The war in Ukraine 2025-09-29

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Russian losses:

  • 1080 KWIA
  • 7 Tanks
  • 53 Artillery systems
  • 1 MLRS
  • 1 Anti-Aircraft system
  • 617 UAVs
  • 43 Cruise missiles
  • 111 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
  • 2 Special Equipment

SLAVA UKRAINI

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59 thoughts on “The war in Ukraine 2025-09-29”

  2. MXT

    It’s good that Russia didn’t succeed in taking over Moldova, PAS seems to be winning with just over 50% of the votes, but unfortunately it’s not over yet.

    “Despite the EU-friendly party PAS appearing to secure a majority in Moldova’s parliament after Sunday’s election, it could be difficult to form a functional government. This is according to Andrei Curararu, an analyst at the think tank Watchdog.md, speaking to AFP.

    The election has been surrounded by reports of Russian influence operations and vote rigging.

    – The Kremlin has invested too much in this operation to back down now, says Curararu.

    He believes that Russia may resort to pushing for protests or bribing PAS members of parliament to sabotage a pro-European government.

    Already on Sunday, the leader of the pro-Russian Patriotic Block, former president Igor Dodon, called for “peaceful protests” against the election results. He also stated that his party will not recognize the results and demands a new election.”
    https://omni.se/analytiker-kreml-kan-stora-regeringsbildningen/a/kw2z19

  6. 205

    A record low for the season (beginning of May) in the number of reported combat engagements with what appears to be the third lowest figure of the total front sections, 120.

    As usual, there is full pressure in Donetsk (Toretsk/Pokrovsk/Novopavlivka). Especially an unusually low figure from the Lyman front section drove the decrease. The southern front also showed reduced and low numbers.

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 7
    S Slobozhansky 5
    Kupyansk 3
    Lyman 5↘️
    Siverskyi 8
    Kramatorsk 2
    Toretsk 12💥
    Pokrovsk 53💥💥💥
    Novopavlivka 21💥
    Huliaypillia 2↘️
    Orikhivsk 0↘️
    Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 2

  7. 205

    https://x.com/anno1540/status/1972409125889019920?s=46

    1/✍️
    Witnessing a War Crime: Russia’s Human Safari

    For more than a year, Brendan Kelley has immersed himself in one of the darkest archives of modern warfare:
    – the systematic targeting of civilians in Kherson by Russian forces.

    Alongside his colleagues from the Ukraine Daily Update team who carry out similarly meticulous types of work into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Brendan’s research is unique. ..

    Day after day, he traces fragments of shattered human lives burnt into drone footage, an array of propaganda media, police records and official reports

    Read✍️
    https://tochnyi.info/2025/09/witnessing-a-war-crime-russias-human-safari/

    2/
    Kelley’s research goes beyond compiling statistics and has been chronicling the attacks from Kherson on his own Substack since the inception of his research.
    substack.com/@bkelley7622

    His work involves the methodical collection of casualty data from Ukrainian authorities.

    The result is a body of work which has been compiled and published for the first time by the team at Tochnyi on an illustrative, layered and interactive map.

    This map reveals not only what happened to these Ukrainian victims, but how.

    “The nature of these war crimes is unique,” Brendan explains.

    “They are documented from the perpetrator’s perspective – what each Russian drone pilot saw, what they chose to do and the pride with which they shared the results of their attacks.”

    3/
    The Birth of the ‘Human Safari’

    Records show the genesis of the campaign that would later become known as the ‘Human Safari’ began in Beryslav Raion, a quiet riverside community along the Dnipro.

    ”It was here, on 13 January 2024, that a then 54-year-old man was struck by a drone and was left fighting for his life.”

    This attack, it later transpired, was no isolated act. It was the beginning of a campaign that would soon expand to #Kherson city itself and beyond.

    Beryslav emerged as the location chosen by Russian drone pilots for a fell assay against the civilian population of Kherson.

    The Russians stalked Ukrainian civilians from the sky, pursuing them down streets and into vehicles before dropping explosives onto their human targets.

    They struck ambulances and firefighters, in deliberate acts targeting first responders.

    By February and March of that year, these drone strikes had become routine.

    By summer, drones had become the primary cause of civilian casualties across the region.

    4/
    Kherson’s so-called ‘Red Zone’ – an area never officially declared, but marked by Russian soldiers and military bloggers as a place where civilians were fair game – grew exponentially, until it encompassed nearly the entire city.

    What began in Beryslav became a blueprint for widespread urban killings, scaled up to terrorize thousands of innocent Ukrainian civilians.

    5/
    “The Legal Context”

    Pursuant to the Geneva Conventions of 1949 and their additional protocols of 1977, the deliberate targeting of civilians is illegal.

    In Kherson, these violations are not merely incidental, they are a defining feature of Russia’s invasion and occupation of Ukraine.

    The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by Russian forces in #Kherson has converted civilian thoroughfares into zones of lethal risk and subjected the civilian population to wholly discriminate targeting, in clear breach of international humanitarian law.

    The story of Kherson in 2024 is not one of the random destruction of a city unfortunate enough to have its location within an area of active conflict, but of a technological and doctrinal shift;
    – one that sees artillery barrages replaced by UAVs as a weapon of terror against civilian areas.

    It is one where civilians themselves, namely their maiming, death or displacement, are a mission objective.

    6/
    “Through the Lens of Russia’s War Criminals”

    The raw material for Brendan’s project is drawn from casualty reports published by Kherson ODA, Ukrainian National Police, the Kherson Prosecutor’s Office, and other local officials.

    Brendan also draws data from Russia’s own propaganda machine.

    Soldiers record their strikes, upload them to Telegram, and brag about their cruelty.

    In those moments, you see the decision-making process as they chase down civilians with drones or target rescue workers rushing to save the wounded.

    It is a window into the psychology of atrocity, one in which the Russians use their footage as an intentional display of pride.

    Kelley synthesizes this with data from the Ukraine Daily Update project, alongside police and prosecutor’s office records in Kherson.

    Kelley displays this data on Ukraine Daily Update’s map in icons displayed on the map via the “shellings” layer.

    – The result presented today is the first layered, interactive map showing Russia’s deliberate strikes on civilians, rescue workers and medical staff within Kherson.

    The map is illustrative and aimed at allowing the reader to access a visualization of the increased intensity of Russia’s attacks over time.

    Nevertheless, the actual number of attacks in the data in comparison to the visualization are underrepresented – so not even every reported casualty has its own pin.

    Nevertheless, each pin on the map represents not only an attack, but a human life forever changed.

    Mapping Russia’s Campaign of Terror:
    Next

    7/
    The methodology behind the project is applied by Brendan to his daily research into these crimes and are reflected on the map, which combines:

    • Demographic data on casualties, collected and organized from Kherson’s ODA, police, and other local authorities, with careful cross-referencing.

    • Weapon categories, distinguishing between drone-dropped grenades, first-person view (FPV) drones,  artillery bombardments and mines or unexploded ordnance (UXO).

    • An Interactive timeline, allowing researchers to see how tactics evolve, how Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian civilians intensify and how Russia’s methods adapt over time.

    What emerges from the data is not indiscriminate violence, but a pattern which reveals a calculated approach: a deliberate strategy to terrorize civilians, force evacuations, and erode trust in local governance.

    Click here to Explore the Human

    Safari map:
    maps.tochnyi.info/humansafari/

    8/
    “The Routines of a Researcher in the Context of Atrocity”

    Brendan’s regular work mirrors the relentlessness of the attacks themselves. Each week, he combs through police and regional reports, noting casualties, missing details, and discrepancies.

    He supplements gaps in ages, professions and locations by cross-checking with governor’s reports and local sources.

    His labours are exceeded by geolocators 99Dominik, blinzka, foosint and the other geolocation team at Ukraine Daily Update Map, who work tirelessly to breakdown Human Safari footage and locate each attack in order to create a visual archive of Russia’s terror.

    As such, Kelley documents not only the details of those involved in each attack, but the event’s context and the weapons systems used.

    His work creates a compendium of atrocities designed to withstand denial, distortion, or erasure.

    – Tochnyi’s map of Brendan’s work serves as a tool to aid prosecutors, journalists, historians, and anyone who one day seeks justice for these crimes

    9/9
    “Research Motivations”

    For Brendan Kelley, documenting these crimes is more than research – it is a resistance to injustice and a refusal to allow silence or uncertainty to cover what has happened in Kherson.

    The Tochnyi team’s interactive map depicting Brendan’s data does more than mark coordinates. It tells a story. Of a city under siege. Of a war crime unfolding in real time.

    And yet, as the casual observer will no doubt be aware, Brendan’s work, the work of the geolocators and Tochnyi’s map are not finished.

    Each day brings new reports, new coordinates, new evidence. Brendan continues his work not only with Kherson but with other regions across Ukraine, building a record that the perpetrators themselves will never be able to deny;
    – with their crimes recorded in their own words, within the posts on their own social media channels – and now illustrated with clarity on an interactive map.

    This work ensures that, when accountability for these war crimes arrives, those seeking justice will be armed with the data to render it

    —-
    As Brendan and the team of geolocators continue their work, which continues to increase in scale and demand, we are looking for volunteers who are motivated to contribute on a regular basis. Click the link if you want to volunteer

    https://tochnyi.info/join-andrew-perpetuas-project-help-document-the-war-in-ukraine/

  12. MXT

    “The government will present on Monday, at a press conference, a new civil support package for Ukraine of over 1.1 billion Swedish kronor.

    – Support to Ukraine is Sweden’s most important foreign policy priority, says Minister for International Development Cooperation and Foreign Trade Benjamin Dousa (M).

    The support package includes, among other things, 450 million kronor to meet Ukraine’s energy needs ahead of winter. 100 million kronor will also go towards demining, removal of war debris, and economic recovery in previously mined areas.”

    https://omni.se/nytt-civilt-stodpaket-till-ukraina-pa-over-en-miljard-kronor/a/935Q1l

    https://www.regeringen.se/pressmeddelanden/2025/09/regeringen-presenterar-nytt-civilt-stodpaket-till-ukraina/

    https://www.regeringen.se/pressmeddelanden/2025/09/presstraff-med-bistands–och-utrikeshandelsminister-29-september-om-nytt-civilt-stodpaket-till-ukraina/

  13. MXT

    “Russia for war against Great Britain. That is the conclusion drawn by Eliza Manningham-Buller, former head of the British security service MI5, in the podcast ‘Lord speaker’s corner’.

    – It is a different kind of war, but the hostility, cyber attacks, physical attacks, and intelligence work are extensive, she says.

    Among other things, Russia is assessed to have escalated cyber attacks against British targets, and Moscow is accused of ordering an arson attack last summer on a warehouse in East London that stored materials for Ukraine.”
    https://omni.se/tidigare-mi5-chef-vi-ar-redan-i-krig-med-ryssland/a/73bwXW

  18. MXT

    “Since Thursday evening, the Danish frigate Niels Juel has been stationed near the Great Belt Bridge, reports Danish BT citing the vessel tracking service Vesselfinder. The vessel appears to have been moving in circles.

    The ship set course from Greenland towards Denmark last Monday – the same day that Copenhagen Airport was closed for several hours due to drone alerts.

    The Danish defense refuses to comment on whether the vessel was deployed in response to drone activity in the country.”
    https://omni.se/danskt-stridsfartyg-ror-sig-runt-stora-balt-bron/a/Gy4mqm

    1. Proxima

      Denmark has not had any ground-based air defense for 20 years. In addition, they decommissioned the submarines. The Danes would focus, just like Sweden, on international missions. Therefore, they invested in 5 large frigates with strong air defense. “Niels Juel” is one of these. But they have major problems with the ships and it is too expensive to repair them. 2 or three will be converted into patrol vessels and new ones will be ordered. The sister ship “Iver Huitfeldt” had major problems in the Red Sea and had to return home to Korsør. The ships are not old, the first one arrived in 2004 and the fifth was delivered in 2013 if I remember correctly. That’s why Sweden and Germany are now supporting Denmark with radar and some air defense during the EU meeting. And “Niels Juel” can be seen near the Øresund Bridge.

  20. 205

    🇨🇺🇷🇺

        1. 205

          I believe Sweden and the EU, at least the former since ancient times, have support programs aimed at the country. If that is the case today, it may be time to review the support.

  21. Proxima

    Wrote the Öresund Bridge. It was supposed to be the Great Belt Bridge.
    Speaking of Danish frigates. Does anyone remember the incident with the harpoon missile on the Danish frigate “Peder Skram” in the Kattegat on the 6th of September 1982?
    It is considered the biggest scandal in the history of the Danish navy.
    In essence: “Peder Skram”
    Was out on a routine weapon test and a harpoon missile was accidentally fired towards, as it was said, “who knows where”. It could have hit Copenhagen or maybe Barsebäck. Luckily, it hit 4 summer houses in Zealand. The houses were empty, and no one was harmed.
    But there was a legal aftermath, and everyone pointed to the same man. Especially McDonnell Douglas, who manufactured the Harpoon. What they “forgot” to mention was that a similar incident had occurred on an American destroyer off Saint Croix, the West Indies.
    A Danish journalist began to unravel the story, and the accused was acquitted after two years of suffering.
    McDonnell Douglas footed the bill, and Denmark even got a new missile.
    Go to “Henning and Hovsta missile dk.” So you can read the whole story if you have the time and inclination. Danish, of course, but reading Danish usually works fine.

    an incident occurred on an American destroyer in the West Indies. A Danish journalist delved into the story, and the accused was acquitted after two years of suffering.
    McDonnell Douglas footed the bill, and Denmark even got a new missile.
    An interesting story that you can read by googling “Henning and Hovsta missile.dk.”

    4. jahojariaho

      Searched for some information! Writing (in Swedish)
      The error was not in the missile control itself but in the safety mechanisms surrounding the firing:

      Technical fault: The Harpoon system on Peder Skram had a deficiency in the electrical system. An electrical impulse occurred that initiated the entire firing sequence without the crew having ordered a shot.

      Safety deficiency: The system should have had several locks to prevent a missile from leaving the ramp during an exercise, but these were found to not function reliably enough.

      Human factor: Commander Henning Olsen followed procedures, but when the missile was still fired, he was singled out as responsible. Subsequent discussions have revolved around him practically becoming a scapegoat, as the error lay in the design.

      Consequence: After the accident, safety procedures were strengthened, and Denmark made demands against the manufacturer McDonnell Douglas.

  23. 205

    🇺🇸 🧨 🇨🇳
    FOX BUSINESS:
    Trump’s 100% tariffs will end China’s grip on the US senior counselor on trade says

    President Trump announced sweeping new tariffs to curb U.S. reliance on foreign supply chains, a move his trade adviser Peter Navarro said is aimed at breaking China’s grip and driving domestic investment in critical industries.

    DN:
    USA gears up for conflict with China – wants to double missile production

    1. MXT

      From 1st Oct., 100% tariffs will also apply to pharmaceuticals. 50% on kitchen and bathroom furnishings and 30% on heavy trucks. Those building factories in the USA are exempt, then it is unclear if it applies to the whole world or just those who do not yet have agreements such as the EU but Ikea has spoken out so it probably applies to everyone after all.

      It will be interesting to see where this ends. China has managed to increase its exports and is heavily investing in the rest of Asia and even Africa.

      I believe the chance is just as great that the USA will crash themselves as they will succeed in crashing China. The risk is that it will crash for everyone in the end.

      1. 205

        One must, in my opinion, see China as the terrorist state it is, supporting Russia in its prolonged terrorist attacks against the residents of Ukraine. There are Chinese components in missiles/drones and Chinese purchase of Russian raw materials financing Putin’s terrorist attacks on and invasion of Ukraine. In that case, neither 100, 200, nor 500% tariffs are too much. And the EU should do the same, towards China.

        Regarding the EU, it was reported the other day that Ursula von der Leyen negotiated 15% tariffs and free American exports to the EU. 

        1. MXT

          Agree, China has a lot on its conscience not only now when they are helping Russia. Ideally, we would stop doing business with them completely, but it becomes very difficult to find alternatives and unfortunately money also rules for most, both individuals but perhaps mostly for the big corporations.

          Just look at all those who still sell to Russia but through intermediaries.

      2. CB500four

        The risk is probably, as you write, that it backfires. The West has shot themselves in the foot in the pursuit of cheap products. The Chinese are smart and unscrupulous when it comes to copying and improving, so now they thank us by competing out our production and controlling the supply of critical raw materials.

        It has been too cheap to transport goods from China, and too few tariffs, we have not been able to protect ourselves enough. And if we are now going to try to move production back home, then we must be prepared that we will not be able to afford our current quality of life

  24. 205
    Gustav Olsson – DN
    Today 18:58

    Reports: Denmark calls up hundreds of reservists

    Following recent drone incidents, Denmark is now calling up reservists for service, reports TV2, which has seen the call-up. According to sources cited by the channel, hundreds of soldiers are being called up.

    The reports come two days before Denmark is set to host an EU summit. On Monday, Sweden announced that the Armed Forces will send anti-drone capabilities and lend radar systems for the meeting in Copenhagen.

    https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2025-09-29-droner-faar-forsvaret-til-at-hasteindkalde-soldater-fra-reserven

  25. johan No.1

    I have let go of Trump and the USA a bit, but the other day there was an article in DI that the economy in the USA is doing better than feared and the USD has recovered a bit.

    With emphasis on “a bit” for me, the depreciation of the currency hurts 😭

    We should definitely put pressure on China, the EU should also impose 100% tariffs on them because we are not dependent on them, they are dependent on us.

    The EU and the USA should make a fair trade agreement and buy from each other instead – ditch China, Russia, and the other rogue states.

    Now we are probably at the point where we have to choose, and then it’s time to choose to exclude Russia, China.

  26. CB500four

    What do you think about Trump’s peace plan that Netanyahu and Hamas have now approved? If it leads to a peace that actually holds, well, for a few years at least, then I’m probably willing to give Trump a +.

    We’ll have to see what it contains, but the hostages would be released, the IDF would withdraw, and Hamas would be disarmed. Sounds like a good start, as long as they can keep it up. Netanyahu would probably prefer to see the Palestinians in Gaza disappear, and is probably just waiting for a reason to continue, but it seems like Trump has convinced him somehow, probably with a threat to abandon Israel if they don’t agree to the deal, which would put Israel in a difficult situation.

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