The war in Ukraine 2025-09-30

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Russian losses:

970 KWIA

4 Tanks

1 AFV

27 Artillery systems

1 MLRS

1 Helicopter

301 UAVs

90 Vehicles & fuel tanks

SLAVA UKRAINI

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61 thoughts on “The war in Ukraine 2025-09-30”

  1. MXT
    AFU reports:
    • 176 combat clashes
    • 51 aviation strikes
    • 104 KAB
    • 4463 shellings (126 from MLRS)
    • 5531 kamikaze drones

    (Fewer drones than usual, the seven-day average is just under 6000)

  2. MXT

    “Ukrainian forces hit a Rosrezerv fuel depot in Bologoye, Tver region. A drone struck an aviation fuel tank at the FGKU “Lokomotiv” site, but the tank held. The area was quickly sealed off while emergency crews worked to cool the reservoirs.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lzzulluwls2p

    “💥 Russia: Ukrainian drone struck a Strategic State Reserve fuel depot located between Moscow and Saint Petersburg in Bologoye, Tver region. The drone struck a fuel tank but failed to ignite the fuel (or maybe the tank was empty?) Kremlin authorities hushed up the incident.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/igorsushko.bsky.social/post/3lzztsng2o22j

  8. MXT

    “The Russian ship Mikhail Dudin, which has previously been noted for transporting nuclear fuel, is currently anchored off the coast of Blekinge, reports Expressen. The Swedish navy has been to the ship and spoken with the crew.

    The ship has been stationary since the night towards Sunday. According to the Swedish navy, the ship has previously reported having engine problems.

    ‘They were moving uncontrollably and drifting north, then they anchored approximately at the position where they are now,’ says the navy’s press contact Jimmie Adamsson.”
    https://omni.se/ryskt-fartyg-ligger-for-ankar-utanfor-blekinge/a/qPGa1g

  9. 205

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 20💥↗️
    S Slobozhansky 4
    Kupyansk 3
    Lyman 16💥↗️
    Siverskyi 3↘️
    Kramatorsk 2
    Toretsk 14💥
    Pokrovsk 56💥💥💥
    Novopavlivka 37💥💥↗️
    Huliaypillia 6↗️
    Orikhivsk 3
    Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 4

    Increased activity along the front according to the latest daily report from AFU. At the same time, the lowest KWIA in a long time.

    Last 30 days. A look at the southern front and the central front section Orikhivsk (3). Seemingly modest advances on the margin. The number of reported battles in the front section was 62. 

     

  10. MXT

    I wrote yesterday that I think it will be difficult to do anything about China simply because everyone is too greedy.
    If we can’t even stop business with Russia, it will be even harder with China.

    As CB500four pointed out, we have probably already made ourselves too dependent, it will cost us. 
    Of course, that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try, and even if we don’t succeed all the way, it’s better than doing nothing at all. 

    “In Russia’s invasion war against Ukraine, drones have become one of the most important tools. In some drones, parts from the Swedish ball bearing giant SKF have been used, according to an investigation by Aftonbladet. An anonymous Ukrainian officer tells the newspaper how the components are often used in Russian drones that have landed or crashed on Ukrainian soil.

    In a video, he shows a Shahed 136 model drone that was shot down very close to Kyiv last summer. A Chinese-made bearing from SKF is removed from the engine. …”
    https://omni.se/officer-visar-rysk-dronare-med-kullager-fran-skf-i-motorn/a/1MmJ5B

    “Since Russia’s invasion in 2022, SKF has sold bearings to Russia to the tune of €50 million. Swedish ball bearing giant SKF and the Swedish state are continuing a tradition started already during WWII, exporting to murderous regimes.”
    https://x.com/auonsson/status/1972757880685359585

  11. MXT

    We probably have to wait a while longer (or maybe they want to keep it secret..).
    “There are no clear agreements that the Jas Gripen will be sent to Ukraine, according to the Ministry of Defense for SVT News:

    “There are ongoing discussions between Sweden and Ukraine since earlier regarding the export/sale of Gripen E (the new version of Gripen). But nothing is finalized yet,” writes Adam Schelin, deputy press secretary to Minister of Defense Pål Jonson (M).

    The statement comes after Ukraine’s deputy Minister of Defense hinted this morning that the aircraft will be part of a new aid package to Ukraine.”
    https://omni.se/pal-jonson-m-om-gripen-till-ukraina-inget-klart/a/vg02QX

    1. 205

      She has a lot on her to-do list. One way to go could be to stop trading with China and to get Swedish SKF on board. Then the Russians will soon have no drones. And the drone wall will become obsolete.

      1. MXT

        Yes, ensuring compliance with the sanctions should have been arranged from the beginning. Now it seems like there are hardly any proper controls taking place. The fact that the goods are being forwarded to Russia from the country we sold to doesn’t seem to concern anyone very much.

        Then, of course, one would like to exert significant pressure on China by strangling trade or threatening to do so, the question is whether it would work.

        Unfortunately, we are very dependent on China. It has already become more difficult with, for example, magnets and rare earth metals, and it has already affected the defense and automotive industries. China hasn’t even stopped the deliveries, just made it more difficult (through administrative requirements) and delayed them. We don’t have any real alternatives today that can meet the entire need, but efforts are being made within the EU, mostly to try to find other suppliers and help companies with the paperwork.
        Stopping it abruptly would cause huge problems for many industries.

        We would quickly need to make major investments in our own extraction and find other suppliers and partners (when it comes to the latter, Johan No.1 is on the right track regarding Africa, which has enormous resources, but even there, China is already involved and trying to gain control).

        There are other areas where we have become almost entirely dependent on China, such as electronic components, pharmaceuticals, and the components of pharmaceuticals, for example, and this also applies to the USA.

        There is a great risk that we will be the hardest hit ourselves if we press China too much.
        That’s probably why it hasn’t happened. Probably also because China doesn’t seem particularly worried about it either.

        Priority one should be to ensure that we have other solutions than buying from China (even if it becomes more expensive), then we can start negotiating seriously.

        But before we get there, we should certainly not let China off the hook, if we are clear that we do not accept what is happening, China will realize that even if we cannot do without them now, we will try to become independent.

        1. 205

          “when it comes to the latter, Johan No.1 is on the right track when it comes to Africa, which has enormous resources, but even there China is already involved and trying to gain control”

          Yes, that is a possible track. If Europe focuses on Africa and parts of Asia outside of China’s direct control such as India, the USA can focus on South America, where China also has some tentacles.

           

          That would be geopolitically smart. 

          1. MXT

            I have read about the initiation of several projects within the EU to review our dependency on China, I hope it won’t be delayed and that all possibilities and perspectives are considered. This applies to both which parts of the world we might collaborate with but also what we can do ourselves, and to see the benefit of being more independent.

            Even though our mining, for example, cannot compete with China in terms of metal prices, maybe it’s still worth it. Of course, environmental regulations and permits etc. come into the picture.

            When it comes to the latter, the environmentalists are thinking backwards. We preferably shouldn’t have mines, but it’s completely OK for China to have mines (probably with significantly worse environmental regulations) and then we should buy from them instead… Does not benefit the environment on a global level. Applies to Uranium mining, etc.

  14. MXT

    “A German man who has been an assistant in the EU Parliament is sentenced to nearly five years in prison for spying for China, reports several news agencies.

    The man worked as an assistant to Maximilian Krah, an EU parliamentarian for the German far-right party AFD. According to the German court, he has also collected information about the party and Europe at large on behalf of China.”
    https://omni.se/eu-assistent-spionerade-for-kina-doms-till-fangelse/a/zAv2P9

  15. MXT

    “Denmark has decided to raise the preparedness level within the energy sector to the orange level, the second highest, reports Danish media. This has not happened since the attack on the gas pipeline Nord Stream 2022.

    According to Minister of Energy and Climate Lars Aagaard, the increase is happening because there is a risk that the sector could be exposed to sabotage and hybrid attacks.

    – It is important for me to emphasize that this is not about a specific threat to the Danish energy supply. But based on an overall assessment of the threat picture, the preparedness level is raised, he tells Ritzau.”
    https://omni.se/hojd-beredskap-for-dansk-energisektor-orange-niva/a/93510p

  17. MXT

    “Russia sees another wave of high-profile purges, a new wave of arrests targeting senior officials and businessmen over the past week. On September 30, Major General of the Ministry of Emergency Situations Mikhail Nadyozhin, was detained.

    On September 29, Major General Valery Golota, head of the National Guard in North Ossetia–Alania, was arrested along with subordinates. On September 29, Oleg Chemezov, deputy governor of Sverdlovsk region, was also taken into custody.

    On September 25, Dmitry Rodionov, deputy governor of Vologda region and former Karelia official, was detained. On September 23, businessman and billionaire Alexey Bobrov, was arrested together with his associates.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3m22hg7f36s24

  18. MXT

    Off-Topic, weather/climate

    “The world’s largest cities have 25 percent more extremely hot days now than in the 1990s, according to an analysis by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) reported by The Guardian.

    Between 1994 and 2003, the number of days with a temperature above 35 degrees averaged 1,062 per year in the world’s 43 most populous capitals. During the period 2015 and 2024, the corresponding figure was 1,335.

    The increase is noted worldwide. For example, in Rome and Beijing, the number of extremely hot days doubled between the periods – in Manila, they became three times more.

    The researchers behind the study warn that the world’s governments have not acted sufficiently on climate change. …”

    https://omni.se/antalet-extremvarma-dagar-i-stora-stader-har-okat/a/Rzv00a

     

    Not exactly a massive increase, but it is a bit misleading to compare two slightly longer periods if you want to get a picture of where we are heading. However, it is just as crazy to only look at individual years. 

    Found the source and they have included the respective years. Quite large variations, but it is clear that we have an upward trend. It would be interesting to know how it looked even earlier.

    https://www.iied.org/worlds-major-cities-hit-quarter-more-hot-days-1990s

    AFRICA:

    When it comes to average temperature, it has risen a bit faster in Europe than globally, and you can almost sense it here too when it comes to days over 35 degrees. 

     

    1. MXT

      Today, almost the entire village is destroyed, only three people still live there. There are about 900 villagers who have moved to nearby areas, but now the Russian drones are starting to reach further so they may need to flee again.

      Nevertheless, they have started to think about the future, how they can rebuild the village.

      They are also trying to find a place where all villagers can gather to maintain their community while waiting to be able to move back home again.

  26. MXT

    Off-Topic, Afghanistan

    “When the internet is down in Afghanistan, many women’s hopes for education are also extinguished, reports the BBC. The Taliban regime has banned girls over 12 from going to school, severely limited women’s career opportunities, and recently purged books written by women from universities.

    Education through the internet has become a lifeline for many, but now that lifeline has also been cut off as part of the Taliban’s attempt to stop ‘immorality’ online. In recent weeks, internet access has been restricted in several areas, and since Monday, both the internet and mobile networks have been down nationwide. …”
    https://omni.se/kvinnors-sista-hopp-slacks-vi-vill-studera/a/o34Ovm

      1. CB500four

        Yes, well, the world didn’t think the USA should stay in Afghanistan, because American involvement abroad was not popular, especially after the debacle in Iraq. The USA should have gradually been replaced by an international force that would have supported the Afghan government until their democratic institutions and judiciary had become strong enough to stand on their own.

        During his first term, Trump already had difficulty with consequential thinking, and an inability to take good advice, and had convinced himself that the USA should not engage in military adventures abroad. Afghanistan was the Afghans’ problem, US troops were going home, and quickly. Now he was lucky, the troops came home during Biden’s term, so now he can blame everything on him.

        For the Taliban to say that they would respect women’s rights means nothing, their ideology has not changed since the last time they were in power. They will continue to dismantle women’s rights until they are back between the stove and the bed, and free to be whipped for arbitrary offenses. It won’t be long until we see public executions again.

        Afghanistan is going back to the Middle Ages, and the women, who could have brought Afghanistan into the light, and given Afghanistan international respect, will suffer because the world has abandoned them, once again, and left them in the hands of these bitter power-hungry men.

  27. MXT

    Off-Topic, Israel and Palestine

    Israel agreed to the conditions and now it sounds like HAMAS might also agree to them.

    I am surprised that Israel agreed to it, on the other hand, they have no allies, more and more countries are protesting and recognizing Palestine as a state and talking about boycotting trade. They realize that they probably can’t afford to lose even the USA so it might have been enough for Trump to threaten to reduce support for them to make them reconsider.

    If Trump succeeds in achieving a sensible and lasting peace in Gaza, one must actually give him credit for it. (Realize how deep it is for me to write that! 😄)

    “It seems that Hamas is leaning towards accepting Donald Trump’s plan to end the war in Gaza, according to a source close to the negotiations for CBS News. According to the information, the terrorist group may present its response to the mediators on Wednesday.

    The plan includes 20 points that would involve a rapid ceasefire in Gaza and the release of all Israeli hostages. Hamas has not yet officially commented on the proposal. A source close to Hamas told Reuters that the plan, which has also been approved by Israel, contains “impossible conditions.”

    Several Arab countries and leaders in Europe have expressed positive views on Trump’s efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza. The mediating state Qatar states that negotiations are ongoing on Tuesday.”
    https://omni.se/kalla-hamas-ser-ut-att-ge-gront-ljus-for-trumps-plan/a/73bzV8

    2. CB500four

      Oh no, now I didn’t see the YouTube video, but didn’t he look a bit tired, the bitter vengeful old man.

      If you don’t believe in his lies, you will be canceled, you are not entitled to your own opinion, freedom of speech only applies to those who think like Trump. The National Guard, and even the military, are sent to cities he perceives as disobedient. The enemy is all non-conformists and independent media. Anyone who writes negatively about Trump online is spreading hate speech. It is Trump and his regime who are the victims…

      Do the ideas and rhetoric sound familiar, yes, from both present-day Russia, and 1930s Germany.

      Now I can agree that, if he achieves peace in the Middle East, that’s good, and that he seems to have turned the situation in Ukraine is good, two plus points there. But I am very afraid of what is happening in the USA. As I wrote earlier, it’s lucky he’s old, otherwise we could have gotten a Stalin with nuclear weapons.

    1. MXT

      “Massive Russian attack on Dnipro. There are fires in the city. Reportedly, there are casualties.”
      https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3m22opojels2l

      “The latest video shows the roof of another building on fire. At least 5 people can be seen with injuries after the attack on the city. Some with what looks like ‘only’ lacerations, but one man has been badly wounded.”
      https://bsky.app/profile/twmcltd.bsky.social/post/3m22owuycnc2j

  33. johan No.1

    That the USA has changed its mind is clear, now Vance wants to see Tomahawks in Ukraine as soon as possible.

    It’s good that the USA has changed its mind, it’s bad that it took so long and Trump has caused a lot of damage.

    Tomorrow I will try to catch up with the fronts, doesn’t look very good.

  34. johan No.1

    I don’t remember now who I was discussing U137 with, but I just want to highlight that I have

    “one of Sweden’s foremost experts on security policy, intelligence operations, and submarine operations.”

    On the line with me that U137 did not navigate incorrectly.

    He has written many books and is frequently quoted in the media.

    You have to stick to the post.

  35. johan No.1

    If the USA manages to broker peace in the MENA region, they probably have a nice credit line to thank for it.

    And if peace were to happen, it would be the first time since 1948, but maybe we should give it a couple of years?

    1. Proxima

      Combat Boat 90 is an impressive boat despite its small size, especially at full speed. Have seen the occasional one every now and then. But at 6 pm today, 10 of them came. Had the sun in my eyes but I think I counted correctly. Very impressive. Wasn’t planning on writing about this since the situation is as it is, but the defense forces have announced that they are conducting exercises between Falsterbo and Gothenburg, and I saw them somewhere along the Halland coast.

  36. 205

    Once he talked at length about battleships, the type of warship that was built up until the 1940s.

    “We should build them again,” said Trump, followed by laughter from the generals. But then the president emphasized that he was serious.

    “I don’t like some of the ships you’re buying, they don’t appeal to me aesthetically,” he explained.

    Battleships, on the other hand, are beautiful, said Trump. And they are built of steel, not aluminum, “which melts at the mere sight of a missile.”

    And speaking of missiles, battleships are also better because “bullets are cheaper than missiles.”

      1. CB500four

        No, definitely not. He tests them to see if they resign.

        It will be interesting to see how many resign after the attack. Hegseth has something against overweight officers, so those with a high BMI will probably go. And anyone who laughs or doesn’t laugh at the wrong time, and then he’ll probably pull a Stalin on the rest, noting who stops applauding first, and firing all the Democrats, and all those who received their education and title when the Democrats held the presidency.

  38. johan No.1

    I see that people are starting to sober up regarding Africa.

    I have an investment tip – the mining companies that get contracts in Angola will do well.

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