Zelensky’s anti-corruption law fiasco showed that the fuse is quite short in Ukraine, he was probably right that the organizations were completely infiltrated, but it could also be that he wanted to protect someone – the bitter part is that no one will know what is true because GRU and FSB have jumped on the bandwagon.
Efforts were made to reach them, but they were lagging behind in GRU’s influence operation.
Someone (me) is constantly pointing out that the longer time goes on in Ukraine, the higher the risk that the balloon will start to deflate, and here was a moment that could have gone much worse, but Zelensky was quick with the fire extinguisher.
Did you read about Yermak?
Right now there is a lot going on, and it is our credible publications that are pushing out the texts in the West – sad.
Europe has a slack line to balance here, but don’t make the mistake of increasing the pressure on Zelensky, that’s my tip, the country is in an existential war.
Then Sirsky said that they want permission to target objectives in Russia, so now the suspicion was confirmed that we have slowed down UA (again..) 😐
I will pursue this because no one is reacting to the fact that in 2025 Europe and the USA are preventing Ukraine from hitting Russia where it hurts – as I have guessed before, but I am no less upset about it 😡
(those of you who said that Ukraine had not been stopped by the West this year, and there were a few of you – you were wrong again).
When Ukraine had drone superiority, we wrote that it was temporary (whack-a-moles that constantly move), that China would start to increase by 2025, and that “in the summer of 2025, Chinese tanks will begin to be delivered” – or something like that. Now we have seen one of the production lines of Geran, presumably many in Russia, because Russia wanted to scare Europe.
Europe (now I will start excluding the USA from this because Trump and the USA have a completely separate agenda, and at some point Europe must take responsibility in this?) has severely underestimated Russia’s rebuilding capability.
In 2023 and also during 2024, the new production of equipment was low and largely made up of existing vehicles. It could be reasonably assumed that what Russia managed to add was a drop in the bucket, and that existing equipment was starting to run out little by little.
You remember my enthusiastic posts.
All open-source intelligence analysts who have gone through the depots know this, for example, and what remains now is rusted and takes as long to produce as new equipment.
Our sanctions were supposed to strangle Russian new production, especially in high technology – a tank without a sight is a pile of scrap metal wandering around.
In addition, Europe’s arms factories were supposed to be working at full capacity, and Ukraine was supposed to be provided with new capabilities magnitudes above Russia’s, thus winning the war.
Before that, Europe could draw from its huge stockpiles and keep Ukraine afloat.
What happened 😶
Partly, Europe hasn’t stopped anything at all, all imports have just happened through new routes via somewhere else. It has been mentioned countless times that, for example, German exports to Azerbaijan have increased by +5000%, everything has been exposed to Russia, and nothing has changed after +3 years.
Imagine if they had gone after this smuggling like the Swedish Tax Agency chases us honest workers?
And RU has managed to buy even the machines needed to manufacture barrels.
https://defence-blog.com/spanish-firm-supplies-russia-with-machine-for-artillery-production
Europe has also bought Russian oil throughout the war, and we have then bought Russian oil refined in India throughout the war, ensuring that Russia has Western currency for its purchases of all the equipment they have lacked.
We have recently seen the Russian production lines for Geran drones, which are somewhat gigantic, and we also know the number of drones flying into Ukraine per week, and it is many – Ukraine is no longer laughing at Putin’s promises.
I can guarantee you that China has built those production lines and that there are similar ones in China that then send drones labeled as “made in Russia.” A redundancy in case Ukraine is allowed by Europe to target the factories.
Europe has not set a single hard limit for China throughout the war – the EU is currently in China for trade talks, for example 😐
We have seen military production lines in China that look similar for robots and drones but in different models – which leads me to the argument that China has even more capacity, something I have been accused of lying about before when I claimed it. Those who claimed that might need to backtrack now?
The other day we posted videos along with information that China provides 92% of the parts for Russian drones.
Russia has also used drones in large numbers in its operations and a smaller number of robots, presumably targeting high-priority objectives.
Russian robots and drones have good accuracy, as we have seen when they have hit restaurants for meetings and other targets.
Israel has the world’s best LV, and even there, Iranian robots hit their targets, and Israel started running out of ammunition, so you can imagine how it looks in Ukraine when we are constantly scrimping on ammunition for LV.
We also know that Russian robot production has increased significantly, and for example, Iskander is now mass-produced, so Russia is building up large stocks of robots and today may have around 2000 robots available in storage.
Ukraine has previously destroyed arsenals and depots, and in these small fire clouds, robots have undoubtedly been destroyed – how many, we do not know?
Russia is still running the Ukraine war with its inferior equipment, older tanks, mostly drones, fewer robots, NK robots, NK ammunition, and so on.
They have changed tactics to a swarm of shooters where they send the unwanted children first, identify UA positions, drop FAB on them, and send competent shooters under a drone umbrella.
This pivot has made defense costly, I guess, and UA has admitted that they are troubled by FAB, for example.
We have known for a long time that RU has 1st and 2nd class shooters, and they reasonably care for their better units.
Now in 2025, Russia, just like Ukraine, has gained valuable work experience in the organizations, and they have managed to rebuild their training capability after an initial significant dip when even the training battalions were sent to Ukraine and wiped out.
Back to China – I can also bet that China has reviewed Russian production lines for tanks, armored vehicles, IFVs, small-caliber weapons, ammunition, artillery, special aircraft, and high technology.
And that they provide all the equipment and components that are missing, we have long written that North Korea was just a front to get Chinese equipment in, right?
Yes, Ukraine knocks out key production from time to time – for example, the factory for gearboxes for all heavy vehicles burned a few times, much to our delight.
Today in 2025, it is no longer about the removal of wagons but rather about new production, primarily of T90M. Armata seems to have continued existential problems.
T90M shouldn’t be able to be newly manufactured at all since Russia shouldn’t have the technology, but they do.
BMP-3 is also in full production.
Perhaps at least a dozen brigades per year can be equipped with newly manufactured T90M, BMP-3, Ptgb, MRAP, and other heavy vehicles, and we have had this for two years.
Artillery is now also being newly manufactured thanks to the Spanish machines for barrels and shells, costing around +4 million/year?
Thus, Russia is in the process of re-establishing traditional newly manufactured capabilities in its organization while simultaneously waging a high-intensity war in Ukraine and being under full sanctions from the West – and they are Russians.
This shouldn’t actually be possible, suggesting that they have been heavily supported by us in the West and China – but now we are here.
China 🧐
The Ukrainian drone advantage that I was very excited about is quickly eroding. Russia, with China’s help, now uses FPV drones on a large scale, deploying 4000 per day.
Read for yourself
Ukraine’s EW weapons, which effectively blocked the front sectors they were used on, do not work against them.
Today, both sides at the fronts have access to a cloud of FPV drones.
Both sides also have artillery that is almost on par, and Russia has greater access to FAB than Ukraine, magnitudes higher.
Overall, Russia has greater indirect capabilities than Ukraine, especially since Ukraine now has a shortage of 155mm ammunition according to Sirsky.
Ukraine is fighting at a numerical disadvantage of 1:3 according to themselves, and Russia has added 30,000 North Koreans, while the remaining personnel from the 11th AC are on their way or already in place.
You can google the 11th AC – I warned not to laugh at them and, as always, I was right.
Since T90M, BMP-3, and other “better” wagons are rarely knocked out in Ukraine, the only conclusion can be that Russia has built up an offensive reserve, right?
Now they have a few different options for it:
-attack south from Belarus.
-attack into the Baltics.
-attack at existing fronts in Ukraine.
With North Korea’s 11th AC on the way or already in place at the northern front, over 50,000 additional forces are released from the mobile units up there and can be counted into the offensive reserve.
Since Zapad 25 allows Russia to send units to Belarus at least, it is not far-fetched that something will happen before Raspusitza in October.
Starlink was down for 2.5 hours the other day due to a global issue where “tens of thousands” of users had problems – and every terminal in Ukraine 🧐🧐🧐🧐
Ukraine’s entire drone warfare and communication rely on Starlink, and an interruption at the right time would completely undermine them, which has happened before.
For example, during a day of Russian offensive start?
The last time Starlink went down in Ukraine was probably when they were about to sink the Black Sea Fleet, and every time it has happened so far, it has been deliberate.
My guess is that Russia is starting to get things in order thanks to Trump, the USA, Europe, and China.
Furthermore, Trump’s agenda is obvious, and as a nation, the USA does not want to see a major Russian defeat – they have been pushing for that since Obama and under Biden’s ancient leadership.
The problem is that if Russia doesn’t lose, Ukraine does.
Since the fall of 2024, Trump has thrown enough sand in the gears that the damage has already been done – for two months, he tried to remove Zelensky, for example, that bastard, that audacity is hard to accept 😡
I will return with a post about Ukraine and the fronts, but when Sirsky himself asks for permission to target objectives in Russia and they are short of 155mm ammunition – what the hell is Europe actually doing here 😡
We are now pouring funds into the defense industry, but if Ukraine lacks 155mm ammunition, something is very wrong, and unfortunately, I think I know what it is.
Every country in the EU has now fallen into the trap of feeling that Russia is a threat, and now the countries’ defenses are being significantly sharpened.
Russian influence operations in the midst of all this, of course, and the entire weapons industry applauds.
Hungary and Slovakia placed early orders for CV90 and Gripen, for example, just to block, which I pointed out and received a lot of backlash for.
Our weapon factories are running at full capacity, but the weapons are not primarily going to Ukraine, instead, we have become like American hoarders.
Next is that Ukraine’s domestic arms industry is $60 billion short, and money doesn’t come in a day. When we have $500 billion in “frozen Russian assets,” I find it more than incomprehensible 😡
In 2024, I suggested that Ukraine should carry out a spectacular offensive – they, of course, had that plan, but Trump, among others, torpedoed it – Ukraine had the drone advantage, and it was this advantage that allowed them to invade Kursk – drone cloud and EW.
Now, in the summer of 2025, this advantage is nullified 😭
The fact that China has gone “all-in” with Russia was confirmed on May 9th, and we have seen Trump sabotage everything he has managed since the fall of 2024, really.
Europe made a big push during K1 and K2 in 2025 – there was supposed to be a ceasefire and peace, which I urgently warned against and that it was a very bad idea.
Putin thought the same, so he didn’t care – it’s not often we agree.
Since Europe teamed up with Trump for peace in our time, Europe has gone silent, and the situation is likely tense now.
It’s tense because Russia, with China’s help, has sorted out the logistics and, with Trump’s help, managed to keep Europe passive, giving them the time they need to line up for further offensive actions.
Now they are well prepared for further offensives, and they have strategic drones and robots that effectively act as a deterrent to Europe – Europe is starting to get scared and retract its claws even before we unleash them.
Ukraine is back to a situation where Russia has a stunning advantage in indirect capabilities, and they are on the defensive.
How the hell did this happen 😡
How can Europe demand that a country like Ukraine itself should wage war against Trump, Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and a pool of personnel from Africa…
If you skim through the post lightly and have followed this with half interest, you might feel that Johan No.1 is angry again, but throughout this war, I have been angry that Ukraine has been denied the opportunity to defeat Russia – they have been undermined when the decision was close to save Russia.
I have also in a whole war informed you that UA offensives are coming, which they have done, but sometimes the outcome has been a disappointment – like when Trump negotiated away Kursk for example, and before that they choked off the ammunition so there couldn’t be any more offensives.
Unfortunately, we are not there now, I am upset that Europe has torpedoed Ukraine so they are sinking, and if Europe doesn’t watch out, Russia will have significantly advanced its positions before the year is over – significantly.
I am of the opinion that UA must have offensive capability, but I do not know how many losses they have suffered in the past six months, and then everything is always relative, right – if they are losing the drone advantage, it is a very big negative, and if the artillery has fallen silent, it is a catastrophe.
We are well on our way to Ukraine retreating to its defense line outside the area Putin has declared as his, and then Putin will declare a ceasefire.
McDonald’s Gandhi will strike like a hissing spitting cobra at that, and Europe will immediately breathe a collective sigh of relief that peace has finally been achieved in our time.
Then the problems really begin for us in Europe, even if Ukraine may get a respite.
If we end up in this situation, we will have reached Chamberlain’s paper waving after this epic Ukrainian sacrifice that we in Europe have categorically refused to acknowledge so far.
The question is what is good for Ukraine – maybe it is necessary for Europe to get involved in this?
For us in Europe, what we are heading towards is a disaster – just start getting familiar with AK4, I’m just saying.
For the USA, it’s probably not so bad – Europe is back under the US boot 😡
If you see something that I don’t, please feel free to let me know because right now it’s pretty dark on the substitute bench, and it’s also getting pretty dark for many intelligence analysts, so unfortunately, I’m in good company…
There is a high risk that our leaders in Europe do not understand what they are causing and neither the effect, but we can always hope that something happens at 11:59…
So far, I had expected a devastating Ukrainian strategic bombing campaign against the most high-value targets and offensive operations. I thought I had calculated that Ukraine had offensive capacity and that Europe had sent a lot of material, but I may have underestimated what Ukraine has received – they are complaining about a lack of material.
Instead, it is Russian offensive, Russian strategic bombing, a Europe that has fallen silent, and a Zapad25 in a month.
If you liked the post – please share it in your channels, and most importantly, feel free to share the English version with people you think might appreciate posts and comments they have not been able to read before. https://johanno1.se/en/
Continued appreciation for the site is always gratefully received, and there is a QR code for that purpose, as well as a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.
On Substack – there is still a chance to become subscribers and it is valuable to me.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
ADS
As you have probably noticed, we now have ads on the site. The ads and their placement are managed by Google, which also tries to optimize it automatically. We will let it run for a few weeks to see where it ends up. Some placements feel quite large, but it might get better.
We will then post a survey to hear what you think, if there are too many ads, if there are certain placements that are particularly annoying, etc. so we can make any adjustments after that.
Russian losses:
SLAVA UKRAINI
AFU: In total, during the past day, 158 fighting were recorded. According to the information, the zagarbniki made 86 aviation strikes, dropped 132 controlled aviation bombs. In addition, the Russians engaged 4,413 kamikaze drones and carried out 5,960 artillery shelling at the positions of our troops and settlements, including 85 from reactive systems of arson fire.
As you can see, they used slightly more artillery shells than usual (the current average is 5585). At the same time, the loss of artillery pieces was only four.
Trump has not needed to engage in direct confrontation with Ukraine’s case. Instead, he has built in systemic instability:
– Confusing signals to allies
– Impaired access to weapons and support
– Division within NATO
– Weakening of democratic ideals
All of this gives Putin annoying time gains, territorial advantages, and propaganda points.
china acts more discreetly: they cheat economically, circumvent sanctions, and enable putin’s wars through technology and trade without openly dirtying their hands.
Two different methods, but the same goal: to weaken the west and democracy.
Conclusion: Johan No1 has control in the chaos!
Yes, unfortunately he has caused trouble in several ways and none of it has benefited Ukraine.
A thought on the new 15% tariffs and Ukraine!
The EU, built on peaceful ideals, seems time and time again to bend when faced with threats. They want to avoid conflict, even when it would require standing up for the principles of the rule of law, academic freedom, or human rights.
And peace without principles is not peace, it is surrender.
Agree, sometimes you have to be tough.
Something like what we did during WW2, you think?
Something like WW2 you’re thinking?
Thank you for shedding light on how skewed it looks right now. Because Europe is indeed pouring funds into its defense industry. But as initially when Russia fully engaged in Ukraine, the weapons are most effective on the front lines in Ukraine. Or for that matter on a front line inside Russia. For their own security. However, it is positive that production is happening and the Geran lines and other lines in Russia and China must be met with significantly larger production in Europe/West.
The question here is how economically dependent is China on Europe? We know that the USA is trying to reduce trade with China. What would happen if China is left with only its own markets, an economically weakened Russia, Asia, and a certainly rising Africa?
In other words, if the EU takes a tough stance against China, and China has to choose between economic cooperation or continuing weapon production for Russia.
There has been little noise from the leaders in Europe, Merz, Kallas, von der Leyen, Macron.
Europe does not seem to understand the seriousness at all, and despite statements that they will do everything for Ukraine even if the US withdraws its support, nothing has happened at all.
Instead, it seems that they have been paralyzed after Trump stabbed us and Ukraine in the back.
The US has not only abandoned Ukraine, they demand that Europe buy weapons from the US, and in addition, we and large parts of the world are affected by idiotic tariffs. Except for Russia, of course, they avoid tariffs and not many sanctions. When the US, which has been a stable partner in the war, suddenly does everything to work against us, it may not be surprising that the air goes out of the balloon.
Now, a half-baked tariff agreement seems to be in place, not good, but it could have been worse. Hopefully, we will have a more stable situation when we finally know what applies, and maybe the focus will return to Ukraine.
Regardless, Europe should have invested much more heavily from the beginning, it could have been settled in the fall of 2022 or the spring of 2023. It wasn’t until February 2023 that heavier support with tanks, etc. was promised, but it took over a year before everything was in place. Ukraine got enough to dare to launch an offensive in the summer of 2023, but it was far from enough to gain a real advantage.
The scenario that Ukraine will retreat until Russia has received its four oblasts and then there will be peace is not impossible at all. However, it is probably a long way off before we get there. If they are to take the entire Kherson oblast, for example, they must cross the Dnipro. Of course, it can happen quickly, we saw that in the other direction in the fall of 2022 when Ukraine liberated large areas.
If Zelensky fails to calm the population down regarding anti-corruption, there is a great risk that the fighting spirit will decrease. The Russians are, of course, pushing as much as they can, but the strange thing is that even the newspapers in Ukraine are pushing even harder. Perhaps war fatigue has made people frustrated and eager to find someone to blame. Personally, one does not think it is the right time for internal strife. Or maybe the problem is bigger than we understand. In any case, it must be resolved, if the population splits and gets rid of Zelenskyy, we do not know what will come instead.
But what should Europe do then?
1. As you have suggested, take the frozen Russian money and give it to Ukraine.
2. Stop all restrictions and ensure that Ukraine gets what is needed to strike deep. Taurus was practically promised to be delivered, but it never happened.
3. Expose Putin’s bluff and ensure that forces are sent into Ukraine. To begin with, it is enough for them to help with border surveillance against Belarus. It would be quite appropriate to have it in place for ZAPAD 2025.
4. Continue to accelerate the production of defense material, and send a larger portion to Ukraine instead of building our own stockpiles. It does the most good there.
What more can we do?
Your last question – not a damn thing for Russia has us in a stranglehold with Geran and 2000 robots + an offensive reserve with T90M and BMP3.
What Europe will do is rejoice for three days at peace in our time soon.
50 days was too short but will come during the autumn.
Remember the next phase – a million betrayed Ukrainian soldiers are making a career out in Europe 😐
These are not guesses – why do you think the EU has become deathly silent while Russia shows its production lines and runs 500 Geran per night over Ukraine.
If nothing is done, they will come here in the end – something we have warned about for three years.
It seems that one or more of the advertisers are having issues with their ad providers. Not sure if any of you are affected since the ads are individual, but if the page is slow and you receive messages about timeouts or similar, you can try to refresh and hopefully you will see other ads that are not having issues.
Hmm, I just discovered that when the page gets stuck because of the ads (the page is loading and loading but never finishes) the “Click to edit” doesn’t appear either, it seems like the script is being blocked or maybe it just never reaches it.
Very excessively dense with advertising that somewhat spoils the experience…
Yes, I agree. Waiting for the optimization to be completed, as it’s best not to touch it before then. But it’s just too much now.
Then it experiments, so sometimes it’s more and sometimes a bit less.
We might as well let it go for a month? so far worthless. maybe push for a swish-push at the end of each month because I think everyone would pay a hundred to get rid of the ads 😀 Also think everyone understands that costs need to be covered for the site and the various tools.
According to Google Adsense, there are 21 days left in the evaluation.
😶
We could then conduct a survey to see if people would like to donate once a month at the end of the month in exchange for this miracle of advertising disappearing?
We can test it. If it works for 21 days, we’ll see.
Everyone might have gotten tired and installed Adblockers by then.. 😄
Are they practicing for ZAPAD 2025?
“❗️A UAV from 🇧🇾Belarus has again flown into 🇱🇹Lithuania, it was spotted near the capital Vilnius. The type of UAV has not been determined, writes LRT. In terms of sound and visuals, the drone most closely resembles the Russian Gerbera UAV, which imitates Shahed.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3luz2nv7awc2u
Do they mean Geran?
Well, it must be that, of course.
“❗️During the night, 🇺🇦Ukrainian military shot down 311/331 🇷🇺Russian air targets
Shot down:
309/324 Shahed drones
2/4 Kh-101 cruise missiles
0/3 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
The Ukrainian Air Force adds that the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles did not reach their targets.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3luz2hypxx22u
jari is on-point as usual.
Calling Trump a babbling idiot only makes babbling idiots, because Trump has been driving nail after nail into Ukraine’s coffin in a cloud of disinformation.
Today’s post was written last Friday and since then the EU has traveled to China without a reception committee – a bus driver pointed to the tourist bus to the hotel and an intern sat picking their nose during a very brief meeting.
From what I have learned about China since 2006, they consider us under them now.
Then Trump gave us a worthless trade agreement but everyone is trying to spin it positively.
Dig a little into the export of important raw materials to us, that’s a hot tip.
Last winter, some were pushing the line that the EU had secret plans with Ukraine when all I saw was apathy and arrogance – it’s time to bring them out now.
I sometimes think that the future lies in Asia. I have visited China and several countries in Southeast Asia. Unfortunately, it seems like the Western world has had its time. Multiculturalism has ruined the entire Western project. Cracks are starting to show. Asia has a monoculture. It is better and female participation in the workforce is natural there without either feminism or gender power structures. So it’s not just about China. Also consider Japan, South Korea, and countries like India in the balance.
I always receive an incredible amount of disrespect when I write that China’s production of military equipment is huge and of high quality – I believe we will learn the hard way soon.
I have seen CHEC evolve from 2006 until today and I guess the military side has made the same journey.
So we’re going to call Trump an idiot but what he’s doing is far from idiotic and has severely damaged Ukraine.
In January, Macron, Stamer, and Merz stood up – a quick check here, are they still standing or have they sat down 🧐
Those who now blame everything on Trump are making it easy for themselves.
Do we in Europe have no responsibility at all?
It’s us who will be left dealing with the consequences.
The USA is probably quite satisfied now, we will soon be crawling back under their boot. We can guess that it is one of their strategic goals.
Imagine how strong we have become with a collapsed Russia and a Ukraine that belongs to us 😬
I think what he is doing is quite idiotic (unless, of course, he loves Putin and wants to do everything he can to get closer to Russia, then everything makes sense).
If he wants to challenge China, it would have been much better if he had cooperated with the EU. It will only be more beneficial to trade with China and others than the USA, a USA that we have now lost confidence in.
The EU is not as strong as the USA, but we are not very far behind after all.
Now you might think that the USA wants to crush the EU, but an EU with a weakened economy is unlikely to benefit the USA this time. He rather wants us to buy expensively from the USA.
Just as we have now realized that the USA is not reliable when it comes to our security, we have also realized that they are not reliable when it comes to trade.
No, I don’t think Trump wants to crush the EU.
However, I believe Trump wants to bring the EU back under US control as during the Cold War.
A pretty hair-thin definition there and I am always very clear about how I phrase things.
How does it look right now?
-Europe afraid of Russia
-USA new trade agreement with the EU where they can sell everything they want to us (previously high tariffs against the USA on a little bit of everything), 0% tariffs for them and 15% for us.
-China told us to go to hell.
Then you have a big problem we haven’t quite reached yet – EU IMPORTS 100% of important raw materials for production and we have maybe 50% self-sufficiency in food at best?
If China were to decide to choke off sea transport, we would become even more dependent on the USA 😀
The EU is like Spain during the South American gold rush just as the gold starts to run out.
I wouldn’t claim that China asked us to go to hell, but they certainly won’t hesitate to blackmail us if it benefits them. And of course, it does.
Where do you find figures stating that we would import 50% of our food needs?
It’s only about 10-15% of the food consumed in the EU that is imported.
Mostly fruits, coffee, and cocoa, but also tomatoes, bell peppers, and some other vegetables in winter, as well as fish (such as tuna) + some vegetable oils, etc.
We export approximately as much as we import, but of course, other things like wine, cheese, pork, and cereals.
If we isolated ourselves, we wouldn’t need to starve; we would drink more wine instead of coffee, eat cheese instead of chocolate, more pork instead of fish.
Of course, if we were bombed, it would be a different story.
When it comes to raw materials for our industry, you are closer to the truth even though closer to 100% only applies to a few raw materials like lithium, rare earth metals, and fertilizers.
But there are many critical raw materials where we import between 60-90%.
Unfortunately, it was realized a bit late, only in 2023 did the Critical Raw Materials Act come into effect with the aim of reducing our dependency.
https://single-market-economy.ec.europa.eu/sectors/raw-materials/areas-specific-interest/critical-raw-materials/critical-raw-materials-act_en
It is mainly within the energy transition and the automotive industry (mainly electric cars) that much of it is critical. First of all, there are many here who don’t want to see it happen, so maybe it’s all the same.. 😉
But in this aspect, we are not dependent on the USA, but on China and to some extent the Congo (although China is also involved there). The USA doesn’t have much to offer in this segment.
Australia, Canada, and Chile are countries we are trying to increase imports from to break unilateral dependence.
Anyway, according to you, is the EU doomed then?
Are you soon going to offer us to invest in your farm in Africa? 😂
Well, okay I extrapolated that Sweden’s self-sufficiency rate was 50% and guessed that as an agricultural country we were doing well in the EU.
Have now googled and we are not doing well at all in the EU.
You are absolutely right, sloppy 👍👍👍
Jo Wagner is also in Congo if you’re wondering 😀
I think I saw something about them starting to establish themselves in Uganda as well.
Europe is led by technocrats and economists. Can Ursula von der Leyen be present when Europe’s fate is decided? She embodies the arrogant technocracy that governs Europe. Yes, it is an elite along with other media and financial elites. Unfortunately, I also consider Merz to belong to this group. At home, we have our Ulf Kristersson. No wonder nothing is happening. What the rulebook says must be considered first. Yes, Europe is sitting on its hands.
So we’re going to call Trump an idiot but what he’s doing is far from idiotic and has severely damaged Ukraine.
In January, Macron, Starmer, and Merz stood up – quick check here, are they still standing or have they sat down 🧐
Those who now blame everything on Trump are taking the easy way out.
Do we in Europe have no responsibility at all?
It’s us who will have to deal with the consequences.
The USA is probably quite pleased now, we will soon be crawling back under their boot. We can guess that it’s one of their strategic goals.
Imagine how strong we would become with a collapsed Russia and a Ukraine that belongs to us 😬
Drones2Ukraine will be shutting down its operations, among other things, because Ukraine’s needs for drones and drone training have changed, but before that, they aim to deliver a mine-clearing UGV to Ukraine. Their Swish (123 205 07 14) will be open until August 15th.
Help them make a final effort!
https://www.drones2ukraine.se/
Their QR code:
Thank you for your support for more fire in the goal!
I’m sitting and watching a lot of programs about World War II to prepare myself mentally, and one thing strikes me – the whole of Europe lay flat, and then the USA and UK had to sacrifice a hell of a lot of lives and money to liberate Europe.
Germany had killed, wounded, or captured 2 million soldiers within a few months, and yet the UK managed the feat of saving most Britons.
Since shooting with personal weapons and some armor-piercing (which existed) is no different today than in 1939, and fighting in urban areas is equally difficult, it all went surprisingly fast.
Those who fought like lions were Russia, Finland, Germany, and Japan, even though Germany and Japan fought on the wrong side 😀
The Italians were bolognese soldiers to the fingertips, of course.
But what logistics and war material production – good Lord, and what a dream for manufacturers, an endless list of orders.
Better than post-1990 when everything was supposed to be disarmed and they died of the black death,
If the USA plays this right and it just turns into a cold war and all resources are cut off to Europe + fuel + food, then they have a highway of EUR to drive on with their new trade agreement.
Have you thought about the fact that now only Canada is left to tell the USA to go to hell 😀
They made the mistake I made in school – “hello, I’ve heard that you are not satisfied with me as a teacher, anyone who feels that way can stand up”.
Since we had a class meeting and decided to address the issue, and I have poor impulse control, I stood up, but the teacher had a comeback – “oh, the only one in this class who is worth something is Johan, the rest of you should be ashamed”.
Canada wasn’t as lucky, and I wonder how Carney is feeling right now when Trump just said that he won’t care about any agreement with them and the tariffs are sky-high starting from Friday.
China will probably get an extension 😀
Go Canada!
The EU should also stand up!
Hot tip – Within two years, Pakistan and Cambodia will have a defense force trained and equipped by China that surpasses that of the neighboring countries.
We should probably look at which other countries are included in China’s sphere here and will be equipped.
This is how China will counterbalance EU and USA boycotts – selling weapons to these countries instead and equipping the BRICS.
😂 Good luck!
“The head of Roscosmos promised to create a rocket “like Musk’s” in two years. “Roscosmos” signed a technical assignment to create a rocket “like Musk’s” (with a reusable stage) in June 2025, said the CEO of the state corporation Dmitry Bakanov.”
https://bsky.app/profile/beefeaterfella.bsky.social/post/3luz6f5miqc2f
👍
“Hackers have reportedly destroyed the entire IT infrastructure of Russia’s Aeroflot in a year-long cyber operation. All critical systems—from databases to internal mail and executive communications—were breached. Around 7,000 servers were wiped and over 20TB of data stolen.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3luz4edndpk2u
“The US may cut military presence in Europe by up to one-third, Politico writes. Washington is reviewing its global force deployment, with a final report expected by September. A NATO official reportedly said the number of US troops in Europe—currently around 90,000–100,000—could be reduced by 30%.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3luz44gslg22u
What did I write in case A the other day 🧐
ZAPAD 2025
Belarus announced that they would conduct the exercises further from the border because it had created tensions.
Now they have changed their minds, partly because Poland is planning to conduct exercises at the division level near the border, and Lithuania is also planning to move a brigade closer to the border.
So they are not completely unprepared for ZAPAD 2025.
“Belarus signaled on July 23 that it could reverse its earlier decision to move the Zapad-2025 military drills inland, citing what it called escalating military activity by Poland and Lithuania near its borders.
“Poland has announced that it is ready to conduct divisional-scale exercises near our borders near Grodno, the Bialowieza Forest. Lithuania is transferring the Iron Wolf brigade to the Pabrade training ground,” he said.
“Under these conditions, we reserve the right to make a decision and move our individual units during the exercises to work out episodes of an exclusively defensive nature.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3luz44gslg22u
Unexpected 🤣🤣
Do you remember when we always met Russian naval exercises in the Baltic Sea with our own exercises?
Why don’t we do that anymore?
In May, the Russians had a major naval exercise, followed by our Baltops in June.
Now in July, the Russians have a major naval exercise in the Baltic Sea without us having a counter-exercise?
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-carrying-out-largest-ever-naval-exercises-with-one-big-omission-ps
By 2025, they have thus introduced a normal situation where the Baltic Fleet is out and about, and during Zapad 25 it will be tested again.
The point I want to make is that the West doesn’t seem to be responding – or am I wrong?
I’m looking at this and in 2024 they also had a major exercise,
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/sverige/rysslands-storovning-360-grader-runt-sverige/
And this year a total of three major exercises for the Baltic Fleet if we include Zapad25?
On the Navy Day last year, it was apparently also scaled down but then the exercise was the reason.
Under kalla kriget var ett scenario att Sovjet skulle dyka upp med en mindre ubåt i strömmen utanför Rosenbad i Stockholm (inte igenom slussarna i Strömmen för er som kan era vatten utan dom stannar såklart innan) och sen ringa till regeringen.
“hej, vi har en ubåt med kärnvapen utanför Rosenbad, om ni inte kapitulerar kommer vi spränga den – ni har dagen på er att bestämma er”.
Då under kalla kriget fanns det väl vettige politiker kvar men tänk er ångesten hos dagens politiker att tvingas välja – speciellt när deras egna familjer finns inom utplåna-radien.
Östersjöflottan känns lite samma sak om temperaturen ökar – “hej EU ni vet vår flotta + ett par större bestar från norra flottan som ligger utanför Polens kust, vi har alla robotar riktade mot alla stora städer i Europa”
“ert val om ni vill lägga er i vår picknick i Baltikum för fartygscheferna har dålig impulskontroll, meddela oss i eftermiddag hur ni vill ha det och ja, robotluckorna är redan öppna om ni undrar”.
Thank you
I mean thank you 😶
Hey MXT – what is “reactive systems of arson fire”?
RU shot a lot of that, is it thermobaric weapons?
Ah, sorry, I was lazy, just pasted from FB, their translation is crappy.
These are the old “Stalin organs” = MLRS, although they also include thermobaric weapons like TOS, but it’s not often you see them anymore. They have a short range.
The average has decreased quite a bit since March, right now the seven-day average is 77 so 85 is not unusually high. Around New Year’s, the seven-day average was 200.
Got a little worried there 😀
They have thermobaric FAB but they are probably more rare than so far.
We can only hope that we won’t see anything resembling Dresden.
If you haven’t understood it yet, what is currently happening is as follows –
-China has, through Russia, shown that Russia has an indirect capability we cannot match, long-range drones and then 4000 FPV drones per day. This advantage has an expiration date that may be a year or less, Ukraine got about 8 months when their whack-a-mole peaked?
-Trump has shown us that he has a trade agreement stranglehold and then will not help Europe in case of war.
-Russia has shown that they can advance in Ukraine.
-China told the EU to go to hell the other day.
Do you hear Merz, Starmer, and Macron commenting on Ukraine or the Baltics right now?
The attempt being made now is to persuade the EU to retract its claws even before we have deployed them and that in the event of a conflict with the Baltics, we should not respond.
Whether it works or not is secondary right now, but the fact that this is what Russia and Trump are up to should keep all our elected officials sleepless.
Because why are they doing it, that is the question?
You saw that RU has advanced +4km just north of the Kreminna forests/Zerebryansky forest?
Were some highlights from Russian accounts and now watching Deep State, had missed.
Customs
Orbán was quite funny here.
“The announcement that the EU has reached a trade agreement on 15 percent tariffs with the USA is met with mixed reactions in Europe, several international media outlets report.
“It is a dark day when an alliance of free nations, created to safeguard common values and interests, chooses to give in to pressure,” writes French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou on X.
“Unbalanced,” calls the agreement France’s European Minister Benjamin Haddad and accuses Trump of “economic pressure.”
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán argues that the tariff agreement is worse than the one the UK has made with the USA. – Donald Trump didn’t make a deal with Ursula von der Leyen, but Donald Trump ate Ursula von der Leyen for breakfast,” he says in a live broadcast on Facebook.”
https://omni.se/reaktioner-pa-avtalet-mork-dag-nar-trump-at-von-der-leyen-till-frukost/a/4BPVnE
Customs and Sweden
“The Americans will end up paying the price for the American import duties on European goods. This is according to SEB’s senior economist Robert Bergqvist in an interview with GP. However, in the long run, the duties may lead to a decrease in demand for Swedish export goods, which could affect Sweden’s economy.
He also highlights the strong crown as part of the dilemma. Since the turn of the year, the crown has strengthened by 15 percent against the dollar. Together with the 15 percent duties, Swedish competitiveness has deteriorated by 30 percent this year.
– It’s good that the crown is regaining its value, but the timing is not optimal.”
https://omni.se/konkurrenskraft-minskat-med-30-procent-inte-optimalt/a/3MnolL
If I’m going to be honest, I just want one thing – for the dollar to go up again because I’ve lost 10% 😭
Anything that strengthens the dollar gets my praise.
Now that you are pushing the doctrine of loss hard, where both Europe and Ukraine will soon fall, I wonder if you are not getting paid in rubles? 🧐
😂
Weather
Help, Polish Karl-Heinz is coming!
Hope it won’t be so bad, not fun with a flooded basement. I know.
It’s been a mixed summer so far with lots of sun and high temperatures but also heavy downpours here and there even though it hasn’t been as wet as warned.
“SMHI has issued an orange warning for heavy rainfall on Tuesday, the authority writes.
The warning applies to large parts of the southern Norrland coast from 04.00 to 23.00. In some places, it could rain up to 100 millimeters and there are expected to be problems with flooding.
The Polish low-pressure system Karl-Heinz, which is heading towards the Swedish east coast, is expected to hit on Tuesday, Expressen writes. In Poland, it has caused major problems with hundreds of alarms and 2,000 households losing power.”
https://omni.se/smhi-utfardar-orange-varning-for-skyfall/a/dRVj3A
This sounds extremely dangerous 😶
Is it humor from the Poles who baptize a storm with a German name?
That’s what we should do, for example, name the storm Johaug.
😂
Read the posts a bit late today. As usual, very well written Johan No.1. But I wonder if you have any source for this “as the Tax Agency is chasing us honest employees”? Because the Tax Agency has high trust among the population.
Better late than never!
Johan surely considers himself to be honest even though the tax authorities are chasing him.. 😂
So true, so true
It usually doesn’t become life-threatening unless a road collapses. But if I remember correctly, the truck driver of this rig stayed put and waited a little too long, and easily panicked before finally getting out.
We got 150mm in a few hours that time.
Would certainly fall under Johan’s life-threatening.