The war in Ukraine + Statistics on Russian losses up to June

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Once again, Russia attacked Ukraine during the night. Reports indicate a total of 550 drones and robots, of which Ukraine managed to shoot down 478. More information on the results of the attacks will be provided in the comments below.
Further down, you will also find an overview of Russian losses from February 2022 until the end of June, where some positive trends can be discerned as it may be interpreted that Russia is no longer able to supply the fronts with equipment.

Russian losses:

  • 1120 KWIA
  • 2 Tanks
  • 10 AFVS
  • 50 Artillery systems
  • 1 MLRS
  • 205 UAVs
  • 112 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
  • 3 Special equipment
Russian losses in Ukraine - 2025-07-04

Overview of Russian losses per month

We are now in July, and to get a sense of how losses have evolved over time and what the trend looks like, I will go through some of the different types of losses.
As always, a big thank you to Ragnar Gudmundsson, follow him on Bluesky where he updates with new figures every day: https://bsky.app/profile/ragnarbjartur.bsky.social

KWIA

When it comes to dead and wounded Russian soldiers, December 2024 was the highest month ever (49,150), closely followed by January 2025. Since then, it has decreased, and in June, it was 32,680. It shows a downward trend, but June still ranks among the higher months in the entire war.
The average per day is 1089 in July.
The average since this phase of the war started on 2022-02-24 is 836/day.

As mentioned, there has been a downward trend since January with a slight peak in March, but as you can see in the image below, we have had reduced losses before, only to increase again. It is possible that December/January was the peak and that we will not see those levels on a monthly basis again. But of course, it’s only speculation.

Equipment

Overall losses of Russian ground-based hardware do not follow the same pattern. Instead, there was a slight dip in December and the peak came in April. Since then, it has decreased.

Tanks

When it comes to tanks, there has been a slow downward trend since the record month of October 2023 when they lost 520 tanks. In June, we were down to 113 tanks, the third lowest month since the war began. In April 2023, it was 84, and the following month 108. The decline then was probably not due to a lack of tanks but rather a pause after the Russians finally took Bakhmut and at the same time awaited the Ukrainian offensive.
One can speculate on why tank losses are decreasing. Have they run out? Are they saving them? Is it perhaps wasteful, as they are quickly taken out by drones, etc.? Here is a post where I discuss it a bit: Is Russia Running Out of Tanks?

Regardless, it can be noted that tanks are a resource that the Russians do not exploit in the same way as before. The average loss per day in June is 3.77. Perhaps that is now the limit of what they can produce. After all, it’s about 1400 per year.

APVs

When it comes to other combat and armored vehicles, it does not quite follow the tanks’ pattern. Just like with tanks, losses increased significantly in October 2023 when the Russians started their offensive, but the peak came a year later, in October 2024. Since then, the decline has been steep.
Just like with tanks, June was the third lowest month so far with 270 vehicles and an average of 9 per day.
It is very likely that the Russians have reached the limit here too in terms of what they can produce. The stocks are not endless, and 9 per day amounts to almost 3,300 per year.

Artillery

When it comes to artillery, the situation is a bit different. There was a remarkable decline in December 2024 and then a sharp recovery. There could be many reasons for this; the Russians attacked heavily with significant manpower losses, perhaps they did not use as much artillery, maybe Ukraine’s ability to neutralize it was lower at that time, or maybe Russia’s supplies were running low but later received help from North Korea (and possibly China, among others).
Currently, we are in a downward trend; we will see if it continues.
In June, the Russians lost 1,243 pieces, while the peak in December was 1,690.
One problem with artillery is that we do not know exactly what is included. Considering that they have lost a total of 29,447, I assume that mortars are included in the reports.

MLRS

MLRS has always been relatively low and fluctuated significantly. July 2023 is the record month so far with 69 pieces, closely followed by November of the same year.
In June, we had 27, slightly below the average.
When there are so few, it is difficult to assess any trends; it could just as well be coincidences. At the same time, we have not reached the same levels as in 2023. It may also be the case that Russia has reached the limit of what they can deliver to the front.

Vehicles and Fuel Tanks

This is a category of equipment that has had an upward trend since February 2023 (of course with occasional dips).
I suspect that one of the reasons for the increase is that the Russians have switched to smaller but more vehicles as their stocks have dwindled. We saw Chinese golf carts that seem to have been replaced by motorcycles, etc.
April of this year is the record month with 4,018 pieces, and in June, we had 3,395.
Now it’s only two months, but the decline from April to June is actually the largest decline so far.

Special Equipment

This is also a category where losses are low, like for MLRS. However, the trend since June-October 2024 is clear. One of the steepest declines, even though there was a peak in April this year. The record in June 2024 was 284, while in June we had 19, the lowest since December 2022.

Number of Engagements

The number of clashes at the front is interesting as it should reflect the intensity of the war. At an overarching level, it fairly closely follows the Russian losses of manpower. There are some differences between them, but in both cases, December 2024 is the record month, and both had a sharp dip in February.
The difference is that when it comes to the number of engagements, it has increased slightly more after the low point than the number of killed and wounded soldiers.
This could mean that they are now attacking with fewer soldiers, but it could also indicate that Ukraine is finding it harder to eliminate them.

There are some interesting “micro-trends” that I won’t delve into here, but user 205 has noted that KWIA has been significantly higher than the number of engagements in some places. This could indicate that Ukraine has carried out a local offensive.

It’s a bit unclear, but here I have combined KWIA and combat engagements in the same image (from March 2023).
Orange represents KWIA. It can be seen that they have largely followed each other, but also that the difference we see now is higher than ever.
If we draw conclusions from reduced losses of tanks and other armored vehicles that they are using fewer of them now, it could partly explain the difference. Each vehicle contains a crew and possibly additional soldiers, and if they are not used as frequently anymore, it could account for some of the decrease. It’s not as easy to eliminate as many soldiers with just one or two drones anymore.
But that’s hardly the whole truth; the difference is too significant. It’s more likely that they are using smaller groups today and that Ukraine chooses to retreat instead of taking their own losses. This would align with Russia slowly but steadily gaining ground.

Apologies for the very late post today!

SLAVA UKRAINI!

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67 thoughts on “The war in Ukraine + Statistics on Russian losses up to June”

  1. MXT
    AFU: “A total of 148 combat clashes were recorded during the past day.
    Yesterday, the enemy launched two missiles and 67 aviation strikes at the positions of Ukrainian units and settlements, using two missiles and 109 controlled bombs. In addition, carried out 6527 shells, of which 119 were from jet fire systems, and deployed 3,786 kamikaze drones to impress.”
  2. MXT

    The Russian attacks last night were once again among the most extensive during the war. When will Europe realize that this must come to an end and take serious action?

    “Night of terror in Kyiv. Russia launched over 550 drones and missiles across Ukraine. Explosions rocked the capital for hours, injuring 23, sparking fires, and polluting the air. Just before the strike, Trump and Putin held a long call. Kyiv wakes under smoke and shattered glass.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/euromaidanpress.bsky.social/post/3lt4rcvqrup2l

    “Kyiv after the night attack…”
    https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lt4ppj3jxs2i

    “More scenes from Kyiv this morning after Russians inflicted the largest attack on the war on Ukraine’s capital.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/jayinkyiv.bsky.social/post/3lt4wcfvxt22r

    “Mr President, your policy towards Russia is not working. While we negotiate, Putin bombs Ukrainian cities. Here is Kyiv today. It is time to change strategy. We and our allies must arm Ukraine to the teeth & we need the toughest sanctions. Putin is mocking you and America,” – Rep. Don Bacon”
    https://bsky.app/profile/meanwhileua.bsky.social/post/3lt4t7hqfo72x

     

  6. 205

    Thank you for compiling the losses. Interesting how KWIA is following the attacks but that the margin between them has increased in the last period at the expense of KWIA. Coincides with decreased use of perhaps mainly APV and increased use of lighter vehicles which as you are aware reflects smaller attack groups but more attacks. DeepState recently wrote an analysis on their blog pointing out that this is the current situation:

    📋 The enemy’s advances are due to personnel problems, which are critical for both sides at the moment. But the Russians obviously still have reserves of personnel. The decline in mechanised attacks is further confirmation of the enemy’s problems with equipment, which they are trying to replace with motorcycles and buggies. And enemy assaults by forces of 1 or 3 infantrymen are no longer a rarity. At the same time, the number of these groups remains significant.

    Read more in my post the other day where a link to the Telegram post is available:

    https://johanno1.se/sv/kriget-i-ukraina-2025-07-01/#comment-35216

    1. MXT

      Thank you! Interesting! 👍

      I usually forget to check yesterday’s post in the morning, here it is obvious that I have missed several interesting comments from you!

  10. 205

    The diagram below now contains all front segments, starting from 1/5 2026, up to today’s figures. Another data Surplus+ is the difference between the sum of the segments and today’s total. These often differ, but always by a margin.

    Example from today:
    Sum sectors: 16+10+4+19+4+1+7+54+13+1+1+3=133 
    Reported total: 148
    Surplus+: 148-133=15 

    I suspect that this may be battles where 🇺🇦AFU themselves are attacking. Or is it negligence in reporting?

    N Slobozhansky-Kursk 16💥

    S Slobozhansky 10💥↘️
    Kupyansk 4↘️

    Lyman 19💥
    Siverskyi 4
    Kramatorsk 1↘️
    Toretsk 7

    Pokrovsk 54💥💥💥

    Novopavlivka 13💥↘️
    Huliaypillia 1
    Orikhivsk 1
    Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 3
    Surplus+ 15💥↘️

    1. MXT

      👍 Interesting that there is a difference.

      Maybe it’s as simple as the difference depending on reporting at slightly different times and not doing all the compilations simultaneously? Or maybe it’s just a little sloppy, it wasn’t such a big difference if it was only 15. Is it more normal for it to be more?

      1. 205

        Surplus in red in the charts. I have often been bothered by the difference, but looking at the charts, it looks continuous. For example, if you take the reporting from the southern command, it matches well with the general staff’s report. And it is published almost simultaneously. So the source is intact. Could it be KWIA outside the regular twelve sectors that are not included in the sector reports, but go directly to the general staff from another direction?

        1. MXT

          That might very well be the case, that perhaps not everything is included in the sectors and that things happen outside of the twelve that are reported. 

  11. MXT

    “During a Russian strike on Odesa, the Chinese consulate building was damaged. Ukrainian official Andrii Sybiha also shared images of Shahed drone debris found after the Kyiv attack, showing components of Chinese origin.”

  12. MXT

    As long as we in Europe do not take a tough stance, Russia will continue (there is no point in relying on the USA).

    “Russia’s goals in Ukraine are currently not achievable through diplomatic means, even though it would have been ‘preferable’. This is according to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, as reported by AFP.

    – As long as it is not possible, we will continue the military special operation, he says.

    “Military special operation” has been the official Russian term for the country’s offensive war in Ukraine since the full-scale invasion.”

      2. CB500four

        Well, it has been quite clear from the beginning that Russia does not have an exit strategy.

        The only way is to defeat them militarily, and pick off the leaders one by one.

        As long as bomb throwers remain, they will drop bombs, so they must be removed, missile ships must be removed, the air defense should be decimated (if it even exists anymore) so we can bunker bomb inside Russia. Shahed factories must go. Etc, etc.

        Trump will not approve anything that means his dear Putin suffers, so we have to do this without the USA. With a little luck, there is someone sensible left in the USA who can prevent Trump from declaring war on Europe.

  13. MXT

    Sweden-Turkey

    “Swedish police contributed to the arrest of gang leader Ismail Abdo in Turkey on Friday, the Police stated in a press release.

    – The arrest is a result of targeted work over time between the Turkish and Swedish judicial systems, says Mats Berggren, acting deputy chief at Noa.

    According to Expressen, a total of 19 people were detained during the operation, where information from Sweden is described as “crucial for the arrest”.”
    https://omni.se/sveriges-insats-avgorande-for-gryningsrad-mot-abdo/a/4BaPwR

    2. Westley Richard

      “According to Turkish media, the authorities have seized the suspects’ bank accounts and shareholdings – as well as 51 properties and 20 vehicles with a total value of approximately 360 million Swedish kronor.”

  14. MXT

    Slovakia
    Slovakia is becoming increasingly undemocratic.

    “Slovakia’s nationalist president Robert Fico has tightened his grip on what he sees as “hostile media” in the country since returning to power in 2023, writes AFP. Now, there are growing warnings that press freedom in the country is under threat.

    In two years, the country has dropped 21 places on Reporters Without Borders’ press freedom index.”
    https://omni.se/oro-nar-slovakiens-styre-skarper-greppet-om-medier/a/0Va1V0

    2. CB500four

      What’s wrong with people.

      Right-wing populists thrive when things aren’t going well, we have a bit of the same here in the Nordic countries too, with Sweden Democrats and True Finns, but they fall out after a while when their promises cannot be fulfilled.

      They often get votes from those who feel they have not been able to achieve the goals they set for themselves, but refuse to see that the problem lies within themselves. They are then attracted to the message that all problems are due to any chosen external enemy, media, EU, immigrants, gays, lesbians, women, highly educated, electric car owners, etc.

      So, largely men with too much Ego, who hope that a man resembling them will help them regain the power they feel they deserve.

  15. MXT

    Sweden
    “The County Administrative Board wants to save the grain silo in Frihamnen in Stockholm from demolition, reports TV4 News. The building is said to be valuable for preparedness reasons, as it could secure the capital’s food supply if war were to break out.

    The silo is located on municipal land but is owned by Lantmännen, whose lease agreement with the City of Stockholm expires in two years. Both parties agree to demolish the silo, but have faced criticism from the opposition in the municipality.”
    https://omni.se/silon-kan-forsorja-stockholm-i-16-dagar-ska-rivas/a/PpQbJ5

      2. MXT

        Depends, maybe it’s not the first target they prioritize (it’s not a hospital or school) and if there’s a war, they might be smart and start distributing it to other places.

  17. johan No.1

    Actually quite significant that RU has managed to increase the pace of offensive operations from the fall of 2023 until a few months ago. I absolutely did not think they would be able to do that, my guess was that they would manage a low-intensity war over time but they have been able to absorb a high-intensity war over time which has also gone really badly for them.

    Yes, every time it has been close, the USA has come to the rescue and Europe has remained silent when we should have amplified it tenfold instead, so that has of course played a role as well.

    Decreases in heavy vehicles probably have to do with changed tactics/doctrine – they send sacrificial anodes forward to identify UA firing positions, put FAB in them, deploy a blanket of drones, and then they start moving forward with competent shooting. It has been surprisingly effective.

    The backbone of the artillery is broken but is being supported by former Iran, now NK, and also China.

    I am a bit surprised that neither seems to be going all out this summer – I did not think RU had the capacity last winter for a summer offensive but that they went all in on January 20 which was wrong but they have not impressed directly in April – June which is the time when the ground starts to become favorable for offensive operations.

    We are now in July – October where it is still possible to carry out offensive operations so it is not over yet, of course.

    UA has offensive capacity and has stated that they want to carry out offensive operations again without details but not much is happening – has Trump’s delaying tactics worked against them too much?

    Because Trump has thrown so many handfuls of gravel into UA’s engine that they have barely coped with, he even tried to politically bring down Zelensky but fortunately failed. He is so preoccupied that things like this disappear in the noise but he invested quite a bit in politically clipping Zelensky’s wings for a while.

    But all is forgiven because Victory Perfume is too good, you smell like a real winner 👍

    Azerbaijan and Armenia are of high interest – will come back to that and UA is guaranteed in communication with them, I can promise you that 😍

    The only way for UA to come out of this as a winner is asymmetric warfare which Trump has prevented since late autumn and Europe is likely not on board with that train either.

    In fact, in Europe, we are falling for Putin’s threat that a collapsed Russia would become warlords with nuclear weapons, when that did not happen last time…

    A small positive for Europe could be that if Azerbaijan and Armenia become threatening, several divisions will be needed at least and then RU’s offensive reserves will come into play – if we read about troop movements there, then the Baltics are probably saved 😀

    But we have not read about that yet…

    Kazakhstan is the next player – a large country both in terms of area and population.

    Georgia will go the same way as Armenia and Azerbaijan, whatever that may be in the end.

    What is most exciting about this is that it does not involve Trump or Europe at all – Turkey and China are completely driving this on their own and with a bit of luck, they will align with UA.

    At least Turkey has made a noticeable change in course, as we have all been able to see.

    China has not done so, but they would welcome – places that were China-friendly for land transport westward and if that happens to coincide with Ukraine’s interests, it would benefit UA.

    Turkey probably also sees a global advantage in this – being able to position itself for the future.

    Not sure what this means for Armenia, but if all three countries come out of this as free nations with good relations with China and Turkey, that would be good for them, right?

    Even better would be if they oriented themselves towards the West, but you can’t force countries in any case, or can you 🧐

    In any case, this seems to be another step up in global escalation because Russia has done what they could in Armenia and Azerbaijan’s Turkey game but failed.

    Just as they failed when the Baltics cut the power cables to Russia despite their attempts.

    The nights are pleasant down here, 17-18 degrees so a little open windows in the evening and a fan works perfectly. It has been just below 30 degrees here and yesterday we were out and about all day so we were a bit tired but we did not die at least, as the media suggested we would.

    We will leave next week to return to work but will keep an eye on the temperature and will come back with a post about the area that clearly has the world’s best climate even during heatwaves like in Matador 😀

    If you buy vacation homes from Raols Business-Deals.com, I get 10% 👍

  18. MXT

    He has probably received orders from Trump to do whatever he can to undermine Ukraine.

    “🇺🇸Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth halted arms shipments to 🇺🇦Ukraine despite analysis showing aid would not threaten U.S. military readiness – NBC News This is the third time Hegseth has unilaterally halted aid to Ukraine. Previous decisions in February and May were reversed within days.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lt56bmzgxk2a

    2. 205

      Nuremberg 1945. A crack straight through Europe, the healing process begun. Today, German, English, French, Italian, and Polish combat vehicles stand side by side near the front lines in eastern, northern, and southern Ukraine. Europe’s flank against the Huns. No, the American Abraham tanks haven’t really arrived either. But Europe has healed, despite the occasional Hungarian bend. Together we sit, including the Nordic countries and the Baltic states, and together with Ukraine we have the potential to quickly and decisively end the war against Russia. Ukraine is already an integrated part of Europe and we do not need a European Pearl Harbor. We are under attack, and we cannot just stand there and glance over our shoulder when the US is about to turn on the sirens and intervene to defend Ukraine against the perfidious Moscow apparatus imperial ambitions. Then we will just continue to stand there as Russia moves forward to the next country, this time a NATO member. No difference. Same behavior. Same result.

      3. CB500four

        Well written, and no, we should not need a European Pearl Harbor.

        The leaders probably know that Russia only respects strength, but they still believe that it can somehow be possible to negotiate peace. They are of course afraid of the fact that once they commit with force, then it cannot be stopped halfway, there is no room for backing down, no showing the slightest sign of weakness, because it gives strength to the Russian.

        When European aircraft are in the air. European caterpillars rolling, and boots marching eastward, it cannot be stopped until Ukraine is free, and the Russian leaders are out of the picture, everything else is just a pause.

        A quote from Terminator that also fits the Russian.

        “That Terminator is out there! It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop… ever, until you are dead!”

  25. Westley Richard

    Russian reconnaissance forces briefly entered Dachne, but were eliminated shortly afterwards. Videos circulating on pro-Russian Telegram channels showed Moscow’s troops supposedly occupying dugouts in Dachne and raising a Russian flag. “Reports of Russian propaganda about securing a bridgehead in the Dnipropetrovsk region do not correspond to reality. The enemy managed to snap a photo with a Russian tricolor, but that was their last activity. Ukrainian soldiers destroyed them.”

    http://www.thelowdownblog.com/2025/07/they-took-selfie-and-died-russias.html

    One should be careful about what they share online.

  26. MXT

    The Ukrainian nuclear power plant Zaporizhzhia is without power after a Russian attack, the country’s Minister of Energy Herman Halushchenko said in a statement. A power line connecting the nuclear power plant to the grid has been destroyed, he wrote on Telegram.

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