was one of the most important cities in the Kievan Rus, but that refers to events in the Middle Ages. “We are talking about a time when soldiers came from Scandinavia and took power in the Kievan Rus.” Galeotti refers to the Vikings. Putin makes a major mistake in how he uses history to draw conclusions. According to Galeotti, history cannot be used to justify how things should be now. If that were the case, the state of Saxony could declare independence from Germany. At the same time, different regions in Italy could also demand independence, as Italy was first united by force in the 1870s.

    History replaces the social contract Putin’s enthusiasm for history raises the question of why he bases Russia’s actions so strongly on the past. Galeotti bases his answer on ideology. According to him, Russia currently lacks a unifying ideology. “There is no such thing as Putinism. Russia is currently an opportunistic imperialist abroad and a kleptocracy based on free markets at home,” says Galeotti.

    Imperialism refers to a great power’s desire to expand its power at the expense of other states. This may involve the use of military means, as Russia has done in, for example, Ukraine, Georgia, and Syria. Kleptocracy, on the other hand, refers to rule by thieves, where corruption is institutionalized in the state. For Putin, history is a tool that he uses to justify his actions. According to Galeotti, the background to this is the broken social contract that still applied in Russia in the early 2000s.

    Professor Galeotti says that Russia lacks an ideological system that unites its citizens. According to the agreement, citizens would delegate politics to Putin’s administration, and in return, their well-being and quality of life would improve over the years. The message appealed to Russians, especially after the severe economic crisis in the 1990s. The social contract was broken at the latest when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Due to the war, inflation is soaring in Russia, and interest rates have reached new heights. Now, according to Galeotti, Putin is trying to replace the social contract with history. “History is a much less effective tool because the social contract was based on self-interest. Historiography is based much more on sacrifices and fate. During World War II, it was easier to accept sacrifices because the Russians feared that Nazi Germany would destroy their entire nation. The situation is different regarding the war in Ukraine. The fact that Russia recently raised VAT to balance its budget can also be seen as a sacrifice in terms of living standards. At the same time, the welfare fund, which was intended to finance citizens’ pensions, is on the verge of being depleted. A peculiarity in Putin’s interest in history has to do with his own role in writing history. When he meets historians, he asks them how they will talk about him in a hundred years. This is, of course, a difficult question when it comes to a despot who has ordered the poisoning of his political opponents.

    Russia puts pressure on Europe with drones In recent weeks, drones have been seen in several European countries, including near airports and military facilities. Russia is suspected of being behind the drone disruptions. According to Galeotti, we must be cautious in assuming that the Russians are behind all the drones that have been seen. At the same time, he says that the Russians have escalated their hybrid warfare in Europe. In addition to drone sightings, Russia has violated Estonia’s airspace with fighter jets, and its shadow fleet has caused several cable damages in the Baltic Sea. “This is partly because European countries are currently considering security guarantees for Ukraine.

    According to Professor Galeotti, it is no coincidence that Russia’s hybrid activities have increased in Europe at the same time as Western countries are considering security guarantees for Ukraine. Galeotti says that Russia is not currently desperate to reach a peace agreement, but Putin would like to get some kind of deal. Ukraine, on the other hand, has been clear in its message: the country will not negotiate with Russia until European countries offer clear security guarantees. In practice, Russia is trying to scare Europeans by acting much more ruthlessly and aggressively than Western countries. Russia is asking how deeply you want to engage in the war in Ukraine at a time when the USA is no longer a reliable security guarantor. Traditionally, Russia has used hybrid warfare to divide its allies in the West, as it cannot stand up to NATO on its own.

    It will take eight years to rebuild the Russian army

    Many experts and politicians have pondered the consequences of a potential peace agreement in Ukraine and whether Russia poses a greater threat to Europe than before. Galeotti’s answer to this question is straightforward. No, it does not. Russia will need to rebuild its armed forces after this war.

    According to Galeotti, Russia is not as big a threat to Europe as before the war in Ukraine. This is logical when looking at estimates of the number of Russian soldiers killed and wounded. Galeotti and other experts estimate that around a million soldiers have been killed or wounded in the war. A large part of these have been the best forces in the Russian army. Additionally, Ukraine has destroyed a large part of the equipment that Russia has built up over the past 20 years. Galeotti believes that the end of the war could also cause problems for Russia. After the war, many “angry and armed men” will return to society, and this will never be good for social peace. Some experts have estimated that the Russian army could be ready for a minor attack within a few months after the end of the war. According to Galeotti’s estimate, it will take about eight years to rebuild the army. “For Russia to be able to initiate any form of military operation, the country must have the capacity to wage a large-scale war. Otherwise, it cannot carry out its threats. One thing that could change the military situation in Ukraine is the mobilization of troops. Galeotti does not believe that there will be a new round of mobilization in Russia. “It should be remembered that during the first mobilization round, more people fled the country than enlisted. The likelihood of this unpopular decision is reduced by the fact that there will be elections to the Duma in Russia next year. Although the Duma in Russia has the role of serving as Putin’s stamp, Galeotti believes that the autocrat must to some extent be concerned about his popularity. However, a strong election result also legitimizes the exercise of power in authoritarian societies.

     

    Correction October 5, 2025 at 11:41: Changed the book’s title to its correct form. The text previously read Sodista taottu maa (A country shaped by war). The correct title of the book is Sodista taottu Venäjä (Russia shaped by war). The discussion on this topic ends on October 5, 2025 at 22:00.

    https://yle.fi/a/74-20185609

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