Trying to find time to write about this even though it might be a bit brief due to chaos and too much going on.
Now Macron seems to have woken up and announces that when the ceasefire day comes, European troops will be present in Ukraine – that’s good.
What’s not good is that it’s in Odessa and Kiev, very far from the frontlines, so it’s not really peacekeeping.
But Putin cannot accept this – our troops in Ukraine are his real red line.
Merz has also expressed himself relatively strongly in words in recent days.
USA is signaling that Zelensky has basically already accepted their peace plan, which is essentially Putin’s wish list. It’s hard to know what is true or not, there are rumors that UA is accepting 19 out of the points.
Then Europe will pronounce the winged words “Ukraine wants it so we have no choice but to support the proposal.”
Unfortunately, all arrows point in one direction here – ceasefire.
The situation at the frontlines is not good as usual, but UA is solving the acute issues with the strategic offensive reserve.
A glimmer of hope is that they have resolved the crisis in Kupiansk, which also signals that they have an ambition level beyond just constantly retreating.
Lyman also seems to have stabilized and at least in Kupiansk, an SSO regiment has fought.
Huliaipole
Siversk
In Pokrovsk, there are scattered skirmishes, but it seems like UA once again swept over the area with elite forces and cleaned up – once is an incident, but twice is established tactical adaptation, right?
In Stepnohirsk, RU is advancing
But towards Kinburn Spit, some OSINT analysts say that Ukraine is making life difficult for RU.
It’s quite clear that the army is strained and beyond the offensive strategic reserve they are relying on now, the condition is not great, and I estimated around +60,000 in the strategic reserve.
UA offensive as rumored?
Just as RU has now positioned itself with Trump’s help, an offensive wouldn’t provide political support.
So – for all those who thought Europe should stay low, what do you think of Macron’s move to be typically French and not stay low at all?
Or that Russia is on the verge of collapse as everyone claims – wouldn’t it be the absolute best for Europe to increase the pressure so that Russia actually collapses?
I think many engage in wishful thinking and try to justify doing nothing while the situation at the frontlines is as it is – Ukrainian soldiers who have been fighting for four years are being hunted by drones and they are expected to continue running around and avoiding death all by themselves without knowing how long or what the goal is, the objective is at best vague.
I now put my hope in Macron, by not keeping a low profile at all, managed to sabotage the entire GRU’s peace plan attempt.
Because if Europe insists on European troops in Ukraine upon a ceasefire, the ball is back in Putin’s court and he must try to wriggle out of this.
But it doesn’t solve anything other than temporarily avoiding our 1938, but the fundamental problem remains.
Russia has, through China’s help, a digital battlefield, drone weapons, and indirect capabilities that make Ukraine’s defensive warfare overwhelming.
Now Ukraine has solved this through “hit-and-runs” with their most valuable offensive strategic reserve and the situation is under control.
Then the “development clock” for drone weapons will soon move a quarter turn and Ukraine has autonomous cheap AI interceptor drones under development that might neutralize the drone weapon at the frontlines and absolutely long-range drones.
China is not far behind, probably ahead in the same capability.
Then I start to quietly wonder how long Europe will sit still and do nothing?
Is there an expiration date?
According to far too many, that seems to be a strategy we should stick to.
I can imagine that a few blown-up Christmas markets, Ukraine throwing in the towel, and an acute financial crisis for us would be difficult to handle – all three, Russia is working on delivering even on weekends.
The EU seems to slowly be moving towards worse relations with China, but at a snail’s pace – can’t we get a bit of good old Sinophobia and burnt Chinese buffets before Christmas at least?
Well, as long as Ukraine can hold out, everything is manageable, and as long as we don’t have a ceasefire, we have avoided the sprightly man with a mustache waving a signed paper.
Good move by Macron to introduce European troops in Ukraine as a necessity – Putin can’t really oppose that with the argument that it will complicate things for them when they break the agreement in six months.
It will probably be lively in France this Christmas now that Macron had the audacity to speak on the matter – a bit of burning churches and blown-up Christmas markets interspersed with bacon in Qurans in front of some mosques, and it’s business as usual.
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